MLB Salaries

[mattmitchl44]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

That's why it is so hard to rebuild small room for error. No guarantees high picks will work out. Tons of busts in mlb drsft

Certainly that is true. The math from the first trade by Bloom probably points to the equations he is using to win this game. He gave up $10.6M of value in the Gray trade and received $23.7M of value per BTV or $13.1M of excess value. I am guessing by running up the bidding on Donovan, he is trying to receive more than $13.1M of excess value on the Donovan trade, if it happens. Presumably if enough excess value trades are made, the percentage increases that enough of the prospects come through it is a winning situation over time.

Its fascinating looking at all the proposed Donovan trades on BTV right now. Some of the posters have the Cards receiving less back than what they trade away. I can't see 1 single possibility of that happening. Almost all of them equalize out the trade value with a quantity for quality trade. I can't see that happening either.

55 Grade prospects have values all over the place on BTV ranging from about $12M to $30M+. I would guess Bloom is going to try and get 2 55s at least for Donovan if not more with a total BTV somewhere in the $42-48M range. I don't know how many more, if any, trades the Cards have to create that differential. But, if he can get to the same level with Donovan as he did with Gray and maybe another 55 for Contreras, then the Cards have reduced the roster valuation difference over time by $25-40M via trades. Of course they won't all work out. But, if they end up with 5 high end prospects for Donovan, Gray, and Contreras, don't at least 1 or 2 have to work out? Then if 2 or 3 of our current top 7 work out, then you have a core. By working out, I mean a minimum level of 2-3 WAR player consistently.

So do all MLB teams have this BTV book and this is how trades Finalize……..Only if these values somehow align?? The Sox want to win now and required a top of rotation SP. The Cards received a minor leaguer and a bottom rotation starter. Sox don’t care about Grays age or salary wanting to win now. Cards are rebuilding on hope and not MLB production. New Cards players may NEVER produce a MLB return. Completely different NEEDS for each team. So how does this correlate to some BTV value?
And trades are now judged by BTV values??
If Cards prospects produce 0 value going forward and Sonny wins 16games on a WS Boston team next season what’s the BTV???

Here:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

if you look under the "About" drop down menu, you can read up on how they put a value on major and minor league players.

As I thought….a bunch of assumptions…..projections…..some tied to WAR….over simplification……attempting to spit out a single number that somehow takes in to account the motivation, needs, financial capacity, of one organization vs another organization. I don’t think this is how trades work in the real world.

As they note, they benchmark their methods against trades that are actually made and continue to refine their models. As they note under their "History" page:

Of 996 trades they have reviewed since 996, their model would have said that 931 of them were close enough in value that they would be accepted, so that's 93.5%.

Their methodology for valuing players and comparing values offered in trades isn't random if it is agreeing with real world trades 93.5% of the time.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Next adventure. Divide teams up into divisions based on wealth.

[Goldfan]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

That's why it is so hard to rebuild small room for error. No guarantees high picks will work out. Tons of busts in mlb drsft

Certainly that is true. The math from the first trade by Bloom probably points to the equations he is using to win this game. He gave up $10.6M of value in the Gray trade and received $23.7M of value per BTV or $13.1M of excess value. I am guessing by running up the bidding on Donovan, he is trying to receive more than $13.1M of excess value on the Donovan trade, if it happens. Presumably if enough excess value trades are made, the percentage increases that enough of the prospects come through it is a winning situation over time.

Its fascinating looking at all the proposed Donovan trades on BTV right now. Some of the posters have the Cards receiving less back than what they trade away. I can't see 1 single possibility of that happening. Almost all of them equalize out the trade value with a quantity for quality trade. I can't see that happening either.

55 Grade prospects have values all over the place on BTV ranging from about $12M to $30M+. I would guess Bloom is going to try and get 2 55s at least for Donovan if not more with a total BTV somewhere in the $42-48M range. I don't know how many more, if any, trades the Cards have to create that differential. But, if he can get to the same level with Donovan as he did with Gray and maybe another 55 for Contreras, then the Cards have reduced the roster valuation difference over time by $25-40M via trades. Of course they won't all work out. But, if they end up with 5 high end prospects for Donovan, Gray, and Contreras, don't at least 1 or 2 have to work out? Then if 2 or 3 of our current top 7 work out, then you have a core. By working out, I mean a minimum level of 2-3 WAR player consistently.

