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An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 16:05 pmThere is zero chance they'd get anything for Sonny Gray.

Midrange Jay wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 15:30 pm We would get nothing of return for Arenado and Gray. They would be salary dumps, leaving us with 3 holes in our SP rotation and one at 3B.

jbrach wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 16:20 pm

cardstatman wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 16:12 pm Trading Arenado or Gray would accomplish only saving money.

Trading Gray would also make the team significantly worse.

trading both saves lots of money and could well improve the team.....

PadsFS07 wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 17:01 pm

Midrange Jay wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 15:30 pm We would get nothing of return for Arenado and Gray. They would be salary dumps, leaving us with 3 holes in our SP rotation and one at 3B.

That’s my big issue. These guys are getting market rate so you are only clearing the books and we are very unlikely to take on free agents.

AtillaTheBlue1 wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 16:40 pm many teams in contention need pitching

the yankees need a lot of it.

An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 16:05 pmThere is zero chance they'd get anything for Sonny Gray.

Karmaloop3 wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 21:16 pm

An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 16:05 pmThere is zero chance they'd get anything for Sonny Gray.

I very much doubt that Gray is a pure salary dump. I do think they'd need to kick in some cash in order to get some real value in return.

jbrach wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 15:25 pm

Turn2 wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 15:16 pm It was my understanding that we are in the wild card race…why trade our best SP?

the cards are going nowhere this year...gray who has a 4.33 ERA this year is due 35 mill next year...he could help a contender and if somebody made a compelling offer let him go

jbrach wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 15:25 pm

Turn2 wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 15:16 pm It was my understanding that we are in the wild card race…why trade our best SP?

the cards are going nowhere this year...gray who has a 4.33 ERA this year is due 35 mill next year...he could help a contender and if somebody made a compelling offer let him go

An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 21:30 pmHow much, $15-20MM? Is DeWitt doing that?

Karmaloop3 wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 08:51 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 21:30 pmHow much, $15-20MM? Is DeWitt doing that?

I mean, the Cardinals paid to dump Mike Leake on the Mariners. Not saying that they're going to be thrilled doing so, but if the Cardinals have the financial wiggle room to do so in order to maximize the return they should do so. And I'd say it's more on a sliding scale. If they're only willing to do $5M-$10M, it's probably only a marginal upgrade in prospects. I believe the last iteration had the cost of a single WAR being ~$9M. He's probably safely a 3.5 WAR player next year, so $31.5 and he's set to make $35M.

An Old Friend wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 09:00 amHe's at 1.0 fWAR / 1.3 bWAR
His ZiPS projection is 1.8
He hasn't posted a 3.5 WAR season since 2022

So to "safely" project him at 3.5 WAR next year... is absurd. Any acquiring team will likely be projecting him at half that number, and the value / return for a projection below 2 WAR is very little.

So at that point, you're throwing in $15-20MM to get a marginal prospect.

jbrach wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 15:25 pm

Turn2 wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 15:16 pm It was my understanding that we are in the wild card race…why trade our best SP?

the cards are going nowhere this year...gray who has a 4.33 ERA this year is due 35 mill next year...he could help a contender and if somebody made a compelling offer let him go

PadsFS07 wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 17:01 pm

Midrange Jay wrote: ↑26 Jul 2025 15:30 pm We would get nothing of return for Arenado and Gray. They would be salary dumps, leaving us with 3 holes in our SP rotation and one at 3B.

That’s my big issue. These guys are getting market rate so you are only clearing the books and we are very unlikely to take on free agents.

Karmaloop3 wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 09:29 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 09:00 amHe's at 1.0 fWAR / 1.3 bWAR
His ZiPS projection is 1.8
He hasn't posted a 3.5 WAR season since 2022

So to "safely" project him at 3.5 WAR next year... is absurd. Any acquiring team will likely be projecting him at half that number, and the value / return for a projection below 2 WAR is very little.

So at that point, you're throwing in $15-20MM to get a marginal prospect.

Personally, I prefer FanGraphs to Baseball-Reference but that's largely preference.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/sonny ... position=P

Sonny Gray is currently at 2.8 fWAR with anywhere between 1 and 1.3 fWAR projected for the rest of the season. Last year, he was 3.8 fWAR and the year before he was 5.4 WAR. He hasn't dipped below 2.5 fWAR since 2020. Ironically speaking, as long as he's stayed healthy he's usually productive. For seasons in which he threw 150+ innings, he's minimally 2.5 fWAR. In seasons in which he threw 165+ innings, he's never posted a fWAR lower than 3.5 fWAR. So I guess if your'e projecting injuries, yeah, he's not a safe bet to hit 3.5 fWAR.

The problem is there's really not SP available. Right now, the "best" names include Mitch Keller, Sandy Alcantara, and Zac Gallen. The problem is you're not going to get a ton of surplus value out of him, and the bigger road block is his NTC.