How many players on our roster are Not part of a competitive future?

[Just Whit]

So many of our players are JAGs/filler/warm bodies/easily replaceable. And many of the position player prospects don’t profile much better:

Siani - already gone
Nado/ Willson - also gone
Scott-serviceable I guess, but far from a game changing contributor
Winn- we keep him , but he’s not AS level, yet
Burly - Same as Winn, but also might we worth trading IF we can get a plus player at a position of great need.
JJW. That’s one we can hopefully build around. But don’t expect him to be Pujols or Witt or Soto or Judge level MOTOB.
Walker/Gorman? How many years is it gonna take to see what we’ve got?
Donny - probably gets traded. And for what?
Sagesse - another warm body, easily replaced
Baez - what is his likely ceiling anyway? Maybe he profiles as a serviceable starter at best but is he a plus player? Most MVP candidates were further along at this point in their careers.
Pages - probably not a starter for a playoff team
RaRod- a long ways away

Still having a hard time envisioning a Pujols/Drew/Renteria/Sanders/Matheny type Core
Or a Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Yadi roster.

I think the following guys will be part of the core going forward:

Wetherholt
Winn
Herrera
Scott
Burleson
Saggese - as a Donovan type piece
Liberatore - as a #2/3
McGreevy - as a #3/4

Guys who aren't:
Romero
Pages
Pozo
Nootbaar
Donovan (only if he gets traded)
Pallante
Bruihl
Stanek
Fernandez
May
Fermin

Unsure:
Walker
Crooks
Gorman (leaning towards NO)
Dobbins
Fitz
Church

Bullpen Guys: (Who knows year to year?)
Graceffo
O'Brien
Svanson - probably though
Leahy - likely
Granillo
Pushard
Raquet

I think we have as many as 8 locks as core pieces, but possibly more depending on some guys' seasons (notably Walker, Gorman, Crooks, Dobbins, and Fitz).

I think we have around 10 who are likely placeholders or future trade pieces (Donovan, Romero, Noot, May, Stanek, Pages).

Even with our "locks", we are going to have to add bigtime reinforcements from outside the organization. I can see Wetherholt and Herrera as tent pole guys, but Winn, Scott, and Burleson are complimentary pieces (although, very good ones to have).

We could still have some more internal help soon (Baez, Rodriguez, Bernal, etc, but that wont be for a few seasons.

Pitching wise, we have Doyle coming as hopefully a legit ace. Mathews hopefully as a strong piece, as well as perhaps Roby (if ever healthy). Then there are others farther away. Our pitching depth in the minors is a good thing as it will give us some security and depth, as well as possible trade chips to acquire missing pieces from the lineup.

I think in a year or 2, we will still need to add 1 legit starter and probably 2 bats from FA or trade.

If you had the following in a year or 2, I think this would be a contender:

Acquired Ace
Doyle
Liberatore
Mathews
McGreevy

Wetherholt (2B)
Herrera (C/DH)
Scott II (CF)
Burleson (1B/DH)
Legit Hitter Addition (LF)
Legit Hitter Addition (3B)
Saggese (UT)
Winn (SS)
Baez (RF)
Bernal/Crooks (C)
Church (OF)
Rodriguez (DH)


What are everyone's thoughts?

I actually agree 100 percent. That's why it's important that we get a return for Donovan, Nootbar, and Romero. This whole model will be based off player development and will have a higher chance of success with a good crop of players to develop.

Thanks, TOtP!

Agree. Obviously some of these guys could falter/progress, but I think this is a pretty good estimate of what the Cards brass is thinking.
Guys like Winn and Scott are perfectly fine being defense-first guys on a team with proven bats (eith around league average production).

Still think Gorman/Walker are HUGE question marks as to whether they are part of the future or not. This year should give us some clarity.

Good summary!

