Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

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CorneliusWolfe
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:04 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:57 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:21 am There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.
The idea that a front office can formulaically draft its way to “42 fWAR” and hit on enough prospects, all within the same window, is not realistic. If winning baseball were purely linear, every team with a top-ranked farm system would win a WS.

Wins Above Replacement measures volume, not high-leverage execution or postseason resilience. Top prospects fail at alarming rates due to injuries and mechanical exposure. Young rosters lack leadership, especially with weak coaching.

Baseball is a game of human variance, not a deterministic simulation where inputs guarantee outputs.

Top prospects bust or stall frequently.
Buying established, predictable MLB production eliminates the guessing game. And I don’t mean as occasional mid-tier filler. Cardinals are going to have to spend - significantly - to win. They aren’t going to get 90% there with prospects.
Yes, they will have to spend significantly, at some point, to add a few, select, key FAs.

But that spending comes AFTER you have developed the core of young players that you need to build around. Only AFTER you have developed that core do you know what are the priority holes you have to fill. And you have to keep at acquiring and developing prospects until you get to that core of young players on your ML roster.

It's not just spending - it's timely, informed, and smart spending that will be necessary.
Before the recent stall, our 1-4 in the lineup was amongst the most productive in MLB. Our rotation has 3-5 solidified with McGreevy, Pallante, and Leahy. We have a closer near the top in saves and a great setup man in Soriano and another promising in in Graceffo. Gastelum has been taking his lumps but did earn his promotion. Baez is on his way along with Cintje and Liam Doyle. We have two young stars in JJ and Walker.

Is that not enough young talent to work with? If we keep waiting, the young talent we current have is going to be deep in arbitration and reaching free agency and will be lost. The time to shift to a winning mentality is this offseason. The stars will NEVER perfectly align. Keep waiting and making cherry picked metric based excuses and this team will continue to bottom feed.

Worst to first isn’t happening. Incremental success is more sensible. To think we’re just going to jump straight from non-playoff bottom feeder to WS winner is ridiculous.
mattmitchl44
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by mattmitchl44 »

CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:44 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:04 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:57 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:21 am There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.
The idea that a front office can formulaically draft its way to “42 fWAR” and hit on enough prospects, all within the same window, is not realistic. If winning baseball were purely linear, every team with a top-ranked farm system would win a WS.

Wins Above Replacement measures volume, not high-leverage execution or postseason resilience. Top prospects fail at alarming rates due to injuries and mechanical exposure. Young rosters lack leadership, especially with weak coaching.

Baseball is a game of human variance, not a deterministic simulation where inputs guarantee outputs.

Top prospects bust or stall frequently.
Buying established, predictable MLB production eliminates the guessing game. And I don’t mean as occasional mid-tier filler. Cardinals are going to have to spend - significantly - to win. They aren’t going to get 90% there with prospects.
Yes, they will have to spend significantly, at some point, to add a few, select, key FAs.

But that spending comes AFTER you have developed the core of young players that you need to build around. Only AFTER you have developed that core do you know what are the priority holes you have to fill. And you have to keep at acquiring and developing prospects until you get to that core of young players on your ML roster.

It's not just spending - it's timely, informed, and smart spending that will be necessary.
Before the recent stall, our 1-4 in the lineup was amongst the most productive in MLB. Our rotation has 3-5 solidified with McGreevy, Pallante, and Leahy. We have a closer near the top in saves and a great setup man in Soriano and another promising in in Graceffo. Gastelum has been taking his lumps but did earn his promotion. Baez is on his way along with Cintje and Liam Doyle. We have two young stars in JJ and Walker.

Is that not enough young talent to work with? If we keep waiting, the young talent we current have is going to be deep in arbitration and reaching free agency and will be lost. The time to shift to a winning mentality is this offseason. The stars will NEVER perfectly align. Keep waiting and making cherry picked metric based excuses and this team will continue to bottom feed.

Worst to first isn’t happening. Incremental success is more sensible. To think we’re just going to jump straight from non-playoff bottom feeder to WS winner is ridiculous.
No, it's not.

Just having a 1-4 in your lineup isn't enough.

And the Cardinals are, at least, having developed 1-2 young, front of rotation SPs short of being ready to compete.

They need to develop and get Doyle, Franklin, Cijinte, R. Rodriguez, Baez, etc. to the majors not just be "on the way."

And you have to keep the young talent you have developed (Wetherholt, etc.) from being "lost" by aggressively signing them to team friendly long term extensions so that you keep them through their prime seasons.

