McMichael Signs

[Chris2fer]

For reference, re: Neighbours:

2021–22 Season: 0.22 P/GP (2 points in 9 games)
2022–23 Season: 0.23 P/GP (10 points in 43 games)
2023–24 Season: 0.49 P/GP (38 points in 77 games)
2024–25 Season: 0.56 P/GP (46 points in 82 games)
2025–26 Season: 0.52 P/GP (36 points in 69 games)

Right around a half point per game the last three years.

Not trying to make a point, just sharing for discussion.

[Old_Goat]

Neighbours might not be in the long range plan.

Hard to say. I'm sure they have a team of bean counters charting future cap growth, salaries and how to construct a roster salary wise.

So far they done a decent job of shedding long-term salaries on declining players - Buch and Fowler are the only two left - but at some point they won't be able to sign them all. It's why their amatuer scouting department is so critical. You can probably afford to pay the top two lines, two pairs and starting goalie the reasonable going rate. Then you need a blend of entry level contracts and savy short term veteran deals to round out a roster.

For sure they're going to have some hard decisions coming with players like Jake, Mailoux and Dvorsky unless the cap explodes.

Everything you said is true.

The Blues top 6 is now set.

Holloway Thomas Snuggerud
McMichael McTavish Buch

We could see a Buch trade maybe (seems unlikely) but otherwise that's the top 6 for the foreseeable future.

Neighbours is now potentially (on his next contract) a very expensive 3LW in an organization that has a lot of bottom 6 left wing options, including Stenberg, a recent 1st rounder. If Stenberg shows out this year, Neighbours could be on the outside looking in moving forward. We shall see

I would not dismiss Jake so easily.

And McMichael will have to actually earn that spot, imo.

Neighbours' goals have gone from 27 to 21 to 15 the last three years. Granted he missed a few games last year.

He's not trending the right direction.

Could he break out and put up 50 points this year? Sure he could. That's why I said let's see what happens.

If he puts up 15 goals and 35 points again, he ain't getting 7MM a season like someone suggested above.

Jake's 82 game avg is 21g, 18A
McMichael's is 17g, 21A.

I'd expect if we re-sign Jake it's to a similar deal. Be interesting who these two get to play with. I'd like McMichael with Dvorsky to get some more speed paired with Dvo than Jake brings.

McMichael has 57 points in a season.

Neighbours topped out at 46.

.52 ppg
versus
.58 ppg

Truth is both of these players need come back years and play.

IMO it would be foolish to move Jake anytime soon.

And I believe the team sees Neighbours similarly as you.
I really am hoping that we settle our lines early in the season (barring injuries), stick with them. I think the consistency and familiarity with line-mates is key to increasing the chance for bounce backs. We have more depth, allowing for better balance. Loosen the reins and let them run.

I think more than anything switching to a 4 game training camp is going to be much bigger for this than anything else. I know only having 2 less games doesn't seem like a big deal, but that was 2 or 3 days of practice that they didn't have and it was also 2 more games of worry of your main guys getting injured so they sat. Now with only 4 and them essentially being in the same week, there will be way more focus on practice and establishing those lines, first 2 games focusing on eliminating the young guys who won't make the team, and the last 2 games preparing for the season.

I think it is going to be a huge improvement for teams all the way around.

Yes.

[27-12-16]

So the top six if McM and Mac play with Bush is about 37-38 million this season. How does that compare to other payrolls? The Ducks have one player making close to half that.

If Jake is paired with Dvo and one of the quicker wingers, will that line produce the numbers he needs to get in the 5-7 million dollar range? They would both have to take a sizable step forward to do so. Who will step up to make that a stable line as the 9th winger?

It is so nice to have a six legit top 6 on defense instead of relying on Tcker and Kessel to be the 6-7.

Training camp is going to be really interesting this year!

[StlFanInVA]

The signing of MckeeMike is a typical blues move to prove they made a good trade. Everything last management did was self dealing, and loyal Steen isn't gonna bust up a good thing. He too wants to work here for years producing wins in May and golf shots in June. Theres a formula and it starts with local knowledge being what they are told rather then what they see.

