The NTC Guys- Sonny Gray

[ramfandan]

I areas as far as the quote from Gray “I came here to win”

lol he signed after the Cardinals finished 20 under .500 in 2023.

He came where the most money was offered.

I'm not sure about that. He signed early and by all indications, he has wanted to be here.

Worries me though that when Gray was asked if he would waive his NTC for Bloom . Sonny repiied, 'Don't bet on it ! Ut oh !!

[Talkin' Baseball]

I areas as far as the quote from Gray “I came here to win”

lol he signed after the Cardinals finished 20 under .500 in 2023.

He came where the most money was offered.

I'm not sure about that. He signed early and by all indications, he has wanted to be here.

Worries me though that when Gray was asked if he would waive his NTC for Bloom . Sonny repiied, 'Don't bet on it ! Ut oh !!

He did an interview after his last start in SF, and sure sounded like someone open to a trade, and didn't sound up for staying in a losing situation if given a choice. We'll see.

[Melville]

Keep.
Need to add pitching, not reduce it.

A 4 month $40 million mentor on a $125 million payroll
team is a difficult sell. Risk Reward is way off for a 36 y/o
who just completed his best 3 year stretch in 10 years.

Needing 2 pitcher vs 3 is the debate. He is gone in '27
Not a QO guy There is value now vs maybe value at the TD.
Sell, call it good and wish him well.

Keep in mind that virtually everything I post is with the context of creating a scenario in which STL can potentially win 85-86 games in 2026 - and then improve upon that in 2027.
STL needs Gray in STL in 2026 far more than whatever small return dealing him might bring.

[renostl]

Keep.
Need to add pitching, not reduce it.

A 4 month $40 million mentor on a $125 million payroll
team is a difficult sell. Risk Reward is way off for a 36 y/o
who just completed his best 3 year stretch in 10 years.

Needing 2 pitcher vs 3 is the debate. He is gone in '27
Not a QO guy There is value now vs maybe value at the TD.
Sell, call it good and wish him well.

Keep in mind that virtually everything I post is with the context of creating a scenario in which STL can potentially win 85-86 games in 2026 - and then improve upon that in 2027.
STL needs Gray in STL in 2026 far more than whatever small return dealing him might bring.

One doesn't preclude nor guarantee the other.

My debate was in there only being one way to
accomplish a goal. We have both openly admitted not having an feel yet for how Bloom will go forward.
No real knowledge of budget either.

My thought is whatever the budget is the more they have the more possible it is that they might get a player that could sign for 2 or more seasons thus having more impact than 4 months of Sonny and watch him walk away.

[BrockFloodMaris]

The first order of business this offseason needs to be trying to find a trade for the 3 players with no trade clauses. It would be helpful if they could resolve these questions before the winter meetings. Knowing if these players will further define who is on the roster, where opportunities and needs are, as well as what the payroll situation will be. Personally, I would trade all 3 if I could. A few suggestions from me:

Sonny Gray- Unlike Nolan Arenado, I would require a return for Gray in order to move him. There is certainly demand for Gray, and for some teams the option actually is appealing. In some ways, the looming CBA creates the perfect storm to deal our players with no-trade clauses. Contenders who are going for it in 2026 can add quality players (albeit at a high AAV) without the long-term commitment the quality free agents require. Sonny is still a high-performing starter who would benefit most contenders. His contract is not so underwater (Arenado) that you couldn’t eat some of the money, add some money to gain a good prospect, and save some money. We also need to consider how we think about what eating money in his contract means. He was only paid 10M in year one of his contract, 25M in year two, and backloaded to 35M in 2026. Some of the money absorbed is not so much “eaten” as normalizing the AAV.

