STLtoday.com

OldRed wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 19:10 pm

Melville wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 19:01 pm

Talkin' Baseball wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 12:23 pm

Melville wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:47 am

Goldfan wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:48 am

Melville wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:42 am The writer of this piece appears to have studied this thread and taken notes of my correct analysis.
Or perhaps he is simply intelligent and understands this game nearly as well as I do.
Either way, a solid take.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/th ... af67&ei=16
Trade Nootbaar.
Keep Gorman and Burleson for 2026 due to upside potential and then decide future fit.
Be willing to move Donovan (I correctly advise doing so next July, not this off-season) for the right return.
Could not possibly be more obvious that this is the correct approach concerning these four.

At the end of my rope with Gorman. He shows no sign of improvement. They closed his stance early this season and his power was nullified. He went back to open stance and flying open. He’ll hit some HR but not bat any better than .220 with way too many K’s. Those Possible 25HR don’t make up for that

Yes, he strikes out too much.
(He also draws walks at higher rate than anyone on the team).
All that aside is, production is what wins or loses games and that will be true as long as games are decided by which side touches home plate more.
Reality, even with the flaws in his game, Gorman has a proven track record.
Give him 600 PA's and he will produce 80+ RBI and 80 runs scored.
That is a fact.
The team has no other 2b/3b who can do so.
That is also a fact.
Zero question he must be retained until such time as a better option is proven.

Between injury, inability to hit left handers, and general extreme steakiness, it takes nearly two seasons to get 600 PA. So while your statement is generally true- what the team gets is more like 40 RBI's and runs scored per season.

Opinions are fine.
Facts are much better.
Against LH pitching Gorman was .220/.301/439/.740 with 5 HR and 17 RBI in 93 PA's.
That is excellent work for a LH bat.
And it was far better than Nootbaar.
And far better than Scott.
And...wait for it....far better than Burleson.
And far better than RH hitting Saggese against LH pitching.

Give it up... you don't know [shirt].

hmoss859 wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 19:13 pm Gotta let your Gorman bro crush go

He is a subpar defender, baserunners runner and whiffs ways too much

Has hit nearly 1500 MLB plate appearances so it’s not a small sample size

Melville wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 19:31 pm
Gorman was more productive against LHP than Herrera was against RHP.
Again, no conclusion, no opinions, just reporting the data factually.

Melville wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 15:44 pm In the next couple of weeks, we should begin to see if Bloom can execute "The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following."
I have given the blueprint for 2026 and beyond.
Now, it up to him.
Going to be very interesting to see what he does.

Dicktar2023 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 16:35 pm

Melville wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 15:44 pm In the next couple of weeks, we should begin to see if Bloom can execute "The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following."
I have given the blueprint for 2026 and beyond.
Now, it up to him.
Going to be very interesting to see what he does.

Since the foot problems, Cardinal State Media has shifted towards keeping Noobaar until he can "recover his trade value"--an idea so insane that it could only come from BDW. That means the OF plan is set (Noot, Scott, Walker) and will be the worst in MLB.

And it should signal that Donovan is about to be traded, but we'll see if he's worth as much as BDW thinks he is. If not, it's one more step towards running out the very same flawed roster that made everyone want to burn Mo at the stake.

