what if the cards had extended walker?

[ilcubuffs]

So which is the lesser of two evils?

Extend early or sign oft injured MLB player(s).

[lordoffatness]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

Yeah, I think we know that the last regime's abilities for player talent/business decision evaluation - given the Mikolas extension, Carpenter extension, last Molina extension, even doing the Goldschmidt extension when they did, overvaluing other players, etc. - had become poor.

If you are just bad at player talent evaluation, no matter who is it, you're doomed.

Not to mention all of those other extensions were when the player was 30+ and you're buying a declining asset. With JJ, you're in theory buying the peak of his career at a discount.

Even the Dejong contract wasn't that bad. The highest salary he had was $9.5 million in 2023. Not ideal, but not a catastrophic deal. That same year we were also paying these guys:
Goldie and Arenado (they were OK, but first down-ish year for each after their amazing 2022 seasons)
Contreras (he was fine)
Mikolas ($20 million)
Wainwright ($17 million)
Matz ($10 million)

Dejong was nowhere near the biggest problem on that roster.

Exactly.

These extensions for young players almost all get done so relatively cheaply (DeJong was like $4+ million AAV) that they simply can't be "big misses" that cripple the team's payroll.

Even at, say, $12-$13 million AAV for Wetherholt, if his floor is even a 2-3 fWAR player, it wouldn't be a loss for the team. And if he's a 5+ fWAR player, it's a huge win.

Relative to paying Kyle Tucker 4 yrs./$240 million, Bo Bichette 3 yrs./$126 million, Bregman 5 yrs./$175 million, you can get so, so much more out of committing that money aggressive to young players on the come up.

What age season do you think these players will want to hit the free agent market?
There has to be an age that they do not want to cross. This squeezes the contract length
down when dealing with a college player vs a high school player.
Consider PCA and JJW are basically the same age. PCA just signed his extension. It takes him
through his age 30 season. His age 29 and 30 seasons will both cost $30M creating a potential
where the player is difficult to move. The Cubs are paying for that 6 WAR 2025, however
paying him before 2025 had increased question marks. They were able to let it play out. The Cards
won't get the same opportunity with JJW and each year that takes a prime FA age away won't come
at any bargain.

I think, and it is jmo, that as a fan that I need to look more at the ability of keeping a player
than the money. The money savings can also flip to a negative and the money only matters if it
becomes an asset that is spent elsewhere.

In general if it is only about the money letting it play out through the arbitration process is not the worst
strategy in the world. Teams didn't lose in the Soto world, neither did the player who gained so much
by getting to market early, something college players are unable to match.

It's just not about keeping the player and it's not just about the money. It's a combination of things; cost certainty, projecting future payroll, locking in salary before they rise, etc. The Cubs will be ecstatic if PCA is still a 6 WAR player when he's making $30 million. That would be a win for them. Kyle Tucker has never had a 6 WAR season, and he just signed for $60 million per year. What will top free agents go for in 2031 when PCA would've been a free agent? The CBA may change some things, but contracts have continued to go up for all sports, and I don't necessarily see that changing even with a new CBA. It will probably squeeze the mid tier free agents if they put a salary cap in place, but the top guys always get paid.

You do bring up a valid point about age limiting how far a player will want to push into their FA years, but almost all of these extensions buy out at least 1-2 years. Otherwise, there's not a ton of incentive for the team.

Wetherholt is 23 now. Even if they only buy out 2 years of free agency, he's now becoming a FA at 31 instead of 29. If they don't extend him, and he becomes a FA at 29, you now will likely have to pay him until age 35 or so just to get him for his age 29 and 30 seasons which are the years you really want.

[dugoutrex]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

Yeah, I think we know that the last regime's abilities for player talent/business decision evaluation - given the Mikolas extension, Carpenter extension, last Molina extension, even doing the Goldschmidt extension when they did, overvaluing other players, etc. - had become poor.

If you are just bad at player talent evaluation, no matter who is it, you're doomed.

Agree.

The Carp deal was a self inflicted wound for no reason whatsoever. Turned a former fan fave into a villain. At least for me.

most of us did and still do ... love Marp

[renostl]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

Yeah, I think we know that the last regime's abilities for player talent/business decision evaluation - given the Mikolas extension, Carpenter extension, last Molina extension, even doing the Goldschmidt extension when they did, overvaluing other players, etc. - had become poor.

If you are just bad at player talent evaluation, no matter who is it, you're doomed.

Not to mention all of those other extensions were when the player was 30+ and you're buying a declining asset. With JJ, you're in theory buying the peak of his career at a discount.

Even the Dejong contract wasn't that bad. The highest salary he had was $9.5 million in 2023. Not ideal, but not a catastrophic deal. That same year we were also paying these guys:
Goldie and Arenado (they were OK, but first down-ish year for each after their amazing 2022 seasons)
Contreras (he was fine)
Mikolas ($20 million)
Wainwright ($17 million)
Matz ($10 million)

Dejong was nowhere near the biggest problem on that roster.

