Skenes Kinda Sucks

[ronnie76]

I found this on Twitter.... So take it for what it is.

"98+ MPH pitches thrown by Paul Skenes in each of his 78 career big league starts:

32, 38 34, 30, 46, 42, 32, 33, 21, 32, 21, 44, 22, 23, 14, 24, 30, 33, 40, 35, 31, 21, 11, 19, 26, 12, 29, 21, 25, 10, 22, 17, 26, 35, 27, 35, 29, 34, 29, 32, 40, 28, 30, 30, 25, 49, 35, 26, 27, 27, 35, 37, 7, 22, 17, 7, 15, 0, 11, 3, 20, 0, 9, 1, 7, 2, 8, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0"

That sure looks like arm issue/fatigue of some sort

Whoa! Definitely looks like a physical problem.

[RamFan08NY]

4 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks and 2 home runs against the Reds. Something isn't right with this guy.

Skenes pitched in the Reds bandbox of a stadium tonight. Pitchers get rocked there.

He has had a rough July. But a good season before that. Yes, the Cardinals have had his number.

I wouldn't say they have "his" number. He's 0-5 but 2.7 era vs cards. The Bucs dont score against the Cards when he pitches.

[RunSup]

4 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks and 2 home runs against the Reds. Something isn't right with this guy.

Skenes pitched in the Reds bandbox of a stadium tonight. Pitchers get rocked there.

He has had a rough July. But a good season before that. Yes, the Cardinals have had his number.

I wouldn't say they have "his" number. He's 0-5 but 2.7 era vs cards. The Bucs dont score against the Cards when he pitches.

That's Fair. The Cardinals don't score much angainst Skenes but have been able to beat them when he pitches. But the Pirate offense is coming strong these days.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Pirates waited too long to trade him.

I bet they could still get a haul for him. Still young and still projects as a FOTR starter. Could be battling a nagging minor injury. He’s been way too good to say he all of a sudden sucks. I’d take him in a heartbeat.

[NYCardsFan]

Trying to strike everyone out.

First 9 starts:
50 IP
25 H
7 BB
56 K
1.98 ERA
2.50 FIP

13 starts since (before today):
70.2 IP
75 H
21 BB
93 K
4.84 ERA
2.86 FIP

A lot of bad luck in there with event sequencing, no doubt.

First 9 starts: .183 BABIP-against; 74.8% LOB%; 44.0% GB%; 8.2% HR/FB; 2.50 FIP; 2.95 xFIP
13 starts since (before today): .380 BABIP-against; 63.6% LOB%; 37.0% GB%; 9.5% HR/FB; 2.86 FIP; 3.17 xFIP

[Futuregm2]

4 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks and 2 home runs against the Reds. Something isn't right with this guy.

Skenes pitched in the Reds bandbox of a stadium tonight. Pitchers get rocked there.

He has had a rough July. But a good season before that. Yes, the Cardinals have had his number.

I wouldn't say they have "his" number. He's 0-5 but 2.7 era vs cards. The Bucs dont score against the Cards when he pitches.

That's Fair. The Cardinals don't score much angainst Skenes but have been able to beat them when he pitches. But the Pirate offense is coming strong these days.

Pirates are also 9-14 when he starts this season.

[Strummer Jones]

He is getting Livvy Done. I would be doing the same thing.

She’s cute, but man, wildly overrated at the same time.

I'm way past that age-range, but yeah, I don't get the drooling for Livvy. I'm more for dark hair and not rail thin.

[Adam2]

He is getting Livvy Done. I would be doing the same thing.

What does this mean?

You know what it means

[mattmitchl44]

Trying to strike everyone out.

First 9 starts:
50 IP
25 H
7 BB
56 K
1.98 ERA
2.50 FIP

13 starts since (before today):
70.2 IP
75 H
21 BB
93 K
4.84 ERA
2.86 FIP

A lot of bad luck in there with event sequencing, no doubt.

First 9 starts: .183 BABIP-against; 74.8% LOB%; 44.0% GB%; 8.2% HR/FB; 2.50 FIP; 2.95 xFIP
13 starts since (before today): .380 BABIP-against; 63.6% LOB%; 37.0% GB%; 9.5% HR/FB; 2.86 FIP; 3.17 xFIP

A .380 BABIP against is pretty unlucky.

