How the heck did Tommy Edman earn 6.2 bWAR?

[Wattage]

I think everyone pretty much agrees that defense remains the hardest component of productivity to value in a WAR methodology.

However, defensive value IS real and needs to be accounted for. If someone has a better way of valuing EVERY PLAY made by EVERY PLAYER than DRS, UZR/150, OAA, FRV, etc., we'd all like to hear it.

i just think people need to stop trying to look for a one all dtat and look at multiple things. even in offense ops doesnt automatically equal what a team needs. for leadoff hitters obp is more i.portant than slg%. partially for #2 hitters as well. i think people should just look at all stazs and deterimne hpw a player fits intp a team rather than looking for one dtat to try and capture all of it

[NYCardsFan]

WAR overvalues defense, always has.

Re:
J. Heyward/2015
13 HR
60 RBI
.293 .359 .439 .797

7 bWAR

Heyward had an otherworldly +28 DRS in 2015 (following a +23 the year before). It was the peak of his career defensively by that metric. Combine that with a +6 RAA on the bases and a 117/121 OPS+/wRC+ offensively, and yeah, mathematically you get a pretty robust bWAR season (which it was). Granted, he never came close to replicating that performance in subsequent years, but that doesn’t change the fact that 2015 happened.

Or the fact that WAR overrates defense which is where Heyward got the bulk of that 7 bWAR.

What is the “correct” value/weighting for defense, and more importantly, why? Since you assert WAR “overvalues” defense, it would seem to imply you know with certainty what the “right” value/weighting is.

No one knows

Hey don't rail on me, even the WAR guys like you and me can't really define it.

But we do know that defensive metrics are volatile and less precise than offensive ones, too subjective at times.

But if “no one knows” (including you), how can you confidently and authoritatively assert bWAR or fWAR systematically OVERvalues defense?

[mattmitchl44]

I think everyone pretty much agrees that defense remains the hardest component of productivity to value in a WAR methodology.

However, defensive value IS real and needs to be accounted for. If someone has a better way of valuing EVERY PLAY made by EVERY PLAYER than DRS, UZR/150, OAA, FRV, etc., we'd all like to hear it.

I hear ya Matt, so why not just stop using WAR as some kind of fact based stat. It’s not….it’s flawed…..and yet its thrown out there right along with BA, OBP, OPS, ERA, WHIP

But, again, defensive value IS real. You can't just ignore it and decide that you are only going to value players based on BA, OBP, OPS, ERA, WHIP.

You have to have a way of answering - who is really more valuable, Player X who hits .250/.325/.400 but is one of best at his position defensively, or Player Y who hits .275/.350/.475 but is one of the worst defensively at the same position?

[rockondlouie]

WAR overvalues defense, always has.

Re:
J. Heyward/2015
13 HR
60 RBI
.293 .359 .439 .797

7 bWAR

Heyward had an otherworldly +28 DRS in 2015 (following a +23 the year before). It was the peak of his career defensively by that metric. Combine that with a +6 RAA on the bases and a 117/121 OPS+/wRC+ offensively, and yeah, mathematically you get a pretty robust bWAR season (which it was). Granted, he never came close to replicating that performance in subsequent years, but that doesn’t change the fact that 2015 happened.

Or the fact that WAR overrates defense which is where Heyward got the bulk of that 7 bWAR.

What is the “correct” value/weighting for defense, and more importantly, why? Since you assert WAR “overvalues” defense, it would seem to imply you know with certainty what the “right” value/weighting is.

No one knows

Hey don't rail on me, even the WAR guys like you and me can't really define it.

But we do know that defensive metrics are volatile and less precise than offensive ones, too subjective at times.

But if “no one knows” (including you), how can you confidently and authoritatively assert bWAR or fWAR systematically OVERvalues defense?

Who cares?

[mattmitchl44]

WAR overvalues defense, always has.

