MLB has a prospect development problem

[billybaseball]

I was trying to evaluate how this years draft class matched up to others because I'm of the belief that the college class this year was absolutely abysmal. Cholowsky is an absurdly bad 1 OA pick imo. But going back over the last decade, the lack of ML talent that's come from the 1st round was shocking. Especially top ten picks.I do think this will get better with College baseball getting way more advanced with coaching tech though. Why is baseball so unique in this? Every other sport is dominated by 1st round picks

[Youboughtit]

I was trying to evaluate how this years draft class matched up to others because I'm of the belief that the college class this year was absolutely abysmal. Cholowsky is an absurdly bad 1 OA pick imo. But going back over the last decade, the lack of ML talent that's come from the 1st round was shocking. Especially top ten picks.I do think this will get better with College baseball getting way more advanced with coaching tech though. Why is baseball so unique in this? Every other sport is dominated by 1st round picks

Because of so many rounds. The only thing that I would argue is velocity. The number of college pitcher throwing 98 plus is crazy. That is also a reason for dropping offensive numbers for college hitters

[3dender]

A few reasons I can think of:

1) Physical maturity matters as much in baseball as it does in football
2) The difference between college and professional is far wider than it is in any other sport
3) A vastly higher percentage of (the most talented) athletes go straight from HS to minor leagues, depleting the talent level of college
4) College coaches have no incentive to preserve athlete (especially pitcher) health
5) Pitcher velo/spin creates a much tougher matchup for prospect bats than a decade-plus ago.
6) Pitcher velo/spin also creats a much higher chance for catastrophic pitcher injury

[Youboughtit]

A few reasons I can think of:

1) Physical maturity matters as much in baseball as it does in football
2) The difference between college and professional is far wider than it is in any other sport
3) A vastly higher percentage of (the most talented) athletes go straight from HS to minor leagues, depleting the talent level of college
4) College coaches have no incentive to preserve athlete (especially pitcher) health
5) Pitcher velo/spin creates a much tougher matchup for prospect bats than a decade-plus ago.
6) Pitcher velo/spin also creats a much higher chance for catastrophic pitcher injury

NIL is changing this tho. Top HS players can get paid to play in college and develop instead of not getting paid for 4 years in minors.

[BrockFloodMaris]

The talent pool is shallow. Yes.

[Talkin' Baseball]

A few reasons I can think of:

1) Physical maturity matters as much in baseball as it does in football
2) The difference between college and professional is far wider than it is in any other sport
3) A vastly higher percentage of (the most talented) athletes go straight from HS to minor leagues, depleting the talent level of college
4) College coaches have no incentive to preserve athlete (especially pitcher) health
5) Pitcher velo/spin creates a much tougher matchup for prospect bats than a decade-plus ago.
6) Pitcher velo/spin also creats a much higher chance for catastrophic pitcher injury

NIL is changing this tho. Top HS players can get paid to play in college and develop instead of not getting paid for 4 years in minors.

It would be interesting to see info on the time it takes from HS graduation to major league debut, and quality of career for HS draftees vs. college draftees.

[billybaseball]

A few reasons I can think of:

1) Physical maturity matters as much in baseball as it does in football
2) The difference between college and professional is far wider than it is in any other sport
3) A vastly higher percentage of (the most talented) athletes go straight from HS to minor leagues, depleting the talent level of college
4) College coaches have no incentive to preserve athlete (especially pitcher) health
5) Pitcher velo/spin creates a much tougher matchup for prospect bats than a decade-plus ago.
6) Pitcher velo/spin also creats a much higher chance for catastrophic pitcher injury

NIL is changing this tho. Top HS players can get paid to play in college and develop instead of not getting paid for 4 years in minors.

It would be interesting to see info on the time it takes from HS graduation to major league debut, and quality of career for HS draftees vs. college draftees.

I have seen someone post something showing the best MLB players are either HS or international signings. I also think this is why MLB wants to stop allowing HS players being drafted

[Boiler Bird]

The dropoff in baseball’s quality goes much deeper. For over half a century, the majority of American boys were introduced to “the thinking man’s game” through Little League and the likes, from stickball in the streets to wood bats on dirt, learning rules and nuances as challenging as the game’s widely varied skills. Then came tee-ball and daddy-lob, setting back live hitting and pitching by years. Finally came the national explosion of kiddie soccer – wild coed herds mindlessly kicking the ball and each other -- ultimately producing merely average players at the highest levels of that watch-paint-dry sport but negatively impacting all levels of baseball with dramatically reduced development and talent pools. Try launching that angle. As one who’s seen it all, growing up watching Stan, Yogi, Mickey, Gibby and the real Lou, I just shake my head at what takes the field these days.

