The NTC Guys- Sonny Gray

[Talkin' Baseball]

The first order of business this offseason needs to be trying to find a trade for the 3 players with no trade clauses. It would be helpful if they could resolve these questions before the winter meetings. Knowing if these players will further define who is on the roster, where opportunities and needs are, as well as what the payroll situation will be. Personally, I would trade all 3 if I could. A few suggestions from me:

Sonny Gray- Unlike Nolan Arenado, I would require a return for Gray in order to move him. There is certainly demand for Gray, and for some teams the option actually is appealing. In some ways, the looming CBA creates the perfect storm to deal our players with no-trade clauses. Contenders who are going for it in 2026 can add quality players (albeit at a high AAV) without the long-term commitment the quality free agents require. Sonny is still a high-performing starter who would benefit most contenders. His contract is not so underwater (Arenado) that you couldn’t eat some of the money, add some money to gain a good prospect, and save some money. We also need to consider how we think about what eating money in his contract means. He was only paid 10M in year one of his contract, 25M in year two, and backloaded to 35M in 2026. Some of the money absorbed is not so much “eaten” as normalizing the AAV.

My proposal- Sonny Gray and 20M cash to the Toronto Blue Jays for Ricky Tiedemann. The money takes the form of 15M paid on 2026 salary and 5M paid to buy out the option for ’27, or salary if the option is exercised. Would Sonny approve going to Toronto? I don’t know, but if winning is really the thing (“I came here to win”, “I expect to win”), they did just go to the World Series. Toronto is losing Chris Bassit and Max Scherzer to free agency, so they definitely have need and some payroll freed up. They also had Jose Berrios end the season on the IL with elbow issues, which should scare the bejeebers out of them. Tiedemann is Toronto’s #4 prospect (not a top 100). He is a 23 year-old 6’4” lefty coming off TJ surgery. He has strikeout stuff. So far in his minor league career he has averaged 14.5 K/9 with a 1.079 WHIP. On the 20/80 scale, his fastball and changeup both grade out at 65. He sat out all season in ’25 and should be ready to go in the spring. Tiedemann last pitched at AAA. He might be available from Toronto because Gray is ready to help them make their run in ’26, Tiedemann might take awhile. The Cardinals can wait if need be.

Second choice destination- Baltimore Orioles. The money proposal for the Orioles is the same as for the Blue Jays. Trade target. Coby Mayo. Mayo is a 23 year-old 1B/3B with power. He has made it to the majors, and so far has not figured things out.

Third choice destination- Detroit Tigers. If the Tigers decide to trade Skubal, a pitcher like Gray would be very valuable.

Other suitors- Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox.

[Hoosier59]

Some good choices you’ve detailed. The key being mostly Gray himself. I definitely agree that there is a market for him, but will he be willing to accept a move to any of these teams. The Reds don’t really need more starting pitching and don’t have much payroll space, so they probably aren’t an option. Which is too bad, because Sonny probably would accept a trade there.
In my opinion, Atlanta is his most likely destination. I haven’t determined what player or players would be included in such a deal.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Some good choices you’ve detailed. The key being mostly Gray himself. I definitely agree that there is a market for him, but will he be willing to accept a move to any of these teams. The Reds don’t really need more starting pitching and don’t have much payroll space, so they probably aren’t an option. Which is too bad, because Sonny probably would accept a trade there.
In my opinion, Atlanta is his most likely destination. I haven’t determined what player or players would be included in such a deal.

I'm pretty sure he would go to Atlanta, but the best returns for the Cardinals are from other teams. With the Braves the names most interesting to me would be Garrett Baumann and Didier Fuentes.

[Dicktar2023]

I doubt they trade Gray. They absolutely should, but I find it hard to believe they are going to find a deal that clears all of his salary off the books (BDW isn't going to eat a significant amount of money) and gets a good return. And doesn't that return have to include an MLB-ready starter, given the shape of this rotation? So you need to find someone to take on the whole salary, get a good prospect and plug a whole in the starting roster. And of course it has to be somewhere that Gray wants to go (ie plans on contending). Is that deal out there?