My proposal- Sonny Gray and 20M cash to the Toronto Blue Jays for Ricky Tiedemann. The money takes the form of 15M paid on 2026 salary and 5M paid to buy out the option for ’27, or salary if the option is exercised. Would Sonny approve going to Toronto? I don’t know, but if winning is really the thing (“I came here to win”, “I expect to win”), they did just go to the World Series. Toronto is losing Chris Bassit and Max Scherzer to free agency, so they definitely have need and some payroll freed up. They also had Jose Berrios end the season on the IL with elbow issues, which should scare the bejeebers out of them. Tiedemann is Toronto’s #4 prospect (not a top 100). He is a 23 year-old 6’4” lefty coming off TJ surgery. He has strikeout stuff. So far in his minor league career he has averaged 14.5 K/9 with a 1.079 WHIP. On the 20/80 scale, his fastball and changeup both grade out at 65. He sat out all season in ’25 and should be ready to go in the spring. Tiedemann last pitched at AAA. He might be available from Toronto because Gray is ready to help them make their run in ’26, Tiedemann might take awhile. The Cardinals can wait if need be.

Second choice destination- Baltimore Orioles. The money proposal for the Orioles is the same as for the Blue Jays. Trade target. Coby Mayo. Mayo is a 23 year-old 1B/3B with power. He has made it to the majors, and so far has not figured things out.

Third choice destination- Detroit Tigers. If the Tigers decide to trade Skubal, a pitcher like Gray would be very valuable.

Other suitors- Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox.

Thanks for the post. It is nicely written. I think of the three NTC guys, Gray will be the least likely to be traded. The Cards have decent internal options to replace Nado and WC. But have NOBODY to replace Sonny Gray. An external acquisition would require spending considerable cash or player(s) to acquire.

[Talkin' Baseball]

The first order of business this offseason needs to be trying to find a trade for the 3 players with no trade clauses. It would be helpful if they could resolve these questions before the winter meetings. Knowing if these players will further define who is on the roster, where opportunities and needs are, as well as what the payroll situation will be. Personally, I would trade all 3 if I could. A few suggestions from me:

Sonny Gray- Unlike Nolan Arenado, I would require a return for Gray in order to move him. There is certainly demand for Gray, and for some teams the option actually is appealing. In some ways, the looming CBA creates the perfect storm to deal our players with no-trade clauses. Contenders who are going for it in 2026 can add quality players (albeit at a high AAV) without the long-term commitment the quality free agents require. Sonny is still a high-performing starter who would benefit most contenders. His contract is not so underwater (Arenado) that you couldn’t eat some of the money, add some money to gain a good prospect, and save some money. We also need to consider how we think about what eating money in his contract means. He was only paid 10M in year one of his contract, 25M in year two, and backloaded to 35M in 2026. Some of the money absorbed is not so much “eaten” as normalizing the AAV.

My proposal- Sonny Gray and 20M cash to the Toronto Blue Jays for Ricky Tiedemann. The money takes the form of 15M paid on 2026 salary and 5M paid to buy out the option for ’27, or salary if the option is exercised. Would Sonny approve going to Toronto? I don’t know, but if winning is really the thing (“I came here to win”, “I expect to win”), they did just go to the World Series. Toronto is losing Chris Bassit and Max Scherzer to free agency, so they definitely have need and some payroll freed up. They also had Jose Berrios end the season on the IL with elbow issues, which should scare the bejeebers out of them. Tiedemann is Toronto’s #4 prospect (not a top 100). He is a 23 year-old 6’4” lefty coming off TJ surgery. He has strikeout stuff. So far in his minor league career he has averaged 14.5 K/9 with a 1.079 WHIP. On the 20/80 scale, his fastball and changeup both grade out at 65. He sat out all season in ’25 and should be ready to go in the spring. Tiedemann last pitched at AAA. He might be available from Toronto because Gray is ready to help them make their run in ’26, Tiedemann might take awhile. The Cardinals can wait if need be.

Second choice destination- Baltimore Orioles. The money proposal for the Orioles is the same as for the Blue Jays. Trade target. Coby Mayo. Mayo is a 23 year-old 1B/3B with power. He has made it to the majors, and so far has not figured things out.

