Aaron Judge : How many more seasons of 50 HR per does he have in him?

[CorneliusWolfe]

Entering his age 34 season...he's coming off 3 of 4 seasons over 50 HR. He would've had 4 straight seasons of 50+ HR, but was injured in 2023 only accumulating 37 HR in around 105 games.

When does his fall off begin? I ask b/c he's at 368 HR, he's easily at 500 HR, that's not up for debate. Can he make to 600 HR? His pace is incredible, but again, he's coming up on that age and persistent injury cliff that nearly every veteran faces...clean veteran, which I assume he is.

I say he gets another 200 over the next 5 years, falling short of 600. That would still be an average of 40 up until age 38, of which I’d guess the majority comes during the first 3 years. He’s bound to spend some time on the IL and father time is ruthless. Just all guesswork though.

He is a great player and if he can be an ironman over these next 5 years, then he’ll likely be capable of more.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

I don’t know that Judge is a lock for anything. No one can debate his dominance the last 3-4 years but he will be 34 next April. The older he gets, the more the injury concerns will come up. There’s the possibility of a work stoppage after the 2026 season. What if he loses a year there.

I don’t see Judge coming close to 700. Heck, 600 is a stretch. It’s all conjecture but his age, his big body, the possibility of a work stoppage all seem to work against him. I don’t have anything against Judge. He has been phenomenal but he has some things working against him that we have to wait and see how things work out.

I agree with this. Not only is injury a concern at 34 but players always slow down and lose "it". He might be one of the all time greats that lasts til 40 and reaches 700. But I am more inclined to believe 600 will be his target in his last year.

Mays - hit 660 HRs. 81 from age 37 onward
Griffey Jr - 630 HRs 84 after 37 onward
Mantle - 536 HRs retired at 37
Pujols - 703 HRs 106 after age 36
Aaron 755 HRs 163 HRs age 37 onward

I left Sosa, Bonds and ARod off as PEDs make their longevity a non-factor in how Judge will do.

If he stays clean in order to reach 600 he will need 232 more:

368 currently
Age 34 - 50
age 35 - 50
age 36 - 50
age 37 - 50
age 38 - 32

He is a VERY large man. I do not think he will still be productive past age 38. 600 is a big number to reach. 700 seems silly to even imagine. As great as Judge is he is also 6'7" 282 lbs. If I were a betting man I'd bet against 600 and the odds for 700 are probably astronomical.

[TheFantasyStud]

Makes me respect Pujols even more! Wow!

[C-Unit]

I think he has about 2 more years of hitting 50+. I think he has more than 2 years left of slugging over .600, but injury shortened seasons where he is hitting HRs at an elite rate but coming short of 50 due to injury. I think he finishes around 550.

[AtillaTheBlue1]

Entering his age 34 season...he's coming off 3 of 4 seasons over 50 HR. He would've had 4 straight seasons of 50+ HR, but was injured in 2023 only accumulating 37 HR in around 105 games.

When does his fall off begin? I ask b/c he's at 368 HR, he's easily at 500 HR, that's not up for debate. Can he make to 600 HR? His pace is incredible, but again, he's coming up on that age and persistent injury cliff that nearly every veteran faces...clean veteran, which I assume he is.

depends on how the HGH lets his body hold up

[HorseTrader]

He's such a big guy that he'll always be an injury concern. At some point the Yankees will have to move him to DH to decrease the wear and tear on his body. I think he makes a real run at 700.

I seriously doubt he makes a run at 700. He'd need another 332, even at 50 per year that's another 6+ years. He'll be 34 in April. So he'd have to play at his present level from age 34 through his age 39 season. I don't see it. I do think he will make 600 but that maybe all she wrote. I wish him the best

I think he can DH well into his 40s, if he stays healthy, and still put up healthy HR numbers. I could certainly be wrong, but he is a physical freak.

Part of the problem is they also have Stanton who also needs to be a DH for health reasons. So one of them has to either sit on the bench (not happening) or play in the field. I don't see either of those two playing at age 40. Who knows they may both play at age 50....

