Why?

[Cranny]

Very simple. It has nothing to do with the human. It’s all about natural numbers.

Formula- put as many into the system as it can hold. Let ‘em play. Thin them out. Continue the process until complete. End state- 3 make it, three don’t. As to who by name, not relevant.

Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed. With that mind is much more difficult to become a good Major League player.

Good write.

But the % of draftees that make the majors is higher for 1st and 2nd round draftees.

Ok. That’s a maybe. It has nothing to do with prospect saturation. There are only a few 1’and2’s. Much greater numbers in lower positions.

There are extensive studies available that show the % of draftees by round that make it to MLB.

[Hoosier59]

Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!

[Cranny]

Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!

Good post. Totally agree.

[2ninr]

Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!

Good post. Totally agree.

That's pretty much what I see as well.

[Banner29]

Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Poor player development and talent evaluation.

Yup

[RichieRichSTL]

Very simple. It has nothing to do with the human. It’s all about natural numbers.

Formula- put as many into the system as it can hold. Let ‘em play. Thin them out. Continue the process until complete. End state- 3 make it, three don’t. As to who by name, not relevant.

Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed. With that mind is much more difficult to become a good Major League player.

If you have 16 AA players in your system, one stud, one nice Burleson/Donovan, and BOTR arm and a BP piece, yoi would be doing well.

I say AA as I expect a lower % like you specify at A ball.

[scoutyjones2]

Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!

Winn actually hit worse the second half of last year.

He hit 3 HRs the last 4 months of a 6 month season

[sikeston bulldog2]

Very simple. It has nothing to do with the human. It’s all about natural numbers.

Formula- put as many into the system as it can hold. Let ‘em play. Thin them out. Continue the process until complete. End state- 3 make it, three don’t. As to who by name, not relevant.

Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed. With that mind is much more difficult to become a good Major League player.

If you have 16 AA players in your system, one stud, one nice Burleson/Donovan, and BOTR arm and a BP piece, yoi would be doing well.

I say AA as I expect a lower % like you specify at A ball.

If I had 16 at AA, I’d expect 4-6 make it to AAA uninsured. Then 1-2 to majors. You are correct. If you get four, I say you did well on that group.

[Goldfan]

Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Why do you think some Bozo who happens to write something somewhere has some sort of special insight to whether a minor league kid can succeed in MLB? “Highly rated, highly rank, #3 in org”. Most of these guys doing these rankings probably have less knowledge and intuition than some of us who log in here. But that is your barometer as to the skill, mental makeup, and determination of a teen or early 20’s kid. Watch the player, if you have any clue about baseball then you should be able to figure out if the player will make it…..barring any major injuries.
Example
Carlson-had a sweet stroke but after you watched him he seemed physically weak and mostly disinterested.
Gorman- been over this 50x here. Can’t stay on the ball, only has one real power spot in swing, hasn’t been able adjust to book MLB has now
Walker- poor batting stance, can’t recognize pitches, won’t listen to coaching, hasn’t been able to adjust to book MLB has now.

[Jatalk]

I’m not sure our % of busts are anymore than any other team. But it is notable we can’t develop all around outfielders, power hitters and I am wondering about catchers. We have talent there but jury still out.

[Hoosier59]

Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.

I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.

What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!

Winn actually hit worse the second half of last year.

He hit 3 HRs the last 4 months of a 6 month season

That was due to the knee pain. In his interview with Jim Hayes, Oli stated how badly the knee was effecting Winn in the second half.
He said he would check with Masyn everyday just see if he was good to go that day or not. He also pretty much said the reason he kept playing at all was to try and win the gold glove.
I personally look for Masyn to hit a lot better this coming season. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

[sikeston bulldog2]

I’m not sure our % of busts are anymore than any other team. But it is notable we can’t develop all around outfielders, power hitters and I am wondering about catchers. We have talent there but jury still out.

You may be on to it. We seemed to identify talent ok, develop it ok, but the transition to ML was rougher.

It must be the league itself plus crowd and stadium size. You gotta know that the 780 best baseball players in the world reside here.

That’s one reason.

[ecleme22]

I’m not sure our % of busts are anymore than any other team. But it is notable we can’t develop all around outfielders, power hitters and I am wondering about catchers. We have talent there but jury still out.

You may be on to it. We seemed to identify talent ok, develop it ok, but the transition to ML was rougher.

It must be the league itself plus crowd and stadium size. You gotta know that the 780 best baseball players in the world reside here.

That’s one reason.

Mo normalized the ‘AAA reset!’

It happened way too often

[sdrosenthal]

Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?

Poor player development and talent evaluation.

I think it falls in the Player Development as well.

For Gorman, He is pretty much as advertised. Big power, Big Strikeouts.

Carlson, no clue what happened there.

Walker, the organization failed him. They started messing with his swing to generate more HR, rather than being content with high average and fair power.

[sikeston bulldog2]

I’m not sure our % of busts are anymore than any other team. But it is notable we can’t develop all around outfielders, power hitters and I am wondering about catchers. We have talent there but jury still out.

You may be on to it. We seemed to identify talent ok, develop it ok, but the transition to ML was rougher.

It must be the league itself plus crowd and stadium size. You gotta know that the 780 best baseball players in the world reside here.

That’s one reason.

Mo normalized the ‘AAA reset!’

It happened way too often

That is a great point. The Sikeston express- the Memphis shuttle. Never been a thread on the Memphis shuttle.

“ just send them down.”

[RichieRichSTL]

Very simple. It has nothing to do with the human. It’s all about natural numbers.

Formula- put as many into the system as it can hold. Let ‘em play. Thin them out. Continue the process until complete. End state- 3 make it, three don’t. As to who by name, not relevant.

Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed. With that mind is much more difficult to become a good Major League player.

If you have 16 AA players in your system, one stud, one nice Burleson/Donovan, and BOTR arm and a BP piece, yoi would be doing well.

I say AA as I expect a lower % like you specify at A ball.

If I had 16 at AA, I’d expect 4-6 make it to AAA uninsured. Then 1-2 to majors. You are correct. If you get four, I say you did well on that group.

If you get 2 out of that group into the majors and you are able to leverage more of that original 16 to get 2 pieces when you are competitive in 2028, you win also. Prospects don't have to succeed for you to get a "win" out of them.

Mo's problem is they fell off in development and assessment. He held onto the wrong ones for too long snd he traded the wrong ones.

WJ didnt get too sentimental about prospects and used them at times very effectively in trades.