STLtoday.com

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:06 pm

icon wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 09:42 am And his bat is way better than OzzIe's was at his age.

True

But even w/superior power (Ozzie had none), I'm not sure Winn is that much better an offensive player than 23 year old Ozzie:

Ozzie age 23 season
.258 BA
.311 OB%
46 RBI's
40 SB's


Winn age 23 season and counting
.269 BA
.325 OB%
34 RBI's
6 SB's

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 07:12 am Makes Winn expendable in a trade

craviduce wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:22 pm Winn's on pace for near 4 WAR campaign.

Maybe it's just me, but building around a Middle Infield of Winn AND Wetherholt would be the more prudent play.

Still...kick the tires, see what a team or two would offer for Winn at the Winter Meetings....but in no way, if I were the GM, would I be thinking Wetherholt makes Winn expendable when 2B is open for the taking

craviduce wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:22 pm Winn's on pace for near 4 WAR campaign.

Maybe it's just me, but building around a Middle Infield of Winn AND Wetherholt would be the more prudent play.

Still...kick the tires, see what a team or two would offer for Winn at the Winter Meetings....but in no way, if I were the GM, would I be thinking Wetherholt makes Winn expendable when 2B is open for the taking

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:12 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:06 pm

icon wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 09:42 am And his bat is way better than OzzIe's was at his age.

True

But even w/superior power (Ozzie had none), I'm not sure Winn is that much better an offensive player than 23 year old Ozzie:

Ozzie age 23 season
.258 BA
.311 OB%
46 RBI's
40 SB's


Winn age 23 season and counting
.269 BA
.325 OB%
34 RBI's
6 SB's

Through Ozzie’s first 2 years he had a career .575 OPS and 65 OPS+. Winn through his first 2 years (even including 2023), he has a .693 OPS/93 OPS+. He’s clearly way better. And the last 2 years Winn’s OPS+ is at least 100 both years. It wasn’t until Ozzie’s 8th year that he had a season with a 100+ OPS+.

Since you’ve started the trade Winn campaign he’s hitting like .429. So keep it up

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:13 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 07:12 am Makes Winn expendable in a trade

I like this.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:29 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:12 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:06 pm

icon wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 09:42 am And his bat is way better than OzzIe's was at his age.

True

But even w/superior power (Ozzie had none), I'm not sure Winn is that much better an offensive player than 23 year old Ozzie:

Ozzie age 23 season
.258 BA
.311 OB%
46 RBI's
40 SB's


Winn age 23 season and counting
.269 BA
.325 OB%
34 RBI's
6 SB's

Through Ozzie’s first 2 years he had a career .575 OPS and 65 OPS+. Winn through his first 2 years (even including 2023), he has a .693 OPS/93 OPS+. He’s clearly way better. And the last 2 years Winn’s OPS+ is at least 100 both years. It wasn’t until Ozzie’s 8th year that he had a season with a 100+ OPS+.

Since you’ve started the trade Winn campaign he’s hitting like .429. So keep it up

By OPS, sure and why I said "even w/superior power".

But you're discounting Ozzie's massive advantage in SB's that set up Padres runs.

In their age 23 years, Winn isn't that much better an offensive player.

There you go again, I hope Winn hits .500 the rest of the year.

Should I post to you when he hits the skids like he did last season when he melted in the St. Louis heat?

Adding him to a deal to get a great young hitting OF'er isn't the crime you act like it is.

JDW wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:24 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:22 pm Winn's on pace for near 4 WAR campaign.

Maybe it's just me, but building around a Middle Infield of Winn AND Wetherholt would be the more prudent play.

Still...kick the tires, see what a team or two would offer for Winn at the Winter Meetings....but in no way, if I were the GM, would I be thinking Wetherholt makes Winn expendable when 2B is open for the taking

I agree, and btw, I think you have said something along the lines that JJW's arm is a bit suspect at 3B.
If I got that right could you elaborate a little about that?

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:42 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:29 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:12 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:06 pm

icon wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 09:42 am And his bat is way better than OzzIe's was at his age.

