The Mathmatical Equation Missed By The Cards To Avoid This Downturn

[TheSolution]

>I’m glad we don’t chase 200+ million dollar free agents. It would have to be such a fit, the player would still have to be young, a lot of factors would have to converge to make me happy about one of these 8+ year deals in the mega-millions.

>The Cardinals missed the equation necessary to help avoid what they’re going through right now.

>Equation Cardinals used: home grown players + select upper-middle class free agents + lots of low hanging fruit in hopes something stuck + late first round draft pics (bc winning) + holding onto flippable assets (bc winning and small balls) + low/mild involvement in international market.

>Equation Cardinals should have used: home grown players + select upper-middle class free agents + occasional low hanging fruit + huge involvement in young international signees (offsetting late 1st round drafting) + having the balls to flip certain assets at assessed points of peak value (see Tyler O’Niell).

Drafting late 1st round on a yearly basis, previous rules allowing for more leeway in young int’l signings, I do not understand how they Cardinals were not more aggressive tossing around a few million to sign these young Islanders while having no issue tossing 5-10 million at multiple free agent garbage finds a year in hopes one or two stick.

And they should have had the balls to face the fan base and media to trade players everyone and their mothers should have known were at peak values or worth trading because of various reasons to help the future while not hurting the present.

We had those extra resources to go hard on international talent and we simply didn’t do it like we should have to offset late 1st round selecting for 2+ decades and we obviously had horrendous asset management with timing and selection of trades.

[Carp4Cy]

If only we had a better crystal ball. Mo's is too cloudy.

Agree on the Intl FA market.

The other piece is to be more constantly aggressive in trading for AS talent that teams want to dump for prospects, like Goldy, Nado etc. The value of prospects has gotten so high that we don't get much worthwhile when we trade playoff pitchers like Flaherty and Monty and likewise we don't give much up when we receive all stars like Goldy and Nado in their primes.

Gotta be willing to spend on the proven talent, and if you can acquire it cheaply in trade thats better than in the FA markets.

[ecleme22]

I definitely agree they should’ve been bigger players in the intl market.

Cards also abandoned the short 1 year contract for veterans. Seems minimal, but these deals help fill out a roster, and other another alternative to big Leake contracts and reckless Ozuna trades.

[Carp4Cy]

I definitely agree they should’ve been bigger players in the intl market.

Cards also abandoned the short 1 year contract for veterans. Seems minimal, but these deals help fill out a roster, and other another alternative to big Leake contracts and reckless Ozuna trades.

Good point. I felt like Lance Lynn and to a lesser extent, Gibson, worked out well enough. And of course Pujols last contract knocked it out of the park, literally.

[mattmitchl44]

The bottom line is, wherever you get them from - drafting, international signing, trading for - the Cardinals have to do a much better job of acquiring young, cost controlled talent to be the foundation of their ML roster.

Everything else is secondary to that.

That have serviceable pieces (Crooks - C, Burleson - 1B, Winn - SS, Nootbaar - OF, Donovan - 2B/OF, Gorman - 2B/3B, Herrera - DH, Saggese - Util, Liberatore - back end SP, McGreevy - back end SP), but they need to develop at least 1-2 impact position players (Wetherholt, ?) and 2 front of rotation SPs (Doyle, Mathews?).

[HorseTrader]

I definitely agree they should’ve been bigger players in the intl market.

Cards also abandoned the short 1 year contract for veterans. Seems minimal, but these deals help fill out a roster, and other another alternative to big Leake contracts and reckless Ozuna trades.

Yep the way to offset drafting low would have been to bet big on top international guys. Instead they spread the risk by going for lower level international types.

[ecleme22]

I definitely agree they should’ve been bigger players in the intl market.

Cards also abandoned the short 1 year contract for veterans. Seems minimal, but these deals help fill out a roster, and other another alternative to big Leake contracts and reckless Ozuna trades.

Good point. I felt like Lance Lynn and to a lesser extent, Gibson, worked out well enough. And of course Pujols last contract knocked it out of the park, literally.

Thanks!

If memory serves me, I think the Lynn/Gibson signings were the first 1-year starter signed since Lohse in '08. And I don't think since Beltran in '12, did the Cards sign a clear starter to a 1-2 year contract.

And yeah, LL and KG worked out very well in '24.

