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Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 01 Dec 2025 00:12 am
by ICCFIM2
Melville wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 15:45 pm
ramfandan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:28 pm
https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like
With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )
2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M
Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.
As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .
I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
Wouldn't you want it to be a team option in year 4 with a buyout of say $5M? It gives him a bit less guaranteed money. But, the contract keeps Donovan's trade value relatively high. You might have to offer him slightly more dollars to accept, 3/$33M say. That allows the Cardinals to build around him now, but decide to trade him for a lot later. If Donovan has the control, his trade value diminishes.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 01 Dec 2025 00:34 am
by Carp4Cy
ramfandan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:28 pm
https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like
With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )
2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M
Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.
As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .
I'd much rather extend Donny than extend Oli, but I fear they will do just the opposite.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 01 Dec 2025 01:20 am
by renostl
ramfandan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:28 pm
https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like
With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )
2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M
Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.
As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .
The math is good. It also only pays him through his 33 season I believe so also good.
I guess it is how one sees the value of what he is as a 2B/UT. I see $19M as full market value and not getting
anything for giving him double the next 2 seasons. Fangraphs is far superior in this projection than I.
However at some point your minors need to supply a replacement for a 2B/UT and I think if his
salary was $19M today his trade market would drastically shrink. That if this what it would take
to keep him, I'd be a little more in favor of moving him, jmo and that not about Bills wallet.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 01 Dec 2025 08:10 am
by ecleme22
If you really think Donovan can be part of the rebuild, then trade him now and sign him in two years.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 01 Dec 2025 08:35 am
by rockondlouie
Big Donny fan
Also C. Bloom's best trade chip and shot at getting a young major league starting pitcher w/upside and years of control or a AA/AAA pitcher ready to jump to MLB by 2027.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 08:26 am
by Melville
ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑01 Dec 2025 00:12 am
Melville wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 15:45 pm
ramfandan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:28 pm
https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like
With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )
2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M
Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.
As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .
I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
Wouldn't you want it to be a team option in year 4 with a buyout of say $5M? It gives him a bit less guaranteed money. But, the contract keeps Donovan's trade value relatively high. You might have to offer him slightly more dollars to accept, 3/$33M say. That allows the Cardinals to build around him now, but decide to trade him for a lot later. If Donovan has the control, his trade value diminishes.
Making it a player option would increase the odds of him accepting the extension.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 08:30 am
by rockondlouie
dugoutrex wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:53 pm
Jatalk wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:45 pm
ramfandan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:28 pm
https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like
With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )
2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M
Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.
As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .
I like Donovan. I would like to keep him but we have two years to decide on future contract, correct?
well, he is going to be gone in a few weeks so it doesn't really matter
+1
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 08:33 am
by Melville
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑01 Dec 2025 00:34 am
ramfandan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:28 pm
https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like
With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )
2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M
Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.
As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .
I'd much rather extend Donny than extend Oli, but I fear they will do just the opposite.
Absolutely correct on both points.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 08:43 am
by sikeston bulldog2
Melville wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 17:58 pm
Youboughtit wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 17:00 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 16:37 pm
Melville wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 15:45 pm
ramfandan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:28 pm
https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like
With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )
2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M
Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.
As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .
I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
You’re totally right, but that won’t stop the “trade everyone” prospect geeks from taking a giant dump all over your plan.
They think every prospect we acquire will be the next Bobby Witt Jr. or Paul Skenes, or if we acquire quantity over quality that half of them will magically become superstars.
Surrender, tank, and save BDW money is their primary objective and golden ticket to the promised land.
So offer a 30-% below market deal that will make him a FA at 33? He would be an idiot to accept that. This will be his only chance at a long term payday and to play for a contender of his choice.
To stay they would have to offer more than market. This is not a “sign for less situations”.
It is not "below market", nor a "sign for less" situation.
Rather, it is a brilliant and classic risk/reward scenario.
Under my perfectly analyzed scenario, Donovan would be gaining a guaranteed 16M per season for 2 additional seasons or have the option of entering FA after pocketing 17M for one additional season.
With injury and performance factors being wild card factors, there is zero guarantee he would do better by making a bet on himself 2 years from now.
Perhaps he would.
Perhaps not.
A lot can happen in 2 years.
45M in guaranteed money is not one penny undervalued, since he would enter the FA market at age 32 in a worst-case scenario.
It is simply a spot on math calculation, which Donovan would almost certainly strongly consider.
