Prospects Will lead Bloom Farm to Promise Land

[Goldfan]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?

[Goldfan]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?

Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….

[Melville]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?

And a more precise statistical view - a few will deliver and the vast majority will fail.

[Melville]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?

Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….

You are correct.
Nothing wrong with Bloom's attempt to move past the TOXIC CULTURE of the Super Slo Mo years and focusing on adding potential talent by playing the numbers game with prospects.
But that alone will not succeed.
DeWitt will be forced to return spending to the $175+M annual payroll level at a minimum in order to become a true contender.

[Goldfan]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?

And a more precise statistical view - a few will deliver and the vast majority will fail.

And this aligns with what we’ve seen for decades…..a couple will come up from minors and be productive. To completely stop spending money and intentionally put winning on pause until most of a MLB roster is filled with championship caliber prospects is ridiculous.

[WeeVikes]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?

And a more precise statistical view - a few will deliver and the vast majority will fail.

Which is why having a lot of talented prospects is a not guaranteed but viable strategy. Sometimes quantity has a quality all its own.

[WeeVikes]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?

And a more precise statistical view - a few will deliver and the vast majority will fail.

And this aligns with what we’ve seen for decades…..a couple will come up from minors and be productive. To completely stop spending money and intentionally put winning on pause until most of a MLB roster is filled with championship caliber prospects is ridiculous.

Let me add a caveat to that.

A team absolutely has to add talent via the minors, trades, and free agency. They have to have all three. That said, I don’t think an organization will get very far if one of the three legs of the stool is broken.

The Cardinals seem to have decided the self-development portion was broken and needed a major overhaul, to the point they were willing to, hopefully temporarily, “Rob from Peter to pay Paul”. And I don’t mean just acquiring prospects, but overhauling how they evaluate and train them. If they can’t develop their own players they will also be handicapped when making trades as they’ll be at a disadvantage when making offers, and if they don’t have some measure of cost control/certainty, they will struggle to compete in free agency.

That’s how I see it, anyway.

[mattmitchl44]

There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.

[Goldfan]

There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.

Would 90mil this season allow the team to compete?? Yes…..and still hoard prospects just as needing to spend $$will be required in whatever year they decide to compete

[CorneliusWolfe]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?

Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….

You are correct.
Nothing wrong with Bloom's attempt to move past the TOXIC CULTURE of the Super Slo Mo years and focusing on adding potential talent by playing the numbers game with prospects.
But that alone will not succeed.
DeWitt will be forced to return spending to the $175+M annual payroll level at a minimum in order to become a true contender.

That $175+M seems to be around the starting point being discussed for the salary floor, so ownership is going to have to do better and land closer to the cap, wherever it ends up.

Shouldn’t have needed a floor but cheap owners who don’t care about winning brought it upon themselves. Now even the price of low-hanging fruit is going to skyrocket.

I expect the Cardinals to sit right at the floor and keep selling us on their magical draft and development promises….where our scouts see things other just can’t, and our secret labs make our prospect failure rates plummet while everyone else continues with historical trends.

[mattmitchl44]

There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.

Would 90mil this season allow the team to compete?? Yes…..and still hoard prospects just as needing to spend $$will be required in whatever year they decide to compete

The young core of this team isn't yet strong enough to compete with the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, etc. - even if you added another 9-10 fWAR for your hypothetical $90 million.

Further, when you try to spend $90 million for this year, that will almost certainly entail signing guys in their 30s to $20, $25, $30 million AAV contracts for 4, 5, etc. years. And those guys will likely be declining in 3 or 4 years when you are ready to compete. For example, when you are ready to compete again, you want to acquire 2021/2022 Nolan Arenado, not be holding 2025 Nolan Arenado.

The problem isn't the $90 million this year - it's the $90 million you've also spent in 2028, 2029, etc. on players that won't be that good then.

[CorneliusWolfe]

There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.

The idea that a front office can formulaically draft its way to “42 fWAR” and hit on enough prospects, all within the same window, is not realistic. If winning baseball were purely linear, every team with a top-ranked farm system would win a WS.

Wins Above Replacement measures volume, not high-leverage execution or postseason resilience. Top prospects fail at alarming rates due to injuries and mechanical exposure. Young rosters lack leadership, especially with weak coaching.