I doubt it. More likely Bloom comes back from the Winter Meetings talking about how important a part of the club Gray is, how much leadership he has to offer young players, how they can always deal him next summer before the trade deadline, etc. etc. etc.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I doubt they trade Gray. They absolutely should, but I find it hard to believe they are going to find a deal that clears all of his salary off the books and gets a good return. And doesn't that return have to include an MLB-ready starter, given the shape of this rotation? So you need to find someone to take on the whole salary, get a good prospect and plug a whole in the starting roster. And of course it has to be somewhere that Gray wants to go (ie plans on contending). Is that deal out there?

I doubt it. More likely Bloom comes back from the Winter Meetings talking about how important a part of the club Gray is, how much leadership he has to offer young players, how they can always deal him next summer before the trade deadline, etc. etc. etc.

That's not at all what is being suggested here, and I don't think what the Cardinals have in mind. I think everyone concedes that if Gray is traded, they will be picking up part of his salary. Bloom has suggested that the Cardinals would be willing to include more money with the NTC guys if significant prospects came back to the Cardinals in return. That's my premise, and as you point out, Gray has to accept the trade.

[Dicktar2023]

I doubt they trade Gray. They absolutely should, but I find it hard to believe they are going to find a deal that clears all of his salary off the books and gets a good return. And doesn't that return have to include an MLB-ready starter, given the shape of this rotation? So you need to find someone to take on the whole salary, get a good prospect and plug a whole in the starting roster. And of course it has to be somewhere that Gray wants to go (ie plans on contending). Is that deal out there?

I doubt it. More likely Bloom comes back from the Winter Meetings talking about how important a part of the club Gray is, how much leadership he has to offer young players, how they can always deal him next summer before the trade deadline, etc. etc. etc.

That's not at all what is being suggested here, and I don't think what the Cardinals have in mind. I think everyone concedes that if Gray is traded, they will be picking up part of his salary. Bloom has suggested that the Cardinals would be willing to include more money with the NTC guys if significant prospects came back to the Cardinals in return. That's my premise, and as you point out, Gray has to accept the trade.

Part of the salary, sure, but $20 mil? (ie 57% of the salary)? I'll believe that when I see it.

And consider: from the $15 mil you save, you then have to find another #1 (ish) starter. When you think about it like that, you're not saving much money at all, and keeping Gray makes more sense.

Don't forget the most important factor that will haunt this off-season: the guy making all the decisions still believes, no matter what anyone says, that this team could win 80+ games and compete for a 2nd WC spot next year. From that angle, trading Gray seems like throwing in the towel.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I doubt they trade Gray. They absolutely should, but I find it hard to believe they are going to find a deal that clears all of his salary off the books and gets a good return. And doesn't that return have to include an MLB-ready starter, given the shape of this rotation? So you need to find someone to take on the whole salary, get a good prospect and plug a whole in the starting roster. And of course it has to be somewhere that Gray wants to go (ie plans on contending). Is that deal out there?

I doubt it. More likely Bloom comes back from the Winter Meetings talking about how important a part of the club Gray is, how much leadership he has to offer young players, how they can always deal him next summer before the trade deadline, etc. etc. etc.

That's not at all what is being suggested here, and I don't think what the Cardinals have in mind. I think everyone concedes that if Gray is traded, they will be picking up part of his salary. Bloom has suggested that the Cardinals would be willing to include more money with the NTC guys if significant prospects came back to the Cardinals in return. That's my premise, and as you point out, Gray has to accept the trade.

Part of the salary, sure, but $20 mil? (ie 57% of the salary)? I'll believe that when I see it.

And consider: from the $15 mil you save, you then have to find another #1 (ish) starter. When you think about it like that, you're not saving much money at all, and keeping Gray makes more sense.

Don't forget the most important factor that will haunt this off-season: the guy making all the decisions still believes, no matter what anyone says, that this team could win 80+ games and compete for a 2nd WC spot next year. From that angle, trading Gray seems like throwing in the towel.

We'll see on the money. I don't think the front office sees the team next season as a contender at all.

