Noah Cameron is rumored for Donovan

[mattmitchl44]

Fair take on the swing and miss goal, but I think it could be overstated. I doubt they meant there’s no longer any room at all for a good pitch to contact guy, just maybe that we had too many, or strikeout guys would be the primary foundation.

Wouldn’t hurt to be a little versatile. Trends change yearly sometimes and the ability to throw different stuff at opponents isn’t a bad thing.

I think there are quality guys in both categories and bad ones in both too. Probably depends more on what’s between the ears, at least for the ones that seem to defy numerous indicators.

I'll refer you to the data from Page 6:

Of the top 18 qualified pitchers in ERA (ERAs below 3.50) in 2025

7 were 10+ K/9
7 were 9 to 10 K/9
2 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Boyd)
1 was 6 to 7 K/9 (Bello)

Of pitchers over 2021-2025 who threw at least 300 IP, 52 have ERAs below 3.50

23 were 10+ K/9
11 were 9 to 10 K/9
15 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Javier Assad)
2 were 6 to 7 K/9 (Tyler Rogers, RP; Wade Miley)

It is extremely unlikely to be a #1/#2 SP today without at least 8 K/9.

I would draw the line at 8+ K/9 being more "swing and miss" and below 8 K/9 being more "pitch to contact."

The best pitchers - with the lowest ERAs - in 2025 are heavily tilted towards "swing and miss" pitchers.

If I ran the same study for 1991-1995, there were 42 pitchers with 300+ IP and ERAs below 3.50

2 were 10+ K/9
1 was 9 to 10 K/9
5 were 8 to 9 K/9
14 were 7 to 8 K/9
9 were 6 to 7 K/9
10 were 5 to 6 K/9
1 was 4 to 5 K/9

Different eras.

[renostl]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

There are pitcher though in the market that can be bought for 2 seasons now. Repeat again in 2 seasons. It's an annual event anyway by all teams. Pitchers that can be had for 4 seasons. I just don't really see this as a "well this is the best we could do"
What purpose does that serve when nothing says Donovan has to be dealt.
The motivation to move this player is to improve the roster now and in the future, IF the player or players returned
for Donovan doesn't reach that criteria then the goal isn't matched. IF it's pitching Donovan or Donovan+ are being dealt
for that pitcher should project as a #3 or better either now or in the future.

Now I could say Cameron is a #3 or a #5, doesn't matter. What the Cards say matters and IMO
their assessment should say #3 or better or go rent it. Mahle, Littell, Gio, Bassitt, Eflin, Gio, etc.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Fair take on the swing and miss goal, but I think it could be overstated. I doubt they meant there’s no longer any room at all for a good pitch to contact guy, just maybe that we had too many, or strikeout guys would be the primary foundation.

Wouldn’t hurt to be a little versatile. Trends change yearly sometimes and the ability to throw different stuff at opponents isn’t a bad thing.

I think there are quality guys in both categories and bad ones in both too. Probably depends more on what’s between the ears, at least for the ones that seem to defy numerous indicators.

I'll refer you to the data from Page 6:

Of the top 18 qualified pitchers in ERA (ERAs below 3.50) in 2025

7 were 10+ K/9
7 were 9 to 10 K/9
2 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Boyd)
1 was 6 to 7 K/9 (Bello)

Of pitchers over 2021-2025 who threw at least 300 IP, 52 have ERAs below 3.50

23 were 10+ K/9
11 were 9 to 10 K/9
15 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Javier Assad)
2 were 6 to 7 K/9 (Tyler Rogers, RP; Wade Miley)

It is extremely unlikely to be a #1/#2 SP today without at least 8 K/9.

I would draw the line at 8+ K/9 being more "swing and miss" and below 8 K/9 being more "pitch to contact."

The best pitchers - with the lowest ERAs - in 2025 are heavily tilted towards "swing and miss" pitchers.

