CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 10:48 am
Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats.
Nobody really disagrees with that - however, the key is that you have to spend money wisely. If you are a team like the Cardinals, when you are ready to "win now", you can't afford to have expensive contracts on your books that are "underwater." So when you spend and exactly who you spend on are of vital importance.
sometimes wisely includes taking smart risks. Sometimes picking up someone who is currently undervalued and paying them long term at a below market rate vs what they develop into during the term of their contract. Hard to project sometimes, but if you can its a huge boon.
Other times it just means picking up the right players when they are available. And that may or may not line up with 100% efficiency rates of MM's master timing plan. You probably have to be a bit flexible in the real world and spend a little before you are entirely ready. There are certainly directions this can be done with Zero downside other than pure $ investment. For example - we pickup the right OFer now who has a contract or runway running at least 4-5 more years, and he will be blocking nobody when we are "ready" to promote other prospects. THere are enough OF holes to go around. But there might not be "the right" OF available or enough of them in 1 or 2 years or whenever. Markets can get lean fast and sometimes you have to overpay to get what you need Right Now vs making moves when you are more flexible in your timing.
CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 11:15 am
I'll concede the point that they are more likely to help the more talented players to achieve greatness. In that respect I agree, but in any minor leagues you have at most a handful of those types, but you fill in with the best you can for depth. The problem is that depth usually doesn't equal talent but sometimes is just a guy buying time as a warm body. Doyle, for all the fanfare that he's received, hasn't thrown a ball in the majors yet. He may never. When/if he does there's as good or better chance that he fails. That's why you can't put all your eggs into the draft to win approach. You just have to acquire major league talent to win. You just have to.
A "best case" Cardinals roster is going to have:
- maybe five star/superstar level players
- a few above average players
- and a whole bunch of players from ML average down to bench/role players
Developing players that fill any of those roles from within you organization helps.
And the simple fact will be that the Cardinals will never be able to out and simply buy five star/superstar level players who are being paid full market value. They can pay for two, maybe three. But to ever reach their "best case" roster, they have to develop 2-3 star/superstar level players themselves.
Same for the population of a few above average players.
We paid for 5 HOFers in 2022. If we'd had a better manager and MO made maybe one more move, we probably go far in the playoffs that year.
CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 10:48 am
I always liked Flores. And now that I hear him speak I'm even more impressed. He seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Cerfolio on the other hand, seems much more (I can't think of the word). He almost seems like he's reading off of a fan site. I don't know much about him but I assume that Bloom does. It was a pretty good interview but there was a lot of repeating that it takes an army and yada yada. Drafting and developing is great but it isn't the end all be all. Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats. See the Dodgers, Yankee's etc. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking that process at all, but I get tired of hearing how all this "teaching" is going to turn a lesser talent into some kind of star player.
It is helpful that they do these interviews. They aren't just rebuilding a farm system, they are rebuilding the perception of the Cardinals development system to the rest of the industry. When people in the industry feel like there is extensive and comprehensive teaching and training going on, your prospects will be ranked higher. Teams will value your prospects more highly when it comes to trades if they believe your development system is good. Keep doing the interviews.
Also, if you are going into somewhat of a rebuild/reset/restructure, it's helpful to be transparent with the fan base and build confidence that the organization has a plan and a clear sense of direction. Unfortunately, that kind of communication has been lacking the past few years, probably because the FO/ownership didn't have a confident sense of direction to convey.
Cardinal fans expect winning baseball. The Cardinals game plan, which was “confused” to some, was to build for the future while still making the playoffs. Having guys like Goldy, Arenado, Contreras, Gray, etc., while bringing along guys like Winn, Burleson, Walker, Winn, Gorman, and Herrera.
CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 10:48 am
I always liked Flores. And now that I hear him speak I'm even more impressed. He seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Cerfolio on the other hand, seems much more (I can't think of the word). He almost seems like he's reading off of a fan site. I don't know much about him but I assume that Bloom does. It was a pretty good interview but there was a lot of repeating that it takes an army and yada yada. Drafting and developing is great but it isn't the end all be all. Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats. See the Dodgers, Yankee's etc. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking that process at all, but I get tired of hearing how all this "teaching" is going to turn a lesser talent into some kind of star player.
I didn't listen to the interview, so maybe I'm misinterpreting things, but in my view the drafting and developing isn't trying to turn lesser players into stars. To me it's more about identifying talented players and then developing them to the point where they can bring those talents out in them, so that they can develop into the player that the team thinks they can be.