So do all MLB teams have this BTV book and this is how trades Finalize……..Only if these values somehow align?? The Sox want to win now and required a top of rotation SP. The Cards received a minor leaguer and a bottom rotation starter. Sox don’t care about Grays age or salary wanting to win now. Cards are rebuilding on hope and not MLB production. New Cards players may NEVER produce a MLB return. Completely different NEEDS for each team. So how does this correlate to some BTV value?
And trades are now judged by BTV values??
If Cards prospects produce 0 value going forward and Sonny wins 16games on a WS Boston team next season what’s the BTV???

Here:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

if you look under the "About" drop down menu, you can read up on how they put a value on major and minor league players.

This must be a kissing cousin to WAR

Well, yeah, they have to calculate the value of a player's on-field production and compare it to his salary to determine what his "surplus value" is. A WAR methodology is the best way to quantify that for every player - in particular when you have to put all position players and pitchers on a common scale.

The “value” of a player to Yanks, Sox, LA is completely different than the “value”to the Marlins, PItts, Cincy. So attempting say that the Cards received 13mil excess value in the trade is useless. The value lies in what each teams NEEDS, not some hypothetical number given to each player. Especially a minor league player.

Let’s just look at salary. How do you assign a negative value to a players salary if you’re dealing with teams who have virtually unlimited budgets? Those team only want the best players and don’t really care about salary and yet BTV seems to assume that salaries should be equally compared across all teams. Great distortion in just the salary input.

[mattmitchl44]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

That's why it is so hard to rebuild small room for error. No guarantees high picks will work out. Tons of busts in mlb drsft

Certainly that is true. The math from the first trade by Bloom probably points to the equations he is using to win this game. He gave up $10.6M of value in the Gray trade and received $23.7M of value per BTV or $13.1M of excess value. I am guessing by running up the bidding on Donovan, he is trying to receive more than $13.1M of excess value on the Donovan trade, if it happens. Presumably if enough excess value trades are made, the percentage increases that enough of the prospects come through it is a winning situation over time.

Its fascinating looking at all the proposed Donovan trades on BTV right now. Some of the posters have the Cards receiving less back than what they trade away. I can't see 1 single possibility of that happening. Almost all of them equalize out the trade value with a quantity for quality trade. I can't see that happening either.

55 Grade prospects have values all over the place on BTV ranging from about $12M to $30M+. I would guess Bloom is going to try and get 2 55s at least for Donovan if not more with a total BTV somewhere in the $42-48M range. I don't know how many more, if any, trades the Cards have to create that differential. But, if he can get to the same level with Donovan as he did with Gray and maybe another 55 for Contreras, then the Cards have reduced the roster valuation difference over time by $25-40M via trades. Of course they won't all work out. But, if they end up with 5 high end prospects for Donovan, Gray, and Contreras, don't at least 1 or 2 have to work out? Then if 2 or 3 of our current top 7 work out, then you have a core. By working out, I mean a minimum level of 2-3 WAR player consistently.

So do all MLB teams have this BTV book and this is how trades Finalize……..Only if these values somehow align?? The Sox want to win now and required a top of rotation SP. The Cards received a minor leaguer and a bottom rotation starter. Sox don’t care about Grays age or salary wanting to win now. Cards are rebuilding on hope and not MLB production. New Cards players may NEVER produce a MLB return. Completely different NEEDS for each team. So how does this correlate to some BTV value?
And trades are now judged by BTV values??
If Cards prospects produce 0 value going forward and Sonny wins 16games on a WS Boston team next season what’s the BTV???

Here:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

if you look under the "About" drop down menu, you can read up on how they put a value on major and minor league players.

This must be a kissing cousin to WAR

Well, yeah, they have to calculate the value of a player's on-field production and compare it to his salary to determine what his "surplus value" is. A WAR methodology is the best way to quantify that for every player - in particular when you have to put all position players and pitchers on a common scale.

The “value” of a player to Yanks, Sox, LA is completely different than the “value”to the Marlins, PItts, Cincy. So attempting say that the Cards received 13mil excess value in the trade is useless. The value lies in what each teams NEEDS, not some hypothetical number given to each player. Especially a minor league player.

Let’s just look at salary. How do you assign a negative value to a players salary if you’re dealing with teams who have virtually unlimited budgets? Those team only want the best players and don’t really care about salary and yet BTV seems to assume that salaries should be equally compared across all teams. Great distortion in just the salary input.

They put what their model says is an objective value on that player's production. That baseline value applies to any team who might have that player (and their contract).

But if a particular contending team thinks they need to add exactly Player X to put them over the top and win a WS next year, yes, they will probably "overpay" (essentially putting a value on Player X that is higher than their objective value) to get that player.

