L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Welcome to STLtoday.com's forum for fans of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Moderators: STLtoday Forum Moderators, Cards Talk Moderators

11WSChamps
Forum User
Posts: 6956
Joined: 23 May 2024 13:35 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by 11WSChamps »

Bullpen has a chance to be pretty good next year even if there are no major additions although I'm sure there will be at least one.

O'Brien, Gastelum, Soriano, Stanek, Bruihl, Hjerpe and Graceffo as your long man. If not worked to death and being cheap thats not a bad group.

Like I say there will be some help coming but as a base to start from and for the cost not bad.
rockondlouie
Forum User
Posts: 19271
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:41 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by rockondlouie »

Basil Shabazz wrote: 27 Aug 2026 09:24 am Luis Gastelum has a world-class changeup. I think a big reason he got hit around early was that he was too predictable and hadn't yet learned how to properly set it up.

In the minors, he could probably get away with throwing the changeup whenever he wanted because the pitch itself was good enough to overwhelm hitters. That doesn't work nearly as well in the majors. MLB hitters will adjust, sit on it, and punish you if they know what's coming.

What has impressed me lately is how much better he's become at commanding his other pitches and using them to set up the changeup. Once he became less predictable, that changeup went from being a great pitch to an absolutely devastating one.

Hopefully it continues, because we've seen some really good closers over the years build their success around an elite changeup. L-Gas absolutely has that caliber of changeup. If he continues developing the pitches around it and keeps hitters from sitting on it, I think there's legitimate late-inning potential there.
Amen Basil

That thing is NASTY!
rockondlouie
Forum User
Posts: 19271
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:41 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by rockondlouie »

Basil Shabazz wrote: 27 Aug 2026 09:47 am Luis Gastelum’s changeup is legitimately elite, not just “good for a prospect.” Now that we have MLB Statcast data on it, there’s evidence that it can be a true high-leverage, closer-quality weapon.

In his 2026 MLB work, Gastelum’s changeup has produced:

52.1% whiff rate
43.9% strikeout rate in plate appearances ending on the pitch
.184 batting average
.169 xBA
.321 xSLG
.230 xwOBA
Only 19.0% hard-hit rate
He throws it 38.8% of the time, making it his most-used pitch.

A 52% whiff rate is monster territory. More than half of swings against the pitch are missing.

The pitch averages only 81.8 mph, compared with his 94.2 mph four-seamer—a massive 12+ mph velocity separation. But velocity differential isn't the only thing happening.

Statcast has the changeup at 44.6 inches of total vertical drop, about 5.7 inches more drop than comparable changeups. It also gets about 12 inches of arm-side movement.

That's essentially the profile you want: fastball arm speed, big velocity separation, tremendous depth and enough arm-side action that it isn't merely dropping—it is moving away from a left-handed hitter while it falls.

And this isn't something that suddenly appeared in MLB. In 2025, Baseball America reported a 54% whiff rate and 42.7% chase rate on the changeup in the minors. MLB scouts put a 70 grade on it—the scouting definition of a plus-plus pitch.
Great legwork Basil

53% wiff rate on that baby is sick.

And if he does catch them "sitting" on the change-up, then he blows that 94+ mph four-seamer past them!

Given RO'B's struggles lately, I'd like to see Oli give L-Gas a closing opportunity or two just to 1) see how he handles the 9th and 2) not a demotion but gives RO'B a chance to re-group throwing in the 8th for a game or two.
icon
Forum User
Posts: 7085
Joined: 23 May 2024 17:18 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by icon »

11WSChamps wrote: 27 Aug 2026 10:05 am Bullpen has a chance to be pretty good next year even if there are no major additions although I'm sure there will be at least one.

O'Brien, Gastelum, Soriano, Stanek, Bruihl, Hjerpe and Graceffo as your long man. If not worked to death and being cheap thats not a bad group.