Third choice destination- Detroit Tigers. If the Tigers decide to trade Skubal, a pitcher like Gray would be very valuable.

Other suitors- Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox.

Thanks for the post. It is nicely written. I think of the three NTC guys, Gray will be the least likely to be traded. The Cards have decent internal options to replace Nado and WC. But have NOBODY to replace Sonny Gray. An external acquisition would require spending considerable cash or player(s) to acquire.

I'm not so concerned with how this turns out this season, if we get a player back that we really like for at least 6 years.

[Red7]

Gray MIGHT waive his NTC, but it will depend on two things: First, of course, is where. That’s most likely a very limited view. Second, Gray will demand a price to waive. In fact, the MLBPA will insist on it. That price? That team option be picked up. That bumps the cost considerably, which lowers the return, in which case, it becomes more of a salary dump. Other than money in DeWitt’s account, there’s very little upside to trading Gray.

[ICCFIM2]

The first order of business this offseason needs to be trying to find a trade for the 3 players with no trade clauses. It would be helpful if they could resolve these questions before the winter meetings. Knowing if these players will further define who is on the roster, where opportunities and needs are, as well as what the payroll situation will be. Personally, I would trade all 3 if I could. A few suggestions from me:

Sonny Gray- Unlike Nolan Arenado, I would require a return for Gray in order to move him. There is certainly demand for Gray, and for some teams the option actually is appealing. In some ways, the looming CBA creates the perfect storm to deal our players with no-trade clauses. Contenders who are going for it in 2026 can add quality players (albeit at a high AAV) without the long-term commitment the quality free agents require. Sonny is still a high-performing starter who would benefit most contenders. His contract is not so underwater (Arenado) that you couldn’t eat some of the money, add some money to gain a good prospect, and save some money. We also need to consider how we think about what eating money in his contract means. He was only paid 10M in year one of his contract, 25M in year two, and backloaded to 35M in 2026. Some of the money absorbed is not so much “eaten” as normalizing the AAV.

My proposal- Sonny Gray and 20M cash to the Toronto Blue Jays for Ricky Tiedemann. The money takes the form of 15M paid on 2026 salary and 5M paid to buy out the option for ’27, or salary if the option is exercised. Would Sonny approve going to Toronto? I don’t know, but if winning is really the thing (“I came here to win”, “I expect to win”), they did just go to the World Series. Toronto is losing Chris Bassit and Max Scherzer to free agency, so they definitely have need and some payroll freed up. They also had Jose Berrios end the season on the IL with elbow issues, which should scare the bejeebers out of them. Tiedemann is Toronto’s #4 prospect (not a top 100). He is a 23 year-old 6’4” lefty coming off TJ surgery. He has strikeout stuff. So far in his minor league career he has averaged 14.5 K/9 with a 1.079 WHIP. On the 20/80 scale, his fastball and changeup both grade out at 65. He sat out all season in ’25 and should be ready to go in the spring. Tiedemann last pitched at AAA. He might be available from Toronto because Gray is ready to help them make their run in ’26, Tiedemann might take awhile. The Cardinals can wait if need be.

Second choice destination- Baltimore Orioles. The money proposal for the Orioles is the same as for the Blue Jays. Trade target. Coby Mayo. Mayo is a 23 year-old 1B/3B with power. He has made it to the majors, and so far has not figured things out.

Third choice destination- Detroit Tigers. If the Tigers decide to trade Skubal, a pitcher like Gray would be very valuable.

Other suitors- Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox.

Thanks for the post. It is nicely written. I think of the three NTC guys, Gray will be the least likely to be traded. The Cards have decent internal options to replace Nado and WC. But have NOBODY to replace Sonny Gray. An external acquisition would require spending considerable cash or player(s) to acquire.

I'm not so concerned with how this turns out this season, if we get a player back that we really like for at least 6 years.