If I ran the same study for 1991-1995, there were 42 pitchers with 300+ IP and ERAs below 3.50

2 were 10+ K/9
1 was 9 to 10 K/9
5 were 8 to 9 K/9
14 were 7 to 8 K/9
9 were 6 to 7 K/9
10 were 5 to 6 K/9
1 was 4 to 5 K/9

Different eras.

And soon there will be the dawn of a new era where things cycle back again, especially when hitters realize swinging for the fence in every situation, striking out 200 times and completely ignoring situational hitting are not conducive to winning baseball. There should already be a shift back seeing that hitters are letting pitchers dominate them due to the poor approach and plate discipline vs the velocity.

The managers and hitting coaches who understand this will cycle back and will find success and be called geniuses.

I can appreciate the work you put in on digging up the numbers as it makes for interesting comparison. The reason I don’t fully buy in is because poor hitting approach is helping shape those numbers, not just the pitchers skillsets. I believe there will always be room for good control guys who induce weak contact and every team could use a couple of guys like that. The amount of double plays induced and easy outs on weak contact provide some counterbalance to the lower K/9 as well.

It’s not wise to build an entire pitching staff based off of one metric like K/9. Also not wise to overlook guys who defy the trends and metrics and write them off as mediocre and lucky. TLR said no ballplayer is the same. Some are just good at playing the game their way, regardless of the current trends.

[renostl]

Fair take on the swing and miss goal, but I think it could be overstated. I doubt they meant there’s no longer any room at all for a good pitch to contact guy, just maybe that we had too many, or strikeout guys would be the primary foundation.

Wouldn’t hurt to be a little versatile. Trends change yearly sometimes and the ability to throw different stuff at opponents isn’t a bad thing.

I think there are quality guys in both categories and bad ones in both too. Probably depends more on what’s between the ears, at least for the ones that seem to defy numerous indicators.

I'll refer you to the data from Page 6:

Of the top 18 qualified pitchers in ERA (ERAs below 3.50) in 2025

7 were 10+ K/9
7 were 9 to 10 K/9
2 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Boyd)
1 was 6 to 7 K/9 (Bello)

Of pitchers over 2021-2025 who threw at least 300 IP, 52 have ERAs below 3.50

23 were 10+ K/9
11 were 9 to 10 K/9
15 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Javier Assad)
2 were 6 to 7 K/9 (Tyler Rogers, RP; Wade Miley)

It is extremely unlikely to be a #1/#2 SP today without at least 8 K/9.

I would draw the line at 8+ K/9 being more "swing and miss" and below 8 K/9 being more "pitch to contact."

The best pitchers - with the lowest ERAs - in 2025 are heavily tilted towards "swing and miss" pitchers.

If I ran the same study for 1991-1995, there were 42 pitchers with 300+ IP and ERAs below 3.50

2 were 10+ K/9
1 was 9 to 10 K/9
5 were 8 to 9 K/9
14 were 7 to 8 K/9
9 were 6 to 7 K/9
10 were 5 to 6 K/9
1 was 4 to 5 K/9

Different eras.

And soon there will be the dawn of a new era where things cycle back again, especially when hitters realize swinging for the fence in every situation, striking out 200 times and completely ignoring situational hitting are not conducive to winning baseball. There should already be a shift back seeing that hitters are letting pitchers dominate them due to the poor approach and plate discipline vs the velocity.

The managers and hitting coaches who understand this will cycle back and will find success and be called geniuses.

I can appreciate the work you put in on digging up the numbers as it makes for interesting comparison. The reason I don’t fully buy in is because poor hitting approach is helping shape those numbers, not just the pitchers skillsets. I believe there will always be room for good control guys who induce weak contact and every team could use a couple of guys like that. The amount of double plays induced and easy outs on weak contact provide some counterbalance to the lower K/9 as well.

It is cyclical and imo, more entertaining
What get the money is what players will do.

In
1982 there was 4.30 runs per game per team 8.93 hits
1992 4.12 and 8.68
2002 4.62 and 8.92
2012 4.32 and 8.65
2022 4.28 and 8.16
2025 4.45 and 8.26

Strike outs might not matter as much as it seems in hits or runs.
Would we guess 1982 had less scoring than 2025?