[moose-and-squirrel]

Gotta be honest I think people under value Scott. Scott isn't the problem. The problem is we don't have solid productions from other spots. He has elite defense and elite base running. We only have a few players on the team that fit that profile. Thinking that's just so easy to have is insane. At least he only has one skill he needs to be worked on and just needs to get respectable at. I take Burly do to his very solid contact skills, Winn, Scott, Herrera and J.J. So really just 5 guys and auditions are wide open to find the rest. Sorry to lazy to get into the pitchers

can't steal 1st, so... scott hasn't hit a lick since A+ ball. he's a defensive replacement, not a core piece

[Jatalk]

Not looking at pitching I think Winn, Donovan (if not traded) and Burley could be real compliments to a championship caliber team. JJ we will see but promising.

You could live with Scott if you had capable outfielders in the corner with some pop in the bat.

However if the Cards build a true championship team there is no way all of the above are on that team. If nothing else the Cardinals will be forced to trade one or more to add some star power hitting.

[Cardinals4Life]

So many of our players are JAGs/filler/warm bodies/easily replaceable. And many of the position player prospects don’t profile much better:

Siani - already gone
Nado/ Willson - also gone
Scott-serviceable I guess, but far from a game changing contributor
Winn- we keep him , but he’s not AS level, yet
Burly - Same as Winn, but also might we worth trading IF we can get a plus player at a position of great need.
JJW. That’s one we can hopefully build around. But don’t expect him to be Pujols or Witt or Soto or Judge level MOTOB.
Walker/Gorman? How many years is it gonna take to see what we’ve got?
Donny - probably gets traded. And for what?
Sagesse - another warm body, easily replaced
Baez - what is his likely ceiling anyway? Maybe he profiles as a serviceable starter at best but is he a plus player? Most MVP candidates were further along at this point in their careers.
Pages - probably not a starter for a playoff team
RaRod- a long ways away

Still having a hard time envisioning a Pujols/Drew/Renteria/Sanders/Matheny type Core
Or a Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Yadi roster.

I think the following guys will be part of the core going forward:

Wetherholt
Winn
Herrera
Scott
Burleson
Saggese - as a Donovan type piece
Liberatore - as a #2/3
McGreevy - as a #3/4

Guys who aren't:
Romero
Pages
Pozo
Nootbaar
Donovan (only if he gets traded)
Pallante
Bruihl
Stanek
Fernandez
May
Fermin

Unsure:
Walker
Crooks
Gorman (leaning towards NO)
Dobbins
Fitz
Church

Bullpen Guys: (Who knows year to year?)
Graceffo
O'Brien
Svanson - probably though
Leahy - likely
Granillo
Pushard
Raquet

I think we have as many as 8 locks as core pieces, but possibly more depending on some guys' seasons (notably Walker, Gorman, Crooks, Dobbins, and Fitz).

I think we have around 10 who are likely placeholders or future trade pieces (Donovan, Romero, Noot, May, Stanek, Pages).

Even with our "locks", we are going to have to add bigtime reinforcements from outside the organization. I can see Wetherholt and Herrera as tent pole guys, but Winn, Scott, and Burleson are complimentary pieces (although, very good ones to have).

We could still have some more internal help soon (Baez, Rodriguez, Bernal, etc, but that wont be for a few seasons.

Pitching wise, we have Doyle coming as hopefully a legit ace. Mathews hopefully as a strong piece, as well as perhaps Roby (if ever healthy). Then there are others farther away. Our pitching depth in the minors is a good thing as it will give us some security and depth, as well as possible trade chips to acquire missing pieces from the lineup.

I think in a year or 2, we will still need to add 1 legit starter and probably 2 bats from FA or trade.

If you had the following in a year or 2, I think this would be a contender:

Acquired Ace
Doyle
Liberatore
Mathews
McGreevy

Wetherholt (2B)
Herrera (C/DH)
Scott II (CF)
Burleson (1B/DH)
Legit Hitter Addition (LF)
Legit Hitter Addition (3B)
Saggese (UT)
Winn (SS)
Baez (RF)
Bernal/Crooks (C)
Church (OF)
Rodriguez (DH)


What are everyone's thoughts?

I actually agree 100 percent. That's why it's important that we get a return for Donovan, Nootbar, and Romero. This whole model will be based off player development and will have a higher chance of success with a good crop of players to develop.