And, yes, it all takes time. Houston went through three 100+ loss seasons (2011-2013) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won. Atlanta went through three 90+ loss seasons (2015-2017) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won.

If Cardinals fans can't stand just being a sub-.500 team for two or three years, maybe they need to toughen up a bit like Astros and Braves fans.
Last edited by mattmitchl44 on 02 Aug 2026 11:03 am, edited 3 times in total.
ecleme22
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by ecleme22 »

Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:05 am
Talkin' Baseball wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:51 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:45 am Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team. :roll:
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
Out of those 5 pitchers, 3 were from Mo trades and I don't think 1 (ZT) was ever that highly rated.
Goldfan
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by Goldfan »

Where is this team if they just held onto WC and Gray?
Theres 43mil……and the possibilities of another 47mil somewhere on this field are over the top.
Gray
May
McGreevy
Pallante
Leahy
And possibly another #2

With Contreras and another 3-5 hitter in this lineup

I was pounding the table all offseason for months. This entire episode and journey now engrained into Cardinals Nation minds about Prospects Prospects is the only way…..was only to save BDW money. Everything detailed above would not have killed restocking Bloom Farm.
Winning could’ve been sustained with rebuilding Farm. What killed this org with Mo’s bad moves and allowing farm to go stale.…..not having higher payroll.
Goldfan
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by Goldfan »

ecleme22 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:00 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:05 am
Talkin' Baseball wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:51 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:45 am Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team. :roll:
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
Out of those 5 pitchers, 3 were from Mo trades and I don't think 1 (ZT) was ever that highly rated.
Nevertheless those names were pushed forward as the future……same as the HOPE now. You can see how fragile of a strategy that is.
mattmitchl44
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by mattmitchl44 »

Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:04 am Where is this team if they just held onto WC and Gray?
Still nowhere close to the talent level of the Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Brewers, etc. - and even further lacking in the prospects they got for trading those guys.
Goldfan
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by Goldfan »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:06 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:04 am Where is this team if they just held onto WC and Gray?
Still nowhere close to the talent level of the Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Brewers, etc. - and even further lacking in the prospects they got for trading those guys.
Plus another 45mil to spend???
TimTheTechies
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by TimTheTechies »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:52 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:44 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:04 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:57 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:21 am There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.
The idea that a front office can formulaically draft its way to “42 fWAR” and hit on enough prospects, all within the same window, is not realistic. If winning baseball were purely linear, every team with a top-ranked farm system would win a WS.

Wins Above Replacement measures volume, not high-leverage execution or postseason resilience. Top prospects fail at alarming rates due to injuries and mechanical exposure. Young rosters lack leadership, especially with weak coaching.

Baseball is a game of human variance, not a deterministic simulation where inputs guarantee outputs.

Top prospects bust or stall frequently.
Buying established, predictable MLB production eliminates the guessing game. And I don’t mean as occasional mid-tier filler. Cardinals are going to have to spend - significantly - to win. They aren’t going to get 90% there with prospects.
Yes, they will have to spend significantly, at some point, to add a few, select, key FAs.

But that spending comes AFTER you have developed the core of young players that you need to build around. Only AFTER you have developed that core do you know what are the priority holes you have to fill. And you have to keep at acquiring and developing prospects until you get to that core of young players on your ML roster.

It's not just spending - it's timely, informed, and smart spending that will be necessary.
Before the recent stall, our 1-4 in the lineup was amongst the most productive in MLB. Our rotation has 3-5 solidified with McGreevy, Pallante, and Leahy. We have a closer near the top in saves and a great setup man in Soriano and another promising in in Graceffo. Gastelum has been taking his lumps but did earn his promotion. Baez is on his way along with Cintje and Liam Doyle. We have two young stars in JJ and Walker.

Is that not enough young talent to work with? If we keep waiting, the young talent we current have is going to be deep in arbitration and reaching free agency and will be lost. The time to shift to a winning mentality is this offseason. The stars will NEVER perfectly align. Keep waiting and making cherry picked metric based excuses and this team will continue to bottom feed.

Worst to first isn’t happening. Incremental success is more sensible. To think we’re just going to jump straight from non-playoff bottom feeder to WS winner is ridiculous.
No, it's not.

Just having a 1-4 in your lineup isn't enough.

And the Cardinals are, at least, having developed 1-2 young, front of rotation SPs short of being ready to compete.

They need to develop and get Doyle, Franklin, Cijinte, R. Rodriguez, Baez, etc. to the majors not just be "on the way."