That doesn't mean that the objective value place on Player X was wrong, just that circumstances led to a team "overpaying" for them.

I expect that BTV probably has a negative value assigned to Dylan Cease right now, suggesting that Toronto overpaid when they committed to a 7 yr./$210 million contract for him. And, objectively, that is probably true. If they wanted to trade Cease right now, they would probably have to eat some of his contract to get that done. But, because they no doubt view him as a critical piece to winning a WS in 2026, they were willing to "overpay" for him.

[cardstatman]

MLB baseball player performance is extremely volatile. Their BTV values vary wildly as new information materializes.

Proven veteran players lose their skills at age 30 or 32 or 34 or 36. When will it happen for a specific player?
All players are susceptible to injuries. Who will it be?
Dominant AA or AAA players can't make the jump to MLB performance. Which ones?
Million dollar high school or college prospects get weaknesses exposed and can't even make it to AAA. Which ones?
Overlooked prospects turn into all star MLB players. Which ones?

MLB teams don't just use BTV values; they set their own value. BTV attempts to be a generic team's valuation of a player.
Every team has different resources, is in a different stage of competitiveness, has areas of excess and areas of deficiency which affect their values.
Every team has preferences like contact, power, exit velocity, fastball speed, pitch shapes, etc. which they value differently than others.

The secret of a team's success is:
know its own strategies and to be a bit smarter than BTV (and other teams) at setting trade values or drafting players or signing free agents
understand how values go up and down and which player values are likely to rise or drip in the future; trade high and buy low
I personnally believe you need to understand when quality is more important than quanity and when it is not. Manage your 40-man roster!

If you are better than your peers at valuing players and you know what each team values, then you can gain a little ground with every transaction while making trades where the other team also believes helped them gain a little ground. You don't care whether the other team was right, you only care what they believe was right and are willing to do.

A huge part of winning baseball is about predicting the future better than your peers. It is called scouting and analytics.
Another huge part of winning baseball is teaching player how to maximize their talents.
A less obvious advantage is teaching them how to play smarter baseball to give themselves better opportunities.

... or you can just have an enormous budget and buy proven MLB players off the free agent market place and take on large salaries in trades.

[Goldfan]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

That's why it is so hard to rebuild small room for error. No guarantees high picks will work out. Tons of busts in mlb drsft

Certainly that is true. The math from the first trade by Bloom probably points to the equations he is using to win this game. He gave up $10.6M of value in the Gray trade and received $23.7M of value per BTV or $13.1M of excess value. I am guessing by running up the bidding on Donovan, he is trying to receive more than $13.1M of excess value on the Donovan trade, if it happens. Presumably if enough excess value trades are made, the percentage increases that enough of the prospects come through it is a winning situation over time.

Its fascinating looking at all the proposed Donovan trades on BTV right now. Some of the posters have the Cards receiving less back than what they trade away. I can't see 1 single possibility of that happening. Almost all of them equalize out the trade value with a quantity for quality trade. I can't see that happening either.

55 Grade prospects have values all over the place on BTV ranging from about $12M to $30M+. I would guess Bloom is going to try and get 2 55s at least for Donovan if not more with a total BTV somewhere in the $42-48M range. I don't know how many more, if any, trades the Cards have to create that differential. But, if he can get to the same level with Donovan as he did with Gray and maybe another 55 for Contreras, then the Cards have reduced the roster valuation difference over time by $25-40M via trades. Of course they won't all work out. But, if they end up with 5 high end prospects for Donovan, Gray, and Contreras, don't at least 1 or 2 have to work out? Then if 2 or 3 of our current top 7 work out, then you have a core. By working out, I mean a minimum level of 2-3 WAR player consistently.

So do all MLB teams have this BTV book and this is how trades Finalize……..Only if these values somehow align?? The Sox want to win now and required a top of rotation SP. The Cards received a minor leaguer and a bottom rotation starter. Sox don’t care about Grays age or salary wanting to win now. Cards are rebuilding on hope and not MLB production. New Cards players may NEVER produce a MLB return. Completely different NEEDS for each team. So how does this correlate to some BTV value?
And trades are now judged by BTV values??
If Cards prospects produce 0 value going forward and Sonny wins 16games on a WS Boston team next season what’s the BTV???

Here:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

if you look under the "About" drop down menu, you can read up on how they put a value on major and minor league players.

