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swatski wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:10 am Reminds me of a young Schwarber. Needs to get in better shape.

rbirules wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:37 am Can we pump the brakes on the hyperbole and just enjoy Burleson for what he is, and likely always has been? He's an above average hitter (124 wRC+), and looking at his "expected stats" the last few years this was likely always his level (120-130 wRC+). Unfortunately he pretty much has to hit at this level to be an average starter, but has a long way to go to reach "star" level (like the Berkman comp, or the Kruk comp I've seen thrown around).

Let's dig into Burleson's stats.

As has been mentioned in the OP his "surface level" stats have improved each year, but the underlying metrics that drive those haven't changed much (or at least the ones that are most reliable in partial season sample sizes).

Yearly stats:
2023 - .244/.300/.390/.691, 88 wRC+, 6.6% BB%, 13.0% K%, .146 ISO, .261 BABIP
2024 - .269/.314/.420/.735, 106 wRC+, 5.9% BB%, 12.8% K%, .152 ISO, .276 BABIP
2025 - .291/.341/.461/.802, 124 wRC+, 7.2% BB%, 13.3% K%, .169 ISO, .306 BABIP

Walk rate is 6.6% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.5% each of the last three years. Strike out rate is 13.1% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.3% each of the last three years. So he's going to walk very little and strike out very little, at this point I don't think that's likely to change, much. So he's very dependent on what happens when the balls put in play (because he doesn't generate much value when it's not, i.e. low walk rate).

His ISO is trending in the right direction (110 ISO+ in 2025) and his BABIP appears to have finally gotten on the positive side of league average (105 BABIP+ in 2025). But I'm not sure Burleson is the body type of a player that runs a higher than average BABIP if he's not absolutely hammering the ball (like Goldschmidt). If he has a normal batted ball profile he's beating out less ground balls than the average major leaguer.

Can we expect his power numbers to grow even more?

HR/FB%:
2023 - 8.2%
2024 - 12.0%
2025 - 10.3%
Total - 10.5%

Stop me if you've heard this before . . . his career rate is 10.5% and each year he's been within about 2% of that number, with no consistent positive trend line.

He is however hitting the ball in the air more 43.3% FB% compared to 36.7% in 2023-2024. The statcast metrics support this as well.

LA:
2023 - 12.4
2024 - 13.6
2025 - 16.1
Total - 13.8

He is hitting the ball slightly harder . . .

Hard hit%:
2023 - 39.9%
2024 - 41.0%
2025 - 42.7%
Total - 41.6%

There is a slight positive trend there, but the increase in LA is what is really helping him . . .

Barrel%:
2023 - 5.8%
2024 - 6.5%
2025 - 9.0%
Total - 7.2%

He's now hitting those hard hit balls at better elevations, so maybe there's some hope that he has some untapped power potential still at age 26 (soon to be 27).

He could obviously get some BABIP luck in a season (.330-.340 range) and maybe bump that batting line up to a 130-140 wRC+ level, but I don't see that happening in a sustainable manner unless he magically learns to start walking more at age 27 (seems unlikely).

A 125-130 wRC+ hitter who isn't a particularly great fielder at corner positions is a solid player, but far from a star.

Berkman was putting up wRC+ of 164, 149, 139, 161, 144, 158, 131, 156, 138 from age 25 through his age 33 season. His floor was higher than Burleson's current career year. He put up four straight seasons with an fWAR between 6 and 7 then had two more 6+ seasons in the next four years (including a 7.7 fWAR season at age 32) with the down years being 2.6 and 2.8 fWAR. That is what a star corner bat looks like, and Burleson isn't close to that. Berkman walked more than he struck out in his mid to late 20s (15.9% BB% vs. 15.8% K%). I don't see Burleson doubling his walk rate, that's usually pretty well developed at this point.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:03 am Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

Lloyd Braun wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:58 am

RamFan08NY wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 07:39 am No doubt he is proving to be a true major league hitter. Every part of him, including physique, continues to remind me of Burkman. Always puts the bat on the ball, can go with the pitch, and showing decent power.

I've been calling him Baby Berkman since last year. If he can get into that 30 homer territory, he could be Burley Berkman. Breath of fresh air, in a league full of .230 hitters.

3dender wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:05 am

Lloyd Braun wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:58 am

RamFan08NY wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 07:39 am No doubt he is proving to be a true major league hitter. Every part of him, including physique, continues to remind me of Burkman. Always puts the bat on the ball, can go with the pitch, and showing decent power.

I've been calling him Baby Berkman since last year. If he can get into that 30 homer territory, he could be Burley Berkman. Breath of fresh air, in a league full of .230 hitters.