And you have to keep the young talent you have developed (Wetherholt, etc.) from being "lost" by aggressively signing them to team friendly long term extensions so that you keep them through their prime seasons.

And, yes, it all takes time. Houston went through three 100+ loss seasons (2011-2013) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won. Atlanta went through three 90+ loss seasons (2015-2017) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won.

If Cardinals fans can't stand just being a sub-.500 team for two or three years, maybe they need to toughen up a bit like Astros and Braves fans.
Well said
mattmitchl44
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by mattmitchl44 »

Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:05 am
ecleme22 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:00 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:05 am
Talkin' Baseball wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:51 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:45 am Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team. :roll:
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
Out of those 5 pitchers, 3 were from Mo trades and I don't think 1 (ZT) was ever that highly rated.
Nevertheless those names were pushed forward as the future……same as the HOPE now. You can see how fragile of a strategy that is.
It's no news flash that the Cardinals organization has to do a better job of, and invest more in, evaluating players and developing them than they did for most of the last decade.

That's the whole point of rebuilding this organization.
ecleme22
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by ecleme22 »

Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:05 am
ecleme22 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:00 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:05 am
Talkin' Baseball wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:51 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:45 am Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team. :roll:
Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?
Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….
Out of those 5 pitchers, 3 were from Mo trades and I don't think 1 (ZT) was ever that highly rated.
Nevertheless those names were pushed forward as the future……same as the HOPE now. You can see how fragile of a strategy that is.
Your criticism should be with the architect.
mattmitchl44
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by mattmitchl44 »

Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:07 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:06 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:04 am Where is this team if they just held onto WC and Gray?
Still nowhere close to the talent level of the Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Brewers, etc. - and even further lacking in the prospects they got for trading those guys.
Plus another 45mil to spend???
Still nowhere close - and those teams are all going to add even more talent (like the Dodgers trading for Skubal) in next couple of days.
CorneliusWolfe
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:52 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:44 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:04 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:57 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:21 am There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.
The idea that a front office can formulaically draft its way to “42 fWAR” and hit on enough prospects, all within the same window, is not realistic. If winning baseball were purely linear, every team with a top-ranked farm system would win a WS.

Wins Above Replacement measures volume, not high-leverage execution or postseason resilience. Top prospects fail at alarming rates due to injuries and mechanical exposure. Young rosters lack leadership, especially with weak coaching.

Baseball is a game of human variance, not a deterministic simulation where inputs guarantee outputs.

Top prospects bust or stall frequently.
Buying established, predictable MLB production eliminates the guessing game. And I don’t mean as occasional mid-tier filler. Cardinals are going to have to spend - significantly - to win. They aren’t going to get 90% there with prospects.
Yes, they will have to spend significantly, at some point, to add a few, select, key FAs.

But that spending comes AFTER you have developed the core of young players that you need to build around. Only AFTER you have developed that core do you know what are the priority holes you have to fill. And you have to keep at acquiring and developing prospects until you get to that core of young players on your ML roster.

It's not just spending - it's timely, informed, and smart spending that will be necessary.
Before the recent stall, our 1-4 in the lineup was amongst the most productive in MLB. Our rotation has 3-5 solidified with McGreevy, Pallante, and Leahy. We have a closer near the top in saves and a great setup man in Soriano and another promising in in Graceffo. Gastelum has been taking his lumps but did earn his promotion. Baez is on his way along with Cintje and Liam Doyle. We have two young stars in JJ and Walker.

Is that not enough young talent to work with? If we keep waiting, the young talent we current have is going to be deep in arbitration and reaching free agency and will be lost. The time to shift to a winning mentality is this offseason. The stars will NEVER perfectly align. Keep waiting and making cherry picked metric based excuses and this team will continue to bottom feed.

Worst to first isn’t happening. Incremental success is more sensible. To think we’re just going to jump straight from non-playoff bottom feeder to WS winner is ridiculous.
No, it's not.

Just having a 1-4 in your lineup isn't enough.

And the Cardinals are, at least, having developed 1-2 young, front of rotation SPs short of being ready to compete.

They need to develop and get Doyle, Franklin, Cijinte, R. Rodriguez, Baez, etc. to the majors not just be "on the way."

And you have to keep the young talent you have developed (Wetherholt, etc.) from being "lost" by aggressively signing them to team friendly long term extensions so that you keep them through their prime seasons.

And, yes, it all takes time. Houston went through three 100+ loss seasons (2011-2013) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won. Atlanta went through three 90+ loss seasons (2015-2017) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won.