This must be a kissing cousin to WAR

Well, yeah, they have to calculate the value of a player's on-field production and compare it to his salary to determine what his "surplus value" is. A WAR methodology is the best way to quantify that for every player - in particular when you have to put all position players and pitchers on a common scale.

The “value” of a player to Yanks, Sox, LA is completely different than the “value”to the Marlins, PItts, Cincy. So attempting say that the Cards received 13mil excess value in the trade is useless. The value lies in what each teams NEEDS, not some hypothetical number given to each player. Especially a minor league player.

Let’s just look at salary. How do you assign a negative value to a players salary if you’re dealing with teams who have virtually unlimited budgets? Those team only want the best players and don’t really care about salary and yet BTV seems to assume that salaries should be equally compared across all teams. Great distortion in just the salary input.

They put what their model says is an objective value on that player's production. That baseline value applies to any team who might have that player (and their contract).

But if a particular contending team thinks they need to add exactly Player X to put them over the top and win a WS next year, yes, they will probably "overpay" (essentially putting a value on Player X that is higher than their objective value) to get that player.

That doesn't mean that the objective value place on Player X was wrong, just that circumstances led to a team "overpaying" for them.

I expect that BTV probably has a negative value assigned to Dylan Cease right now, suggesting that Toronto overpaid when they committed to a 7 yr./$210 million contract for him. And, objectively, that is probably true. If they wanted to trade Cease right now, they would probably have to eat some of his contract to get that done. But, because they no doubt view him as a critical piece to winning a WS in 2026, they were willing to "overpay" for him.

BTV would work perfectly if all inputs were constant but obviously they’re not. The deal is between 2 teams(usually) one may have unlimited $$$$ and unlimited prospect talent. The other could have no money and no minor league talent. The Value needs of each team is entirely different.

[mattmitchl44]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

That's why it is so hard to rebuild small room for error. No guarantees high picks will work out. Tons of busts in mlb drsft

Certainly that is true. The math from the first trade by Bloom probably points to the equations he is using to win this game. He gave up $10.6M of value in the Gray trade and received $23.7M of value per BTV or $13.1M of excess value. I am guessing by running up the bidding on Donovan, he is trying to receive more than $13.1M of excess value on the Donovan trade, if it happens. Presumably if enough excess value trades are made, the percentage increases that enough of the prospects come through it is a winning situation over time.

Its fascinating looking at all the proposed Donovan trades on BTV right now. Some of the posters have the Cards receiving less back than what they trade away. I can't see 1 single possibility of that happening. Almost all of them equalize out the trade value with a quantity for quality trade. I can't see that happening either.

55 Grade prospects have values all over the place on BTV ranging from about $12M to $30M+. I would guess Bloom is going to try and get 2 55s at least for Donovan if not more with a total BTV somewhere in the $42-48M range. I don't know how many more, if any, trades the Cards have to create that differential. But, if he can get to the same level with Donovan as he did with Gray and maybe another 55 for Contreras, then the Cards have reduced the roster valuation difference over time by $25-40M via trades. Of course they won't all work out. But, if they end up with 5 high end prospects for Donovan, Gray, and Contreras, don't at least 1 or 2 have to work out? Then if 2 or 3 of our current top 7 work out, then you have a core. By working out, I mean a minimum level of 2-3 WAR player consistently.

So do all MLB teams have this BTV book and this is how trades Finalize……..Only if these values somehow align?? The Sox want to win now and required a top of rotation SP. The Cards received a minor leaguer and a bottom rotation starter. Sox don’t care about Grays age or salary wanting to win now. Cards are rebuilding on hope and not MLB production. New Cards players may NEVER produce a MLB return. Completely different NEEDS for each team. So how does this correlate to some BTV value?
And trades are now judged by BTV values??
If Cards prospects produce 0 value going forward and Sonny wins 16games on a WS Boston team next season what’s the BTV???

Here:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

if you look under the "About" drop down menu, you can read up on how they put a value on major and minor league players.

This must be a kissing cousin to WAR

Well, yeah, they have to calculate the value of a player's on-field production and compare it to his salary to determine what his "surplus value" is. A WAR methodology is the best way to quantify that for every player - in particular when you have to put all position players and pitchers on a common scale.

The “value” of a player to Yanks, Sox, LA is completely different than the “value”to the Marlins, PItts, Cincy. So attempting say that the Cards received 13mil excess value in the trade is useless. The value lies in what each teams NEEDS, not some hypothetical number given to each player. Especially a minor league player.

Let’s just look at salary. How do you assign a negative value to a players salary if you’re dealing with teams who have virtually unlimited budgets? Those team only want the best players and don’t really care about salary and yet BTV seems to assume that salaries should be equally compared across all teams. Great distortion in just the salary input.