True

But even w/superior power (Ozzie had none), I'm not sure Winn is that much better an offensive player than 23 year old Ozzie:

Ozzie age 23 season
.258 BA
.311 OB%
46 RBI's
40 SB's


Winn age 23 season and counting
.269 BA
.325 OB%
34 RBI's
6 SB's

Through Ozzie’s first 2 years he had a career .575 OPS and 65 OPS+. Winn through his first 2 years (even including 2023), he has a .693 OPS/93 OPS+. He’s clearly way better. And the last 2 years Winn’s OPS+ is at least 100 both years. It wasn’t until Ozzie’s 8th year that he had a season with a 100+ OPS+.

Since you’ve started the trade Winn campaign he’s hitting like .429. So keep it up

By OPS, sure and why I said "even w/superior power".

But you're discounting Ozzie's massive advantage in SB's that set up Padres runs.

In their age 23 years, Winn isn't that much better an offensive player.

There you go again, I hope Winn hits .500 the rest of the year.

Should I post to you when he hits the skids like he did last season when he melted in the St. Louis heat?

Adding him to a deal to get a great young hitting OF'er isn't the crime you act like it is.

Those SBs aren’t making up for the hitter that Ozzie was. He scored 146 runs those 2 years and his fWAR was 3.4 in the 2 years combined. Winn is at 142 runs the last 2 years and we still have 2 more months to go. And he’s at 6.6 fWAR since the start of last year, again with 2 more months to go.

When you find a great young hitting OFer let me know. I’m not sure I would consider a guy that has a .761 OPS and has walked only 49 times in 843 PAs as a “great” young hitting OFer.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:49 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:42 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:29 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:12 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:06 pm

icon wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 09:42 am And his bat is way better than OzzIe's was at his age.

True

But even w/superior power (Ozzie had none), I'm not sure Winn is that much better an offensive player than 23 year old Ozzie:

Ozzie age 23 season
.258 BA
.311 OB%
46 RBI's
40 SB's


Winn age 23 season and counting
.269 BA
.325 OB%
34 RBI's
6 SB's

Through Ozzie’s first 2 years he had a career .575 OPS and 65 OPS+. Winn through his first 2 years (even including 2023), he has a .693 OPS/93 OPS+. He’s clearly way better. And the last 2 years Winn’s OPS+ is at least 100 both years. It wasn’t until Ozzie’s 8th year that he had a season with a 100+ OPS+.

Since you’ve started the trade Winn campaign he’s hitting like .429. So keep it up

By OPS, sure and why I said "even w/superior power".

But you're discounting Ozzie's massive advantage in SB's that set up Padres runs.

In their age 23 years, Winn isn't that much better an offensive player.

There you go again, I hope Winn hits .500 the rest of the year.

Should I post to you when he hits the skids like he did last season when he melted in the St. Louis heat?

Adding him to a deal to get a great young hitting OF'er isn't the crime you act like it is.

Those SBs aren’t making up for the hitter that Ozzie was. He scored 146 runs those 2 years and his fWAR was 3.4 in the 2 years combined. Winn is at 142 runs the last 2 years and we still have 2 more months to go. And he’s at 6.6 fWAR since the start of last year, again with 2 more months to go.

When you find a great young hitting OFer let me know. I’m not sure I would consider a guy that has a .761 OPS and has walked only 49 times in 843 PAs as a “great” young hitting OFer.

You're using Ozzie's 23 and 24 year old season, this discussion is about Ozzie/Winn's age 23 season.

Ozzie posted a 3.3 bWar in his age 23 season, Winn is sitting at 2.4 bWAR that could rise, fall or stay the same.

I'd still take 23 year old Ozzie over Winn, wouldn't you?

And your discounting A. Pages is a JOKE, go look at the comp to PCA and both their rookie years and second seasons.

Winn isn't the superstar you act like he is, he's an all glove (of course nowhere near Ozzie level) average at best offensive player who can't steal a base.

Bet you a cold he he NEVER even makes one all-star team.

craviduce wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:45 pm

JDW wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:24 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:22 pm Winn's on pace for near 4 WAR campaign.

