Are the Cards really that far away?

[greyhawk]

nice post and i respect your opinion -- but how far away from what? printing playoff tickets for the first round? i know we have been spoiled but until we have some difference makers in the rotation and in the batters box it may possibly be just a bit better team than avg which can get you into the playoffs. Here's hoping some of the youngsters are better and/or get better and can become a difference maker... no one on this team right now qualifies for that moniker.

This 2026 roster leaves a hell of a lot of dry powder, so yeah, there's opportunity to spend or trade for players under $ contracts and fill several those holes. There is a path to winning a playoff series or more.

and i completely agree with that -- but will they spend $$ to make it happen? I think my premise pretty much assumes they are not going to do that.

[Carp4Cy]

nice post and i respect your opinion -- but how far away from what? printing playoff tickets for the first round? i know we have been spoiled but until we have some difference makers in the rotation and in the batters box it may possibly be just a bit better team than avg which can get you into the playoffs. Here's hoping some of the youngsters are better and/or get better and can become a difference maker... no one on this team right now qualifies for that moniker.

This 2026 roster leaves a hell of a lot of dry powder, so yeah, there's opportunity to spend or trade for players under $ contracts and fill several those holes. There is a path to winning a playoff series or more.

and i completely agree with that -- but will they spend $$ to make it happen? I think my premise pretty much assumes they are not going to do that.

You may be right, but the rationale for the reset was to save money while we waited for the farm to produce some contributing prospects. Now those prospects are on the cusp of producing: McGreevey, JJW, are ready now and probably Doyle sometime in 2026. And because of that, plus Libby, Graceffo, Hererra, even Winn and to an extent Scott (and Jojo, Leahy, Obrien doing pretty well) we are saving a ton of $ on roster spots already and have money to spend where we need more talent from outside.

The flip side was that ownership has to do their part and fill in with Veterans once the farm produces what it can and decide to compete again. That timeline needs to be 2026, because we don't have anymore 60/70 grade franchise changing prospects left after JJW and Doyle promote, and we can't draft top 10 again in 26 after getting the high lotto numbers in 24 and 25 - we are blocked.

So the farm isn't projected to produce any outsized returns in 27/28, just normal talent replacement, but not worth putting the franchise on hold for any longer. So the correct thing to do is seize the opportunity and try to compete all 6 years we have JJW under control and not waste those years waiting on further resets where we hemmorage controllable years of producers as fast or faster than the farm can replace them.

[An Old Friend]

the rationale for the reset was to save money while we waited for the farm to produce some contributing prospects.

Don't think so... rationale for the reset was to change their model and lower their payroll baseline due to their reduced and uncertain future revenue streams. They lost their shorts on their cable deal and the reality is that their brand has been dying... they're moving to a small market mindset.

[Cusecards]

That far away from competing to win the NLC?
I don’t think so. Partly because I think the Brewers and Cubs will return to Earth a bit moving forward.
Having said that .....I don’t get all the gloom & doom but this team does have some major issues to address moving forward.
#1 to me is the rotation. And I get that it’s in need of repair.
And since I’m by nature an optimist I’ve got my fingers crossed that a couple of young arms can emerge in the next year or so out of Mathews/Doyle/Roby/Hence/Franklin/etc.
Can’t build a rotation through free agency!
#2 I think is Coaching/Leadership. This team needs an overhaul with regard to playing fundamental baseball.
I do have concerns with position players but I’m fairly optimistic with the young guys they have and those on the cusp of contributing!

[Ronnie Dobbs]

That may be what happens, but its unnecessary to take that long, and risks losing more fans forever. We have so much payroll coming off the books the past 2 years there is plenty of room to spend. Our 2 franchise prospects should be ready in 2026 - JJW at the start and Doyle likely at some point during the season. Matthews, Roby, Hence, Robberse, etc are as likely to be ready in 2026 as they are to never be MLB producers, so I wouldn't say they are worth putting the franchise on hold for. Who else projects 3+ WAR in 2027 and absolutely won't be ready in 2026? We don't have that level of prospect that far away. And the lower prospects can be filled in for a short contracts elsewhere in the meantime. Its time to take a risk, spend the money weve been saving, and build a team around JJW (and hopefully Doyle) while we have them for cheap and not waste their years just waiting until someone is ready to spend.

Sorry if I'm misunderstanding you, but are the types of players who are willing to take short term contracts really going to put us over the top enough to be successful in 2026 and 2027?

[Melville]

Replace Super Slo Mo and The Marmot (including all coaches).
Acquire a truly established, consistent, healthy, productive, ASG level, RH hitting corner outfield middle order bat.
Acquire 2 starting pitchers.
Trade Mootbaar.
Dump N/A however is necessary.
Instant playoff team in 2026.

[peterman'srealitytour]

Replace Super Slo Mo and The Marmot (including all coaches).
Acquire a truly established, consistent, healthy, productive, ASG level, RH hitting corner outfield middle order bat.
Acquire 2 starting pitchers.
Trade Mootbaar.
Dump N/A however is necessary.
Instant playoff team in 2026.

Wow, that’s some really hard hitting, research driven analysis you did there.

