Burleson is a star

[cardinalsfever44]

Reminds me of a young Schwarber. Needs to get in better shape.

100% agree.

I love Burly, but the dude needs to spend the entire offseason in the gym and lose some weight. I think it may really increase his power a bit, which is really all that he's missing from his hitting arsenal.

[icon]

Can we pump the brakes on the hyperbole and just enjoy Burleson for what he is, and likely always has been? He's an above average hitter (124 wRC+), and looking at his "expected stats" the last few years this was likely always his level (120-130 wRC+). Unfortunately he pretty much has to hit at this level to be an average starter, but has a long way to go to reach "star" level (like the Berkman comp, or the Kruk comp I've seen thrown around).

Let's dig into Burleson's stats.

As has been mentioned in the OP his "surface level" stats have improved each year, but the underlying metrics that drive those haven't changed much (or at least the ones that are most reliable in partial season sample sizes).

Yearly stats:
2023 - .244/.300/.390/.691, 88 wRC+, 6.6% BB%, 13.0% K%, .146 ISO, .261 BABIP
2024 - .269/.314/.420/.735, 106 wRC+, 5.9% BB%, 12.8% K%, .152 ISO, .276 BABIP
2025 - .291/.341/.461/.802, 124 wRC+, 7.2% BB%, 13.3% K%, .169 ISO, .306 BABIP

Walk rate is 6.6% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.5% each of the last three years. Strike out rate is 13.1% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.3% each of the last three years. So he's going to walk very little and strike out very little, at this point I don't think that's likely to change, much. So he's very dependent on what happens when the balls put in play (because he doesn't generate much value when it's not, i.e. low walk rate).

His ISO is trending in the right direction (110 ISO+ in 2025) and his BABIP appears to have finally gotten on the positive side of league average (105 BABIP+ in 2025). But I'm not sure Burleson is the body type of a player that runs a higher than average BABIP if he's not absolutely hammering the ball (like Goldschmidt). If he has a normal batted ball profile he's beating out less ground balls than the average major leaguer.

Can we expect his power numbers to grow even more?

HR/FB%:
2023 - 8.2%
2024 - 12.0%
2025 - 10.3%
Total - 10.5%

Stop me if you've heard this before . . . his career rate is 10.5% and each year he's been within about 2% of that number, with no consistent positive trend line.

He is however hitting the ball in the air more 43.3% FB% compared to 36.7% in 2023-2024. The statcast metrics support this as well.

LA:
2023 - 12.4
2024 - 13.6
2025 - 16.1
Total - 13.8

He is hitting the ball slightly harder . . .

Hard hit%:
2023 - 39.9%
2024 - 41.0%
2025 - 42.7%
Total - 41.6%

There is a slight positive trend there, but the increase in LA is what is really helping him . . .

Barrel%:
2023 - 5.8%
2024 - 6.5%
2025 - 9.0%
Total - 7.2%

He's now hitting those hard hit balls at better elevations, so maybe there's some hope that he has some untapped power potential still at age 26 (soon to be 27).

He could obviously get some BABIP luck in a season (.330-.340 range) and maybe bump that batting line up to a 130-140 wRC+ level, but I don't see that happening in a sustainable manner unless he magically learns to start walking more at age 27 (seems unlikely).

A 125-130 wRC+ hitter who isn't a particularly great fielder at corner positions is a solid player, but far from a star.

Berkman was putting up wRC+ of 164, 149, 139, 161, 144, 158, 131, 156, 138 from age 25 through his age 33 season. His floor was higher than Burleson's current career year. He put up four straight seasons with an fWAR between 6 and 7 then had two more 6+ seasons in the next four years (including a 7.7 fWAR season at age 32) with the down years being 2.6 and 2.8 fWAR. That is what a star corner bat looks like, and Burleson isn't close to that. Berkman walked more than he struck out in his mid to late 20s (15.9% BB% vs. 15.8% K%). I don't see Burleson doubling his walk rate, that's usually pretty well developed at this point.

Thanks for your insight as always. This forum could use more of your posts.

[rockondlouie]

Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

[icon]

Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

Recency bias on steroids.

[3dender]

No doubt he is proving to be a true major league hitter. Every part of him, including physique, continues to remind me of Burkman. Always puts the bat on the ball, can go with the pitch, and showing decent power.

I've been calling him Baby Berkman since last year. If he can get into that 30 homer territory, he could be Burley Berkman. Breath of fresh air, in a league full of .230 hitters.

Really shows you how much BA is worth when he still only has 1.5 WAR as a .300 hitter.