Maybe it's just me, but building around a Middle Infield of Winn AND Wetherholt would be the more prudent play.

Still...kick the tires, see what a team or two would offer for Winn at the Winter Meetings....but in no way, if I were the GM, would I be thinking Wetherholt makes Winn expendable when 2B is open for the taking

I agree, and btw, I think you have said something along the lines that JJW's arm is a bit suspect at 3B.
If I got that right could you elaborate a little about that?

Saggese's arm is suspect at 3B, and SS. JJ can play 3B, he did as freshman in 2022. His arm is avg at 3B. His footwork is good. We can expect a game or two a week at 3B in Memphis going forward...at least I hope so. Give him options. He handled the SS/2B duty at Springfield without a problem. Moving around it the infield won't hinder him.

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 13:04 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:49 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:42 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:29 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:12 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:06 pm

icon wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 09:42 am And his bat is way better than OzzIe's was at his age.

True

But even w/superior power (Ozzie had none), I'm not sure Winn is that much better an offensive player than 23 year old Ozzie:

Ozzie age 23 season
.258 BA
.311 OB%
46 RBI's
40 SB's


Winn age 23 season and counting
.269 BA
.325 OB%
34 RBI's
6 SB's

Through Ozzie’s first 2 years he had a career .575 OPS and 65 OPS+. Winn through his first 2 years (even including 2023), he has a .693 OPS/93 OPS+. He’s clearly way better. And the last 2 years Winn’s OPS+ is at least 100 both years. It wasn’t until Ozzie’s 8th year that he had a season with a 100+ OPS+.

Since you’ve started the trade Winn campaign he’s hitting like .429. So keep it up

By OPS, sure and why I said "even w/superior power".

But you're discounting Ozzie's massive advantage in SB's that set up Padres runs.

In their age 23 years, Winn isn't that much better an offensive player.

There you go again, I hope Winn hits .500 the rest of the year.

Should I post to you when he hits the skids like he did last season when he melted in the St. Louis heat?

Adding him to a deal to get a great young hitting OF'er isn't the crime you act like it is.

Those SBs aren’t making up for the hitter that Ozzie was. He scored 146 runs those 2 years and his fWAR was 3.4 in the 2 years combined. Winn is at 142 runs the last 2 years and we still have 2 more months to go. And he’s at 6.6 fWAR since the start of last year, again with 2 more months to go.

When you find a great young hitting OFer let me know. I’m not sure I would consider a guy that has a .761 OPS and has walked only 49 times in 843 PAs as a “great” young hitting OFer.

You're using Ozzie's 23 and 24 year old season, this discussion is about Ozzie/Winn's age 23 season.

Ozzie posted a 3.3 bWar in his age 23 season, Winn is sitting at 2.4 bWAR that could rise, fall or stay the same.

I'd still take 23 year old Ozzie over Winn, wouldn't you?

And your discounting A. Pages is a JOKE, go look at the comp to PCA and both their rookie years and second seasons.

Winn isn't the superstar you act like he is, he's an all glove (of course nowhere near Ozzie level) average at best offensive player who can't steal a base.

Bet you a cold he he NEVER even makes one all-star team.

Offensively I would take Winn, defensively of course Ozzie. I would still put Winn in the Renteria comp at the same age offensively.

Renteria
Age 22: .275/.334/.400 36 2B 11 HR 63 RBI 92 R

Age 23 season through 103 games: .274/.336/.417 18 2B 12 HR 45 RBI 68 R 428 PA


Winn
Age 22: .267/.314/.416 32 2B 15 HR 57 RBI 85 R

Age 23 season through 103 games: .269/.325/.386 20 2B 7 HR 34 RBI 57 R 383 PA

As for the heat, hopefully he’s conditioned for it better now that he’s a 2nd year player. August was his best month last season, he had an .814 OPS. Hopefully he repeats that and has a better September.

Pages doesn’t have the steals that PCA has. And I still hold the same reservations over PCA being a great hitter over the long haul. It’s extremely difficult to be a great hitter for an extended period of time when you’re walking less than 5%. And it makes you prone to some ugly months whereas disciplined hitters can generally get put up decent months even when the hits aren’t falling as much.

rbirules wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:38 pm

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:13 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 07:12 am Makes Winn expendable in a trade

I like this.