It is a portion why eras are going up but runs fluctuation is fairly consistent
once we take out the high of 4.62 and low of 4.12 in 1992. +/- .17 over 43 years.
less innings pitched, same runs being scored.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Fair take on the swing and miss goal, but I think it could be overstated. I doubt they meant there’s no longer any room at all for a good pitch to contact guy, just maybe that we had too many, or strikeout guys would be the primary foundation.

Wouldn’t hurt to be a little versatile. Trends change yearly sometimes and the ability to throw different stuff at opponents isn’t a bad thing.

I think there are quality guys in both categories and bad ones in both too. Probably depends more on what’s between the ears, at least for the ones that seem to defy numerous indicators.

I'll refer you to the data from Page 6:

Of the top 18 qualified pitchers in ERA (ERAs below 3.50) in 2025

7 were 10+ K/9
7 were 9 to 10 K/9
2 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Boyd)
1 was 6 to 7 K/9 (Bello)

Of pitchers over 2021-2025 who threw at least 300 IP, 52 have ERAs below 3.50

23 were 10+ K/9
11 were 9 to 10 K/9
15 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Javier Assad)
2 were 6 to 7 K/9 (Tyler Rogers, RP; Wade Miley)

It is extremely unlikely to be a #1/#2 SP today without at least 8 K/9.

I would draw the line at 8+ K/9 being more "swing and miss" and below 8 K/9 being more "pitch to contact."

The best pitchers - with the lowest ERAs - in 2025 are heavily tilted towards "swing and miss" pitchers.

If I ran the same study for 1991-1995, there were 42 pitchers with 300+ IP and ERAs below 3.50

2 were 10+ K/9
1 was 9 to 10 K/9
5 were 8 to 9 K/9
14 were 7 to 8 K/9
9 were 6 to 7 K/9
10 were 5 to 6 K/9
1 was 4 to 5 K/9

Different eras.

And soon there will be the dawn of a new era where things cycle back again, especially when hitters realize swinging for the fence in every situation, striking out 200 times and completely ignoring situational hitting are not conducive to winning baseball. There should already be a shift back seeing that hitters are letting pitchers dominate them due to the poor approach and plate discipline vs the velocity.

The managers and hitting coaches who understand this will cycle back and will find success and be called geniuses.

I can appreciate the work you put in on digging up the numbers as it makes for interesting comparison. The reason I don’t fully buy in is because poor hitting approach is helping shape those numbers, not just the pitchers skillsets. I believe there will always be room for good control guys who induce weak contact and every team could use a couple of guys like that. The amount of double plays induced and easy outs on weak contact provide some counterbalance to the lower K/9 as well.

It is cyclical and imo, more entertaining
What get the money is what players will do.

In
1982 there was 4.30 runs per game per team 8.93 hits
1992 4.12 and 8.68
2002 4.62 and 8.92
2012 4.32 and 8.65
2022 4.28 and 8.16
2025 4.45 and 8.26

Strike outs might not matter as much as it seems in hits or runs.
Would we guess 1982 had less scoring than 2025?

It is a portion why eras are going up but runs fluctuation is fairly consistent
once we take out the high of 4.62 and low of 4.12 in 1992. +/- .17 over 43 years.
less innings pitched, same runs being scored.

Good and interesting stuff, as was MattMitch’s numbers too. I agree that hitters will do what pays.

I’m not really surprised the scoring in 82 is similar to today, but as you mentioned, a lot more entertaining than the three outcome era.

All things considered, I think there is still room for different approaches in pitching and hitting and I don’t care much for cherry picking metrics to try and prove a guy is just lucky and diminish their accomplishments.

Success is success, and some guys prove they belong in different ways, so as far as the Donovan for Cameron possibility, I won’t complain if they land him, regardless of the throw ins. I think he’d be a good, and much needed get. Tired of waiting on potential and worrying about ceilings and floors all the time.