Thanks, TOtP!

Agree. Obviously some of these guys could falter/progress, but I think this is a pretty good estimate of what the Cards brass is thinking.
Guys like Winn and Scott are perfectly fine being defense-first guys on a team with proven bats (eith around league average production).

Still think Gorman/Walker are HUGE question marks as to whether they are part of the future or not. This year should give us some clarity.

Good summary!

Thank you, JW

[earp]

Not-trick question
Are part of a competitive future?-funny

[Cardinals4Life]

Gotta be honest I think people under value Scott. Scott isn't the problem. The problem is we don't have solid productions from other spots. He has elite defense and elite base running. We only have a few players on the team that fit that profile. Thinking that's just so easy to have is insane. At least he only has one skill he needs to be worked on and just needs to get respectable at. I take Burly do to his very solid contact skills, Winn, Scott, Herrera and J.J. So really just 5 guys and auditions are wide open to find the rest. Sorry to lazy to get into the pitchers

Edmonds had elite defense and MV3 bat. That’s a big part of the difference between a team that is marginally competitive at best and a true WS contender. Sometimes the good is the enemy of the great.

Yes and no. Just depends on your team's makeup. You can have an MV3 at any position. The key is HAVING them. If we had, for example a 3B, LF, and RF that were offensive aircraft carriers, then Scott is fine.
Unfortunately for Scott, practically the entire team was/is full of complimentary players.

[Carp4Cy]

Gotta be honest I think people under value Scott. Scott isn't the problem. The problem is we don't have solid productions from other spots. He has elite defense and elite base running. We only have a few players on the team that fit that profile. Thinking that's just so easy to have is insane. At least he only has one skill he needs to be worked on and just needs to get respectable at. I take Burly do to his very solid contact skills, Winn, Scott, Herrera and J.J. So really just 5 guys and auditions are wide open to find the rest. Sorry to lazy to get into the pitchers

Edmonds had elite defense and MV3 bat. That’s a big part of the difference between a team that is marginally competitive at best and a true WS contender. Sometimes the good is the enemy of the great.

Yes and no. Just depends on your team's makeup. You can have an MV3 at any position. The key is HAVING them. If we had, for example a 3B, LF, and RF that were offensive aircraft carriers, then Scott is fine.
Unfortunately for Scott, practically the entire team was/is full of complimentary players.

Too true. Burly is not the MVP caliber 1B (nor a Pujols /Goldy GG) that we need at 1B. Hes merely serviceable for what needs to be an elite power position on a playoff team. And we have zero power at catcher, shortstop, and centerfield, and while that’s normal, it’s going to limit you to being normal/ average if you can’t sneak in an elite bat at one of those defense premium positions.

So yeah, we could survive no offense from centerfield but it means we have a need of big upgrades at at least four other positions.

[Cardinals4Life]

Gotta be honest I think people under value Scott. Scott isn't the problem. The problem is we don't have solid productions from other spots. He has elite defense and elite base running. We only have a few players on the team that fit that profile. Thinking that's just so easy to have is insane. At least he only has one skill he needs to be worked on and just needs to get respectable at. I take Burly do to his very solid contact skills, Winn, Scott, Herrera and J.J. So really just 5 guys and auditions are wide open to find the rest. Sorry to lazy to get into the pitchers

Edmonds had elite defense and MV3 bat. That’s a big part of the difference between a team that is marginally competitive at best and a true WS contender. Sometimes the good is the enemy of the great.

Yes and no. Just depends on your team's makeup. You can have an MV3 at any position. The key is HAVING them. If we had, for example a 3B, LF, and RF that were offensive aircraft carriers, then Scott is fine.
Unfortunately for Scott, practically the entire team was/is full of complimentary players.

Too true. Burly is not the MVP caliber 1B (nor a Pujols /Goldy GG) that we need at 1B. Hes merely serviceable for what needs to be an elite power position on a playoff team. And we have zero power at catcher, shortstop, and centerfield, and while that’s normal, it’s going to limit you to being normal/ average if you can’t sneak in an elite bat at one of those defense premium positions.

