Tekoah Roby - cautionary tale

[Imperial Capitalist]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

I second the motion, and add...

[mattmitchl44]

It's closer to reality to say that, even at a $170 to $180 million payroll, if the Cardinals are going to have 90+ win talent, they can only afford to have about 1/3 of it come from full market cost veterans and need about 2/3 of it to come from cost controlled ARB (or signed to a contract that pays them at ARB rates) or pre-ARB players.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

Roby was a high risk high reward prospect when they got him. He showed electric stuff but also had a history of injury. But they dealt a pitcher that had a large contract in its last year and were going nowhere that year. So they dealt something of no value to them for something with potential value down the road.

Fair question if they could get more. I don't know. I'm betting Mo had feelers out to every contending team at the time and maybe it was the best offer. We will never know. BTW the deal wasn't straight across either.

They also sent Hicks and received John King and Saggese. Saggese has shown potential to be a viable everyday infielder. Needs to grow at the plate next year but I see potential. And yes I know rockandlouie sees a JAG but I see a 50% chance he is better than that. I respect rock and usuallyt we are in sync. But we have a difference of opinion on Saggese. Time will tell. But for those judging Mo on the deal we sent two guys not in our future for an infielder we gave 275 ABs to and a LHP BP guy we gave 126 ip to. That was IMO a good trade for STL.

[C-Unit]

It just may so happen that because of the injuries/setbacks, the time that which Roby/Hjerpe/Mathews will produce at the ML level (if they do) will align closer with Rainiel Rodriguez, Josh Baez and others. And by that time, we should have Winn and Wetherholt (and maybe Herrera) locked down long-term for those players to come up around.

[DwaininAztec]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

It wasn't all that long ago that the Cardinals believed in just that idea, and had more MiLB teams that most of the other MLB teams. Then the MLB tightened things up and now only allows 5 state side minor league teams (Rok, A, A+, AA, AAA)(IIRC). That is when the Cardinal minor leagues slowed, terribly slowed the production of major leaguers.

[Carp4Cy]

I'd make that trade (Monty for Roby + Saggese + King) 100/100 times.

Roby, as long as he remains healthy, has some big upside.

Don't give up on him just yet carp.

That's fine, but its not about that trade anymore. Monty is water under the bridge. Its about the prospects we are about to trade for - and whether they can ever be landscape changing or whether we should spend more ink space discussing other topics like International signings and drafts...

If we get 2 more Roby types from Gray and Nado (we won't), I don't think that gets us materially closer to a pennant before 2030.

[TopofthePerch]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

If you think this is a stupid post your baseball I.Q is near zilch.

[Quincy Varnish]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

If you think this is a stupid post your baseball I.Q is near zilch.

Too many big words.

[cardsrmyteam]

He was a 3rd round HS draftee. We traded for him as a highly regarded SP who had SO success at A+ and a few starts at AA - way back in 2023.

Now he's 24 yo, has been injured multiple times, and will lose all of 2026 to TJ. And he will still need 2027 to rebuild strength and get experience at AAA (only 6 career starts at that level).

Yes we may someday salvage value from him, but the timeline is the problem here. Best case over 5 years from trade to any kind of MLB production is just not efficient. And as we've seen so many things have gone wrong along the way, a prospect coming from that low in the minors may not even ever make it to MLB. Especially pitching. Drafting someone like Wacha (who still had a few injuries but nothing like this) was such a quicker development process. Makes you wonder what Texas knew about Roby's health that made them willing to trade him - adverse selection bias.

Just something to keep in mind as we evaluate new "prospects" that we might acquire this winter. I'm not overly excited until they show they are MLB ready.

But wasn't he supposed to be major league ready per Mo. That was the deadline where we were told we were getting MLB ready talent. I'm still waiting.

[Carp4Cy]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

It doesn’t matter how many we collect, if they keep taking 4-5 years to develop then another 2-4 years to hit their stride, if they ever do, they will trickle out so slowly we won’t possibly reach critical mass.

We have to be faster at developing And faster at evaluating and then moving on if they aren’t working. Where’s Dylan Carlson now?

[juan good eye]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

It doesn’t matter how many we collect, if they keep taking 4-5 years to develop then another 2-4 years to hit their stride, if they ever do, they will trickle out so slowly we won’t possibly reach critical mass.

We have to be faster at developing And faster at evaluating and then moving on if they aren’t working. Where’s Dylan Carlson now?

Well it won’t matter much if the decision makers, front office, scouts and coaches all suck at their jobs. Thanks captain obvious.

If only they were revamping the entire organization.

[Carp4Cy]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

It doesn’t matter how many we collect, if they keep taking 4-5 years to develop then another 2-4 years to hit their stride, if they ever do, they will trickle out so slowly we won’t possibly reach critical mass.

We have to be faster at developing And faster at evaluating and then moving on if they aren’t working. Where’s Dylan Carlson now?

Well it won’t matter much if the decision makers, front office, scouts and coaches all suck at their jobs. Thanks captain obvious.

If only they were revamping the entire organization.