[renostl]

Fair take on the swing and miss goal, but I think it could be overstated. I doubt they meant there’s no longer any room at all for a good pitch to contact guy, just maybe that we had too many, or strikeout guys would be the primary foundation.

Wouldn’t hurt to be a little versatile. Trends change yearly sometimes and the ability to throw different stuff at opponents isn’t a bad thing.

I think there are quality guys in both categories and bad ones in both too. Probably depends more on what’s between the ears, at least for the ones that seem to defy numerous indicators.

I'll refer you to the data from Page 6:

Of the top 18 qualified pitchers in ERA (ERAs below 3.50) in 2025

7 were 10+ K/9
7 were 9 to 10 K/9
2 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Boyd)
1 was 6 to 7 K/9 (Bello)

Of pitchers over 2021-2025 who threw at least 300 IP, 52 have ERAs below 3.50

23 were 10+ K/9
11 were 9 to 10 K/9
15 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Javier Assad)
2 were 6 to 7 K/9 (Tyler Rogers, RP; Wade Miley)

It is extremely unlikely to be a #1/#2 SP today without at least 8 K/9.

I would draw the line at 8+ K/9 being more "swing and miss" and below 8 K/9 being more "pitch to contact."

The best pitchers - with the lowest ERAs - in 2025 are heavily tilted towards "swing and miss" pitchers.

If I ran the same study for 1991-1995, there were 42 pitchers with 300+ IP and ERAs below 3.50

2 were 10+ K/9
1 was 9 to 10 K/9
5 were 8 to 9 K/9
14 were 7 to 8 K/9
9 were 6 to 7 K/9
10 were 5 to 6 K/9
1 was 4 to 5 K/9

Different eras.

And soon there will be the dawn of a new era where things cycle back again, especially when hitters realize swinging for the fence in every situation, striking out 200 times and completely ignoring situational hitting are not conducive to winning baseball. There should already be a shift back seeing that hitters are letting pitchers dominate them due to the poor approach and plate discipline vs the velocity.

The managers and hitting coaches who understand this will cycle back and will find success and be called geniuses.

I can appreciate the work you put in on digging up the numbers as it makes for interesting comparison. The reason I don’t fully buy in is because poor hitting approach is helping shape those numbers, not just the pitchers skillsets. I believe there will always be room for good control guys who induce weak contact and every team could use a couple of guys like that. The amount of double plays induced and easy outs on weak contact provide some counterbalance to the lower K/9 as well.

It is cyclical and imo, more entertaining
What get the money is what players will do.

In
1982 there was 4.30 runs per game per team 8.93 hits
1992 4.12 and 8.68
2002 4.62 and 8.92
2012 4.32 and 8.65
2022 4.28 and 8.16
2025 4.45 and 8.26

Strike outs might not matter as much as it seems in hits or runs.
Would we guess 1982 had less scoring than 2025?

It is a portion why eras are going up but runs fluctuation is fairly consistent
once we take out the high of 4.62 and low of 4.12 in 1992. +/- .17 over 43 years.
less innings pitched, same runs being scored.

Good and interesting stuff, as was MattMitch’s numbers too. I agree that hitters will do what pays.

I’m not really surprised the scoring in 82 is similar to today, but as you mentioned, a lot more entertaining than the three outcome era.

All things considered, I think there is still room for different approaches in pitching and hitting and I don’t care much for cherry picking metrics to try and prove a guy is just lucky and diminish their accomplishments.

Success is success, and some guys prove they belong in different ways, so as far as the Donovan for Cameron possibility, I won’t complain if they land him, regardless of the throw ins. I think he’d be a good, and much needed get. Tired of waiting on potential and worrying about ceilings and floors all the time.

Don't we all. IF that's the trade, I will assume that he is the player that they want. Bloom sees good things,
after all he is not a finished product. There are some rational reasons for the choice.

In that 18 inning WS games. A future HOF guy came up in the B13th, he's known as a team first situational
hitter etc, Freddie. Bases loaded 2 outs a flyout to the CF track. It stuck with me because a hit by anyone wins
the game. series. Now Freddie won the game with that walk off HR. Still.