Hmm, I'm ok with the signing. Let's hear your proposal. What would you have done instead?

[smilinjoefission]

Only a modified NTC with a 3 team no trade list...Steen has already done better than Army, but still that's ALOT of money for a guy who only broken 20 goals once. Him and McT have ALOT to prove for what we paid for them.

[Cahokanut]

The signing of MckeeMike is a typical blues move to prove they made a good trade. Everything last management did was self dealing, and loyal Steen isn't gonna bust up a good thing. He too wants to work here for years producing wins in May and golf shots in June. Theres a formula and it starts with local knowledge being what they are told rather then what they see.

Hmm, I'm ok with the signing. Let's hear your proposal. What would you have done instead?

I would of gone to arbitration givimg me a look at how he fits in and what he can produce under our defensive first style. He hasn't proved himself more then a fourth liner on a good team. So this much for that long can become a real problem for the team when our top talents needs new contracts

[TBone]

The signing of MckeeMike is a typical blues move to prove they made a good trade. Everything last management did was self dealing, and loyal Steen isn't gonna bust up a good thing. He too wants to work here for years producing wins in May and golf shots in June. Theres a formula and it starts with local knowledge being what they are told rather then what they see.

Hmm, I'm ok with the signing. Let's hear your proposal. What would you have done instead?

I would of gone to arbitration givimg me a look at how he fits in and what he can produce under our defensive first style. He hasn't proved himself more then a fourth liner on a good team. So this much for that long can become a real problem for the team when our top talents needs new contracts

I agree with you to an extent. I would have done my utmost to see him play here before giving him this long-term contract. As it stands the contract was a year or two too long and 500K minimum per season too rich.

And you're right, the Blues have a history extending trade acquisitions too early before seeing them play for a full season - Scandella, Leddy, Fowler. They've also struggled misjudging fits in the free agent market with Krug, Brouwer and Clifford among others. It's been an ongoing flaw in pro personnel evaluation which probably needs upgrading. Hopefully McMichael breaks the trend.

[TruBlueFan_1970]

Only a modified NTC with a 3 team no trade list...Steen has already done better than Army, but still that's ALOT of money for a guy who only broken 20 goals once. Him and McT have ALOT to prove for what we paid for them.

I think this contract will age well for McM. Assuming he stays a middle 6 forward and contributes on the PK, which mirrors his use in Washington, the value is pretty close.

As an example, while different players, if you look at the last 3 years (when both essentially became regulars) for Cole Perfetti and McM, and 4 years for McTavish, the stats are similar.

- McTavish has averaged .60 points per game and had one season of 20+ goals and 50+ points.
- McM has averaged .56 points per game and had one season of 20+ goals and 50+ points.
- Perfetti has averaged .54 points per game and has not had a 20 goal season, but had one 50 point season.

McT is 23 years old at $7m for 6 years (Ana gave his contract)
McM is 25 years old at $6.75 for 6 years
Perfetti is 24 years old at $6.0m for 5 years

Seems like very similar production for similarly aged players, all drafted in the 1st round, with Perfetti and McT being top 10 picks. I’m willing to look forward a couple years when the cap goes up and these contracts for 50-55 point players will look good. And I truly think each of these guys will produce at that level. Just my two cents.

[blues2112]

Neighbours PPG the past three seasons
.49
.56
.52

Where's the "downward trend"?

People forget he's 23 and brings heart and grit, which are hard to quantify and Blues need more of.

Goals. Scored.

I never said get rid of Neighbours. I have however said he could be trade bait. And I've said he ain't getting some of contracts I see people throw around here. Someone just suggested 8x7 in another thread. No chance.

Hard to think any player on a "downward trend", in the organ-eye-zation's eyes, would be given an "A" on his jersey. He's 23. That's substantial.

[UMR-alum-05]

Neighbours PPG the past three seasons
.49
.56
.52

Where's the "downward trend"?

People forget he's 23 and brings heart and grit, which are hard to quantify and Blues need more of.

Goals. Scored.