And how many prospects have flopped or gone backwards after reaching the majors? And Oli and his coaches are still here…

[mattmitchl44]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

It doesn’t matter how many we collect, if they keep taking 4-5 years to develop then another 2-4 years to hit their stride, if they ever do, they will trickle out so slowly we won’t possibly reach critical mass.

We have to be faster at developing And faster at evaluating and then moving on if they aren’t working. Where’s Dylan Carlson now?

Yes, the organization has to do a better job of identifying, obtaining, and developing prospects.

As I've noted before, they basically need to successfully matriculate three prospects to the majors every year. If you divide the roster up into 15 high value (5 SPs, 8 starting position players, 1 DH, 1 closer) spots and 11 lower value (7 other RPs, 4 bench players) spots, the steady state roster needs to look something like:

- 3 rookies (2 in lower value spots; 1 in a high value spot) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 2nd year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 3rd year players (2 in lower value spots; 1 in a high value spot) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 ARB-1 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $2.5 million (total ~$7.5 million)
- 3 ARB-2 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $5 million (total ~$15 million)
- 3 ARB-3 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $7.5 million (total ~$22.5 million)
- 8 full market value veterans (3 in lower value spots; 5 in high value spots) taking up a total of ~$120 million in payroll

But to successfully matriculate three prospects to the majors every year, you probably need to have 5 or 6 prospects who you think may be "ML ready" because not all will actually be ready to successfully make the jump.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

It doesn’t matter how many we collect, if they keep taking 4-5 years to develop then another 2-4 years to hit their stride, if they ever do, they will trickle out so slowly we won’t possibly reach critical mass.

We have to be faster at developing And faster at evaluating and then moving on if they aren’t working. Where’s Dylan Carlson now?

Yes, the organization has to do a better job of identifying, obtaining, and developing prospects.

As I've noted before, they basically need to successfully matriculate three prospects to the majors every year. If you divide the roster up into 15 high value (5 SPs, 8 starting position players, 1 DH, 1 closer) spots and 11 lower value (7 other RPs, 4 bench players) spots, the steady state roster needs to look something like:

- 3 rookies (2 in lower value spots; 1 in a high value spot) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 2nd year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 3rd year players (2 in lower value spots; 1 in a high value spot) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 ARB-1 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $2.5 million (total ~$7.5 million)
- 3 ARB-2 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $5 million (total ~$15 million)
- 3 ARB-3 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $7.5 million (total ~$22.5 million)
- 8 full market value veterans (3 in lower value spots; 5 in high value spots) taking up a total of ~$120 million in payroll

But to successfully matriculate three prospects to the majors every year, you probably need to have 5 or 6 prospects who you think may be "ML ready" because not all will actually be ready to successfully make the jump.

Your model of attrition is exactly the model the military uses to recruit. First contact 50 applicants. Next inter view 10. Then test 5. Then physical 3. Then contract 1.

Same principal. The key is a heavy amount of contacts. In tor example that would be a heavy amount of prospects.

[mattmitchl44]

Your model of attrition is exactly the model the military uses to recruit. First contact 50 applicants. Next inter view 10. Then test 5. Then physical 3. Then contract 1.

Same principal. The key is a heavy amount of contacts. In tor example that would be a heavy amount of prospects.

Right.

My point here being, there are some posters who talk about examples of prospects who have failed to try to justify the idea that you can't trust prospects, the Cardinals should depend less on developing them and, presumably, trade more of them to other teams for players when they can. But that is exactly the wrong lesson to learn from prospects failing.

Whether you sign them yourself or inherit their contracts from other teams by trade, the Cardinals payroll can still only support ~8 players on full market value contracts. So you can't trade all of your prospects for Nolan Arenados, Paul Goldschmidts, etc. and have 12, 15, etc. players on full market value contracts on the roster, because you can't afford to pay all of them with a $170, $180 million payroll.

The Cardinals simply have no choice - they have to have ~18 guys on the roster who are effectively pre-ARB or ARB year players.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Your model of attrition is exactly the model the military uses to recruit. First contact 50 applicants. Next inter view 10. Then test 5. Then physical 3. Then contract 1.

Same principal. The key is a heavy amount of contacts. In tor example that would be a heavy amount of prospects.

Right.

My point here being, there are some posters who talk about examples of prospects who have failed to try to justify the idea that you can't trust prospects, the Cardinals should depend less on developing them and, presumably, trade more of them to other teams for players when they can. But that is exactly the wrong lesson to learn from prospects failing.

Whether you sign them yourself or inherit their contracts from other teams by trade, the Cardinals payroll can still only support ~8 players on full market value contracts. So you can't trade all of your prospects for Nolan Arenados, Paul Goldschmidts, etc. and have 12, 15, etc. players on full market value contracts on the roster, because you can't afford to pay all of them with a $170, $180 million payroll.

The Cardinals simply have no choice - they have to have ~18 guys on the roster who are effectively pre-ARB or ARB year players.

Very interesting. Never really seen the money side broke down into these catagories. And then the total cost after each catagory is reached.


According to your model, where does the team sit currently. Are we upside down, treading water, have a leak, or good.