If Cardinals fans can stand just being a sub-.500 team for two or three years, maybe they need to toughen up a bit like Astros and Braves fans.
And you think all of this is going to happen all within the same timeframe? Why can’t we sign a good starter as we wait for the others? Quite
possible both Doyle and Cintje fail, or at least don’t live up to FOTR standard. What then? Back at square one.

Why can’t we buy a bat or two? Maybe a top tier and a mid tier? No one will stop Baez or Raniel from carving out a role if they force the issue. We could always trade someone away if there’s that bad of a logjam. If Bloom’s developmental system is so magical, let them bask in its glory another year to ensure success and less growing pains. You act like we have nothing right now. If that’s the case, the plan has already proven to be completely ineffective.

You must really think Bloom is a genius and knows something everyone else doesn’t.
mattmitchl44
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by mattmitchl44 »

CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:10 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:52 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:44 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:04 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:57 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:21 am There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.
The idea that a front office can formulaically draft its way to “42 fWAR” and hit on enough prospects, all within the same window, is not realistic. If winning baseball were purely linear, every team with a top-ranked farm system would win a WS.

Wins Above Replacement measures volume, not high-leverage execution or postseason resilience. Top prospects fail at alarming rates due to injuries and mechanical exposure. Young rosters lack leadership, especially with weak coaching.

Baseball is a game of human variance, not a deterministic simulation where inputs guarantee outputs.

Top prospects bust or stall frequently.
Buying established, predictable MLB production eliminates the guessing game. And I don’t mean as occasional mid-tier filler. Cardinals are going to have to spend - significantly - to win. They aren’t going to get 90% there with prospects.
Yes, they will have to spend significantly, at some point, to add a few, select, key FAs.

But that spending comes AFTER you have developed the core of young players that you need to build around. Only AFTER you have developed that core do you know what are the priority holes you have to fill. And you have to keep at acquiring and developing prospects until you get to that core of young players on your ML roster.

It's not just spending - it's timely, informed, and smart spending that will be necessary.
Before the recent stall, our 1-4 in the lineup was amongst the most productive in MLB. Our rotation has 3-5 solidified with McGreevy, Pallante, and Leahy. We have a closer near the top in saves and a great setup man in Soriano and another promising in in Graceffo. Gastelum has been taking his lumps but did earn his promotion. Baez is on his way along with Cintje and Liam Doyle. We have two young stars in JJ and Walker.

Is that not enough young talent to work with? If we keep waiting, the young talent we current have is going to be deep in arbitration and reaching free agency and will be lost. The time to shift to a winning mentality is this offseason. The stars will NEVER perfectly align. Keep waiting and making cherry picked metric based excuses and this team will continue to bottom feed.

Worst to first isn’t happening. Incremental success is more sensible. To think we’re just going to jump straight from non-playoff bottom feeder to WS winner is ridiculous.
No, it's not.

Just having a 1-4 in your lineup isn't enough.

And the Cardinals are, at least, having developed 1-2 young, front of rotation SPs short of being ready to compete.

They need to develop and get Doyle, Franklin, Cijinte, R. Rodriguez, Baez, etc. to the majors not just be "on the way."

And you have to keep the young talent you have developed (Wetherholt, etc.) from being "lost" by aggressively signing them to team friendly long term extensions so that you keep them through their prime seasons.

And, yes, it all takes time. Houston went through three 100+ loss seasons (2011-2013) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won. Atlanta went through three 90+ loss seasons (2015-2017) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won.

If Cardinals fans can stand just being a sub-.500 team for two or three years, maybe they need to toughen up a bit like Astros and Braves fans.
And you think all of this is going to happen all within the same timeframe? Why can’t we sign a good starter as we wait for the others? Quite
possible both Doyle and Cintje fail, or at least don’t live up to FOTR standard. What then? Back at square one.

Why can’t we buy a bat or two? Maybe a top tier and a mid tier? No one will stop Baez or Raniel from carving out a role if they force the issue. We could always trade someone away if there’s that bad of a logjam. If Bloom’s developmental system is so magical, let them bask in its glory another year to ensure success and less growing pains. You act like we have nothing right now. If that’s the case, the plan has already proven to be completely ineffective.

You must really think Bloom is a genius and knows something everyone else doesn’t.
They don't have "nothing," but they are clearly far short still of having enough.