Take a player like McGreevy. I don't think anyone drafted him thinking that they can take this guy, who most agreed had limited upside, and make him an ace. They want to see him reach his potential, but sure it's possible that maybe they can get more out of him. I don't think anyone expects more, though. But when you draft a player like Liam Doyle, he already has the potential to be a star, but they need to do some development to get him to that point.
Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 12:04 pmYet they drafted Michael in Round 1.
Yea, exactly. They drafted pitchers like him with high floors and low ceilings. That was the problem with their system for a long time. It's been discussed a lot through the years. The thought was they would be less likely to bust, but they still bust. However, even when they reach their potential, it isn't that great. No one ever thought that Michael McGreevy was going to become an ace after some development.
However, you draft a guy like Liam Doyle, sure he might bust, but he also has the potential to be an ace. And the Cardinals job is to develop him to reach that potential.
CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 10:48 am
I always liked Flores. And now that I hear him speak I'm even more impressed. He seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Cerfolio on the other hand, seems much more (I can't think of the word). He almost seems like he's reading off of a fan site. I don't know much about him but I assume that Bloom does. It was a pretty good interview but there was a lot of repeating that it takes an army and yada yada. Drafting and developing is great but it isn't the end all be all. Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats. See the Dodgers, Yankee's etc. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking that process at all, but I get tired of hearing how all this "teaching" is going to turn a lesser talent into some kind of star player.
It is helpful that they do these interviews. They aren't just rebuilding a farm system, they are rebuilding the perception of the Cardinals development system to the rest of the industry. When people in the industry feel like there is extensive and comprehensive teaching and training going on, your prospects will be ranked higher. Teams will value your prospects more highly when it comes to trades if they believe your development system is good. Keep doing the interviews.
Also, if you are going into somewhat of a rebuild/reset/restructure, it's helpful to be transparent with the fan base and build confidence that the organization has a plan and a clear sense of direction. Unfortunately, that kind of communication has been lacking the past few years, probably because the FO/ownership didn't have a confident sense of direction to convey.
Cardinal fans expect winning baseball. The Cardinals game plan, which was “confused” to some, was to build for the future while still making the playoffs. Having guys like Goldy, Arenado, Contreras, Gray, etc., while bringing along guys like Winn, Burleson, Walker, Winn, Gorman, and Herrera.
It was confusing because it didn't work and they didn't adjust.
CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 11:15 am
I'll concede the point that they are more likely to help the more talented players to achieve greatness. In that respect I agree, but in any minor leagues you have at most a handful of those types, but you fill in with the best you can for depth. The problem is that depth usually doesn't equal talent but sometimes is just a guy buying time as a warm body. Doyle, for all the fanfare that he's received, hasn't thrown a ball in the majors yet. He may never. When/if he does there's as good or better chance that he fails. That's why you can't put all your eggs into the draft to win approach. You just have to acquire major league talent to win. You just have to.
A "best case" Cardinals roster is going to have:
- maybe five star/superstar level players
- a few above average players
- and a whole bunch of players from ML average down to bench/role players
Developing players that fill any of those roles from within you organization helps.
And the simple fact will be that the Cardinals will never be able to out and simply buy five star/superstar level players who are being paid full market value. They can pay for two, maybe three. But to ever reach their "best case" roster, they have to develop 2-3 star/superstar level players themselves.
Same for the population of a few above average players.
We paid for 5 HOFers in 2022. If we'd had a better manager and MO made maybe one more move, we probably go far in the playoffs that year.
They weren't paying them all at star/superstar rates, however. Wainwright was being paid like a solid regular ($17.5 M), Molina less ($10M), and Pujols only $2.5M. Wainwright produced at an above avg. level (almost 3 fWAR), Pujols was a great value at 2 fWAR, and Molina was just 1 fWAR.
They weren't stars/superstars and weren't being paid as such.
The were only paying for two stars/superstars in 2022 - Goldschmidt and Arenado. And they got star/superstar level performance also from Edman.
CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 11:15 am
I'll concede the point that they are more likely to help the more talented players to achieve greatness. In that respect I agree, but in any minor leagues you have at most a handful of those types, but you fill in with the best you can for depth. The problem is that depth usually doesn't equal talent but sometimes is just a guy buying time as a warm body. Doyle, for all the fanfare that he's received, hasn't thrown a ball in the majors yet. He may never. When/if he does there's as good or better chance that he fails. That's why you can't put all your eggs into the draft to win approach. You just have to acquire major league talent to win. You just have to.