They put what their model says is an objective value on that player's production. That baseline value applies to any team who might have that player (and their contract).

But if a particular contending team thinks they need to add exactly Player X to put them over the top and win a WS next year, yes, they will probably "overpay" (essentially putting a value on Player X that is higher than their objective value) to get that player.

That doesn't mean that the objective value place on Player X was wrong, just that circumstances led to a team "overpaying" for them.

I expect that BTV probably has a negative value assigned to Dylan Cease right now, suggesting that Toronto overpaid when they committed to a 7 yr./$210 million contract for him. And, objectively, that is probably true. If they wanted to trade Cease right now, they would probably have to eat some of his contract to get that done. But, because they no doubt view him as a critical piece to winning a WS in 2026, they were willing to "overpay" for him.

BTV would work perfectly if all inputs were constant but obviously they’re not. The deal is between 2 teams(usually) one may have unlimited $$$$ and unlimited prospect talent. The other could have no money and no minor league talent. The Value needs of each team is entirely different.

And BTV notes that:

Will our numbers be right all the time?

No, because that would be impossible, because team needs are different and in-house models vary. And it’s important to note that we are not trying to be predictive. But we do think they are reasonable estimates — reasonable enough for fans to enjoy using them as a basis for our popular Trade Simulator. We are also transparent about how our numbers match real life.

As fans, however, who don't have access to every team's proprietary models - BTV provides a good, neutral, third party evaluation to assess whether a particular trade is in the ballpark of being "balanced."

[Goldfan]

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

That's why it is so hard to rebuild small room for error. No guarantees high picks will work out. Tons of busts in mlb drsft

Certainly that is true. The math from the first trade by Bloom probably points to the equations he is using to win this game. He gave up $10.6M of value in the Gray trade and received $23.7M of value per BTV or $13.1M of excess value. I am guessing by running up the bidding on Donovan, he is trying to receive more than $13.1M of excess value on the Donovan trade, if it happens. Presumably if enough excess value trades are made, the percentage increases that enough of the prospects come through it is a winning situation over time.

Its fascinating looking at all the proposed Donovan trades on BTV right now. Some of the posters have the Cards receiving less back than what they trade away. I can't see 1 single possibility of that happening. Almost all of them equalize out the trade value with a quantity for quality trade. I can't see that happening either.

55 Grade prospects have values all over the place on BTV ranging from about $12M to $30M+. I would guess Bloom is going to try and get 2 55s at least for Donovan if not more with a total BTV somewhere in the $42-48M range. I don't know how many more, if any, trades the Cards have to create that differential. But, if he can get to the same level with Donovan as he did with Gray and maybe another 55 for Contreras, then the Cards have reduced the roster valuation difference over time by $25-40M via trades. Of course they won't all work out. But, if they end up with 5 high end prospects for Donovan, Gray, and Contreras, don't at least 1 or 2 have to work out? Then if 2 or 3 of our current top 7 work out, then you have a core. By working out, I mean a minimum level of 2-3 WAR player consistently.

So do all MLB teams have this BTV book and this is how trades Finalize……..Only if these values somehow align?? The Sox want to win now and required a top of rotation SP. The Cards received a minor leaguer and a bottom rotation starter. Sox don’t care about Grays age or salary wanting to win now. Cards are rebuilding on hope and not MLB production. New Cards players may NEVER produce a MLB return. Completely different NEEDS for each team. So how does this correlate to some BTV value?
And trades are now judged by BTV values??
If Cards prospects produce 0 value going forward and Sonny wins 16games on a WS Boston team next season what’s the BTV???

Here:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

if you look under the "About" drop down menu, you can read up on how they put a value on major and minor league players.

This must be a kissing cousin to WAR

Well, yeah, they have to calculate the value of a player's on-field production and compare it to his salary to determine what his "surplus value" is. A WAR methodology is the best way to quantify that for every player - in particular when you have to put all position players and pitchers on a common scale.

The “value” of a player to Yanks, Sox, LA is completely different than the “value”to the Marlins, PItts, Cincy. So attempting say that the Cards received 13mil excess value in the trade is useless. The value lies in what each teams NEEDS, not some hypothetical number given to each player. Especially a minor league player.

Let’s just look at salary. How do you assign a negative value to a players salary if you’re dealing with teams who have virtually unlimited budgets? Those team only want the best players and don’t really care about salary and yet BTV seems to assume that salaries should be equally compared across all teams. Great distortion in just the salary input.

