Cards have NOT been officially eliminated yet

[hmoss859]

Mets up 8-2 in 6th

Only chance Cards have is if Helsley comes in relief

[BrummerStealsHome]

Playoffs are off my radar, but I would still love to see them finish .500. First, it's the sportsman in me. Second, it would mean a sweep of the Cubs in Wrigley.

[hmoss859]

8-5 Mets top of 7th

Mets bullpen trying to hang on to Wild Card lead

Helsley lurking in pen

[hmoss859]

The Fat Lady has sung loudly, right in Mo’s ear

Mercifully it’s OFFICIALLY over

[icon]

Cubbie DP ends it.

Cubbies fading heading into playoffs.

But they'll probably get well tomorrow. Mikolas, who allowed 6 HRs in Wrigley last time there, will be making his last Cardinals start, thank the Lord!

[hmoss859]

Time to tank now numbskulls

[dugoutrex]

Yep, and that just shows you how trashy all these so-called playoff contenders are. The Mets can't pitch, the Reds can't hit, and Arizona has some combination of those two.

And whoever makes it into the playoffs will not last very long. But as Mozo the Clown has told us for the last 12 years, “All you need is to get into the playoffs and anything can happen.” That was true when there was ONE wildcard team and it played a real best of 5 series. But a low wild card in a short series is toast. The higher seed will generally have better pitching to shut them down for 1 or 3 games.

people said the same thing about the D-backs a few years ago!

[Hazelwood72]

Yep, and that just shows you how trashy all these so-called playoff contenders are. The Mets can't pitch, the Reds can't hit, and Arizona has some combination of those two.

And whoever makes it into the playoffs will not last very long. But as Mozo the Clown has told us for the last 12 years, “All you need is to get into the playoffs and anything can happen.” That was true when there was ONE wildcard team and it played a real best of 5 series. But a low wild card in a short series is toast. The higher seed will generally have better pitching to shut them down for 1 or 3 games.

people said the same thing about the D-backs a few years ago!

Rex, you’re absolutely correct, but a Wild Card with a poor regular season record going far in the playoffs is very rare.

For the entertainment of fellow Cards Talk denizens, I did some research over a couple cups of Joe. Here’s the long story….

I’m not going back to when there was only one Wild Card and the first round was a best of 5 affair. Back then, most WC teams were pretty good (other than our own 2006 Boys).

I’m just referring to the seasons after they added a second and third Wild Card, starting in 2012. This is the period I feel that you need a relatively sound team and not the Mozo Special who
barely reaches the playoffs.

Since 2012, Here are the wild card teams who survived their first round and what ultimately happened:

2012: Cards 88 wins beat ATL 94 wins in WC game.
Cards lost to SF in NLCS. Cards went deep into playoffs. This is one case which refutes my position.

2013: TB 91 wins beats CLE 92 wins. Not earth shattering. TB loses next round.

2014: SF 88 wins beats PIT 88 wins. (Pit was the higher seed only because of tiebreaker. SF wins World Series. I’ll defend my position since SF won 88 and wasn’t much behind other playoff seeds.

2015: HOU 86 wins beats NYY. HOU loses next round.

2016: SF 87 wins beats NYM also 87 wins. NYM was higher seed on tiebreaker. SF loses next round.

2017: Both lower WCs lost WC game.

2018: COL 91 wins beats Cubs 95 wins. COL loses next round.

2019: Both lower WC’s lost WC game.

2020. I’m ignoring the COVID season

2021: Both lower WC’s lost the WC game.

2022: First season with 3 WC’s and best of 3 WC format.
PHL 6 seed 87 wins beats Cards 3 seed 93 wins. (Ugh!)
Philly went all the way to the WS and lost. This is one example that refutes my position, but Philly played in a tough Eastern Division that year where ATL and NYM both won over 100 games. So my take is that Philly didn’t just limp into the WC.

2023: ARI only 84 wins, goes all the way to WS and loses. THIS is the best example of a team who barely qualifies for the playoffs and goes far.

2024: NYM 89 wins beats MIL. NYM wins NLDS, loses NLCS. But the Mets weren’t chump change. They tied ATL for the 5-6 seed and weren’t far behind the rest.

To sum up:

1) ARI in 2023 beat expectations for a mediocre 84 win team and went to the WS.
2) Cards in 2012 went a long way, but 88 wins in regular season isn’t too shabby.
3) Philly in 2022 for an 87 win team did well and went to the WS.
4) Mets in 2024 went pretty deep, but they were an 89 win team and not much worse than the rest of the seeds.

That’s 4 out of 12 seasons where the lowest Wild Card went a long way in the post season. And of that 4, only one — Arizona, was really mediocre in the regular season.

So, Bill DeWitt: Build a better ballclub. Don’t be satisfied with 82-84 wins.