STLtoday.com

12xu wrote: ↑02 Dec 2025 19:01 pm Toronto signed him for 3 years, $30 MM!

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 03:58 am This is a situation where a team has to trust its scouting to project how Ponce's arsenal of pitches is going to play in MLB. At $10 million a year, for a team with a budget like Toronto's, this is no more than a small loss if he doesn't work out to maybe a significant win if he does.

At that price, "break even" is him being ~a 1+ fWAR pitcher (approximately like Mitchell Parker of the Nationals was last year, 0.9 fWAR).

Signing a guy who you expect to be a SP for $10 million AAV is just about the cost of what "lottery tickets" go for in MLB in 2025.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:03 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 03:58 am This is a situation where a team has to trust its scouting to project how Ponce's arsenal of pitches is going to play in MLB. At $10 million a year, for a team with a budget like Toronto's, this is no more than a small loss if he doesn't work out to maybe a significant win if he does.

At that price, "break even" is him being ~a 1+ fWAR pitcher (approximately like Mitchell Parker of the Nationals was last year, 0.9 fWAR).

Signing a guy who you expect to be a SP for $10 million AAV is just about the cost of what "lottery tickets" go for in MLB in 2025.

Apologizes matt

I scoffed at your $8M AAV idea, can't believe he got $10M AAV and three years.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:49 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:03 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 03:58 am This is a situation where a team has to trust its scouting to project how Ponce's arsenal of pitches is going to play in MLB. At $10 million a year, for a team with a budget like Toronto's, this is no more than a small loss if he doesn't work out to maybe a significant win if he does.

At that price, "break even" is him being ~a 1+ fWAR pitcher (approximately like Mitchell Parker of the Nationals was last year, 0.9 fWAR).

Signing a guy who you expect to be a SP for $10 million AAV is just about the cost of what "lottery tickets" go for in MLB in 2025.

Apologizes matt

I scoffed at your $8M AAV idea, can't believe he got $10M AAV and three years.

Yes, in 2025 you basically can't get anybody for $8 million a year as a FA who you are going to have a lot of confidence in, other than maybe non-closer middle relievers.

Also why I note that you should lock up your young players if you think they are even 2+ fWAR for $6 or $7 million for multiple years.

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 12:35 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:49 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:03 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 03:58 am This is a situation where a team has to trust its scouting to project how Ponce's arsenal of pitches is going to play in MLB. At $10 million a year, for a team with a budget like Toronto's, this is no more than a small loss if he doesn't work out to maybe a significant win if he does.

At that price, "break even" is him being ~a 1+ fWAR pitcher (approximately like Mitchell Parker of the Nationals was last year, 0.9 fWAR).

Signing a guy who you expect to be a SP for $10 million AAV is just about the cost of what "lottery tickets" go for in MLB in 2025.

Apologizes matt

I scoffed at your $8M AAV idea, can't believe he got $10M AAV and three years.

Yes, in 2025 you basically can't get anybody for $8 million a year as a FA who you are going to have a lot of confidence in, other than maybe non-closer middle relievers.

Also why I note that you should lock up your young players if you think they are even 2+ fWAR for $6 or $7 million for multiple years.

Toronto also has had some good results with pitching.
IF Ponce possesses the foundation they like they might see
some upside.

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 13:57 pm

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 12:35 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:49 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:03 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 03:58 am This is a situation where a team has to trust its scouting to project how Ponce's arsenal of pitches is going to play in MLB. At $10 million a year, for a team with a budget like Toronto's, this is no more than a small loss if he doesn't work out to maybe a significant win if he does.

At that price, "break even" is him being ~a 1+ fWAR pitcher (approximately like Mitchell Parker of the Nationals was last year, 0.9 fWAR).

Signing a guy who you expect to be a SP for $10 million AAV is just about the cost of what "lottery tickets" go for in MLB in 2025.

Apologizes matt

I scoffed at your $8M AAV idea, can't believe he got $10M AAV and three years.

Yes, in 2025 you basically can't get anybody for $8 million a year as a FA who you are going to have a lot of confidence in, other than maybe non-closer middle relievers.

Also why I note that you should lock up your young players if you think they are even 2+ fWAR for $6 or $7 million for multiple years.

Toronto also has had some good results with pitching.
IF Ponce possesses the foundation they like they might see
some upside.

Toronto has good results? This dude was let go by Atlanta...

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:15 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 13:57 pm

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 12:35 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:49 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:03 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 03:58 am This is a situation where a team has to trust its scouting to project how Ponce's arsenal of pitches is going to play in MLB. At $10 million a year, for a team with a budget like Toronto's, this is no more than a small loss if he doesn't work out to maybe a significant win if he does.

At that price, "break even" is him being ~a 1+ fWAR pitcher (approximately like Mitchell Parker of the Nationals was last year, 0.9 fWAR).