I was skeptical when I first read your post, but I think the numbers make sense. The Cards save $20M on Gray over two seasons. They can purchase a veteran starting pitcher in the free agent market that can eat innings for $8-10M. So the net savings is $10M. If they get back a guy that can be a #3 starter for 6 years, that is a fantastic deal. Based on the trade value of Tiedemann, the numbers work. But, it really depends on what the other team is looking for. If they think Sonny is the piece that they need for the next year, then I could see a team biting and giving up that much control.

In terms of how much money will the Cards eat. Given the pending lockout, it complicates matters. If there is a lockout, the teams would not be on the hook for payroll for any games cancelled. How much money will BDW want to eat, if he thinks he will never have to pay that money? For Gray it is only 1 year, so that one is simple. I agree with your numbers. But, for Arenado and Contreras, it makes it more complicated. Arenado is still owed $39.4M, of which $25.4M is next year and the Rockies are still paying $5M of that. I can't imagine BDW will want to pay any of the 2027 $15M. He is on the hook for $19.4M of the remaining salary. Maybe he takes on $7-10M of that salary, not more. I have read some think the Cards will need to eat $20M to move him. Hard to see that happening.

[ScotchMIrish]

If we eat his entire salary he is nearing the end of his career and his stats are declining. I doubt we get much for him. A better coaching staff might use him more wisely and lower his ERA but the age problem won't change.

[WaltsSuccessor]

I doubt they trade Gray. They absolutely should, but I find it hard to believe they are going to find a deal that clears all of his salary off the books and gets a good return. And doesn't that return have to include an MLB-ready starter, given the shape of this rotation? So you need to find someone to take on the whole salary, get a good prospect and plug a whole in the starting roster. And of course it has to be somewhere that Gray wants to go (ie plans on contending). Is that deal out there?

I doubt it. More likely Bloom comes back from the Winter Meetings talking about how important a part of the club Gray is, how much leadership he has to offer young players, how they can always deal him next summer before the trade deadline, etc. etc. etc.

That's not at all what is being suggested here, and I don't think what the Cardinals have in mind. I think everyone concedes that if Gray is traded, they will be picking up part of his salary. Bloom has suggested that the Cardinals would be willing to include more money with the NTC guys if significant prospects came back to the Cardinals in return. That's my premise, and as you point out, Gray has to accept the trade.

Part of the salary, sure, but $20 mil? (ie 57% of the salary)? I'll believe that when I see it.

And consider: from the $15 mil you save, you then have to find another #1 (ish) starter. When you think about it like that, you're not saving much money at all, and keeping Gray makes more sense.

Don't forget the most important factor that will haunt this off-season: the guy making all the decisions still believes, no matter what anyone says, that this team could win 80+ games and compete for a 2nd WC spot next year. From that angle, trading Gray seems like throwing in the towel.

We'll see on the money. I don't think the front office sees the team next season as a contender at all.

Even without being a contender, they still need arms to cover innings. If they trade Gray, you're only looking at Libby and McGreevy as locks in the 2026 rotation (no, Pallante is not the answer). They don't have the AAA depth ready to fill 3 rotation spots so they're going to need to sign 1-2 vets to cheapish 1 year deals (like Lynn and GIbson, but probably cheaper). You can't go into 2026 with Libby, McGreevy, Pallante, Leahy, and Svanson/Matthews/Graceffo. You'd literally lose 110 games.

There gets to be a break even point where the money you eat to move Gray doesn't make sense when you have to spend a large percentage of the savings to sign lesser pitchers to fill innings. You'd do that whole gyration then look back and realize you were better off just keeping Gray at his bloated 2026 salary. Would take a monster prospect get in return to flip the math in our favor.

[WaltsSuccessor]

Left out the Mets. They have a lot of young pitchers who could benefit from Gray as a mentor and need a veteran good starter that would not require a long commitment. Money would not be as much of an issue so the return would not be as good.
I don’t see the Orioles giving up on Mayo so quickly for a short term gain. Toronto will be looking for pitching on a longer term as they will be most likely be losing 3 starters after next year. I think they will use trade assets for longer term pitching.