[bccardsfan]

The bottom line is, wherever you get them from - drafting, international signing, trading for - the Cardinals have to do a much better job of acquiring young, cost controlled talent to be the foundation of their ML roster.

Everything else is secondary to that.

That have serviceable pieces (Crooks - C, Burleson - 1B, Winn - SS, Nootbaar - OF, Donovan - 2B/OF, Gorman - 2B/3B, Herrera - DH, Saggese - Util, Liberatore - back end SP, McGreevy - back end SP), but they need to develop at least 1-2 impact position players (Wetherholt, ?) and 2 front of rotation SPs (Doyle, Mathews?).

Basically this. Doyle could work out as a top 3 SP, but probably not next season. But your premise is correct. Right now they have a lot of low cost filler pieces who may pan out, but you need a couple of impact bats in the lineup. WC is a support piece. If he is your best hitter you are in trouble as we have seen. Hopefully JJ pans out, and at least one or two others in the minors. As for pitching, who knows. Doyle, maybe Mathews, and we shall see. Next season will probably look a lot like this season unless JJ really pans out and one or two others guys really step up offensively. On the pitching side.... could be another rough season unless there is a trade or some kids really come on strong. This is a 2-3 year project, and perhaps now there is someone actually steering the ship.... I think if Bloom cleans house and we get a new manager and pitching coach that is a good sign as well. Again, we shall see. We will at least know the answer to that shortly after the WS.

[OldRed]

The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.

[CardsBest]

If only we had a better crystal ball. Mo's is too cloudy.

Agree on the Intl FA market.

The other piece is to be more constantly aggressive in trading for AS talent that teams want to dump for prospects, like Goldy, Nado etc. The value of prospects has gotten so high that we don't get much worthwhile when we trade playoff pitchers like Flaherty and Monty and likewise we don't give much up when we receive all stars like Goldy and Nado in their primes.

Gotta be willing to spend on the proven talent, and if you can acquire it cheaply in trade thats better than in the FA markets.

The problem the Cardinals have is evaluating their own young talent and trading it for other areas of need. Gorman, Walker, Noot, Carlson, O’Niell, Reyes, DeJong, etc. had good value but they wait until they have near nothing before trading them. Tampa often traded younger players for younger players.

[ecleme22]

The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.

You can't lump all four together because two were backups.

KG and LL were really good signings, and they were little to know risk. And them being retired now means nothing. LOL.

Teams do Crawford type signings all the time. But good teams release them in June.

[mattmitchl44]

The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.

That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.

[ecleme22]

The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.

That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.

Well that’s not true at all.

[blackinkbiz]

Mo used to have the balls to flip high-value prospects for a good return. But ever since Aroz, Gallen, and Alcantara, he got the yips and was subject to analysis paralysis.

But I agree they also went for WAY too many low-hanging fruits, and compounded that problem by signing former Cardinals well past their prime in an attempt to extract leadership (hahaha--yeah right) and fan nostalgia.

I also contend that 34-year-old in Florida nursing his shoulder who's been playing like a 44-year-old, he's a BIG, BIG part of why the Cardinals fell of the map so quickly. If he simply produces close to what he did in 21 and 22, there's less pressure on every other piece in the lineup to produce more and in turn, the pitching staff isn't trying to hold teams to 1-2 runs because they know the offense may be in yet another extended slump.

The 23 and 24 squads were as reliant on Nado to produce at expected levels in order for them to compete for a playoff spot as much as any of the 05-11 Cards were dependent on Pujols to succeed.

Imagine if Albert went from MVP to barely above replacement level in 2005. How different would the next 6 years have looked?

Oh, and absolutely right about the international market. It's mind-boggling other teams pull one international after another out of their hats and the Cards just pull and endless line of failed top-100 prospects. Those that did succeed they traded. lol

[OldRed]

The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.

That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.

Well that’s not true at all.

What's not true?

[ecleme22]

The 2024 signings of Lynn, Gibson, Crawford and Carpenter set the rebuild or re-tool back again another year. All four are now retired. And that's not mention the trade for Fedde.

That's the "trap" of signing guys on one-year contracts in 2025. Even if they are OK, they make you just good enough to be mediocre and keep you trapped in that range of just being about a .500 team, so you don't make the playoffs but you don't get high draft picks either.

Well that’s not true at all.

What's not true?

What Mitch said.