STLtoday.com

icon wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 02:20 am

IndCard75 wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 02:06 am

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

Donovan is not an everyday corner OF, either. Not enough power and has zero power vs. LHP -- no career HRs vs. lefties. He's a platoon guy for a corner OF spot at best. Still not enough power overall.

hullie wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 07:16 am

icon wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 02:20 am

IndCard75 wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 02:06 am

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

Donovan is not an everyday corner OF, either. Not enough power and has zero power vs. LHP -- no career HRs vs. lefties. He's a platoon guy for a corner OF spot at best. Still not enough power overall.

Yet he’s being used as a cleanup hitter.

IndCard75 wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 02:06 am

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:58 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

rockondlouie wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 08:39 am Hitting lead-off:

600 PA
18-20 HR
50-60 RBI
90-100 Runs
10-15 SB's
.275 .365 .460 .825

Basil Shabazz wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 08:23 am As I have always stated when this convo arises.... Noot is a fine player to have while cost controlled. He is fine as a starting corner OF (when healthy) on an average to below average MLB team. He is nice piece (when healthy) as a 4th OF on a contending MLB team.

People will show you where he rans in percentile for hard hit balls, launch angles, OPS+, or whatever cherry picked metric they can find to show you that he is an upper echelon MLB OFer. All of these metrics are fine, but they are limited in sample size because he never plays a full season. He is compared in these metrics to players that have full bodies of work, thus higher counting stats and production.

The fact is that in parts of 4 MLB seasons, he has enough PAs to constitute 2 MLB seasons. In 1173 PAs he has a .246 batting average. His numbers would translate well if he were a CF, but he is not. A full season of Noot in CF would translate to -10+ DRS or worse.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:03 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:02 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:58 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

If he does stay healthy I don't doubt the numbers would be solid (enough). Would you expect him to repeat it for multiple years. I still think we are talking about just a fine player, not some super star that is just too hot to handle.

So Ryan Ludwick ?

imadangman wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 08:53 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 08:39 am Hitting lead-off:

600 PA
18-20 HR
50-60 RBI
90-100 Runs
10-15 SB's
.275 .365 .460 .825

Those are definitely serviceable numbers for a leadoff hitter

ClassicO wrote: ↑16 Apr 2025 14:10 pm Does it looks like this?
It’s early but it’s nice that he’s penciled in every day at LO and healthy.

ClassicO wrote: ↑16 Apr 2025 14:10 pm Does it looks like this?
It’s early but it’s nice that he’s penciled in every day at LO and healthy.

Melville wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:20 pm
What would a breakout season look like?
.250, with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 runs.
His "breakout" would be therefore an improvement to "mediocre".

Melville wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 08:14 am

IndCard75 wrote: ↑28 Feb 2025 02:06 am

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

Largely correct.
Though extremely unlikely that Lars The Human Sushi-baar will ever reach 18 HR in a season, let alone actually average that amount.
He should have been traded a couple of years ago as I was first to correctly analyze and advise.