Signing a guy who you expect to be a SP for $10 million AAV is just about the cost of what "lottery tickets" go for in MLB in 2025.

Apologizes matt

I scoffed at your $8M AAV idea, can't believe he got $10M AAV and three years.

Yes, in 2025 you basically can't get anybody for $8 million a year as a FA who you are going to have a lot of confidence in, other than maybe non-closer middle relievers.

Also why I note that you should lock up your young players if you think they are even 2+ fWAR for $6 or $7 million for multiple years.

Toronto also has had some good results with pitching.
IF Ponce possesses the foundation they like they might see
some upside.

Toronto has good results? This dude was let go by Atlanta...

is he going to Atlanta?

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:17 pm

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:15 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 13:57 pm

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 12:35 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:49 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:03 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 03:58 am This is a situation where a team has to trust its scouting to project how Ponce's arsenal of pitches is going to play in MLB. At $10 million a year, for a team with a budget like Toronto's, this is no more than a small loss if he doesn't work out to maybe a significant win if he does.

At that price, "break even" is him being ~a 1+ fWAR pitcher (approximately like Mitchell Parker of the Nationals was last year, 0.9 fWAR).

Signing a guy who you expect to be a SP for $10 million AAV is just about the cost of what "lottery tickets" go for in MLB in 2025.

Apologizes matt

I scoffed at your $8M AAV idea, can't believe he got $10M AAV and three years.

Yes, in 2025 you basically can't get anybody for $8 million a year as a FA who you are going to have a lot of confidence in, other than maybe non-closer middle relievers.

Also why I note that you should lock up your young players if you think they are even 2+ fWAR for $6 or $7 million for multiple years.

Toronto also has had some good results with pitching.
IF Ponce possesses the foundation they like they might see
some upside.

Toronto has good results? This dude was let go by Atlanta...

is he going to Atlanta?

No, they let him go after picking him up in September.

Reading is hard

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:27 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:17 pm

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:15 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 13:57 pm

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 12:35 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:49 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:03 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 03:58 am This is a situation where a team has to trust its scouting to project how Ponce's arsenal of pitches is going to play in MLB. At $10 million a year, for a team with a budget like Toronto's, this is no more than a small loss if he doesn't work out to maybe a significant win if he does.

At that price, "break even" is him being ~a 1+ fWAR pitcher (approximately like Mitchell Parker of the Nationals was last year, 0.9 fWAR).

Signing a guy who you expect to be a SP for $10 million AAV is just about the cost of what "lottery tickets" go for in MLB in 2025.

Apologizes matt

I scoffed at your $8M AAV idea, can't believe he got $10M AAV and three years.

Yes, in 2025 you basically can't get anybody for $8 million a year as a FA who you are going to have a lot of confidence in, other than maybe non-closer middle relievers.

Also why I note that you should lock up your young players if you think they are even 2+ fWAR for $6 or $7 million for multiple years.

Toronto also has had some good results with pitching.
IF Ponce possesses the foundation they like they might see
some upside.

Toronto has good results? This dude was let go by Atlanta...

is he going to Atlanta?

No, they let him go after picking him up in September.

Reading is hard

Apparently since the guy
is going to Toronto.
Did Atlanta give 3/$30

He hasn't pitched in MLB since Pitt, enlighten me

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:46 pm

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:27 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:17 pm

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 14:15 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 13:57 pm

renostl wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 12:35 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:49 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 09:03 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Dec 2025 03:58 am This is a situation where a team has to trust its scouting to project how Ponce's arsenal of pitches is going to play in MLB. At $10 million a year, for a team with a budget like Toronto's, this is no more than a small loss if he doesn't work out to maybe a significant win if he does.

At that price, "break even" is him being ~a 1+ fWAR pitcher (approximately like Mitchell Parker of the Nationals was last year, 0.9 fWAR).

Signing a guy who you expect to be a SP for $10 million AAV is just about the cost of what "lottery tickets" go for in MLB in 2025.

Apologizes matt

I scoffed at your $8M AAV idea, can't believe he got $10M AAV and three years.

Yes, in 2025 you basically can't get anybody for $8 million a year as a FA who you are going to have a lot of confidence in, other than maybe non-closer middle relievers.

Also why I note that you should lock up your young players if you think they are even 2+ fWAR for $6 or $7 million for multiple years.

Toronto also has had some good results with pitching.
IF Ponce possesses the foundation they like they might see
some upside.

Toronto has good results? This dude was let go by Atlanta...

is he going to Atlanta?

No, they let him go after picking him up in September.

Reading is hard

Apparently since the guy
is going to Toronto.
Did Atlanta give 3/$30

He hasn't pitched in MLB since Pitt, enlighten me

[shirt]...I'm an idiot...I was thinking Manoah.

He was let go by ATL

My apologies. I'm a dim bulb