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Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
by OldRed
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
by ecleme22
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
by mattmitchl44
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 11:00 am
by ecleme22
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Once again, hindsight.
Also, you're not taking into consideration the need to cover innings.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 11:26 am
by 2ninr
Good thread guys. Enjoy civil discussions between folks with different opinions. I like to challenge my own opinions and good threads like this one does that. Thanks
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 11:29 am
by ScotchMIrish
The case of Gallen and Alcantara is all you need to know about the Cardinals and their predicament. Neither was pitching well in the Cardinals system which is why they were traded.
Alcantara had a ERA over 4 in 2017 and H/9 was poor. Gallen in a video described how he was traded because he showed up late for offseason training when he was trying to rest his arm.
Best thing that happened to them both was being traded away.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 11:51 am
by JDW
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:00 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Once again, hindsight.
Also, you're not taking into consideration the need to cover innings.
Not hindsight, as this was also discussed in real time by some when the signings happened.
And about covering innings, IF the Cards could have realized that they needed to start this process in 2024, there's always cheap arms that can be signed on the market plus milb arms to cover, while also trying to trade away NA and PG when they had better values to do so, which also was a discussion in real time that some engaged in.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 12:00 pm
by OldRed
JDW wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:51 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:00 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Once again, hindsight.
Also, you're not taking into consideration the need to cover innings.
Not hindsight, as this was also discussed in real time by some when the signings happened.
And about covering innings, IF the Cards could have realized that they needed to start this process in 2024, there's always cheap arms that can be signed on the market plus milb arms to cover, while also trying to trade away NA and PG when they had better values to do so, which also was a discussion in real time that some engaged in.
It wasn't hindsight on my part. A year was wasted and it shows in attendance.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 12:19 pm
by ecleme22
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 12:00 pm
JDW wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:51 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:00 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Once again, hindsight.
Also, you're not taking into consideration the need to cover innings.
Not hindsight, as this was also discussed in real time by some when the signings happened.
And about covering innings, IF the Cards could have realized that they needed to start this process in 2024, there's always cheap arms that can be signed on the market plus milb arms to cover, while also trying to trade away NA and PG when they had better values to do so, which also was a discussion in real time that some engaged in.
It wasn't hindsight on my part. A year was wasted and it shows in attendance.
No yours wasn’t ’hindsight.’ It was more about being wrong.
Your assertion that they were garbage signings was obviously proven wrong.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 12:40 pm
by OldRed
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 12:19 pm
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 12:00 pm
JDW wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:51 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:00 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Once again, hindsight.
Also, you're not taking into consideration the need to cover innings.
Not hindsight, as this was also discussed in real time by some when the signings happened.
And about covering innings, IF the Cards could have realized that they needed to start this process in 2024, there's always cheap arms that can be signed on the market plus milb arms to cover, while also trying to trade away NA and PG when they had better values to do so, which also was a discussion in real time that some engaged in.
It wasn't hindsight on my part. A year was wasted and it shows in attendance.
No yours wasn’t ’hindsight.’
It was more about being wrong.
Your assertion that they were garbage signings was obviously proven wrong.
Come on, what good do they do for a poor team last year. They wasted a year in rebuilding, and I said it last year. I never could figure out your love for Lynn or Gibson. By the way both are out of baseball at this time.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 13:11 pm
by mattmitchl44
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:00 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Once again, hindsight.
Also, you're not taking into consideration the need to cover innings.
If the farm system can't provide replacement level SPs (which is like Jake Irvin on the Nationals, -0.1 fWAR in 2025) to just cover innings for a team going nowhere, that is also an indictment of the farm system.
And yes, some of us thought they should have sold on Goldschmidt, Arenado, etc. in 2023 and started the deep rebuild in 2024 instead of muddling in mediocrity that season.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 13:34 pm
by Bomber1
JDW wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:51 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:00 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Once again, hindsight.
Also, you're not taking into consideration the need to cover innings.
Not hindsight, as this was also discussed in real time by some when the signings happened.