[mattmitchl44]

Judge has been exceptional over the last four years or so. But I'd take Father Time as being undefeated at some point. I could see a 50 HR season in 2026 and then a steady 7 HR per season drop off as injuries and declining production catch up to him.

So 50, 43, 36, 29, 22, and 16 HRs over his remaining contact. 564 HRs for his career.

[3dender]

He's such a big guy that he'll always be an injury concern. At some point the Yankees will have to move him to DH to decrease the wear and tear on his body. I think he makes a real run at 700.

I seriously doubt he makes a run at 700. He'd need another 332, even at 50 per year that's another 6+ years. He'll be 34 in April. So he'd have to play at his present level from age 34 through his age 39 season. I don't see it. I do think he will make 600 but that maybe all she wrote. I wish him the best

I think he can DH well into his 40s, if he stays healthy, and still put up healthy HR numbers. I could certainly be wrong, but he is a physical freak.

Part of the problem is they also have Stanton who also needs to be a DH for health reasons. So one of them has to either sit on the bench (not happening) or play in the field. I don't see either of those two playing at age 40. Who knows they may both play at age 50....

Stanton's only under contract for two more years and Judge will still be above average RF by then.

Still, the days of DH mashers continuing to age 40 are long gone (coincidentally along with the PED heyday). David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez don't really happen anymore... Nelson Cruz has kinda been the only one in the last 20 years. If anyone can do it I guess Judge can, but his K-rate is a factor working against him (5 points higher than Cruz's for his career).

[rockondlouie]

Age 34 seasons for for some of the best (NON STEROID) HR hitters of all time:

-Babe/46 HR (40+ three more times)
-Aaron/29 HR (40+ three more times)
-Albert/28 HR (40 one more time)
-Mays/52 HR (Never reached 40 again)
-Griffey/20 HR (Never reached 40 again)
-Robinson/25 HR (Never reached 40 again)

I think A. Judge can easily stay in the 40-50 range for a couple more seasons before the decline sets in.

Like many have stated he's a giant of a man (I'm 6'3"/225 lbs and stood near him at the rail of the Yankees dugout one time and he made me feel like a little kid) so injuries could play a big role in his future as they have in his career.

Can he reach 500 HR's? Absolutely

600? No

700? Not a chance

But had he made it to MLB by age 22 instead of age 24............and had he not lost so many PA's to injuries, then he could've made a solid run at 600 HR's, perhaps even joining Hank, The Babe and Albert in the legit 700 HR club!

JMO

[HorseTrader]

He's such a big guy that he'll always be an injury concern. At some point the Yankees will have to move him to DH to decrease the wear and tear on his body. I think he makes a real run at 700.

I seriously doubt he makes a run at 700. He'd need another 332, even at 50 per year that's another 6+ years. He'll be 34 in April. So he'd have to play at his present level from age 34 through his age 39 season. I don't see it. I do think he will make 600 but that maybe all she wrote. I wish him the best

I think he can DH well into his 40s, if he stays healthy, and still put up healthy HR numbers. I could certainly be wrong, but he is a physical freak.

Part of the problem is they also have Stanton who also needs to be a DH for health reasons. So one of them has to either sit on the bench (not happening) or play in the field. I don't see either of those two playing at age 40. Who knows they may both play at age 50....

Stanton's only under contract for two more years and Judge will still be above average RF by then.

Still, the days of DH mashers continuing to age 40 are long gone (coincidentally along with the PED heyday). David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez don't really happen anymore... Nelson Cruz has kinda been the only one in the last 20 years. If anyone can do it I guess Judge can, but his K-rate is a factor working against him (5 points higher than Cruz's for his career).

I thought Stanton had more years left on his contract but you are correct. Thing is, per baseball ref, his salary is $25 mill per for next two years and a team option at the same $25 mill. Marlins seem to be paying $10 mill per year all three years. So the Yankees are really only paying $15 mill per year. If that's correct I'd guess (passed on last couple years) they'd pick up that team option.

Really no big difference. I just don't think Judge can continue to hit 50 per year 5+ years to make it to 700.