So yeah, we could survive no offense from centerfield but it means we have a need of big upgrades at at least four other positions.

100%.

I also agree on Burley. Perhaps he can shift to DH/LF of we can acquire a power 1B. Or he is serviceable (as a complimentary piece) if we upgrade at 3B and corner OF spots.

[Shady]

Gotta be honest I think people under value Scott. Scott isn't the problem. The problem is we don't have solid productions from other spots. He has elite defense and elite base running. We only have a few players on the team that fit that profile. Thinking that's just so easy to have is insane. At least he only has one skill he needs to be worked on and just needs to get respectable at. I take Burly do to his very solid contact skills, Winn, Scott, Herrera and J.J. So really just 5 guys and auditions are wide open to find the rest. Sorry to lazy to get into the pitchers

Edmonds had elite defense and MV3 bat. That’s a big part of the difference between a team that is marginally competitive at best and a true WS contender. Sometimes the good is the enemy of the great.

Yes and no. Just depends on your team's makeup. You can have an MV3 at any position. The key is HAVING them. If we had, for example a 3B, LF, and RF that were offensive aircraft carriers, then Scott is fine.
Unfortunately for Scott, practically the entire team was/is full of complimentary players.

Too true. Burly is not the MVP caliber 1B (nor a Pujols /Goldy GG) that we need at 1B. Hes merely serviceable for what needs to be an elite power position on a playoff team. And we have zero power at catcher, shortstop, and centerfield, and while that’s normal, it’s going to limit you to being normal/ average if you can’t sneak in an elite bat at one of those defense premium positions.

So yeah, we could survive no offense from centerfield but it means we have a need of big upgrades at at least four other positions.

100%.

I also agree on Burley. Perhaps he can shift to DH/LF of we can acquire a power 1B. Or he is serviceable (as a complimentary piece) if we upgrade at 3B and corner OF spots.

Would Burleson have at least average offensive production at 1B with 23 HRs, 79 RBIs and a .820 OPS? And he could.

[BrockFloodMaris]

So many of our players are JAGs/filler/warm bodies/easily replaceable. And many of the position player prospects don’t profile much better:

Siani - already gone
Nado/ Willson - also gone
Scott-serviceable I guess, but far from a game changing contributor
Winn- we keep him , but he’s not AS level, yet
Burly - Same as Winn, but also might we worth trading IF we can get a plus player at a position of great need.
JJW. That’s one we can hopefully build around. But don’t expect him to be Pujols or Witt or Soto or Judge level MOTOB.
Walker/Gorman? How many years is it gonna take to see what we’ve got?
Donny - probably gets traded. And for what?
Sagesse - another warm body, easily replaced
Baez - what is his likely ceiling anyway? Maybe he profiles as a serviceable starter at best but is he a plus player? Most MVP candidates were further along at this point in their careers.
Pages - probably not a starter for a playoff team
RaRod- a long ways away

Still having a hard time envisioning a Pujols/Drew/Renteria/Sanders/Matheny type Core
Or a Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Yadi roster.

The Cards Jan. ‘28 MLB roster will look much different than it does today. Mo created a core out of AAAA players. Bloom appears to be committed to developing true MLB players. Still lots of work to do.

[Cardinals4Life]

Gotta be honest I think people under value Scott. Scott isn't the problem. The problem is we don't have solid productions from other spots. He has elite defense and elite base running. We only have a few players on the team that fit that profile. Thinking that's just so easy to have is insane. At least he only has one skill he needs to be worked on and just needs to get respectable at. I take Burly do to his very solid contact skills, Winn, Scott, Herrera and J.J. So really just 5 guys and auditions are wide open to find the rest. Sorry to lazy to get into the pitchers

Edmonds had elite defense and MV3 bat. That’s a big part of the difference between a team that is marginally competitive at best and a true WS contender. Sometimes the good is the enemy of the great.