What do you like about it?

Note: I'm firmly in the camp that nobody is ever off limits, any player can be moved at any time for the right trade. That being said, Winn is young, cost controlled, plays a premium position, and isn't even in his prime yet. Maybe Wetherholt can stick at SS in the majors. But we still need a 2B, which is another premium position. Does Gorman stick there? Does he even hit enough to warrant being a regular starter (he could also move to 1B or 3B if we could move some veterans). You also have Donovan (who can move around) but he's a FA soon and would also bring a nice haul in a trade. Players below that level, like Saggese don't factor into my decision to move Winn.

I might move Winn if we got a stud CF who is cost controlled in return, but I don't know who that player is or if their organization desperately needs a SS. You're not getting Merrill, Julio, or PCA for Winn. Would you trade Winn for Ceddanne Rafaela or Wyatt Langford? I might move Winn for a big corner bat, but again, hard to find the right fit there for a trade.

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 14:33 pm

rbirules wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:38 pm

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:13 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 07:12 am Makes Winn expendable in a trade

I like this.

What do you like about it?

Note: I'm firmly in the camp that nobody is ever off limits, any player can be moved at any time for the right trade. That being said, Winn is young, cost controlled, plays a premium position, and isn't even in his prime yet. Maybe Wetherholt can stick at SS in the majors. But we still need a 2B, which is another premium position. Does Gorman stick there? Does he even hit enough to warrant being a regular starter (he could also move to 1B or 3B if we could move some veterans). You also have Donovan (who can move around) but he's a FA soon and would also bring a nice haul in a trade. Players below that level, like Saggese don't factor into my decision to move Winn.

I might move Winn if we got a stud CF who is cost controlled in return, but I don't know who that player is or if their organization desperately needs a SS. You're not getting Merrill, Julio, or PCA for Winn. Would you trade Winn for Ceddanne Rafaela or Wyatt Langford? I might move Winn for a big corner bat, but again, hard to find the right fit there for a trade.

You always want redundancy at premium positions so if someone is willing to overpay you jump on it. Having a player who can deliver at a premium position like JJ is excellent. The more capable SS’s the better.

In no scenario does it make sense for someone to NOT want JJ to be capable of replacing him.

rbirules wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 15:29 pm

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 14:33 pm

rbirules wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:38 pm

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 12:13 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑24 Jul 2025 07:12 am Makes Winn expendable in a trade

I like this.

What do you like about it?

Note: I'm firmly in the camp that nobody is ever off limits, any player can be moved at any time for the right trade. That being said, Winn is young, cost controlled, plays a premium position, and isn't even in his prime yet. Maybe Wetherholt can stick at SS in the majors. But we still need a 2B, which is another premium position. Does Gorman stick there? Does he even hit enough to warrant being a regular starter (he could also move to 1B or 3B if we could move some veterans). You also have Donovan (who can move around) but he's a FA soon and would also bring a nice haul in a trade. Players below that level, like Saggese don't factor into my decision to move Winn.

I might move Winn if we got a stud CF who is cost controlled in return, but I don't know who that player is or if their organization desperately needs a SS. You're not getting Merrill, Julio, or PCA for Winn. Would you trade Winn for Ceddanne Rafaela or Wyatt Langford? I might move Winn for a big corner bat, but again, hard to find the right fit there for a trade.

You always want redundancy at premium positions so if someone is willing to overpay you jump on it. Having a player who can deliver at a premium position like JJ is excellent. The more capable SS’s the better.

In no scenario does it make sense for someone to NOT want JJ to be capable of replacing him.

I completely get the redundancy argument, but trading Winn eliminates the redundancy at SS. It's awesome that JJ might be able to stick at SS, and according to Keith Law maybe even be an average defender there. But as soon as you trade Winn you're one JJ injury away from scrambling to find a SS.

Again, that's a risk I'm willing to take for the right return, but I also love the idea of having a Winn and JJ middle infield with additional players that can play 2B if JJ has to slide over to SS.