They put what their model says is an objective value on that player's production. That baseline value applies to any team who might have that player (and their contract).

But if a particular contending team thinks they need to add exactly Player X to put them over the top and win a WS next year, yes, they will probably "overpay" (essentially putting a value on Player X that is higher than their objective value) to get that player.

That doesn't mean that the objective value place on Player X was wrong, just that circumstances led to a team "overpaying" for them.

I expect that BTV probably has a negative value assigned to Dylan Cease right now, suggesting that Toronto overpaid when they committed to a 7 yr./$210 million contract for him. And, objectively, that is probably true. If they wanted to trade Cease right now, they would probably have to eat some of his contract to get that done. But, because they no doubt view him as a critical piece to winning a WS in 2026, they were willing to "overpay" for him.

BTV would work perfectly if all inputs were constant but obviously they’re not. The deal is between 2 teams(usually) one may have unlimited $$$$ and unlimited prospect talent. The other could have no money and no minor league talent. The Value needs of each team is entirely different.

And BTV notes that:

Will our numbers be right all the time?

No, because that would be impossible, because team needs are different and in-house models vary. And it’s important to note that we are not trying to be predictive. But we do think they are reasonable estimates — reasonable enough for fans to enjoy using them as a basis for our popular Trade Simulator. We are also transparent about how our numbers match real life.

As fans, however, who don't have access to every team's proprietary models - BTV provides a good, neutral, third party evaluation to assess whether a particular trade is in the ballpark of being "balanced."

Are MLB trades meant to satisfy an equal value exchange or balance? I always thought trades were meant to hopefully fill a need for each team which may be completely different, opposite, or without true reason but to only the acquiring team. This new age concept that team A must receive 2 apples in exchange for Team B’s 2 oranges is lazy

[Carp4Cy]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

Well the Cards have a heck of a large geographic fans base , but games on TV in many of the cities are just not accessible under the current model. If we could fix that in a way that people would pay for then we do have the numbers to massively increase that TV revenue, also provided that we put a product on the field worth holding our attention and a manager that didn’t cause cringe after every game when he speaks on TV

[mattmitchl44]

That's why it is so hard to rebuild small room for error. No guarantees high picks will work out. Tons of busts in mlb drsft

Certainly that is true. The math from the first trade by Bloom probably points to the equations he is using to win this game. He gave up $10.6M of value in the Gray trade and received $23.7M of value per BTV or $13.1M of excess value. I am guessing by running up the bidding on Donovan, he is trying to receive more than $13.1M of excess value on the Donovan trade, if it happens. Presumably if enough excess value trades are made, the percentage increases that enough of the prospects come through it is a winning situation over time.

Its fascinating looking at all the proposed Donovan trades on BTV right now. Some of the posters have the Cards receiving less back than what they trade away. I can't see 1 single possibility of that happening. Almost all of them equalize out the trade value with a quantity for quality trade. I can't see that happening either.

55 Grade prospects have values all over the place on BTV ranging from about $12M to $30M+. I would guess Bloom is going to try and get 2 55s at least for Donovan if not more with a total BTV somewhere in the $42-48M range. I don't know how many more, if any, trades the Cards have to create that differential. But, if he can get to the same level with Donovan as he did with Gray and maybe another 55 for Contreras, then the Cards have reduced the roster valuation difference over time by $25-40M via trades. Of course they won't all work out. But, if they end up with 5 high end prospects for Donovan, Gray, and Contreras, don't at least 1 or 2 have to work out? Then if 2 or 3 of our current top 7 work out, then you have a core. By working out, I mean a minimum level of 2-3 WAR player consistently.

So do all MLB teams have this BTV book and this is how trades Finalize……..Only if these values somehow align?? The Sox want to win now and required a top of rotation SP. The Cards received a minor leaguer and a bottom rotation starter. Sox don’t care about Grays age or salary wanting to win now. Cards are rebuilding on hope and not MLB production. New Cards players may NEVER produce a MLB return. Completely different NEEDS for each team. So how does this correlate to some BTV value?
And trades are now judged by BTV values??
If Cards prospects produce 0 value going forward and Sonny wins 16games on a WS Boston team next season what’s the BTV???

Here:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

if you look under the "About" drop down menu, you can read up on how they put a value on major and minor league players.

This must be a kissing cousin to WAR

Well, yeah, they have to calculate the value of a player's on-field production and compare it to his salary to determine what his "surplus value" is. A WAR methodology is the best way to quantify that for every player - in particular when you have to put all position players and pitchers on a common scale.