Really shows you how much BA is worth when he still only has 1.5 WAR as a .300 hitter.

icon wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:05 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:03 am Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

Recency bias on steroids.

icon wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:03 am

rbirules wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:37 am Can we pump the brakes on the hyperbole and just enjoy Burleson for what he is, and likely always has been? He's an above average hitter (124 wRC+), and looking at his "expected stats" the last few years this was likely always his level (120-130 wRC+). Unfortunately he pretty much has to hit at this level to be an average starter, but has a long way to go to reach "star" level (like the Berkman comp, or the Kruk comp I've seen thrown around).

Thanks for your insight as always. This forum could use more of your posts.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:03 am Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

icon wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:03 am

rbirules wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 08:37 am Can we pump the brakes on the hyperbole and just enjoy Burleson for what he is, and likely always has been? He's an above average hitter (124 wRC+), and looking at his "expected stats" the last few years this was likely always his level (120-130 wRC+). Unfortunately he pretty much has to hit at this level to be an average starter, but has a long way to go to reach "star" level (like the Berkman comp, or the Kruk comp I've seen thrown around).

Let's dig into Burleson's stats.

As has been mentioned in the OP his "surface level" stats have improved each year, but the underlying metrics that drive those haven't changed much (or at least the ones that are most reliable in partial season sample sizes).

Yearly stats:
2023 - .244/.300/.390/.691, 88 wRC+, 6.6% BB%, 13.0% K%, .146 ISO, .261 BABIP
2024 - .269/.314/.420/.735, 106 wRC+, 5.9% BB%, 12.8% K%, .152 ISO, .276 BABIP
2025 - .291/.341/.461/.802, 124 wRC+, 7.2% BB%, 13.3% K%, .169 ISO, .306 BABIP

Walk rate is 6.6% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.5% each of the last three years. Strike out rate is 13.1% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.3% each of the last three years. So he's going to walk very little and strike out very little, at this point I don't think that's likely to change, much. So he's very dependent on what happens when the balls put in play (because he doesn't generate much value when it's not, i.e. low walk rate).

His ISO is trending in the right direction (110 ISO+ in 2025) and his BABIP appears to have finally gotten on the positive side of league average (105 BABIP+ in 2025). But I'm not sure Burleson is the body type of a player that runs a higher than average BABIP if he's not absolutely hammering the ball (like Goldschmidt). If he has a normal batted ball profile he's beating out less ground balls than the average major leaguer.

Can we expect his power numbers to grow even more?

HR/FB%:
2023 - 8.2%
2024 - 12.0%
2025 - 10.3%
Total - 10.5%

Stop me if you've heard this before . . . his career rate is 10.5% and each year he's been within about 2% of that number, with no consistent positive trend line.

He is however hitting the ball in the air more 43.3% FB% compared to 36.7% in 2023-2024. The statcast metrics support this as well.

LA:
2023 - 12.4
2024 - 13.6
2025 - 16.1
Total - 13.8

He is hitting the ball slightly harder . . .

Hard hit%:
2023 - 39.9%
2024 - 41.0%
2025 - 42.7%
Total - 41.6%

There is a slight positive trend there, but the increase in LA is what is really helping him . . .

Barrel%:
2023 - 5.8%
2024 - 6.5%
2025 - 9.0%
Total - 7.2%

He's now hitting those hard hit balls at better elevations, so maybe there's some hope that he has some untapped power potential still at age 26 (soon to be 27).

He could obviously get some BABIP luck in a season (.330-.340 range) and maybe bump that batting line up to a 130-140 wRC+ level, but I don't see that happening in a sustainable manner unless he magically learns to start walking more at age 27 (seems unlikely).

A 125-130 wRC+ hitter who isn't a particularly great fielder at corner positions is a solid player, but far from a star.

Berkman was putting up wRC+ of 164, 149, 139, 161, 144, 158, 131, 156, 138 from age 25 through his age 33 season. His floor was higher than Burleson's current career year. He put up four straight seasons with an fWAR between 6 and 7 then had two more 6+ seasons in the next four years (including a 7.7 fWAR season at age 32) with the down years being 2.6 and 2.8 fWAR. That is what a star corner bat looks like, and Burleson isn't close to that. Berkman walked more than he struck out in his mid to late 20s (15.9% BB% vs. 15.8% K%). I don't see Burleson doubling his walk rate, that's usually pretty well developed at this point.

Thanks for your insight as always. This forum could use more of your posts.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:10 am

icon wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:05 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:03 am Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

Recency bias on steroids.

I don't think Berkman was a juicer, great hitter in college.

(I do however think the other two Killer Bee's, Biggio/Bagwell, were )

RamFan08NY wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:18 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑26 Aug 2025 09:03 am Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

No doubt what kind of player Berkman was. Saying that the two styles resemble each other is far different than saying they are at this point equal players.

Let's also keep in mind while comparing stats. Of course Burly isnt going to have 355 HRs after 3 seasons, so comparing career stats is equally foolish. Berkman had 55 hrs after 3 seasons. Not much Different than Burlys production. Also let's not forget so many years playing in Houston certainly did not hurt LBs numbers.