Like I say there will be some help coming but as a base to start from and for the cost not bad.
I'm not so sure about a couple of those guys. Stanek has been up and down, and Soriano has been leaking oil of late.
11WSChamps
Forum User
Posts: 6956
Joined: 23 May 2024 13:35 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by 11WSChamps »

icon wrote: 27 Aug 2026 10:14 am
11WSChamps wrote: 27 Aug 2026 10:05 am Bullpen has a chance to be pretty good next year even if there are no major additions although I'm sure there will be at least one.

O'Brien, Gastelum, Soriano, Stanek, Bruihl, Hjerpe and Graceffo as your long man. If not worked to death and being cheap thats not a bad group.

Like I say there will be some help coming but as a base to start from and for the cost not bad.
I'm not so sure about a couple of those guys. Stanek has been up and down, and Soriano has been leaking oil of late.
In Sirianos case its overuse.

Stanek I believe is the highest paid so yeah he could the man out but I can live with him as a 4th 5th type option.
TimTheTechies
Forum User
Posts: 226
Joined: 20 May 2026 10:20 am

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by TimTheTechies »

Glad that he is doing well . That said, he needs to improve his fastball(45-50 rated) to set up his changeup ( 70 rated)
rockondlouie
Forum User
Posts: 19271
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:41 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by rockondlouie »

scoutyjones2 wrote: 27 Aug 2026 09:08 am
sikeston bulldog2 wrote: 27 Aug 2026 09:00 am
rockondlouie wrote: 27 Aug 2026 08:55 am Last 8 GP
9 1/3 IP
1 ER (when Oli tried to have him go two innings, not a bad idea)
0.96 ERA
-0.45 FiP 8O
4 Hits
1 BB
18 STRIKEOUTS! D A M N


This kid has really settled in after getting adjusted to MLB.

That strikeout total lately is M. Miller like! 8O

Could he be the future closer?
So he went from a gas can to a closer. How good is he.
That's why you give these players run. Not just knee jerk, instant gratification/disdain.

Need to see about 80 games worth of consistent batting for hitters and a half year to a full years starts for starting pitching. Relievers vaey. It's rare to find consistency. Your failed starters should be able to get 3 batters out and fill in for relievers or they don't belong in baseball.
Soooo right scouty

I was sending him back to Memphis after his first 10 GP (6.30 ERA/7.88 FiP)...I was wrong.
Galatians221jb1
Forum User
Posts: 2757
Joined: 30 Mar 2023 15:23 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by Galatians221jb1 »

rockondlouie wrote: 27 Aug 2026 10:56 am
scoutyjones2 wrote: 27 Aug 2026 09:08 am
sikeston bulldog2 wrote: 27 Aug 2026 09:00 am
rockondlouie wrote: 27 Aug 2026 08:55 am Last 8 GP
9 1/3 IP
1 ER (when Oli tried to have him go two innings, not a bad idea)
0.96 ERA
-0.45 FiP 8O
4 Hits
1 BB
18 STRIKEOUTS! D A M N


This kid has really settled in after getting adjusted to MLB.

That strikeout total lately is M. Miller like! 8O

Could he be the future closer?
So he went from a gas can to a closer. How good is he.
That's why you give these players run. Not just knee jerk, instant gratification/disdain.

Need to see about 80 games worth of consistent batting for hitters and a half year to a full years starts for starting pitching. Relievers vaey. It's rare to find consistency. Your failed starters should be able to get 3 batters out and fill in for relievers or they don't belong in baseball.
Soooo right scouty

I was sending him back to Memphis after his first 10 GP (6.30 ERA/7.88 FiP)...I was wrong.
Me too. I posted an early season video of him just dominating. Then I posted after he came up that he doesn't have MLB control. He didn't. He seems to have it now. We have great arms in the bullpen but erratic control issues. Most overthrow. Gastelum seems to be settling in. Glad to be wrong.
rockondlouie
Forum User
Posts: 19271
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:41 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by rockondlouie »

Galatians221jb1 wrote: 27 Aug 2026 11:05 am
rockondlouie wrote: 27 Aug 2026 10:56 am
scoutyjones2 wrote: 27 Aug 2026 09:08 am
sikeston bulldog2 wrote: 27 Aug 2026 09:00 am
rockondlouie wrote: 27 Aug 2026 08:55 am Last 8 GP
9 1/3 IP
1 ER (when Oli tried to have him go two innings, not a bad idea)
0.96 ERA
-0.45 FiP 8O
4 Hits
1 BB
18 STRIKEOUTS! D A M N


This kid has really settled in after getting adjusted to MLB.