I never said get rid of Neighbours. I have however said he could be trade bait. And I've said he ain't getting some of contracts I see people throw around here. Someone just suggested 8x7 in another thread. No chance.

Hard to think any player on a "downward trend", in the organ-eye-zation's eyes, would be given an "A" on his jersey. He's 23. That's substantial.

He got an A for 20 or so games after they traded Schenn. Wouldn't read too much into that.

[moose-and-squirrel]

Neighbours PPG the past three seasons
.49
.56
.52

Where's the "downward trend"?

People forget he's 23 and brings heart and grit, which are hard to quantify and Blues need more of.

Goals. Scored.

I never said get rid of Neighbours. I have however said he could be trade bait. And I've said he ain't getting some of contracts I see people throw around here. Someone just suggested 8x7 in another thread. No chance.

Hard to think any player on a "downward trend", in the organ-eye-zation's eyes, would be given an "A" on his jersey. He's 23. That's substantial.

He got an A for 20 or so games after they traded Schenn. Wouldn't read too much into that.

wouldn't dismiss it either

[onetimedit]

.
Think about this….next season the Blues will have 20+ million dollars to sign Hofer, Snugs and Neighbors.

I'm not sure $20 mil would do it.

What do we think each of these three get?

Snuggreud - $10 mil minimum
Neighbours - $7 mil
Hofer - $7 mil

I’m not paying Neighbours near that. We will see on Snuggy, team still has control for a while. Hofer is about right but maybe a little high

Agree w/ this and UMR-Alum's thoughts.

It all depends on what type of seasons these guys have. I don't see Snuggy hitting near Thomas' AAV unless he pots 35+ goals or 75+ points.

For some reason Blues fans drastically underestimate Jake Neighbours mostly because he had an uneven season last year, injury, death to some one close to him, never really got it going. Hes going to rebound and get paid 9th best goal scorer in the '20 draft and he'll resume climbing that ladder

27, 21, 15 goals. That's his goal totals.

It's a downward trend. I'm not underestimating him. The dude had 36 points last season. That's just reality. It's more a case of some people having Red Hudler syndrome than some people underestimating him far as I'm concerned.

If he rebounds and has a nice year, ok, let's talk about his future in the context of his performance and the rest of the team.

If he has 30 something points again, he ain't getting 7MM bucks. Id consider keeping him as the 3LW for a lot less than 7MM. But he ain't getting 7MM if he's a back to back 30 point player.

Like I said he had an uneven year last season i dont recall the details it wont matter much because with better center depth this year and better overall talent hes going to score goals thast a given.

Oct-Jan last year he had 13 goals (25 goal per 82 game pace) then he missed a ton of Feb and only scored twice in his last 27 games. Thats not really a downward pace for me its an unfortunate injury unsure of how the injury felt after returning. Had he remained healthy he would have made a run at most goals scored by a Blue last year, Thomas had 25....

I think it is fair to say that the whole team has been underutilized for years. Outside of Thomas, the Blues haven't had a good center in how long?
That has now been addressed. We may see the boys play to their full potential for the first time since maybe 2019! Plus we have some serious tough guys - no more Blues punching bags. Good centers + tough guys = boys playing up to strength.

[skilles]

.
Think about this….next season the Blues will have 20+ million dollars to sign Hofer, Snugs and Neighbors.

I'm not sure $20 mil would do it.

What do we think each of these three get?

Snuggreud - $10 mil minimum
Neighbours - $7 mil
Hofer - $7 mil

I’m not paying Neighbours near that. We will see on Snuggy, team still has control for a while. Hofer is about right but maybe a little high

Agree w/ this and UMR-Alum's thoughts.

It all depends on what type of seasons these guys have. I don't see Snuggy hitting near Thomas' AAV unless he pots 35+ goals or 75+ points.

For some reason Blues fans drastically underestimate Jake Neighbours mostly because he had an uneven season last year, injury, death to some one close to him, never really got it going. Hes going to rebound and get paid 9th best goal scorer in the '20 draft and he'll resume climbing that ladder

27, 21, 15 goals. That's his goal totals.

It's a downward trend. I'm not underestimating him. The dude had 36 points last season. That's just reality. It's more a case of some people having Red Hudler syndrome than some people underestimating him far as I'm concerned.

