Yes, the Buch and Fowler contracts are aging poorly but a reversal on this list comes down to how McTavish and McMichael perform.
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NHL contract efficiency rankings 2026: Which teams spend their money most wisely?
By Dom Luszczyszyn
July 29, 2026
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/747131 ... ings-2026/
Every summer I take some time to dig into the NHL’s contract landscape. The best of the best, the worst of the worst and then the rest: A deep dive that ranks each team’s cap sheet.
That’s today’s goal: Assessing every player’s market value over the remainder of his contract, comparing it to his actual cap hit and then measuring the probability of the deal providing positive value. From that, I put all the pieces together to see which teams are spending their money best.
Over the last two years, the cap landscape has obviously shifted dramatically, leaving a lot of older contracts looking great and a lot of newer contracts looking less so. What that means is that a large majority of the league have more positive value than not on their books, but also that the teams with the most term left on legacy deals hold the most power. It’s not enough to get a “fair” deal, and having negative value on the books can put a team way behind.
All of this is ever-changing, of course — that’s why it’s an annual exercise to see how things shift around the league as players develop and decline. Using the same criteria as the best and worst contracts list, each player is judged based on total surplus value (more term means more time for value to compound, for better or worse) and the likelihood of the deal being good. Both are based on every player’s future trajectory over the life of his contract, which uses player comps to determine his likeliest path(s) forward.
How a player ages and how the cap increases are two of the biggest factors for this exercise. The current cap environment is an especially big factor when a 10 percent deal is worth $10.4 million next year, but could be worth as much as $15 million in seven or eight years. That means that valuations for younger players will look a lot better than some might expect if it’s over a lengthy term. Keep in mind that all the model estimates listed below — whether you agree or not — are based on an estimation of the future, not the past.
With all that being said, here’s how every team measures up.
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23. St. Louis Blues
Last season: 19th
The offer-sheet bros were extended this year, and the Blues got massive wins on both deals. Robert Thomas’ deal continues to age well, too, while Colton Parayko’s deal is finally on the right side of the ledger.
There’s still a little too much that’s questionable, though. We’ll see what Mason McTavish can do as a Blue, but extensions to Pavel Buchnevich and Cam Fowler have started rough, and I’m iffy on Connor McMichael’s new deal. The Ross Johnston signing this summer was also puzzling.