45s wrote: ↑30 Sep 2025 10:05 am

Melville wrote: ↑30 Sep 2025 09:49 am It is too soon to determine the Bloom/DeWitt objective for 2026 and beyond.
Perhaps they drag payroll even lower, perhaps they want to scrape to the bare earth and start over.
But that isn't necessary.
If they desire for the team to win at least 85/86 games next year, and 90+ in years following, it can be accomplished quite easily.
The organization can be fixed in 30 days or less - and I am happy to provide the correct roadmap.
But strategic decision making can only be effective if based on current data.
So, let’s start there.
First, the adequate and the good.
The 2025 STL offense was almost exactly middle of the pack in both BA (.245 with .247 being the MLB midpoint) and OBP (.314 vs. .315 midpoint.)
Note concerning OBP – only Nootbaar (11%) and Gorman (12%) drew walks at an above average rate.
Strikeouts were not really an issue since the team was just 40 above the MLB midpoint for the entire season.
STL excelled at hitting doubles, ranking 10 best and a reason for optimism.
No significant issues in those metrics.
Now the bad.
29th in HR (only 4 players were on pace for 20+ HR per 600 PA’s (Contreras, Herrera, Gorman, Burleson).
30th in triples.
20th in SB, with only Scott surpassing 10 for the year.
Team was 7th worst at GIDP with 115 (Herrera worst by a wide margin with 20; Gorman best with just 1).
These facts dictate why the team was 19th in MLB in runs scored, and 12th out of 16 NL team.
The outfield was easily the primary issue for the offense: the 3 starters (Nootbaar/Scott/Walker) scored a pathetic 68, 54, and 40 runs, while “driving in” an even worse 48, 41, and 37.
As I alone was first and best to analyze and explain many years ago, the outfield is the area of horrific weakness and currently has zero adequate starters.
Next, let’s look at roster construction going into 2026, examining the 15 position players most likely under consideration for a roster spot.
LH – BURLESON, DONOVAN, WETHERHOLT, CROOKS, GORMAN, NOOTBAAR, SCOTT, CHURCH
RH – WALKER, PAGES, CONTRERAS, HERRERA, WINN, SAGGESE, FERMIN
4 outfielders, 8 infielders, 2 catchers, 1 with no real position.
What does the data establish?
The outfield is a disaster.
Overall, the lineup has not enough power, is too slow, has too many LH bats.
Here is the roster solution for 2026 and the correct off-season plan to achieve it:
The team simply cannot trade what little power it has, meaning Contreras (1B/DH), Burleson (1B, DH, RF), Gorman (3B/2B,1B), and Herrera (TBD) must be retained for 2026.
The team can ill afford to get even slower, so Scott must be retained in CF and be given another opportunity.
No discussion needed that Winn must return at SS - primarily for the glove but the bat is certainly more than adequate on a properly constructed roster.
A RH/LH tandem of Pages/Crooks at catcher is the most probable at that spot.
Herrera's power may or may not be real (he hit nearly 2/3 of his HR in just 4 weeks), but he needs to find a position, with outfield being the best option while rotating through DH appearances.
Wetherholt is going to play (2B is best option) and if he hits, he should belong at leadoff - but it will be wise to have insurance.
That leaves Nootbaar, Donovan, Church, Walker, Saggese, and Fermin as the question marks.
Here is the correct answer to each.
Trade Nootbaar.
Trade Walker.
Trade Saggese or Fermin, whichever is preferred by an acquiring team as part of a larger package.
Move Donovan to LF - and he doubles as infield insurance in the event of underperformance.
Church is a passable 5th outfielder - but a RH hitting bench CF option might be an upgrade (worth noting that Joshua Baez should get long looks in CF in Memphis to begin 2026).
This is the 100% correct answer with each of the current roster options.
But it leaves one critical need unmet.
The team simply must add a RH hitting, ASG quality, productive, middle order bat (3rd or 4th) outfield bat - as I alone have unerringly and consistently stated for 5+ years.
By shopping/packaging Nootbaar, Walker, Saggese or Fermin, as well as 40-man roster fillers Pozo, Prieto, Koperniak, & Siani, along with prospects such as Bernal and C. Davis, there are plenty of trade pieces available (pitchers will be discussed later) to make that acquisition.
Finally, depending on a number of factors, this would potentially leave the team with one extra LH bat (Burleson, Donovan, Gorman, Scott) to use as a trade piece in July to address needs which emerge before the trade deadline - but these 4 should be retained until then.
There you have it.
The 100% fully accurate plan (completely unbiased, of course), to address position player roster decisions for 2026 and beyond.
My 100% fully accurate plan for the pitching staff will likely be provided this evening.
If STL does precisely as I advise, the team will win 85+games next season.
I give my personal guarantee.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

and if monkeys fly out of your butt you can join the circus

ClassicO wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 13:40 pm

Melville wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 19:31 pm
Gorman was more productive against LHP than Herrera was against RHP.
Again, no conclusion, no opinions, just reporting the data factually.