A "best case" Cardinals roster is going to have:
- maybe five star/superstar level players
- a few above average players
- and a whole bunch of players from ML average down to bench/role players
Developing players that fill any of those roles from within you organization helps.
And the simple fact will be that the Cardinals will never be able to out and simply buy five star/superstar level players who are being paid full market value. They can pay for two, maybe three. But to ever reach their "best case" roster, they have to develop 2-3 star/superstar level players themselves.
Same for the population of a few above average players.
We paid for 5 HOFers in 2022. If we'd had a better manager and MO made maybe one more move, we probably go far in the playoffs that year.
They weren't paying them all at star/superstar rates, however. Wainwright was being paid like a solid regular ($17.5 M), Molina less ($10M), and Pujols only $2.5M. Wainwright produced at an above avg. level (almost 3 fWAR), Pujols was a great value at 2 fWAR, and Molina was just 1 fWAR.
They weren't stars/superstars and weren't being paid as such.
The were only paying for two stars/superstars in 2022 - Goldschmidt and Arenado. And they got star/superstar level performance also from Edman.
Sometimes its worth bringing in the old guys on incentive contracts - the HOF types on the backend of their careers, because you can get that 2-3 WAR value and their experience to boot. But no one here wants to see anyone over 30 in the dugout anymore.
CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 11:15 am
I'll concede the point that they are more likely to help the more talented players to achieve greatness. In that respect I agree, but in any minor leagues you have at most a handful of those types, but you fill in with the best you can for depth. The problem is that depth usually doesn't equal talent but sometimes is just a guy buying time as a warm body. Doyle, for all the fanfare that he's received, hasn't thrown a ball in the majors yet. He may never. When/if he does there's as good or better chance that he fails. That's why you can't put all your eggs into the draft to win approach. You just have to acquire major league talent to win. You just have to.
A "best case" Cardinals roster is going to have:
- maybe five star/superstar level players
- a few above average players
- and a whole bunch of players from ML average down to bench/role players
Developing players that fill any of those roles from within you organization helps.
And the simple fact will be that the Cardinals will never be able to out and simply buy five star/superstar level players who are being paid full market value. They can pay for two, maybe three. But to ever reach their "best case" roster, they have to develop 2-3 star/superstar level players themselves.
Same for the population of a few above average players.
We paid for 5 HOFers in 2022. If we'd had a better manager and MO made maybe one more move, we probably go far in the playoffs that year.
They weren't paying them all at star/superstar rates, however. Wainwright was being paid like a solid regular ($17.5 M), Molina less ($10M), and Pujols only $2.5M. Wainwright produced at an above avg. level (almost 3 fWAR), Pujols was a great value at 2 fWAR, and Molina was just 1 fWAR.
They weren't stars/superstars and weren't being paid as such.
The were only paying for two stars/superstars in 2022 - Goldschmidt and Arenado. And they got star/superstar level performance also from Edman.
Sometimes its worth bringing in the old guys on incentive contracts - the HOF types on the backend of their careers, because you can get that 2-3 WAR value and their experience to boot. But no one here wants to see anyone over 30 in the dugout anymore.
That wasn't the debate - at all. The point was:
And the simple fact will be that the Cardinals will never be able to out and simply buy five star/superstar level players who are being paid full market value. They can pay for two, maybe three. But to ever reach their "best case" roster, they have to develop 2-3 star/superstar level players themselves.
CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 11:15 am
I'll concede the point that they are more likely to help the more talented players to achieve greatness. In that respect I agree, but in any minor leagues you have at most a handful of those types, but you fill in with the best you can for depth. The problem is that depth usually doesn't equal talent but sometimes is just a guy buying time as a warm body. Doyle, for all the fanfare that he's received, hasn't thrown a ball in the majors yet. He may never. When/if he does there's as good or better chance that he fails. That's why you can't put all your eggs into the draft to win approach. You just have to acquire major league talent to win. You just have to.
A "best case" Cardinals roster is going to have:
- maybe five star/superstar level players
- a few above average players
- and a whole bunch of players from ML average down to bench/role players
Developing players that fill any of those roles from within you organization helps.
And the simple fact will be that the Cardinals will never be able to out and simply buy five star/superstar level players who are being paid full market value. They can pay for two, maybe three. But to ever reach their "best case" roster, they have to develop 2-3 star/superstar level players themselves.
Same for the population of a few above average players.
We paid for 5 HOFers in 2022. If we'd had a better manager and MO made maybe one more move, we probably go far in the playoffs that year.