Re:
J. Heyward/2015
13 HR
60 RBI
.293 .359 .439 .797

7 bWAR

Heyward had an otherworldly +28 DRS in 2015 (following a +23 the year before). It was the peak of his career defensively by that metric. Combine that with a +6 RAA on the bases and a 117/121 OPS+/wRC+ offensively, and yeah, mathematically you get a pretty robust bWAR season (which it was). Granted, he never came close to replicating that performance in subsequent years, but that doesn’t change the fact that 2015 happened.

A super-elite defensive outfielder (as Heyward was in 2015) with a 121 wRC+ is a very valuable player no matter how you cut it. If you prefer using UZR as the default defensive metric, Heyward posted a somewhat lower (but still robust) 5.6 fWAR in 2015.

I recall doing the math one time. When you account for fact that when a RF turns what would have been a hit into an out, they are frequently taking away an opponent's extra base hit, I think Heyward saved like 50 opponent's total bases above average by the extra outs he recorded in RF. You only have to take away an average of ~1 double per week over a 27-week, 6 games-per-week season to do that.

Even if a RF "only" makes three plays a game, or 18 plays a week, is it so surprising that an outstanding RF could catch one more ball per week that would otherwise get into the gap or corner?

Offensively, that's like the difference between Cody Bellinger (279 TB, wRC+ 128) and Lawrence Butler (226 TB, wRC+ 94) last year.

[mattmitchl44]

WAR overvalues defense, always has.

Re:
J. Heyward/2015
13 HR
60 RBI
.293 .359 .439 .797

7 bWAR

Heyward had an otherworldly +28 DRS in 2015 (following a +23 the year before). It was the peak of his career defensively by that metric. Combine that with a +6 RAA on the bases and a 117/121 OPS+/wRC+ offensively, and yeah, mathematically you get a pretty robust bWAR season (which it was). Granted, he never came close to replicating that performance in subsequent years, but that doesn’t change the fact that 2015 happened.

Or the fact that WAR overrates defense which is where Heyward got the bulk of that 7 bWAR.

What is the “correct” value/weighting for defense, and more importantly, why? Since you assert WAR “overvalues” defense, it would seem to imply you know with certainty what the “right” value/weighting is.

No one knows

Hey don't rail on me, even the WAR guys like you and me can't really define it.

But we do know that defensive metrics are volatile and less precise than offensive ones, too subjective at times.

WAR guys don't say you "can't really define it", just that there is more uncertainty in it.

Systematically defining defensive value as we can, even if imperfect, is better than not defining it at all.

[JDW]

To the posters who think WAR is a joke, then why does the accumulated WAR of a team correlate to a team's W-L better than any other current metric?
Sure, there's always room for improvement and refinement with better/more data, obviously it's not perfect and I'm unaware of anybody who claims it is, but currently it's pretty darn good.
Funny how some who disparage WAR will also include it when making a HOF case for a player.

[rockondlouie]

WAR overvalues defense, always has.

Re:
J. Heyward/2015
13 HR
60 RBI
.293 .359 .439 .797

7 bWAR

Heyward had an otherworldly +28 DRS in 2015 (following a +23 the year before). It was the peak of his career defensively by that metric. Combine that with a +6 RAA on the bases and a 117/121 OPS+/wRC+ offensively, and yeah, mathematically you get a pretty robust bWAR season (which it was). Granted, he never came close to replicating that performance in subsequent years, but that doesn’t change the fact that 2015 happened.

Or the fact that WAR overrates defense which is where Heyward got the bulk of that 7 bWAR.

What is the “correct” value/weighting for defense, and more importantly, why? Since you assert WAR “overvalues” defense, it would seem to imply you know with certainty what the “right” value/weighting is.

No one knows

Hey don't rail on me, even the WAR guys like you and me can't really define it.

But we do know that defensive metrics are volatile and less precise than offensive ones, too subjective at times.

WAR guys don't say you "can't really define it", just that there is more uncertainty in it.

Systematically defining defensive value as we can, even if imperfect, is better than not defining it at all.

Many sure do say it because it's true.