Yes and no. Just depends on your team's makeup. You can have an MV3 at any position. The key is HAVING them. If we had, for example a 3B, LF, and RF that were offensive aircraft carriers, then Scott is fine.
Unfortunately for Scott, practically the entire team was/is full of complimentary players.

Too true. Burly is not the MVP caliber 1B (nor a Pujols /Goldy GG) that we need at 1B. Hes merely serviceable for what needs to be an elite power position on a playoff team. And we have zero power at catcher, shortstop, and centerfield, and while that’s normal, it’s going to limit you to being normal/ average if you can’t sneak in an elite bat at one of those defense premium positions.

So yeah, we could survive no offense from centerfield but it means we have a need of big upgrades at at least four other positions.

100%.

I also agree on Burley. Perhaps he can shift to DH/LF of we can acquire a power 1B. Or he is serviceable (as a complimentary piece) if we upgrade at 3B and corner OF spots.

Would Burleson have at least average offensive production at 1B with 23 HRs, 79 RBIs and a .820 OPS? And he could.

Maybe. He's just not the traditional bopper associated with 1st Base.
I think he is an above average hitter, just not an aircraft carrier for a team. Nothing wrong with that. We need those guys too. That's why I included him in my "core".

[pitchingandefense]

If we’re looking for a core MV3 who can post 4-5+ WAR per season, the Cards are close to having that.

Winn has already established himself at a very young age as the premier fielding SS in the NL who still has room to grow offensively. Easy 4+ WAR guy moving forward.

Wetherholt is going to be a 5+ WAR player by 2027.

So who will be the third guy? Not Herrera and Burleson, though they will continue to hit. Their defensive values will limit them to 3 WAR, and that’s okay.

The third guy will be Baez. He will be the best defensive RF we have seen in STL in a while, and he’s going to provide an exciting power/speed combo that will make him a perennial 4-5+ WAR player.

[Carp4Cy]

Gotta be honest I think people under value Scott. Scott isn't the problem. The problem is we don't have solid productions from other spots. He has elite defense and elite base running. We only have a few players on the team that fit that profile. Thinking that's just so easy to have is insane. At least he only has one skill he needs to be worked on and just needs to get respectable at. I take Burly do to his very solid contact skills, Winn, Scott, Herrera and J.J. So really just 5 guys and auditions are wide open to find the rest. Sorry to lazy to get into the pitchers

Edmonds had elite defense and MV3 bat. That’s a big part of the difference between a team that is marginally competitive at best and a true WS contender. Sometimes the good is the enemy of the great.

Yes and no. Just depends on your team's makeup. You can have an MV3 at any position. The key is HAVING them. If we had, for example a 3B, LF, and RF that were offensive aircraft carriers, then Scott is fine.
Unfortunately for Scott, practically the entire team was/is full of complimentary players.

Too true. Burly is not the MVP caliber 1B (nor a Pujols /Goldy GG) that we need at 1B. Hes merely serviceable for what needs to be an elite power position on a playoff team. And we have zero power at catcher, shortstop, and centerfield, and while that’s normal, it’s going to limit you to being normal/ average if you can’t sneak in an elite bat at one of those defense premium positions.

So yeah, we could survive no offense from centerfield but it means we have a need of big upgrades at at least four other positions.

100%.

I also agree on Burley. Perhaps he can shift to DH/LF of we can acquire a power 1B. Or he is serviceable (as a complimentary piece) if we upgrade at 3B and corner OF spots.

Would Burleson have at least average offensive production at 1B with 23 HRs, 79 RBIs and a .820 OPS? And he could.

that's just the point!?!?! Too many posters are constantly justifying "average", but an entirely average team gets you to about 81 wins.

Our goal needs to be a lot higher.

[Carp4Cy]

If we’re looking for a core MV3 who can post 4-5+ WAR per season, the Cards are close to having that.

Winn has already established himself at a very young age as the premier fielding SS in the NL who still has room to grow offensively. Easy 4+ WAR guy moving forward.

Wetherholt is going to be a 5+ WAR player by 2027.

So who will be the third guy? Not Herrera and Burleson, though they will continue to hit. Their defensive values will limit them to 3 WAR, and that’s okay.