The “value” of a player to Yanks, Sox, LA is completely different than the “value”to the Marlins, PItts, Cincy. So attempting say that the Cards received 13mil excess value in the trade is useless. The value lies in what each teams NEEDS, not some hypothetical number given to each player. Especially a minor league player.

Let’s just look at salary. How do you assign a negative value to a players salary if you’re dealing with teams who have virtually unlimited budgets? Those team only want the best players and don’t really care about salary and yet BTV seems to assume that salaries should be equally compared across all teams. Great distortion in just the salary input.

They put what their model says is an objective value on that player's production. That baseline value applies to any team who might have that player (and their contract).

But if a particular contending team thinks they need to add exactly Player X to put them over the top and win a WS next year, yes, they will probably "overpay" (essentially putting a value on Player X that is higher than their objective value) to get that player.

That doesn't mean that the objective value place on Player X was wrong, just that circumstances led to a team "overpaying" for them.

I expect that BTV probably has a negative value assigned to Dylan Cease right now, suggesting that Toronto overpaid when they committed to a 7 yr./$210 million contract for him. And, objectively, that is probably true. If they wanted to trade Cease right now, they would probably have to eat some of his contract to get that done. But, because they no doubt view him as a critical piece to winning a WS in 2026, they were willing to "overpay" for him.

BTV would work perfectly if all inputs were constant but obviously they’re not. The deal is between 2 teams(usually) one may have unlimited $$$$ and unlimited prospect talent. The other could have no money and no minor league talent. The Value needs of each team is entirely different.

And BTV notes that:

Will our numbers be right all the time?

No, because that would be impossible, because team needs are different and in-house models vary. And it’s important to note that we are not trying to be predictive. But we do think they are reasonable estimates — reasonable enough for fans to enjoy using them as a basis for our popular Trade Simulator. We are also transparent about how our numbers match real life.

As fans, however, who don't have access to every team's proprietary models - BTV provides a good, neutral, third party evaluation to assess whether a particular trade is in the ballpark of being "balanced."

Are MLB trades meant to satisfy an equal value exchange or balance? I always thought trades were meant to hopefully fill a need for each team which may be completely different, opposite, or without true reason but to only the acquiring team. This new age concept that team A must receive 2 apples in exchange for Team B’s 2 oranges is lazy

Just because the Cardinals need X doesn't mean that some other team will give them X for Donovan, even if the other team wants Donovan.

The Cardinals need prospects and some other team, who wants Donovan, will give them the smallest value in prospects that they can to get Donovan. But another team isn't going give them what they believe to be twice or three times Donovan's value in prospects.

[ICCFIM2]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

Well the Cards have a heck of a large geographic fans base , but games on TV in many of the cities are just not accessible under the current model. If we could fix that in a way that people would pay for then we do have the numbers to massively increase that TV revenue, also provided that we put a product on the field worth holding our attention and a manager that didn’t cause cringe after every game when he speaks on TV

Geographically we do. But take the Dodgers for example. There is 10 million people in LA county alone. They also have a wide geographic area with a much higher population density. They have also tapped into the Japanese market. The Cards could increase their revenue by being more savvy. But, there are built in advantages that LA and other high density population areas have the Cards cannot replicate.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Again I propose subdivision based on wealth.

AL Beast
Yanks Boston Mets Philly Baltimore

AL Least
Detroit Cleveland Tampa Bay twins Miami

AL Best
Houston Texas Seattle SF Anaheim

NL Beast
Atlanta Washington Cubs LA SD

NL Least
Cincinnati STL Pitt Milwaukee white Sox

NL Best

[Goldfan]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

Well the Cards have a heck of a large geographic fans base , but games on TV in many of the cities are just not accessible under the current model. If we could fix that in a way that people would pay for then we do have the numbers to massively increase that TV revenue, also provided that we put a product on the field worth holding our attention and a manager that didn’t cause cringe after every game when he speaks on TV

Geographically we do. But take the Dodgers for example. There is 10 million people in LA county alone. They also have a wide geographic area with a much higher population density. They have also tapped into the Japanese market. The Cards could increase their revenue by being more savvy. But, there are built in advantages that LA and other high density population areas have the Cards cannot replicate.