Exactly.

These extensions for young players almost all get done so relatively cheaply (DeJong was like $4+ million AAV) that they simply can't be "big misses" that cripple the team's payroll.

Even at, say, $12-$13 million AAV for Wetherholt, if his floor is even a 2-3 fWAR player, it wouldn't be a loss for the team. And if he's a 5+ fWAR player, it's a huge win.

Relative to paying Kyle Tucker 4 yrs./$240 million, Bo Bichette 3 yrs./$126 million, Bregman 5 yrs./$175 million, you can get so, so much more out of committing that money aggressive to young players on the come up.

What age season do you think these players will want to hit the free agent market?
There has to be an age that they do not want to cross. This squeezes the contract length
down when dealing with a college player vs a high school player.
Consider PCA and JJW are basically the same age. PCA just signed his extension. It takes him
through his age 30 season. His age 29 and 30 seasons will both cost $30M creating a potential
where the player is difficult to move. The Cubs are paying for that 6 WAR 2025, however
paying him before 2025 had increased question marks. They were able to let it play out. The Cards
won't get the same opportunity with JJW and each year that takes a prime FA age away won't come
at any bargain.

I think, and it is jmo, that as a fan that I need to look more at the ability of keeping a player
than the money. The money savings can also flip to a negative and the money only matters if it
becomes an asset that is spent elsewhere.

In general if it is only about the money letting it play out through the arbitration process is not the worst
strategy in the world. Teams didn't lose in the Soto world, neither did the player who gained so much
by getting to market early, something college players are unable to match.

It's just not about keeping the player and it's not just about the money. It's a combination of things; cost certainty, projecting future payroll, locking in salary before they rise, etc. The Cubs will be ecstatic if PCA is still a 6 WAR player when he's making $30 million. That would be a win for them. Kyle Tucker has never had a 6 WAR season, and he just signed for $60 million per year. What will top free agents go for in 2031 when PCA would've been a free agent? The CBA may change some things, but contracts have continued to go up for all sports, and I don't necessarily see that changing even with a new CBA. It will probably squeeze the mid tier free agents if they put a salary cap in place, but the top guys always get paid.

You do bring up a valid point about age limiting how far a player will want to push into their FA years, but almost all of these extensions buy out at least 1-2 years. Otherwise, there's not a ton of incentive for the team.

Wetherholt is 23 now. Even if they only buy out 2 years of free agency, he's now becoming a FA at 31 instead of 29. If they don't extend him, and he becomes a FA at 29, you now will likely have to pay him until age 35 or so just to get him for his age 29 and 30 seasons which are the years you really want.

PCA almost has to put a .750 OPS as a CFer. He seems a good bet to do that.
Slipping to .700-.725 or injury times will lose the value even the prime position
that he plays so well.

In the Tampa Bay model they expect to acquire a replacement by those age 29/30
seasons and would prefer that player to not be making $30M when they do. Their strategy has
strong merit too as the player has the free will to sign elsewhere.

Projections of arbitration still can provide the cost certainty needed for any given budget. We can both
understand that there are indeed some pluses on the financial side, but it is not done without some negatives
risks as well. We both can appreciate a typical players peak productive years.
The financial pluses only matter to me, as a fan, is if those savings are used elsewhere.
The closer those savings at the end of the term gets to zero the less it means.

Production and extending that production for more term does matter. IF offering a contract to a
player that is 29 and 30 and needing include a age 35 you are doing that with a player
who has proven a range of production that is being bought. Again we are reverting the discussion
back to money in which some of those arbitration years are being oversold vs the arbitration
salary or the player is less likely to sign it. Players and agents aren't giving money away. They both know
age 29 is better than 31 for FA. The relatively older rookie squeezes the cheaper extensions.
Won't that diminish its value potential and do so while having less information on production?

I get it all, really just don't see it as a big win other than it possibly increasing the time to I'm
able to see a player in any given market. Even that can be added later.

Appreciate your response as well as the POV.

[renostl]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

Yeah, I think we know that the last regime's abilities for player talent/business decision evaluation - given the Mikolas extension, Carpenter extension, last Molina extension, even doing the Goldschmidt extension when they did, overvaluing other players, etc. - had become poor.

If you are just bad at player talent evaluation, no matter who is it, you're doomed.

Agree.

The Carp deal was a self inflicted wound for no reason whatsoever. Turned a former fan fave into a villain. At least for me.

I'll assume that you didn't mind the first one.
I'll also assume that had his production continued in St. Louis as well as
it was doing and later did for NYY the contract wouldn't had been vilified.
Production is what matters most smallish overpays of $5M or so mean less.