The third guy will be Baez. He will be the best defensive RF we have seen in STL in a while, and he’s going to provide an exciting power/speed combo that will make him a perennial 4-5+ WAR player.

No, we need a core that can post 7, 8, and 9 WAR in the same season when things go right. ANd at least one of them is a lock for 8 WAR even when the stars don't all align.

If you are talking 4-5 WAR level, that's potentially AS status, and on a great team we should need 5 or 6 of our roster at that level.
See 2012: Carlos Beltran, OF; David Freese, 3B; Rafael Furcal, SS; Matt Holliday, OF; Lance Lynn, P; Yadier Molina, C
2013: Carlos Beltran, OF; Matt Carpenter, 2B; Allen Craig, 1B; Yadier Molina, C; Edward Mujica, P; Adam Wainwright, P
2015 : Matt Holliday, OF; Yadier Molina, C; Jhonny Peralta, SS; Carlos Martinez, P; Michael Wacha, P; Trevor Rosenthal, P

[ronnie76]

So many of our players are JAGs/filler/warm bodies/easily replaceable. And many of the position player prospects don’t profile much better:

Siani - already gone
Nado/ Willson - also gone
Scott-serviceable I guess, but far from a game changing contributor
Winn- we keep him , but he’s not AS level, yet
Burly - Same as Winn, but also might we worth trading IF we can get a plus player at a position of great need.
JJW. That’s one we can hopefully build around. But don’t expect him to be Pujols or Witt or Soto or Judge level MOTOB.
Walker/Gorman? How many years is it gonna take to see what we’ve got?
Donny - probably gets traded. And for what?
Sagesse - another warm body, easily replaced
Baez - what is his likely ceiling anyway? Maybe he profiles as a serviceable starter at best but is he a plus player? Most MVP candidates were further along at this point in their careers.
Pages - probably not a starter for a playoff team
RaRod- a long ways away

Still having a hard time envisioning a Pujols/Drew/Renteria/Sanders/Matheny type Core
Or a Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Yadi roster.

Good synopsis:
2026 will certainly need to address a number of questions.
I like Scott for his tools but his plate discipline needs major work.
Is 2026 make or break for Gorman/Walker/Noot?
JJ hopefully is a keeper.
Some good Catchers in the pipeline and Josh Baez could make some noise.
2026 certainly won’t lack for intrigue!

Agreed except for Baez. I just don't see him progressing enough to have an impact. That strikeout rate worries me.

[3dender]

So many of our players are JAGs/filler/warm bodies/easily replaceable. And many of the position player prospects don’t profile much better:

Siani - already gone
Nado/ Willson - also gone
Scott-serviceable I guess, but far from a game changing contributor
Winn- we keep him , but he’s not AS level, yet
Burly - Same as Winn, but also might we worth trading IF we can get a plus player at a position of great need.
JJW. That’s one we can hopefully build around. But don’t expect him to be Pujols or Witt or Soto or Judge level MOTOB.
Walker/Gorman? How many years is it gonna take to see what we’ve got?
Donny - probably gets traded. And for what?
Sagesse - another warm body, easily replaced
Baez - what is his likely ceiling anyway? Maybe he profiles as a serviceable starter at best but is he a plus player? Most MVP candidates were further along at this point in their careers.
Pages - probably not a starter for a playoff team
RaRod- a long ways away

Still having a hard time envisioning a Pujols/Drew/Renteria/Sanders/Matheny type Core
Or a Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Yadi roster.

Good synopsis:
2026 will certainly need to address a number of questions.
I like Scott for his tools but his plate discipline needs major work.
Is 2026 make or break for Gorman/Walker/Noot?
JJ hopefully is a keeper.
Some good Catchers in the pipeline and Josh Baez could make some noise.
2026 certainly won’t lack for intrigue!

Agreed except for Baez. I just don't see him progressing enough to have an impact. That strikeout rate worries me.

He cut his K rate last year fifteen points, from 35.5% to 20.6%... he reworked his swing and is a highly viable prospect again.