STL metro with around 3mil population would come close to rivaling LA with butts in Stadium and eyeballs watching the games. LA is full of people who could care less about watching the Dodgers. But BDW has all but destroyed this fan base……I’m on record stating that if he continues down this road a couple more years….with old die hard fans becoming immobile and dying out, the youth will not return. They don’t have the same passion for the game as the older generations.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

Well the Cards have a heck of a large geographic fans base , but games on TV in many of the cities are just not accessible under the current model. If we could fix that in a way that people would pay for then we do have the numbers to massively increase that TV revenue, also provided that we put a product on the field worth holding our attention and a manager that didn’t cause cringe after every game when he speaks on TV

Geographically we do. But take the Dodgers for example. There is 10 million people in LA county alone. They also have a wide geographic area with a much higher population density. They have also tapped into the Japanese market. The Cards could increase their revenue by being more savvy. But, there are built in advantages that LA and other high density population areas have the Cards cannot replicate.

STL metro with around 3mil population would come close to rivaling LA with butts in Stadium and eyeballs watching the games. LA is full of people who could care less about watching the Dodgers. But BDW has all but destroyed this fan base……I’m on record stating that if he continues down this road a couple more years….with old die hard fans becoming immobile and dying out, the youth will not return. They don’t have the same passion for the game as the older generations.

Sounds like going to church. Once the remaining old disappears, not enough youth to back fill.

[Pura Vida]

2025 MLB team payrolls
(In present-day value calculated by MLB)

New York Mets, $323,099,999
Los Angeles Dodgers, $321,287,291
New York Yankees, $293,488,972
Philadelphia Phillies, $284,210,820
Toronto Blue Jays, $239,642,532
Texas Rangers, $220,541,332
Houston Astros, $220,217,813
Atlanta Braves, $214,836,398
San Diego Padres, 208,909,333
Chicago Cubs, $196,288,250
Arizona Diamondbacks, $195,294,235
Boston Red Sox, $193,629,093
Los Angeles Angels, $190,508,096
San Francisco Giants, $173,019,524
Baltimore Orioles, $162,314,278
Seattle Mariners, $146,793,414
Detroit Tigers, $143,193,033
Minnesota Twins, $142,762,022
St. Louis Cardinals, $141,455,581
Kansas City Royals, $130,001,503
Colorado Rockies, $120,693,976
Cincinnati Reds, $115,466,833
Milwaukee Brewers, $115,136,227
Washington Nationals, $107,653,761
Cleveland Guardians, $100,522,729
Pittsburgh Pirates, $87,645,246
Chicago White Sox, $82,279,825
Tampa Bay Rays, $79,216,312
Athletics, $73,118,981
Miami Marlins, $67,412,619

[Goldfan]

Dodgers
Yanks
Mets
Padres
Braves
cubs (kinda)
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

If you are going to play with the big boys:
If you are going to charge $ with the big boys:

If this team did not have Albert when we did---- PITT.

It is difficult to find exact tv revenues by team. But, the Dodgers were reported to have non-national tv revenues of $300M+ for 2025 compared to the Cards $55M. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies were all in excess of $100M and maybe much more.

The Cardinals will never compete with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets based on revenue and likely never resources provided by the owners either. Unless baseball miraculously puts a salary cap on, that means the Cardinals will be outspent by $100M+ annually by at least those teams if not other teams. Only way to compete will be savvy prospect identification and development and savvy trades. That is a hard way to make a living when those teams are also outspending the Cards on resources in those areas as well. To be honest, the Cards will need to hit a HR every other draft, which based on what we have seen the last 20 years is almost impossible to do.

Well the Cards have a heck of a large geographic fans base , but games on TV in many of the cities are just not accessible under the current model. If we could fix that in a way that people would pay for then we do have the numbers to massively increase that TV revenue, also provided that we put a product on the field worth holding our attention and a manager that didn’t cause cringe after every game when he speaks on TV

Geographically we do. But take the Dodgers for example. There is 10 million people in LA county alone. They also have a wide geographic area with a much higher population density. They have also tapped into the Japanese market. The Cards could increase their revenue by being more savvy. But, there are built in advantages that LA and other high density population areas have the Cards cannot replicate.

STL metro with around 3mil population would come close to rivaling LA with butts in Stadium and eyeballs watching the games. LA is full of people who could care less about watching the Dodgers. But BDW has all but destroyed this fan base……I’m on record stating that if he continues down this road a couple more years….with old die hard fans becoming immobile and dying out, the youth will not return. They don’t have the same passion for the game as the older generations.

Sounds like going to church. Once the remaining old disappears, not enough youth to back fill.

Dewitts are making a fatal mistake thinking Busch will fill back to 3mil+…..40 under crowd isn’t wired like us old rabid baseball fans