Futuregm2 wrote: ↑05 Nov 2024 09:46 am
Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑05 Nov 2024 09:40 am
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Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑04 Nov 2024 22:31 pm
Futuregm2 wrote: ↑04 Nov 2024 16:34 pm
Maybe a more surprising one is the Red Sox offering a QO to Nick Pivetta, but they did not issue one to Tyler O’Neill.
Pivetta’s an underrated stud. Both he and Martinez are poised for multi-year deals, so it does make sense to offer them QOs. IMO it’s higher risk to give TO a QO, when there’s a strong chance he could accept and make $20+M, playing 60 games.
Ehh, I wouldn’t go that far. I like him but he’s just a solid pitcher. He’s never had an ERA under 4, never had more than 10 wins, went 6-12 this year, his FIP is usually 4+, gives up too many HRs. Plus who would give up draft money for Pivetta? Or a Nick Martinez?
Pivetta has wicked nasty stuff, seriously. He’s better than solid. He’ll do well in FA, and should certainly be hunting for something better than a one year guarantee.
Martinez? Different level, but he could still manage a good 2-3 year deal that’s more appealing than the QO. His versatility will be valued by contenders… more so with the reigning champs setting a new standard with their bullpen. That said, he could still take the sure thing.
Pivetta isn’t taking the QO, so we’ll see who signs him.
Sure, but at some point you have to produce results even with “wicked stuff”. He’ll be 32 years old and has a career ERA of 4.76 and FIP of 4.36. Not to mention record of 56-71. Who will give up draft pick money for what amounts to a 32 year old project?
He’s not a project. Are you saying nobody will sign him?
I’m saying QO makes him less appealing to teams when they can sign someone else who doesn’t have a QO attached.
I say project because the stuff hasn’t matched the results.
I agree with all that, but I don’t think the QO will prevent him from getting a very attractive contract. We’ll see. He might be able to grab something in the ballpark of Eovaldi’s last deal w/ the Red Sox, which I believe was 4@68.
Maybe, we’ll see. Eovaldi was younger, had better results, and a better FIP. Eovaldi is someone that is a FA as well and in the same range as Pivetta likely and won’t have a QO. My guess is Pivetta takes the QO, but who knows.
Nick Pivetta Unlikely To Accept Qualifying Offer
Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but he’s likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who suggests that “at least” a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, who’s heading into his age-32 season. Passan lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots.
Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), Hyun Jin Ryu (four years, $80MM starting at 33), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and James Shields (four years, $75MM starting at 33).
Solid as Pivetta is, he doesn’t have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the game’s best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons — 233 per year — with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates.
Pivetta doesn’t have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual top 50 free agent rankings, we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was possible for Pivetta — at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but that’s largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, misses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%).
It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unless multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Passan opines that Pivetta “is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter,” which would surprise plenty of onlookers. That’s a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty, while others like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/ ... raves.html