Like I posted above, defensive metrics are volatile and less precise than offensive ones.

And no one said it wasn't "better than nothing at all".

This is all opinion........no one is right, no one is wrong since it's opinions.

[Ron Gant's Bicep]

Having watched most of the 2022 and 2015 seasons, I can say confidently without knowing whatever WAR they were assigned that Edman and Heyward were among the most valuable players on those teams - largely due to their defense. I am not really sure what point the OP is trying to make here. If you watched the games, you could see they made a significant impact defensively. It would be more discussion worthy if they advanced analytics didn't reflect that.

I am no WAR disciple but I also can't argue against WAR assigning high value to Edman in 2022 and Heyward in 2015. They were also both excellent baserunners and both ended up with around 50 XBH. Combine that with elite defense, and the WAR should reflect that of an elite All Star caliber player.

[ClassicO]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Been debated here several times and one of the great examples of why WAR is a joke.
Reasoning is that he had a good defensive year……and he ran the bases well

Yeah, how silly to consider essential aspects of being a complete player such as great defense and base running.

He was a +12 DRS playing multiple positions and that is very valuable to a team (some extra wins above a replacement player). He’s not had a positive DRS in the three years since.
He had by far his best year base running with 32 SBs and a career high 95 runs scored (a key production stat).
While I don’t think his WAR should’ve been that high (he was 5.4 WAR with Fangraphs), he was a very valuable player.
I had no issues with trading him, as he was a little guy and had injuries, and they had Donny and Winn.
He fell apart but he was very good in 2022.

[mattmitchl44]

BTW - the real value in advanced metrics like WAR is when they tell you things that you wouldn't otherwise think were true.

[ClassicO]

It’s funny that those who complain about the use of this estimate of a total player value don’t offer anything to replace it.

I’d bet 95% of posts cite only to hitting stats — and wholly ignore defense, base running and positional value (leveling a catcher or shortstop’s stats compared to a first baseman or left fielder).

So, if you hate WAR, please propose or add something better - at least if the issue is a discussion of a player’s complete value to the team.

[ClassicO]

To the posters who think WAR is a joke, then why does the accumulated WAR of a team correlate to a team's W-L better than any other current metric?
Sure, there's always room for improvement and refinement with better/more data, obviously it's not perfect and I'm unaware of anybody who claims it is, but currently it's pretty darn good.
Funny how some who disparage WAR will also include it when making a HOF case for a player.

It not only correlates extremely well to teams over overall wins, but a list of the top WAR players is invariably the best gauge of value - far better than trying to use a player’s slash or any component of the slash.
Again, what do opponents suggest is better?

[HorseTrader]

I remember this arguement from years ago. If I remember correctly it got so heated that a couple of people got banned. So that's my 2 bits worth (probably not worth 2 bits but...). So you all have at it.

[An Old Friend]

in 2022. 107 OPS+, no GG, only 57 RBIs, .324 OBP. .265 BA, career high of 111 SOs. Nothing eye popping in the stats line.

Do you think Ozzie’s defense and baserunning were overrated, too?

[Carp4Cy]

WAR overvalues defense, always has.

Re:
J. Heyward/2015
13 HR
60 RBI
.293 .359 .439 .797

7 bWAR

Heyward had an otherworldly +28 DRS in 2015 (following a +23 the year before). It was the peak of his career defensively by that metric. Combine that with a +6 RAA on the bases and a 117/121 OPS+/wRC+ offensively, and yeah, mathematically you get a pretty robust bWAR season (which it was). Granted, he never came close to replicating that performance in subsequent years, but that doesn’t change the fact that 2015 happened.

Or the fact that WAR overrates defense which is where Heyward got the bulk of that 7 bWAR.

What is the “correct” value/weighting for defense, and more importantly, why? Since you assert WAR “overvalues” defense, it would seem to imply you know with certainty what the “right” value/weighting is.

Something more in line with what FA salaries pay for expected OWar vs expected DWar. They aren’t equal economically.