That strikeout total lately is M. Miller like! 8O

Could he be the future closer?
So he went from a gas can to a closer. How good is he.
That's why you give these players run. Not just knee jerk, instant gratification/disdain.

Need to see about 80 games worth of consistent batting for hitters and a half year to a full years starts for starting pitching. Relievers vaey. It's rare to find consistency. Your failed starters should be able to get 3 batters out and fill in for relievers or they don't belong in baseball.
Soooo right scouty

I was sending him back to Memphis after his first 10 GP (6.30 ERA/7.88 FiP)...I was wrong.
Me too. I posted an early season video of him just dominating. Then I posted after he came up that he doesn't have MLB control. He didn't. He seems to have it now. We have great arms in the bullpen but erratic control issues. Most overthrow. Gastelum seems to be settling in. Glad to be wrong.
Ditto!

This kid looks like he could end up being special RP

But we both know how random RP's can be from season to season.........hopefully he's one of the good ones!
Clubmaker2
Forum User
Posts: 2296
Joined: 16 Apr 2021 16:53 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by Clubmaker2 »

Glad he has improved ...hopefully he just keeps getting better.
rockondlouie
Forum User
Posts: 19271
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:41 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by rockondlouie »

Another strong outing yesterday

updated

9 GP

10 2/3 IP
0.84 ERA
-0.38 FiP
4 Hits
20 KO's
1 BB
TheFantasyStud
Forum User
Posts: 531
Joined: 27 May 2024 12:23 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by TheFantasyStud »

If Svanson could go back to a year ago. I successfull Gastelum could make next years pen awesome.

HJerpe
Graceffo
Gastelum
Svanson
Bruilh
O’Brien
Soriano


Wow, forgive me if I spelled any names wrong. Didn’t have time to spell check.
Ozziesfan41
Forum User
Posts: 12549
Joined: 23 May 2024 13:01 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by Ozziesfan41 »

TheFantasyStud wrote: 28 Aug 2026 09:30 am If Svanson could go back to a year ago. I successfull Gastelum could make next years pen awesome.

HJerpe
Graceffo
Gastelum
Svanson
Bruilh
O’Brien
Soriano


Wow, forgive me if I spelled any names wrong. Didn’t have time to spell check.
And if sandro Santana continues to dominate he will definitely be up at some point next season and he’s probably going to be the best of all of them
hugeCardfan
Forum User
Posts: 2579
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:42 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by hugeCardfan »

To become a ML pitcher he had to be allowed to fail first. His stuff is so good and his temperament is so solid that he will become a great bullpen pitcher IMO. As he hones his command, he will bring much mysery to ML lineups throughout MLB.
rockondlouie
Forum User
Posts: 19271
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:41 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by rockondlouie »

TheFantasyStud wrote: 28 Aug 2026 09:30 am If Svanson could go back to a year ago. I successfull Gastelum could make next years pen awesome.

HJerpe
Graceffo
Gastelum
Svanson
Bruilh
O’Brien
Soriano


Wow, forgive me if I spelled any names wrong. Didn’t have time to spell check.
Good call

I would also like to see C. Bloom sign a veteran former starter (maybe a year or so removed from a starting rotation---think S. Matz type) as his "long man"!
hmoss859
Forum User
Posts: 1653
Joined: 24 Mar 2025 23:30 pm

Re: L. Gastelum has been very impressive

Post by hmoss859 »

He was tipping FB and changeup with hands setup and grip in glove

Word travels fast

It’s been fixed