[ronnie76]

Trying to strike everyone out.

First 9 starts:
50 IP
25 H
7 BB
56 K
1.98 ERA
2.50 FIP

13 starts since (before today):
70.2 IP
75 H
21 BB
93 K
4.84 ERA
2.86 FIP

A lot of bad luck in there with event sequencing, no doubt.

First 9 starts: .183 BABIP-against; 74.8% LOB%; 44.0% GB%; 8.2% HR/FB; 2.50 FIP; 2.95 xFIP
13 starts since (before today): .380 BABIP-against; 63.6% LOB%; 37.0% GB%; 9.5% HR/FB; 2.86 FIP; 3.17 xFIP

A .380 BABIP against is pretty unlucky.

Definitely, but is there something causing it to be that high besides just luck?

[Cardinals4Life]

He is getting Livvy Done. I would be doing the same thing.

What does this mean?

You know what it means

Actually didn't. Thought it was a typo until weevikes explained his play on words.

[mattmitchl44]

Trying to strike everyone out.

First 9 starts:
50 IP
25 H
7 BB
56 K
1.98 ERA
2.50 FIP

13 starts since (before today):
70.2 IP
75 H
21 BB
93 K
4.84 ERA
2.86 FIP

A lot of bad luck in there with event sequencing, no doubt.

First 9 starts: .183 BABIP-against; 74.8% LOB%; 44.0% GB%; 8.2% HR/FB; 2.50 FIP; 2.95 xFIP
13 starts since (before today): .380 BABIP-against; 63.6% LOB%; 37.0% GB%; 9.5% HR/FB; 2.86 FIP; 3.17 xFIP

A .380 BABIP against is pretty unlucky.

Definitely, but is there something causing it to be that high besides just luck?

Probably not.

MLB average BABIP against is .287.

Skenes might not be throwing as hard as he has, but there is no reason for his BABIP against to be almost .100 above league average over 13 games.

[ronnie76]

Trying to strike everyone out.

First 9 starts:
50 IP
25 H
7 BB
56 K
1.98 ERA
2.50 FIP

13 starts since (before today):
70.2 IP
75 H
21 BB
93 K
4.84 ERA
2.86 FIP

A lot of bad luck in there with event sequencing, no doubt.

First 9 starts: .183 BABIP-against; 74.8% LOB%; 44.0% GB%; 8.2% HR/FB; 2.50 FIP; 2.95 xFIP
13 starts since (before today): .380 BABIP-against; 63.6% LOB%; 37.0% GB%; 9.5% HR/FB; 2.86 FIP; 3.17 xFIP

A .380 BABIP against is pretty unlucky.

Definitely, but is there something causing it to be that high besides just luck?

Probably not.

MLB average BABIP against is .287.

Skenes might not be throwing as hard as he has, but there is no reason for his BABIP against to be almost .100 above league average over 13 games.

Yeah I wouldn't expect all of that to come from something other than luck. Do you have access to any pitch movement data? I'm wondering if the drop in velocity is also affecting some of the movement on his pitches. Historically, he's been able to limit good contact, but maybe now he's not as effective. So maybe .100-.150 points is from bad luck while the other .050-.100 is from less movement creating better contact for hitters facing him.

[mattmitchl44]

Trying to strike everyone out.

First 9 starts:
50 IP
25 H
7 BB
56 K
1.98 ERA
2.50 FIP

13 starts since (before today):
70.2 IP
75 H
21 BB
93 K
4.84 ERA
2.86 FIP

A lot of bad luck in there with event sequencing, no doubt.

First 9 starts: .183 BABIP-against; 74.8% LOB%; 44.0% GB%; 8.2% HR/FB; 2.50 FIP; 2.95 xFIP
13 starts since (before today): .380 BABIP-against; 63.6% LOB%; 37.0% GB%; 9.5% HR/FB; 2.86 FIP; 3.17 xFIP

A .380 BABIP against is pretty unlucky.

Definitely, but is there something causing it to be that high besides just luck?

Probably not.

MLB average BABIP against is .287.

Skenes might not be throwing as hard as he has, but there is no reason for his BABIP against to be almost .100 above league average over 13 games.