[Dicktar2023]

I doubt they trade Gray. They absolutely should, but I find it hard to believe they are going to find a deal that clears all of his salary off the books and gets a good return. And doesn't that return have to include an MLB-ready starter, given the shape of this rotation? So you need to find someone to take on the whole salary, get a good prospect and plug a whole in the starting roster. And of course it has to be somewhere that Gray wants to go (ie plans on contending). Is that deal out there?

I doubt it. More likely Bloom comes back from the Winter Meetings talking about how important a part of the club Gray is, how much leadership he has to offer young players, how they can always deal him next summer before the trade deadline, etc. etc. etc.

That's not at all what is being suggested here, and I don't think what the Cardinals have in mind. I think everyone concedes that if Gray is traded, they will be picking up part of his salary. Bloom has suggested that the Cardinals would be willing to include more money with the NTC guys if significant prospects came back to the Cardinals in return. That's my premise, and as you point out, Gray has to accept the trade.

Part of the salary, sure, but $20 mil? (ie 57% of the salary)? I'll believe that when I see it.

And consider: from the $15 mil you save, you then have to find another #1 (ish) starter. When you think about it like that, you're not saving much money at all, and keeping Gray makes more sense.

Don't forget the most important factor that will haunt this off-season: the guy making all the decisions still believes, no matter what anyone says, that this team could win 80+ games and compete for a 2nd WC spot next year. From that angle, trading Gray seems like throwing in the towel.

We'll see on the money. I don't think the front office sees the team next season as a contender at all.

I don't mean the FO, I'm talking about BDW. Bloom and co. can make all the plans they want about rebuilding, but getting the Big Man to give up on a 2nd WC spot during the winter is asking him to renounce his religion.

When it comes down to the actual moment when he has to sign the contract to pay Gray to win 10+ games for another team, is he going to be able to do it? We'll see.

[kyace]

Left out the Mets. They have a lot of young pitchers who could benefit from Gray as a mentor and need a veteran good starter that would not require a long commitment. Money would not be as much of an issue so the return would not be as good.
I don’t see the Orioles giving up on Mayo so quickly for a short term gain. Toronto will be looking for pitching on a longer term as they will be most likely be losing 3 starters after next year. I think they will use trade assets for longer term pitching.

[renostl]

Some good choices you’ve detailed. The key being mostly Gray himself. I definitely agree that there is a market for him, but will he be willing to accept a move to any of these teams. The Reds don’t really need more starting pitching and don’t have much payroll space, so they probably aren’t an option. Which is too bad, because Sonny probably would accept a trade there.
In my opinion, Atlanta is his most likely destination. I haven’t determined what player or players would be included in such a deal.

This is the NTC that in some instances might have some potential to couple.
It may have a synergistic affect if say he were combined with a bat that could
be moved around like Burleson, Donovan, or Nootbaar. The receiving team gets
more than a 1 year rental that way and it probably takes nothing away from the Cards
return but could add to it.
Donovan appeals to so many teams that are going for it, many of the need pitching
too. A 1 year rental before 2027 has some appeal.

[Bomber1]

I areas as far as the quote from Gray “I came here to win”

lol he signed after the Cardinals finished 20 under .500 in 2023.

He came where the most money was offered.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I areas as far as the quote from Gray “I came here to win”

lol he signed after the Cardinals finished 20 under .500 in 2023.

He came where the most money was offered.

I'm not sure about that. He signed early and by all indications, he has wanted to be here.

[renostl]

I doubt they trade Gray. They absolutely should, but I find it hard to believe they are going to find a deal that clears all of his salary off the books and gets a good return. And doesn't that return have to include an MLB-ready starter, given the shape of this rotation? So you need to find someone to take on the whole salary, get a good prospect and plug a whole in the starting roster. And of course it has to be somewhere that Gray wants to go (ie plans on contending). Is that deal out there?

I doubt it. More likely Bloom comes back from the Winter Meetings talking about how important a part of the club Gray is, how much leadership he has to offer young players, how they can always deal him next summer before the trade deadline, etc. etc. etc.