45M guaranteed NOW is life changing money - and would reduce uncertainties for him.
Cornelius is correct: I am totally right.
This is unquestionably the CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION.
A lot can happen in two years. That’s the edge. So the math problem is simple1/3 verse 2/3. Meaning- will he get better? Will he stay steady? Will he regress? One two three.
So take a sure thing now, or wager time and 2/3 steady/decline performance, on your future- the answer seems clear.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 08:47 am
by Melville
sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 08:43 am
Melville wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 17:58 pm
Youboughtit wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 17:00 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 16:37 pm
Melville wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 15:45 pm
ramfandan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 14:28 pm
https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like
With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )
2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M
Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.
As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .
I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
You’re totally right, but that won’t stop the “trade everyone” prospect geeks from taking a giant dump all over your plan.
They think every prospect we acquire will be the next Bobby Witt Jr. or Paul Skenes, or if we acquire quantity over quality that half of them will magically become superstars.
Surrender, tank, and save BDW money is their primary objective and golden ticket to the promised land.
So offer a 30-% below market deal that will make him a FA at 33? He would be an idiot to accept that. This will be his only chance at a long term payday and to play for a contender of his choice.
To stay they would have to offer more than market. This is not a “sign for less situations”.
It is not "below market", nor a "sign for less" situation.
Rather, it is a brilliant and classic risk/reward scenario.
Under my perfectly analyzed scenario, Donovan would be gaining a guaranteed 16M per season for 2 additional seasons or have the option of entering FA after pocketing 17M for one additional season.
With injury and performance factors being wild card factors, there is zero guarantee he would do better by making a bet on himself 2 years from now.
Perhaps he would.
Perhaps not.
A lot can happen in 2 years.
45M in guaranteed money is not one penny undervalued, since he would enter the FA market at age 32 in a worst-case scenario.
It is simply a spot on math calculation, which Donovan would almost certainly strongly consider.
45M guaranteed NOW is life changing money - and would reduce uncertainties for him.
Cornelius is correct: I am totally right.
This is unquestionably the CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION.
A lot can happen in two years. That’s the edge. So the math problem is simple1/3 verse 2/3. Meaning- will he get better? Will he stay steady? Will he regress? One two three.
So take a sure thing now, or wager time and 2/3 steady/decline performance, on your future- the answer seems clear.
I would argue that Donovan is unquestionably the surest thing on the roster currently.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 14:19 pm
by 45s
He’s a quality player
Desired my many
Two years from free agency
Why would he extend?
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 16:03 pm
by Carp4Cy
45s wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 14:19 pm
He’s a quality player
Desired my many
Two years from free agency
Why would he extend?
to make more $ in 2026. Its not like we are anywhere close to a luxury tax.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 17:01 pm
by renostl
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Dec 2025 08:10 am
If you really think Donovan can be part of the rebuild, then trade him now and sign him in two years.
Term likely goes into an older age season at all whatever his AAV lands.
A one shot at an apple situation gets created and he will sell to the highest bidder.
Today a 5-6 year term still gets those seasons to and including age 33-34 season.
a easy $60+ million over 5 seasons. To equal that modest amount he has to get at least $16 AAV/3years
after getting approximately $12 for both '26 and '27.
What is not known is Donovan's desire. It might not be his to stay.
or just to test a market that he sees himself as a hot commodity
Imagine having 15 companies saying they want you with millions of dollars.
IF true he has to be dealt now.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 17:22 pm
by Melville
45s wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 14:19 pm
He’s a quality player
Desired my many
Two years from free agency
Why would he extend?
45M in guaranteed money and a chance to stay 4 years where he says he prefers to play, as a trade off for delaying his FA decision by one year is not a bad outcome for him.
After all, his value could fall for a variety of reasons 2 years from now.
All depends on what he is thinking about.
That would be a lot of $ for a middle infielder/corner outfielder super utility player with limited power to turn down.
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
by ramfandan
Many forget Donovan had a significant groin injury keeping him out for quite a few
Yes, he has healed from that but might he be more susceptible to groin issue in 2026 ????
Groins are tricky area. Ask Caitlyn Clark .
Re: What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 19:34 pm
by 45s
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 16:03 pm
45s wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 14:19 pm
He’s a quality player
Desired my many
Two years from free agency
Why would he extend?
to make more $ in 2026. Its not like we are anywhere close to a luxury tax.
Being stuck in STL for five more years denies him prime years to sell to highest bidder……maybe his last opportunity