And, if you know you are far short of having enough, you don't go out now and add older, expensive veterans to it just to fall short - because that is how you end up with 2025 Nolan Arenado on your roster instead of 2021/2022 Nolan Arenado when you DO have enough and ARE ready to compete.

Keep the books clean of big contracts that will likely be bad in 3-4 years when you aren't ready to compete now anyway.
scoutyjones2
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by scoutyjones2 »

Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:45 am Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team. :roll:
Only around 7% of MiLB play one game in the bigs.

You're one slow "witted" poster
ecleme22
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by ecleme22 »

CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:10 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:52 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:44 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 10:04 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:57 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 09:21 am There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.
The idea that a front office can formulaically draft its way to “42 fWAR” and hit on enough prospects, all within the same window, is not realistic. If winning baseball were purely linear, every team with a top-ranked farm system would win a WS.

Wins Above Replacement measures volume, not high-leverage execution or postseason resilience. Top prospects fail at alarming rates due to injuries and mechanical exposure. Young rosters lack leadership, especially with weak coaching.

Baseball is a game of human variance, not a deterministic simulation where inputs guarantee outputs.

Top prospects bust or stall frequently.
Buying established, predictable MLB production eliminates the guessing game. And I don’t mean as occasional mid-tier filler. Cardinals are going to have to spend - significantly - to win. They aren’t going to get 90% there with prospects.
Yes, they will have to spend significantly, at some point, to add a few, select, key FAs.

But that spending comes AFTER you have developed the core of young players that you need to build around. Only AFTER you have developed that core do you know what are the priority holes you have to fill. And you have to keep at acquiring and developing prospects until you get to that core of young players on your ML roster.

It's not just spending - it's timely, informed, and smart spending that will be necessary.
Before the recent stall, our 1-4 in the lineup was amongst the most productive in MLB. Our rotation has 3-5 solidified with McGreevy, Pallante, and Leahy. We have a closer near the top in saves and a great setup man in Soriano and another promising in in Graceffo. Gastelum has been taking his lumps but did earn his promotion. Baez is on his way along with Cintje and Liam Doyle. We have two young stars in JJ and Walker.

Is that not enough young talent to work with? If we keep waiting, the young talent we current have is going to be deep in arbitration and reaching free agency and will be lost. The time to shift to a winning mentality is this offseason. The stars will NEVER perfectly align. Keep waiting and making cherry picked metric based excuses and this team will continue to bottom feed.

Worst to first isn’t happening. Incremental success is more sensible. To think we’re just going to jump straight from non-playoff bottom feeder to WS winner is ridiculous.
No, it's not.

Just having a 1-4 in your lineup isn't enough.

And the Cardinals are, at least, having developed 1-2 young, front of rotation SPs short of being ready to compete.

They need to develop and get Doyle, Franklin, Cijinte, R. Rodriguez, Baez, etc. to the majors not just be "on the way."

And you have to keep the young talent you have developed (Wetherholt, etc.) from being "lost" by aggressively signing them to team friendly long term extensions so that you keep them through their prime seasons.

And, yes, it all takes time. Houston went through three 100+ loss seasons (2011-2013) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won. Atlanta went through three 90+ loss seasons (2015-2017) before they rebuilt, then started spending again, and won.

If Cardinals fans can stand just being a sub-.500 team for two or three years, maybe they need to toughen up a bit like Astros and Braves fans.
And you think all of this is going to happen all within the same timeframe? Why can’t we sign a good starter as we wait for the others? Quite
possible both Doyle and Cintje fail, or at least don’t live up to FOTR standard. What then? Back at square one.

Why can’t we buy a bat or two? Maybe a top tier and a mid tier? No one will stop Baez or Raniel from carving out a role if they force the issue. We could always trade someone away if there’s that bad of a logjam. If Bloom’s developmental system is so magical, let them bask in its glory another year to ensure success and less growing pains. You act like we have nothing right now. If that’s the case, the plan has already proven to be completely ineffective.

You must really think Bloom is a genius and knows something everyone else doesn’t.
The pipeline that's being created and the system Bloom has in place isn't solely dependent on Doyle and Cintje being studs.
Goldfan
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Re: Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

Post by Goldfan »

scoutyjones2 wrote: 02 Aug 2026 11:19 am
Goldfan wrote: 02 Aug 2026 08:45 am Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team. :roll:
Only around 7% of MiLB play one game in the bigs.

You're one slow "witted" poster
Also Scouty.
Yes, Bloom will create entire starting championship roster by 2028 with prospects not yet in organization. I think that’s been my point for 7-8 mnths
You just figuring that out.???