[Melville]

I was trying to evaluate how this years draft class matched up to others because I'm of the belief that the college class this year was absolutely abysmal. Cholowsky is an absurdly bad 1 OA pick imo. But going back over the last decade, the lack of ML talent that's come from the 1st round was shocking. Especially top ten picks.I do think this will get better with College baseball getting way more advanced with coaching tech though. Why is baseball so unique in this? Every other sport is dominated by 1st round picks

The hardest thing in all of professional sports (perhaps golf being 2nd) is to hit MLB pitching and for pitchers to master multiple pitches while maintaining arm health.
And that is why the attrition rate is higher
Simple as that

[Melville]

The dropoff in baseball’s quality goes much deeper. For over half a century, the majority of American boys were introduced to “the thinking man’s game” through Little League and the likes, from stickball in the streets to wood bats on dirt, learning rules and nuances as challenging as the game’s widely varied skills. Then came tee-ball and daddy-lob, setting back live hitting and pitching by years. Finally came the national explosion of kiddie soccer – wild coed herds mindlessly kicking the ball and each other -- ultimately producing merely average players at the highest levels of that watch-paint-dry sport but negatively impacting all levels of baseball with dramatically reduced development and talent pools. Try launching that angle. As one who’s seen it all, growing up watching Stan, Yogi, Mickey, Gibby and the real Lou, I just shake my head at what takes the field these days.

The population base which now supplies players to MLB is now roughly 6 times greater than it was in the 1950's and 1960's.
It has not been diluted in any way
Why then are fundamental skills diminished in some ways and yet improved in others?
MLB itself has done so intentionally.

[Youboughtit]

A few reasons I can think of:

1) Physical maturity matters as much in baseball as it does in football
2) The difference between college and professional is far wider than it is in any other sport
3) A vastly higher percentage of (the most talented) athletes go straight from HS to minor leagues, depleting the talent level of college
4) College coaches have no incentive to preserve athlete (especially pitcher) health
5) Pitcher velo/spin creates a much tougher matchup for prospect bats than a decade-plus ago.
6) Pitcher velo/spin also creats a much higher chance for catastrophic pitcher injury

NIL is changing this tho. Top HS players can get paid to play in college and develop instead of not getting paid for 4 years in minors.

It would be interesting to see info on the time it takes from HS graduation to major league debut, and quality of career for HS draftees vs. college draftees.

I have seen someone post something showing the best MLB players are either HS or international signings. I also think this is why MLB wants to stop allowing HS players being drafted

Historically yes but now with NIL more of the top HS players are choosing college so it is changing.

[Boiler Bird]

The dropoff in baseball’s quality goes much deeper. For over half a century, the majority of American boys were introduced to “the thinking man’s game” through Little League and the likes, from stickball in the streets to wood bats on dirt, learning rules and nuances as challenging as the game’s widely varied skills. Then came tee-ball and daddy-lob, setting back live hitting and pitching by years. Finally came the national explosion of kiddie soccer – wild coed herds mindlessly kicking the ball and each other -- ultimately producing merely average players at the highest levels of that watch-paint-dry sport but negatively impacting all levels of baseball with dramatically reduced development and talent pools. Try launching that angle. As one who’s seen it all, growing up watching Stan, Yogi, Mickey, Gibby and the real Lou, I just shake my head at what takes the field these days.

The population base which now supplies players to MLB is now roughly 6 times greater than it was in the 1950's and 1960's.
It has not been diluted in any way
Why then are fundamental skills diminished in some ways and yet improved in others?
MLB itself has done so intentionally.

In the last 60 years, while the population grew from 200 to 350 million, the majors grew from 20 to 30 teams. Essentially right in step. Essentially skilled players … not so much. Missing the George Kissells of the world.

[Melville]

The dropoff in baseball’s quality goes much deeper. For over half a century, the majority of American boys were introduced to “the thinking man’s game” through Little League and the likes, from stickball in the streets to wood bats on dirt, learning rules and nuances as challenging as the game’s widely varied skills. Then came tee-ball and daddy-lob, setting back live hitting and pitching by years. Finally came the national explosion of kiddie soccer – wild coed herds mindlessly kicking the ball and each other -- ultimately producing merely average players at the highest levels of that watch-paint-dry sport but negatively impacting all levels of baseball with dramatically reduced development and talent pools. Try launching that angle. As one who’s seen it all, growing up watching Stan, Yogi, Mickey, Gibby and the real Lou, I just shake my head at what takes the field these days.