[lidstrom5]

He's a magnet that drew 17,000 people to the park to see a titanic battle against the powerhouse known as the Pirates.

[Melville]

When considering the LH bats in STL, he is giving Bloom something to think about.
He has certainly created a large gap between himself and Lars The Human Sushi-baar.
And he is opening a gap between himself and Donovan.
With Whetherholt on the way, and 2 LH hitting CF's in Scott and Church, some LH bats are going to be moved in the coming off-season.
Burleson is making it highly likely that he will not be one of them.

[Melville]

No doubt he is proving to be a true major league hitter. Every part of him, including physique, continues to remind me of Burkman. Always puts the bat on the ball, can go with the pitch, and showing decent power.

I've been calling him Baby Berkman since last year. If he can get into that 30 homer territory, he could be Burley Berkman. Breath of fresh air, in a league full of .230 hitters.

Really shows you how much BA is worth when he still only has 1.5 WAR as a .300 hitter.

Actually, it shows how worthless the fiction of WAR is.

[rockondlouie]

Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

Recency bias on steroids.

I don't think Berkman was a juicer, great hitter in college.

(I do however think the other two Killer Bee's, Biggio/Bagwell, were )

[imadangman]

He is a hitter a lot of teams would probably like to have.

[rbirules]

Can we pump the brakes on the hyperbole and just enjoy Burleson for what he is, and likely always has been? He's an above average hitter (124 wRC+), and looking at his "expected stats" the last few years this was likely always his level (120-130 wRC+). Unfortunately he pretty much has to hit at this level to be an average starter, but has a long way to go to reach "star" level (like the Berkman comp, or the Kruk comp I've seen thrown around).

Thanks for your insight as always. This forum could use more of your posts.

Thank you for your kind words.

I forgot to include the breakdown of his "expected stats" that I mentioned, so I'll do it now.

"Expected" wOBA (xwOBA):
2023 - .337
2024 - .329
2025 - .349

Pretty consistent. 20 point range over three seasons, all spaced about 10 points from the midpoint.

Actual vs. "Expected" wOBA, wRC+, BABIP:
2023 - .300, .337, 88, .261
2024 - .319, .329, 106, .276
2025 - .346, .349, 124, .306

Actual results can vary much more, namely due to BABIP fortune, which is exactly why "expected stats" were created. Once he got a BABIP near league average (.300) his actual wOBA was very much in line with his expected (xwOBA), and his wRC+ was in the 120s. He's hitting the ball in the air more so his wRC+ might have been more in the 115-120 range in 2023 and 2024 had he had a BABIP closer to .300, but as I showed his underlying skills haven't really changed that much (other than hitting it in the air more this year).

[sdaltons]

He's a solid supporting player. Star? Wtf

[RamFan08NY]

Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

No doubt what kind of player Berkman was. Saying that the two styles resemble each other is far different than saying they are at this point equal players.

Let's also keep in mind while comparing stats. Of course Burly isnt going to have 355 HRs after 3 seasons, so comparing career stats is equally foolish. Berkman had 55 hrs after 3 seasons. Not much Different than Burlys production. Also let's not forget so many years playing in Houston certainly did not hurt LBs numbers.

[VegasVinny]

Can we pump the brakes on the hyperbole and just enjoy Burleson for what he is, and likely always has been? He's an above average hitter (124 wRC+), and looking at his "expected stats" the last few years this was likely always his level (120-130 wRC+). Unfortunately he pretty much has to hit at this level to be an average starter, but has a long way to go to reach "star" level (like the Berkman comp, or the Kruk comp I've seen thrown around).

Let's dig into Burleson's stats.

As has been mentioned in the OP his "surface level" stats have improved each year, but the underlying metrics that drive those haven't changed much (or at least the ones that are most reliable in partial season sample sizes).

Yearly stats:
2023 - .244/.300/.390/.691, 88 wRC+, 6.6% BB%, 13.0% K%, .146 ISO, .261 BABIP
2024 - .269/.314/.420/.735, 106 wRC+, 5.9% BB%, 12.8% K%, .152 ISO, .276 BABIP
2025 - .291/.341/.461/.802, 124 wRC+, 7.2% BB%, 13.3% K%, .169 ISO, .306 BABIP

Walk rate is 6.6% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.5% each of the last three years. Strike out rate is 13.1% for his career, he's been at that level give or take 0.3% each of the last three years. So he's going to walk very little and strike out very little, at this point I don't think that's likely to change, much. So he's very dependent on what happens when the balls put in play (because he doesn't generate much value when it's not, i.e. low walk rate).