If he rebounds and has a nice year, ok, let's talk about his future in the context of his performance and the rest of the team.

If he has 30 something points again, he ain't getting 7MM bucks. Id consider keeping him as the 3LW for a lot less than 7MM. But he ain't getting 7MM if he's a back to back 30 point player.

Like I said he had an uneven year last season i dont recall the details it wont matter much because with better center depth this year and better overall talent hes going to score goals thast a given.

Oct-Jan last year he had 13 goals (25 goal per 82 game pace) then he missed a ton of Feb and only scored twice in his last 27 games. Thats not really a downward pace for me its an unfortunate injury unsure of how the injury felt after returning. Had he remained healthy he would have made a run at most goals scored by a Blue last year, Thomas had 25....

I think it is fair to say that the whole team has been underutilized for years. Outside of Thomas, the Blues haven't had a good center in how long?
That has now been addressed. We may see the boys play to their full potential for the first time since maybe 2019! Plus we have some serious tough guys - no more Blues punching bags. Good centers + tough guys = boys playing up to strength.

The Blues havn't had a solid #2 c dating all the way back to Brayden Schenn lol

[TAFKAP]

The signing of MckeeMike is a typical blues move to prove they made a good trade. Everything last management did was self dealing, and loyal Steen isn't gonna bust up a good thing. He too wants to work here for years producing wins in May and golf shots in June. Theres a formula and it starts with local knowledge being what they are told rather then what they see.

Hmm, I'm ok with the signing. Let's hear your proposal. What would you have done instead?

I would of gone to arbitration givimg me a look at how he fits in and what he can produce under our defensive first style. He hasn't proved himself more then a fourth liner on a good team. So this much for that long can become a real problem for the team when our top talents needs new contracts

I agree with you to an extent. I would have done my utmost to see him play here before giving him this long-term contract. As it stands the contract was a year or two too long and 500K minimum per season too rich.

And you're right, the Blues have a history extending trade acquisitions too early before seeing them play for a full season - Scandella, Leddy, Fowler. They've also struggled misjudging fits in the free agent market with Krug, Brouwer and Clifford among others. It's been an ongoing flaw in pro personnel evaluation which probably needs upgrading. Hopefully McMichael breaks the trend.

Man, I don't argue with your takes often, but, I respectfully disagree with most of what you got here. The Blues decided they wanted McMike, so they knew they couldn't have a judge set their budget and damage the relationship with the player. $500k is nothing in this cap environment and if it's too long, he only has trade protection against 3 teams. We have only let one RFA in team history get to a hearing, and he didn't play a minute for the Blues under the contract the judge awarded him, Joel Edmunson. Scandella's deal may have been too long, same with Leddy, but both were reliable partners for CP55 for several seasons each. Fowler is just starting his extension, can we wait to judge? Krug was a bad deal, it wasn't great to start and it only got worse. Every GM has one. Clifford I don't remember so he couldn't have been that awful. Troy Brouwer wasn't a UFA, he was traded in the Oshie deal. Had one year left on his contract, finished with 4 points fewer than the previous 2 years, scored the series winning goal against the Blackhawks in Game 7, on our way to the WCF. He had 8 goals during that run, certainly not a passenger. Signed with Calgary to be close to his ailing father and his play fell off a cliff. None of that affected us.

[wiscrev]

The signing of MckeeMike is a typical blues move to prove they made a good trade. Everything last management did was self dealing, and loyal Steen isn't gonna bust up a good thing. He too wants to work here for years producing wins in May and golf shots in June. Theres a formula and it starts with local knowledge being what they are told rather then what they see.

Hmm, I'm ok with the signing. Let's hear your proposal. What would you have done instead?

He has no clue!

[UMR-alum-05]

Consternation about the McMichael deal is dramatic overreaction in my view.

Blues got good term out of it. Trade protection after the first few years is extremely minimal.

Settle in and enjoy the ride here folks.

Some of you want to give Jake Neighbours 8x7 but are crying and wailing about 6x6.75 for McMichael.