Baseball is a game of human variance, not a deterministic simulation where inputs guarantee outputs.

Top prospects bust or stall frequently. Buying established, predictable MLB production eliminates the guessing game. And I don’t mean as occasional mid-tier filler. Cardinals are going to have to spend - significantly - to win. They aren’t going to get 90% there with prospects.

[Cardinals4Life]

Tenk Hence…..DFA
This is the rish of solely relying on your prospects to field a competitive MLB team.

Just a couple short years ago this young fella was THE #2 guy in the org…..today DFA’d
Flip of the coin…..either ALL the great prospects could make it to the bigs or All could fail. No one knows but that doesnt stop the enlightened here from claiming a ‘28 WS team.

Or perhaps a more nuanced view- some will deliver and some will fail?

Thompson
Hence
Rom
Roby
Libby
Suppose theres a chance…..recent history isn’t on your side. Neither is the fact that in the Cards modern history of baseball no competitive/championship team has been built in the manner this Ownership/FO is broadcasting to the world.
But theres always a chance a unicorn may appear in the dugout or monkey’s fly out of BDW backside…….

You are correct.
Nothing wrong with Bloom's attempt to move past the TOXIC CULTURE of the Super Slo Mo years and focusing on adding potential talent by playing the numbers game with prospects.
But that alone will not succeed.
DeWitt will be forced to return spending to the $175+M annual payroll level at a minimum in order to become a true contender.

Will he?

[mattmitchl44]

There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.

The idea that a front office can formulaically draft its way to “42 fWAR” and hit on enough prospects, all within the same window, is not realistic. If winning baseball were purely linear, every team with a top-ranked farm system would win a WS.

Wins Above Replacement measures volume, not high-leverage execution or postseason resilience. Top prospects fail at alarming rates due to injuries and mechanical exposure. Young rosters lack leadership, especially with weak coaching.

Baseball is a game of human variance, not a deterministic simulation where inputs guarantee outputs.

Top prospects bust or stall frequently.
Buying established, predictable MLB production eliminates the guessing game. And I don’t mean as occasional mid-tier filler. Cardinals are going to have to spend - significantly - to win. They aren’t going to get 90% there with prospects.

Yes, they will have to spend significantly, at some point, to add a few, select, key FAs.

But that spending comes AFTER you have developed the core of young players that you need to build around. Only AFTER you have developed that core do you know what are the priority holes you have to fill. And you have to keep at acquiring and developing prospects until you get to that core of young players on your ML roster.

It's not just spending - it's timely, informed, and smart spending that will be necessary.

[bccardsfan]

There is no viable option other than to have a strong farm system that develops a lot of talented prospects.

For example, if you want just a 90 win team, you need about 42 fWAR in talent.

The typical values on the FA market for fWAR are $8-$10 million per fWAR.

So if you had to buy all of your 42 fWAR from FAs, your payroll would be in the range of $336-$420 million.

Since the Cardinals have typically had payrolls in the $170, $180 million range - obviously they need a lot of less-than-full-market-value players, who come from the farm system to have 90 win, 92 win, 95 win, etc. rosters.

The idea that a front office can formulaically draft its way to “42 fWAR” and hit on enough prospects, all within the same window, is not realistic. If winning baseball were purely linear, every team with a top-ranked farm system would win a WS.

Wins Above Replacement measures volume, not high-leverage execution or postseason resilience. Top prospects fail at alarming rates due to injuries and mechanical exposure. Young rosters lack leadership, especially with weak coaching.

Baseball is a game of human variance, not a deterministic simulation where inputs guarantee outputs.

Top prospects bust or stall frequently.
Buying established, predictable MLB production eliminates the guessing game. And I don’t mean as occasional mid-tier filler. Cardinals are going to have to spend - significantly - to win. They aren’t going to get 90% there with prospects.

Yes, they will have to spend significantly, at some point, to add a few, select, key FAs.

But that spending comes AFTER you have developed the core of young players that you need to build around. Only AFTER you have developed that core do you know what are the priority holes you have to fill. And you have to keep at acquiring and developing prospects until you get to that core of young players on your ML roster.

It's not just spending - it's timely, informed, and smart spending that will be necessary.

I agree, and when the time is right I want a really good manager and a really good pitching coach.