His ISO is trending in the right direction (110 ISO+ in 2025) and his BABIP appears to have finally gotten on the positive side of league average (105 BABIP+ in 2025). But I'm not sure Burleson is the body type of a player that runs a higher than average BABIP if he's not absolutely hammering the ball (like Goldschmidt). If he has a normal batted ball profile he's beating out less ground balls than the average major leaguer.

Can we expect his power numbers to grow even more?

HR/FB%:
2023 - 8.2%
2024 - 12.0%
2025 - 10.3%
Total - 10.5%

Stop me if you've heard this before . . . his career rate is 10.5% and each year he's been within about 2% of that number, with no consistent positive trend line.

He is however hitting the ball in the air more 43.3% FB% compared to 36.7% in 2023-2024. The statcast metrics support this as well.

LA:
2023 - 12.4
2024 - 13.6
2025 - 16.1
Total - 13.8

He is hitting the ball slightly harder . . .

Hard hit%:
2023 - 39.9%
2024 - 41.0%
2025 - 42.7%
Total - 41.6%

There is a slight positive trend there, but the increase in LA is what is really helping him . . .

Barrel%:
2023 - 5.8%
2024 - 6.5%
2025 - 9.0%
Total - 7.2%

He's now hitting those hard hit balls at better elevations, so maybe there's some hope that he has some untapped power potential still at age 26 (soon to be 27).

He could obviously get some BABIP luck in a season (.330-.340 range) and maybe bump that batting line up to a 130-140 wRC+ level, but I don't see that happening in a sustainable manner unless he magically learns to start walking more at age 27 (seems unlikely).

A 125-130 wRC+ hitter who isn't a particularly great fielder at corner positions is a solid player, but far from a star.

Berkman was putting up wRC+ of 164, 149, 139, 161, 144, 158, 131, 156, 138 from age 25 through his age 33 season. His floor was higher than Burleson's current career year. He put up four straight seasons with an fWAR between 6 and 7 then had two more 6+ seasons in the next four years (including a 7.7 fWAR season at age 32) with the down years being 2.6 and 2.8 fWAR. That is what a star corner bat looks like, and Burleson isn't close to that. Berkman walked more than he struck out in his mid to late 20s (15.9% BB% vs. 15.8% K%). I don't see Burleson doubling his walk rate, that's usually pretty well developed at this point.

Thanks for your insight as always. This forum could use more of your posts.

+1

Burleson deserves a ton of credit for making himself into a good (not great) major-league player. It's certainly not an apples-to-apples comparison, but I think it best proves my point: he's played himself into that Reggie Sanders c. 2004 category.

Sanders was a solid all-around player, but he was typically in the 6th/7th place in the batting order. And, yes, that 2004 team was an embarrassment of riches in terms of talent, but if Reggie Sanders c. 2004 is your No. 3 hitter, you're not a very good team. This isn't some groundbreaking comment, but the organization needs to develop that 3-4-5 heart of the order (cuz they ain't paying for it on the FA market anytime soon). Burleson is an excellent complementary OF on a contending team. Not a tent pole hitter, so to speak.

[rbirules]

Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

Recency bias on steroids.

I don't think Berkman was a juicer, great hitter in college.

(I do however think the other two Killer Bee's, Biggio/Bagwell, were )

I don't think the "on steroids" comment was in regards to Berkman. I think it was meant as an amplifier (hyperbolic commentary) to describe the recency bias surrounding Burleson.

[rockondlouie]

Just to remind people how good a hitter Berkman was:

366 HR
1234 RBI's
.293 .406 .537 .943
144 OPS+
52 career bWAR
Seven Top 14 MVP finishes

Borderline Hall of Famer


Bumbles:

46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738
105 OPS+
2.3 career bWAR


C'MON GUYS

No doubt what kind of player Berkman was. Saying that the two styles resemble each other is far different than saying they are at this point equal players.

Let's also keep in mind while comparing stats. Of course Burly isnt going to have 355 HRs after 3 seasons, so comparing career stats is equally foolish. Berkman had 55 hrs after 3 seasons. Not much Different than Burlys production. Also let's not forget so many years playing in Houston certainly did not hurt LBs numbers.

Not just about HR's RFNY

There's just no comparison hitter wise other than they both hit lefthanded, Berkman was vastly superior at the same age.

Burly Age 23-26
1455 PA's
46 HR
177 RBI
.267 .318 .421 .738

Berkman Age 23-26
1904 PA
101 HR
336 RBI
.304 .406 .578 .984