That's not at all what is being suggested here, and I don't think what the Cardinals have in mind. I think everyone concedes that if Gray is traded, they will be picking up part of his salary. Bloom has suggested that the Cardinals would be willing to include more money with the NTC guys if significant prospects came back to the Cardinals in return. That's my premise, and as you point out, Gray has to accept the trade.

Part of the salary, sure, but $20 mil? (ie 57% of the salary)? I'll believe that when I see it.

And consider: from the $15 mil you save, you then have to find another #1 (ish) starter. When you think about it like that, you're not saving much money at all, and keeping Gray makes more sense.

Don't forget the most important factor that will haunt this off-season: the guy making all the decisions still believes, no matter what anyone says, that this team could win 80+ games and compete for a 2nd WC spot next year. From that angle, trading Gray seems like throwing in the towel.

Sonny has at least a $5 million buyout for 2027 or a club option for $30 million
that won't get picked up.
He is owed $40 million, I do believe. IF they pay $15-$20 they do save $20-$25 million.
That is a sizable coupon. Imagine having a big bill cut in half.

They had about $46 million come off the books in pitching with Matz, Miles, Fedde, Hels, and Mato,not counting
anything with SG on that diminished $137 million dollar payroll. $65-$70 million can buy replacement
pitching and they don't have to get all the pitching in the FA market.
So sure, one may see it as eating money, but it is actually decreasing what is owed.

[Melville]

Keep.
Need to add pitching, not reduce it.

[renostl]

Keep.
Need to add pitching, not reduce it.

A 4 month $40 million mentor on a $125 million payroll
team is a difficult sell. Risk Reward is way off for a 36 y/o
who just completed his best 3 year stretch in 10 years.

Needing 2 pitcher vs 3 is the debate. He is gone in '27
Not a QO guy There is value now vs maybe value at the TD.
Sell, call it good and wish him well.

[Dicktar2023]

I doubt they trade Gray. They absolutely should, but I find it hard to believe they are going to find a deal that clears all of his salary off the books and gets a good return. And doesn't that return have to include an MLB-ready starter, given the shape of this rotation? So you need to find someone to take on the whole salary, get a good prospect and plug a whole in the starting roster. And of course it has to be somewhere that Gray wants to go (ie plans on contending). Is that deal out there?

I doubt it. More likely Bloom comes back from the Winter Meetings talking about how important a part of the club Gray is, how much leadership he has to offer young players, how they can always deal him next summer before the trade deadline, etc. etc. etc.

That's not at all what is being suggested here, and I don't think what the Cardinals have in mind. I think everyone concedes that if Gray is traded, they will be picking up part of his salary. Bloom has suggested that the Cardinals would be willing to include more money with the NTC guys if significant prospects came back to the Cardinals in return. That's my premise, and as you point out, Gray has to accept the trade.

Part of the salary, sure, but $20 mil? (ie 57% of the salary)? I'll believe that when I see it.

And consider: from the $15 mil you save, you then have to find another #1 (ish) starter. When you think about it like that, you're not saving much money at all, and keeping Gray makes more sense.

Don't forget the most important factor that will haunt this off-season: the guy making all the decisions still believes, no matter what anyone says, that this team could win 80+ games and compete for a 2nd WC spot next year. From that angle, trading Gray seems like throwing in the towel.

Sonny has at least a $5 million buyout for 2027 or a club option for $30 million
that won't get picked up.
He is owed $40 million, I do believe. IF they pay $15-$20 they do save $20-$25 million.
That is a sizable coupon. Imagine having a big bill cut in half.

They had about $46 million come off the books in pitching with Matz, Miles, Fedde, Hels, and Mato,not counting
anything with SG on that diminished $137 million dollar payroll. $65-$70 million can buy replacement
pitching and they don't have to get all the pitching in the FA market.
So sure, one may see it as eating money, but it is actually decreasing what is owed.

I understand the core concept, and I agree with the wisdom. In fact, I think they should be willing to pay even more of Gray's contract if that means they get a better return on prospects.

I just don't think BDW is going to go for it. Especially not when he's already going to have to pay ~$20 mil to get rid of Arenado.