The Reds happen to have a better run differntial than all but two teams in the NL.. the Cubs & NY Mets
163 runs scored with 126 runs allowed a +37 Checking the espected W-L record for that +37 shows a record of 20-12
which is 3 games better than their 17-15 actual record.
You've just described the entire NLC, not counting the can't-score Pirates.
Per Fangraphs Pythag numbers,
Code: Select all
Cubs 21 11 .650 2 games better
Reds 20 12 .619 3
Brewers 18 14 .550 2
Cardinals 16 16 .506 2
Pirates 12 20 .367 0
We're barely 20 percent through the season, looking at the weakest MLB division teams, using a stat that varies greatly based on quality of opposition, injuries, team match-ups, etc. IOW, it's a very noisy approach. It can be fun, hell it is fun, but it's not necessarily predictive.