When someone ask you the secret to getting rich, do you tell them to make a lot of money first?

[CNYFan]

Yes

[Youboughtit]

There is a lot of work to do. SP needs at least 2 additions. Will need to find a closer if Helsley is dealt. And need a RH power bat.

^^^THIS^^^

A MOTO RH power bat and a TOR SP to be exact. They need the 2 hardest things to get. Superstars

[11WSChamps]

Light years away.

Rotation is a dumpster fire.

Nobody in the lineup alters any opponents game plan.

The country club atmosphere is beyond toxic.

[Bad14]

Only if they choose to be. Signing Valdez and King/Lugo/Kelly would dramatically improve this rotation. May have to overpay for a power hitting DH like Schwarber or Suarez (he's not good at 3rd). That could mean parting with Burly and/or Herrera. Preferably Burly since he's a lefty. You sure don't want both of them in the outfield. The good news you'll get something useful in exchange. If they're not willing to spend $$$ then the simple answer is no.

[Dazepster]

Yes.

Need 3 starting outfielders and 3 to 4 starters. At a minimum.

[scoutyjones2]

So not unusual to read on here how bad the Cards are, whether it's tear it all down or the Cards just stink type responses.
Well, guess I'm more optimistic about the future than that, but whether that's warranted IDK.
Anyway, here's a projected 2026 lineup with just the current personnel.

Donovan 2B or 3B, Herrera either LF or DH, Wetherholt 3B or 2B, Contreras 1B, Burleson DH or LF, Winn SS, Crooks/Pozo C, Noot/Walker RF, VS2 CF. Bench of one of the C's, Gorman, Saggese and Church. Bernal not ready yet, instead in AAA biding his time, as is Baez.

So the difference between Wetherholt and Arenado to this point of the season could be about 2 wins, as NA is sitting currently in the +1 bWAR range, and I don't think it unrealistic to project at this point next season JJW could be in the current Donovan range of around +3.
The dif between the C's to date could be about 1 win, so positionally we picked up 3 wins, so instead of 53-51 in this hypothetical, we're now up to 56-48.

OK, now for the rotation. Maybe McGreevy over Fedde would be 2 wins better, as the Cards record in Fedde starts is ugly.
Be kind of nice projecting a Doyle over Mikolas difference, but I don't think Doyle starts the 2026 season is STL, so I'm going with a random SP guy in the system who is 1 win better than Miles, which doesn't seem to be much of a stretch. Alright, another 3 wins year over year and now we're up to 59-45.
A healthier Herrera now relieved of any C duties might gain another win, so I'll remain silly and now say 60- 44, why not, lol. Going by this year, that puts the Cards right up there with the best teams............... Wow, just noticed the Tigers have lost 9 of their last 10. ahh, that's too bad.

Now post deadline, we probably trade away BP guys that have helped the team to this point, so the last 2 months may look bad before the Cards can strive to revamp to an again effective BP for 2026, but 2026 has some promise imo, for what that's not worth, and that's w/o adding anything from outside the org. About everybody thinks the Cards need to add a big bat, and maybe that's right, but possibly adding a healthier Herrera with Wetherholt is that big win in offensive production.

Anyway, thanks for your time if you read this mess.

Yes they are

[ClassicO]

Replace Super Slo Mo and The Marmot (including all coaches).
Acquire a truly established, consistent, healthy, productive, ASG level, RH hitting corner outfield middle order bat.
Acquire 2 starting pitchers.
Trade Mootbaar.
Dump N/A however is necessary.
Instant playoff team in 2026.

Wow, that’s some really hard hitting, research driven analysis you did there.

When someone ask you the secret to getting rich, do you tell them to make a lot of money first?

Agree. There are healthy, established MOTO bats all over. How about Judge!!??
And acquiring two SPs is a breeze.
More Mel-sophistry: fallacious arguments with the intention of deceiving others, otherwise known as B*S*.

[Bad14]

Thank you

[Carp4Cy]

That may be what happens, but its unnecessary to take that long, and risks losing more fans forever. We have so much payroll coming off the books the past 2 years there is plenty of room to spend. Our 2 franchise prospects should be ready in 2026 - JJW at the start and Doyle likely at some point during the season. Matthews, Roby, Hence, Robberse, etc are as likely to be ready in 2026 as they are to never be MLB producers, so I wouldn't say they are worth putting the franchise on hold for. Who else projects 3+ WAR in 2027 and absolutely won't be ready in 2026? We don't have that level of prospect that far away. And the lower prospects can be filled in for a short contracts elsewhere in the meantime. Its time to take a risk, spend the money weve been saving, and build a team around JJW (and hopefully Doyle) while we have them for cheap and not waste their years just waiting until someone is ready to spend.

Sorry if I'm misunderstanding you, but are the types of players who are willing to take short term contracts really going to put us over the top enough to be successful in 2026 and 2027?

Beltran put us over the top (of the NL) in 2013. Or just make trades. Lots of bounce back candidates out there for just a few $. Bryan Renolds if we are just willing to pay his salary. Oneil cruz for a decent prospect? Others too.