They weren't paying them all at star/superstar rates, however. Wainwright was being paid like a solid regular ($17.5 M), Molina less ($10M), and Pujols only $2.5M. Wainwright produced at an above avg. level (almost 3 fWAR), Pujols was a great value at 2 fWAR, and Molina was just 1 fWAR.
They weren't stars/superstars and weren't being paid as such.
The were only paying for two stars/superstars in 2022 - Goldschmidt and Arenado. And they got star/superstar level performance also from Edman.
Sometimes its worth bringing in the old guys on incentive contracts - the HOF types on the backend of their careers, because you can get that 2-3 WAR value and their experience to boot. But no one here wants to see anyone over 30 in the dugout anymore.
That wasn't the debate - at all. The point was:
And the simple fact will be that the Cardinals will never be able to out and simply buy five star/superstar level players who are being paid full market value. They can pay for two, maybe three. But to ever reach their "best case" roster, they have to develop 2-3 star/superstar level players themselves.
We do need to develop players but even so, we will very quickly have to start playing the good ones at market or near market rates.
Our 2011 WS team had:
Carpenter - veteran
Wainwright - $8M pre-FA contract which was a lot back then
Yadi - extended to avoid FA
Holliday - resigned at market in FA
Pujols - extended to avoid FA
Lance Berkman - veteran star - $8M
Jay and Freese made contributions but we had no 4+ fWAR All stars at minimum wage. We have to be able to afford more than 2-3 stars/vets at market / near market rates.
CCard wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 10:48 am
I always liked Flores. And now that I hear him speak I'm even more impressed. He seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Cerfolio on the other hand, seems much more (I can't think of the word). He almost seems like he's reading off of a fan site. I don't know much about him but I assume that Bloom does. It was a pretty good interview but there was a lot of repeating that it takes an army and yada yada. Drafting and developing is great but it isn't the end all be all. Nobody goes to the WS just by drafting and developing. You got to spend the ducats. See the Dodgers, Yankee's etc. Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking that process at all, but I get tired of hearing how all this "teaching" is going to turn a lesser talent into some kind of star player.
Cerfolio is one sharp cookie CC, he could easily be named GM once C. Bloom fills the position.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 12:39 pm
We do need to develop players but even so, we will very quickly have to start playing the good ones at market or near market rates.
That's why it is important to aggressively extend the young players that you do develop to longer term contracts that lock them up at below market rates (relative to their production) out until they are about age 30, 31. The Cardinals can do that.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 12:39 pmWe do need to develop players but even so, we will very quickly have to start playing the good ones at market or near market rates.
Our 2011 WS team had:
Carpenter - veteran
Wainwright - $8M pre-FA contract which was a lot back then
Yadi - extended to avoid FA
Holliday - resigned at market in FA
Pujols - extended to avoid FA
Lance Berkman - veteran star - $8M
Jay and Freese made contributions but we had no 4+ fWAR All stars at minimum wage. We have to be able to afford more than 2-3 stars/vets at market / near market rates.
Yes, if you draft and develop Hall of Famers, or just really good players, you should sign them to extensions in order to avoid free agency. That's like the whole point. You get to hold onto really good players that way, and they can't go anywhere because you drafted and developed them, so you have control of them for a long time. You might even get a really good deal because you lock them up early in their career.
You can sign players in free agency or trade for them and hope they extend with you, but you're probably going to pay a lot more.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 12:39 pm
We do need to develop players but even so, we will very quickly have to start playing the good ones at market or near market rates.
That's why it is important to aggressively extend the young players that you do develop to longer term contracts that lock them up at below market rates (relative to their production) out until they are about age 30, 31. The Cardinals can do that.
I wonder if we trade Donovan, we will in hindsight realize we were 1 Donovan away from hitting critical mass of internally developed contributors by sometime in 2027. If the return is too far way in the minors, the timeline gets pushed out and diluted - its a tough needle to thread.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑12 Dec 2025 12:39 pm
We do need to develop players but even so, we will very quickly have to start playing the good ones at market or near market rates.
That's why it is important to aggressively extend the young players that you do develop to longer term contracts that lock them up at below market rates (relative to their production) out until they are about age 30, 31. The Cardinals can do that.
BDWJr can easily afford to keep ANY player who's not in the S. Ohtani/J. Soto price range (Re: A 2026 version of Albert).
No need to cry "poor mouth" for Dewitt or to rush extensions.
No current Cardinals deserve an early extension since none will ever be out of Dewitt's reach.
The only one who could emerge and be worthy of that early extension in his third season is JJW, possibly Doyle.