The population base which now supplies players to MLB is now roughly 6 times greater than it was in the 1950's and 1960's.
It has not been diluted in any way
Why then are fundamental skills diminished in some ways and yet improved in others?
MLB itself has done so intentionally.

In the last 60 years, while the population grew from 200 to 350 million, the majors grew from 20 to 30 teams. Essentially right in step. Essentially skilled players … not so much. Missing the George Kissells of the world.

The MLB pipeline now comes from a population base of over a billion people.
With more players playing more games than American boys did 60, 70, or 80 years ago.
There has been zero dilution of the talent pool.
Why then are fundamental skills diminished in some ways and yet improved in others?
MLB itself has done so intentionally.

[ramfandan]

Regarding fundamentals changing over time, one aspect of that is the emphasis on metrics /stats that determine the salaries of baseball players.
Don't think there is much argument that in today's game, the maximum earning power for a big leauger is generated by the power bat he displays.
Home run hitters are highly coveted. If you have the ability to knock a ball over the fence scoring runs for a team, would you spend more time in the hitting cages working on your high tech launch angles for maximum carry trajectory etc. OR lessen the time a bit in the cages to go in the outfield , for example if you play an OF position and work on your defensive fundamentals .. angles to hit balls, first step jumps on balls , etc. Think we all know the answer .. When a contract is nearing extension , the power production will generate the bigger $$$ for the player.
So I feel the extra time on defense, base running nuances, etc. take a bat seat to the hitting. Even SS position , the most classic premier defensive position (where 50 years ago you could be a regular player with a great glove and no hit skills ) now has more emphasis to be more offensive minded.
Our own Masyn Winn, Gold Glove SS has been guilty at times swinging for the deep shots rather than going to RF to get more singles/doubles etc.
So due to above and other factors, some fundamentals suffer and for some players they are not as well rounded in all phases of the game as players from yesteryear IMO.

[The Nard]

Physical and mental maturity has a lot too do with it. You’re drafting kids with talent, and hopefully they have acquired baseball skills to go with it (fielding, baserunning, etc). But the body for these young-20s is still developing for several years. It takes a couple of years in the minors to really see the necessary advancement that maturity brings

So - a college player usually is not a finished product. You’re betting on the future.

[Boiler Bird]

The dropoff in baseball’s quality goes much deeper. For over half a century, the majority of American boys were introduced to “the thinking man’s game” through Little League and the likes, from stickball in the streets to wood bats on dirt, learning rules and nuances as challenging as the game’s widely varied skills. Then came tee-ball and daddy-lob, setting back live hitting and pitching by years. Finally came the national explosion of kiddie soccer – wild coed herds mindlessly kicking the ball and each other -- ultimately producing merely average players at the highest levels of that watch-paint-dry sport but negatively impacting all levels of baseball with dramatically reduced development and talent pools. Try launching that angle. As one who’s seen it all, growing up watching Stan, Yogi, Mickey, Gibby and the real Lou, I just shake my head at what takes the field these days.

The population base which now supplies players to MLB is now roughly 6 times greater than it was in the 1950's and 1960's.
It has not been diluted in any way
Why then are fundamental skills diminished in some ways and yet improved in others?
MLB itself has done so intentionally.

In the last 60 years, while the population grew from 200 to 350 million, the majors grew from 20 to 30 teams. Essentially right in step. Essentially skilled players … not so much. Missing the George Kissells of the world.

The MLB pipeline now comes from a population base of over a billion people.
With more players playing more games than American boys did 60, 70, or 80 years ago.
There has been zero dilution of the talent pool.
Why then are fundamental skills diminished in some ways and yet improved in others?
MLB itself has done so intentionally.

Wow. A billion people to draw from? But 999.9999 million can’t hit their weight?

Fact is, Little League Baseball now has 1.6 to 1.9 million boys enrolled, virtually no more than the 1.6 million boys who played in 1966, showing the dramatic decline in participation percentage from the overall population. Annual enrollment decline in Little League has been between 1.5 to 3 percent each year since the 1990s. Just look at all the vacated diamonds. And now it’s showing in MLB, which in turn aspires to attract fans with the attention spans of gnats while ignoring the values of ten-tool gurus such as George Kissell. Thus, the long-deposed national pastime has fallen even deeper on the charts.