Yeah I wouldn't expect all of that to come from something other than luck. Do you have access to any pitch movement data? I'm wondering if the drop in velocity is also affecting some of the movement on his pitches. Historically, he's been able to limit good contact, but maybe now he's not as effective. So maybe .100-.150 points is from bad luck while the other .050-.100 is from less movement creating better contact for hitters facing him.

Well, his .183 BABIP against for the first nine games wasn't sustainable either.

He is .287 BABIP against for his career and .310 BABIP against for the entire 2026 season.

The most likely explanation is that he was inordinately lucky over his first nine games and inordinately unlucky over his last 13 games - leading to him being just slightly unlucky (.310 BABIP against for season vs. his/MLB average of .287) for the entire year.

[ronnie76]

Trying to strike everyone out.

First 9 starts:
50 IP
25 H
7 BB
56 K
1.98 ERA
2.50 FIP

13 starts since (before today):
70.2 IP
75 H
21 BB
93 K
4.84 ERA
2.86 FIP

A lot of bad luck in there with event sequencing, no doubt.

First 9 starts: .183 BABIP-against; 74.8% LOB%; 44.0% GB%; 8.2% HR/FB; 2.50 FIP; 2.95 xFIP
13 starts since (before today): .380 BABIP-against; 63.6% LOB%; 37.0% GB%; 9.5% HR/FB; 2.86 FIP; 3.17 xFIP

A .380 BABIP against is pretty unlucky.

Definitely, but is there something causing it to be that high besides just luck?

Probably not.

MLB average BABIP against is .287.

Skenes might not be throwing as hard as he has, but there is no reason for his BABIP against to be almost .100 above league average over 13 games.

Yeah I wouldn't expect all of that to come from something other than luck. Do you have access to any pitch movement data? I'm wondering if the drop in velocity is also affecting some of the movement on his pitches. Historically, he's been able to limit good contact, but maybe now he's not as effective. So maybe .100-.150 points is from bad luck while the other .050-.100 is from less movement creating better contact for hitters facing him.

Well, his .183 BABIP against for the first nine games wasn't sustainable either.

He is .287 BABIP against for his career and .310 BABIP against for the entire 2026 season.

The most likely explanation is that he was inordinately lucky over his first nine games and inordinately unlucky over his last 13 games - leading to him being just slightly unlucky (.310 BABIP against for season vs. his/MLB average of .287) for the entire year.

Ah, my fault. I misread his career BABIP against as .254 not .284.

[ronnie76]

Trying to strike everyone out.

First 9 starts:
50 IP
25 H
7 BB
56 K
1.98 ERA
2.50 FIP

13 starts since (before today):
70.2 IP
75 H
21 BB
93 K
4.84 ERA
2.86 FIP

A lot of bad luck in there with event sequencing, no doubt.

First 9 starts: .183 BABIP-against; 74.8% LOB%; 44.0% GB%; 8.2% HR/FB; 2.50 FIP; 2.95 xFIP
13 starts since (before today): .380 BABIP-against; 63.6% LOB%; 37.0% GB%; 9.5% HR/FB; 2.86 FIP; 3.17 xFIP

A .380 BABIP against is pretty unlucky.

Definitely, but is there something causing it to be that high besides just luck?

Probably not.

MLB average BABIP against is .287.

Skenes might not be throwing as hard as he has, but there is no reason for his BABIP against to be almost .100 above league average over 13 games.

Yeah I wouldn't expect all of that to come from something other than luck. Do you have access to any pitch movement data? I'm wondering if the drop in velocity is also affecting some of the movement on his pitches. Historically, he's been able to limit good contact, but maybe now he's not as effective. So maybe .100-.150 points is from bad luck while the other .050-.100 is from less movement creating better contact for hitters facing him.

Well, his .183 BABIP against for the first nine games wasn't sustainable either.

He is .287 BABIP against for his career and .310 BABIP against for the entire 2026 season.

The most likely explanation is that he was inordinately lucky over his first nine games and inordinately unlucky over his last 13 games - leading to him being just slightly unlucky (.310 BABIP against for season vs. his/MLB average of .287) for the entire year.

Ah, my fault. I misread his career BABIP against as .254 not .284.

He did change his arm slot though didn't he?