Why would you even try to find such an obtuse stat, especially when it's not necessarily true? Oh, maybe you've said that Herrera is "just isn't very good" while telling us all Gorman is a unicorn!

First, Herrera's OPS was higher vs RHP (.741) than Gorman's (.740) vs lefties. So IV's hitting it slightly better than NG against same-side pitching, and the corresponding runs/PA and RBI/PA are statistically insignificant. And Herrera had an incredible 1.115 vs LHP in 124 PAs while Gorman had a .644 OPS vs RHP.
Second, Gorman didn't face all lefties - only the ones they thought he could have a chance.
Third, Gorman had a 27% K-rate vs LHP. No strikeout is productive.

And is this some a*s-backwards way of trying to say Gorman is productive? He's not. He has been productively worse in the last 3 seasons, despite getting over 400 PAs.

Cusecards wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 19:16 pm ME-ville obviously follows the game and does make valid points.
It’s a bit of a shame that he can’t resist the CONSTANT urge to pat himself on the back while being a narcissistic fraud.
Of course he’s harmless and it is an anonymous forum but you’d think he’d show more maturity?
In the meantime we’ll always have daily comic relief from the Sideshow Clown.
Easy
Obvious
Correct

Cranny wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 20:09 pm

Cusecards wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 19:16 pm ME-ville obviously follows the game and does make valid points.
It’s a bit of a shame that he can’t resist the CONSTANT urge to pat himself on the back while being a narcissistic fraud.
Of course he’s harmless and it is an anonymous forum but you’d think he’d show more maturity?
In the meantime we’ll always have daily comic relief from the Sideshow Clown.
Easy
Obvious
Correct

Right on. Too bad Melville has to use his tired schtick. If he would drop it, he’d be a very good poster.

Cranny wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 20:09 pm

Cusecards wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 19:16 pm ME-ville obviously follows the game and does make valid points.
It’s a bit of a shame that he can’t resist the CONSTANT urge to pat himself on the back while being a narcissistic fraud.
Of course he’s harmless and it is an anonymous forum but you’d think he’d show more maturity?
In the meantime we’ll always have daily comic relief from the Sideshow Clown.
Easy
Obvious
Correct

Right on. Too bad Melville has to use his tired schtick. If he would drop it, he’d be a very good poster.

Melville wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 20:39 pm

Cranny wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 20:09 pm

Cusecards wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 19:16 pm ME-ville obviously follows the game and does make valid points.
It’s a bit of a shame that he can’t resist the CONSTANT urge to pat himself on the back while being a narcissistic fraud.
Of course he’s harmless and it is an anonymous forum but you’d think he’d show more maturity?
In the meantime we’ll always have daily comic relief from the Sideshow Clown.
Easy
Obvious
Correct

Right on. Too bad Melville has to use his tired schtick. If he would drop it, he’d be a very good poster.

Never about me.
Only and always about the game.

Melville wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 20:39 pm

Cranny wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 20:09 pm

Cusecards wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 19:16 pm ME-ville obviously follows the game and does make valid points.
It’s a bit of a shame that he can’t resist the CONSTANT urge to pat himself on the back while being a narcissistic fraud.
Of course he’s harmless and it is an anonymous forum but you’d think he’d show more maturity?
In the meantime we’ll always have daily comic relief from the Sideshow Clown.
Easy
Obvious
Correct

Right on. Too bad Melville has to use his tired schtick. If he would drop it, he’d be a very good poster.

Never about me.
Only and always about the game.

Melville wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 20:39 pm

Cranny wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 20:09 pm

Cusecards wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 19:16 pm ME-ville obviously follows the game and does make valid points.
It’s a bit of a shame that he can’t resist the CONSTANT urge to pat himself on the back while being a narcissistic fraud.
Of course he’s harmless and it is an anonymous forum but you’d think he’d show more maturity?
In the meantime we’ll always have daily comic relief from the Sideshow Clown.
Easy
Obvious
Correct

Right on. Too bad Melville has to use his tired schtick. If he would drop it, he’d be a very good poster.

Never about me.
Only and always about the game.