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sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:55 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:52 am

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:45 am

OldRed wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:44 am

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:51 am Very simple. It has nothing to do with the human. It’s all about natural numbers.

Formula- put as many into the system as it can hold. Let ‘em play. Thin them out. Continue the process until complete. End state- 3 make it, three don’t. As to who by name, not relevant.

Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed. With that mind is much more difficult to become a good Major League player.

Good write.

But the % of draftees that make the majors is higher for 1st and 2nd round draftees.

Ok. That’s a maybe. It has nothing to do with prospect saturation. There are only a few 1’and2’s. Much greater numbers in lower positions.

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:34 am

Bully4you wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:49 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

Hoosier59 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:03 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:34 am

Bully4you wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:49 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:08 am

Hoosier59 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:03 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:34 am

Bully4you wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:49 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!

Good post. Totally agree.

ecleme22 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:01 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Poor player development and talent evaluation.

OldRed wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:44 am

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:51 am Very simple. It has nothing to do with the human. It’s all about natural numbers.

Formula- put as many into the system as it can hold. Let ‘em play. Thin them out. Continue the process until complete. End state- 3 make it, three don’t. As to who by name, not relevant.

Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed. With that mind is much more difficult to become a good Major League player.

Hoosier59 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:03 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:34 am

Bully4you wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:49 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!

RichieRichSTL wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:21 am

OldRed wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:44 am

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:51 am Very simple. It has nothing to do with the human. It’s all about natural numbers.

Formula- put as many into the system as it can hold. Let ‘em play. Thin them out. Continue the process until complete. End state- 3 make it, three don’t. As to who by name, not relevant.

Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed. With that mind is much more difficult to become a good Major League player.

If you have 16 AA players in your system, one stud, one nice Burleson/Donovan, and BOTR arm and a BP piece, yoi would be doing well.

I say AA as I expect a lower % like you specify at A ball.

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:24 am

Hoosier59 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:03 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:34 am

Bully4you wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:49 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!

Winn actually hit worse the second half of last year.

He hit 3 HRs the last 4 months of a 6 month season

Jatalk wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:29 am I’m not sure our % of busts are anymore than any other team. But it is notable we can’t develop all around outfielders, power hitters and I am wondering about catchers. We have talent there but jury still out.

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:32 am

Jatalk wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:29 am I’m not sure our % of busts are anymore than any other team. But it is notable we can’t develop all around outfielders, power hitters and I am wondering about catchers. We have talent there but jury still out.

You may be on to it. We seemed to identify talent ok, develop it ok, but the transition to ML was rougher.

It must be the league itself plus crowd and stadium size. You gotta know that the 780 best baseball players in the world reside here.

That’s one reason.

ecleme22 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:01 am

Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Poor player development and talent evaluation.

ecleme22 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:35 am

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:32 am

Jatalk wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:29 am I’m not sure our % of busts are anymore than any other team. But it is notable we can’t develop all around outfielders, power hitters and I am wondering about catchers. We have talent there but jury still out.

You may be on to it. We seemed to identify talent ok, develop it ok, but the transition to ML was rougher.

It must be the league itself plus crowd and stadium size. You gotta know that the 780 best baseball players in the world reside here.

That’s one reason.

Mo normalized the ‘AAA reset!’

It happened way too often

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:25 am

RichieRichSTL wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 09:21 am

OldRed wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 08:44 am

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:51 am Very simple. It has nothing to do with the human. It’s all about natural numbers.

Formula- put as many into the system as it can hold. Let ‘em play. Thin them out. Continue the process until complete. End state- 3 make it, three don’t. As to who by name, not relevant.

Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed. With that mind is much more difficult to become a good Major League player.

If you have 16 AA players in your system, one stud, one nice Burleson/Donovan, and BOTR arm and a BP piece, yoi would be doing well.

I say AA as I expect a lower % like you specify at A ball.

If I had 16 at AA, I’d expect 4-6 make it to AAA uninsured. Then 1-2 to majors. You are correct. If you get four, I say you did well on that group.