Given how Gray's last experience was in NYC, I'm pretty skeptical he'd waive his NTC to go to the Mets.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Left out the Mets. They have a lot of young pitchers who could benefit from Gray as a mentor and need a veteran good starter that would not require a long commitment. Money would not be as much of an issue so the return would not be as good.
I don’t see the Orioles giving up on Mayo so quickly for a short term gain. Toronto will be looking for pitching on a longer term as they will be most likely be losing 3 starters after next year. I think they will use trade assets for longer term pitching.

Given how Gray's last experience was in NYC, I'm pretty skeptical he'd waive his NTC to go to the Mets.

Correct. I left them out on purpose, as well as Boston and Philadelphia. I mentioned Baltimore, but question whether he would go there, or not.

[renostl]

I doubt they trade Gray. They absolutely should, but I find it hard to believe they are going to find a deal that clears all of his salary off the books and gets a good return. And doesn't that return have to include an MLB-ready starter, given the shape of this rotation? So you need to find someone to take on the whole salary, get a good prospect and plug a whole in the starting roster. And of course it has to be somewhere that Gray wants to go (ie plans on contending). Is that deal out there?

I doubt it. More likely Bloom comes back from the Winter Meetings talking about how important a part of the club Gray is, how much leadership he has to offer young players, how they can always deal him next summer before the trade deadline, etc. etc. etc.

That's not at all what is being suggested here, and I don't think what the Cardinals have in mind. I think everyone concedes that if Gray is traded, they will be picking up part of his salary. Bloom has suggested that the Cardinals would be willing to include more money with the NTC guys if significant prospects came back to the Cardinals in return. That's my premise, and as you point out, Gray has to accept the trade.

Part of the salary, sure, but $20 mil? (ie 57% of the salary)? I'll believe that when I see it.

And consider: from the $15 mil you save, you then have to find another #1 (ish) starter. When you think about it like that, you're not saving much money at all, and keeping Gray makes more sense.

Don't forget the most important factor that will haunt this off-season: the guy making all the decisions still believes, no matter what anyone says, that this team could win 80+ games and compete for a 2nd WC spot next year. From that angle, trading Gray seems like throwing in the towel.

Sonny has at least a $5 million buyout for 2027 or a club option for $30 million
that won't get picked up.
He is owed $40 million, I do believe. IF they pay $15-$20 they do save $20-$25 million.
That is a sizable coupon. Imagine having a big bill cut in half.

They had about $46 million come off the books in pitching with Matz, Miles, Fedde, Hels, and Mato,not counting
anything with SG on that diminished $137 million dollar payroll. $65-$70 million can buy replacement
pitching and they don't have to get all the pitching in the FA market.
So sure, one may see it as eating money, but it is actually decreasing what is owed.

I understand the core concept, and I agree with the wisdom. In fact, I think they should be willing to pay even more of Gray's contract if that means they get a better return on prospects.

I just don't think BDW is going to go for it. Especially not when he's already going to have to pay ~$20 mil to get rid of Arenado.

Of course you understand the concept.
I tend to type too much sometimes in text to make a point that in conversation is easy
for clarity and still fail at times.

Those numbers are close to what we are going with. They could be less. You get NA down to $12 mil
SG down to $25 mil and both are very reasonable for any team wanting their services, especially
with the backdrop of 2027. A team that wants SG sees him as a top 3. Getting a top 3 for a 1 yr/$25 mil
with 0 obligations in 2027 isn't easy to beat. Watch SF. They may even like other Cardinal
players that could lower those dollars.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Gray would also make a ton of sense for Detroit. I keep hearing buzz about them sending Skubal to the Red Sox for Tolle and a package. If we bought down Gray's contract at the levels I suggested he would cost the Tigers slightly less than Skubal next season. While not a full replacement, he would be a big step toward filling the gap a trade like that would leave.