And about covering innings, IF the Cards could have realized that they needed to start this process in 2024, there's always cheap arms that can be signed on the market plus milb arms to cover, while also trying to trade away NA and PG when they had better values to do so, which also was a discussion in real time that some engaged in.
Ecleme is still taking victory laps over the Lynn and Gibson signings.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 14:11 pm
by ecleme22
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 12:40 pm
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 12:19 pm
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 12:00 pm
JDW wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:51 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:00 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Once again, hindsight.
Also, you're not taking into consideration the need to cover innings.
Not hindsight, as this was also discussed in real time by some when the signings happened.
And about covering innings, IF the Cards could have realized that they needed to start this process in 2024, there's always cheap arms that can be signed on the market plus milb arms to cover, while also trying to trade away NA and PG when they had better values to do so, which also was a discussion in real time that some engaged in.
It wasn't hindsight on my part. A year was wasted and it shows in attendance.
No yours wasn’t ’hindsight.’
It was more about being wrong.
Your assertion that they were garbage signings was obviously proven wrong.
Come on, what good do they do for a poor team last year. They wasted a year in rebuilding, and I said it last year. I never could figure out your love for Lynn or Gibson. By the way both are out of baseball at this time.
No, last year you just thought they were no good. You said nothing about rebuilding.
Also, hindsight. If PG, NA and JW didn’t drop off so significantly, it could’ve been an 88 win team.
Also, how they hurt the rebuilding?
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 14:44 pm
by JuanAgosto
The only missing mathematical equation is competent spending. When the POBO mismanages the spending, sucks at talent evaluation, lets the farm deteriorate, and is too lazy to fill needs well, you get the last 3 years of (bleep).
John Mozeliak's worthless (donkey) should've been fired after hackgate. He has spent a career riding other people's coattails.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 15:38 pm
by Carp4Cy
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
We picked 5th this July. How much higher should we have picked if we hadn't brought in LL or KG? Get a clue.
Re: The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn
Posted: 01 Sep 2025 15:44 pm
by Carp4Cy
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 13:11 pm
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 11:00 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:58 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:47 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:39 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:21 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 10:18 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:39 am
OldRed wrote: ↑01 Sep 2025 09:31 am
The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.
That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.
Well that’s not true at all.
What's not true?
What Mitch said.
Disagree all four were signings that wasted a year in rebuilding. One of the many reason attendance is down this year. Here is the rules for the Draft:
The order of the draft picks is primarily determined by the reverse standings from the previous season. This means that the team with the worst record gets the first pick, while the defending World Series champion selects last. So yes, Mitch was correct. And yes, their four signings in 2024 set them back another year and possibly many years to come.
MItch: "That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025."
Over 162 game season, the innings have to come from somewhere. And if they don't, then your bullpen is chewed up. Now something the team could've done is made Matz a reliever and Libby a starter before the '24 season began. Hindsight.
Another thing about hindsight: No one thought PG, NA and to a lesser extent, Walker, would [shirt] the bed in '24 like they did.
KG and LL signings were good signings. The kind Mo abandoned after TLR left. Did they help in '24? Yep. Would those kind of signings REALLY helped in '21 and '22? Yep.
Those signings help you if you are otherwise a 87, 88, 89 win team trying to get to 90, 91, 92 wins.
They really don't help you if you are otherwise a 77, 78, 79 win team getting to 80, 81, 82 wins.
Lynn and Gibson combined in 2024 to be worth about 3 wins above replacement level (by fWAR).
Once again, hindsight.
Also, you're not taking into consideration the need to cover innings.
If the farm system can't provide replacement level SPs (which is like Jake Irvin on the Nationals, -0.1 fWAR in 2025) to just cover innings for a team going nowhere, that is also an indictment of the farm system.
And yes, some of us thought they should have sold on Goldschmidt, Arenado, etc. in 2023 and started the deep rebuild in 2024 instead of muddling in mediocrity that season.
for the 100th time - no trade clauses.