new Salary cap blues?

[Russdv14]

This theory has worried me since the salary Cap limit has been raised dramatically. Then hearing about the 18 million dollar contract to Leo Carlsson sort of alarms me as a fan of our “small market” team. It seems like the unstable tv contract that I assume the Blues play for will be into play for the Blues total income. We have not made the playoffs in two of three years and supposedly that very much affects the bottom line. So I wonder if we’ll be able to compete in four or five years when our $6-8 million dollar contracts expire. I think with the new high salary cap -besides making it harder to compete.-I’m afraid we may lose the team in St. Louis. Do any of you financial gurus see it this way too? How deep can the pockets be if we don’t even make the playoffs more often? Unless we have a bunch of Rich fans and contributors I don’t know how long we can keep this afloat after four or five years if we want a winning team

[CheapSeat]

This theory has worried me since the salary Cap limit has been raised dramatically. Then hearing about the 18 million dollar contract to Leo Carlsson sort of alarms me as a fan of our “small market” team. It seems like the unstable tv contract that I assume the Blues play for will be into play for the Blues total income. We have not made the playoffs in two of three years and supposedly that very much affects the bottom line. So I wonder if we’ll be able to compete in four or five years when our $6-8 million dollar contracts expire. I think with the new high salary cap -besides making it harder to compete.-I’m afraid we may lose the team in St. Louis. Do any of you financial gurus see it this way too? How deep can the pockets be if we don’t even make the playoffs more often? Unless we have a bunch of Rich fans and contributors I don’t know how long we can keep this afloat after four or five years if we want a winning team

The team is not going anywhere. The ownership group is vested in St. Louis 100%.

Tom Stillman (Chairman and Governor)
Carolyn Kindle (CEO of St. Louis City SC and President of the Enterprise Mobility Foundation)
Jo Ann Taylor Kindle
James Kavanaugh
Donn Lux
Jerald Kent
Michael W. Riney
Tom Schlafly
James Cooper
Steve Maritz
Edward Potter
John and Christopher Danforth
Jim Johnson III
Scott McCuaig
John Ross, Jr.

Stillman has stated the team does not need to make the playoffs to make a profit.

[27-12-16]

The cap is tied to revenue amd the ownership is local and invested. I don't think there is anything to worry about...

[Russdv14]

So let’s say Thomas, Snuggerrud and Holloway (or name to be determined as a big Star) each become 100 point players the next 4 seasons and each of their contracts are up. Don’t fellows really think a small town market like St. Louis can offer such players these 12-18 million dollar contracts or will the Blues need to pay one and allow the other 2 to leave. Just seems like with payroll way up the coffers will run dry.

Unless the NHL is sharing the revenue a lot higher, i was projecting that other teams will have .$18 million dollar stars and that the Blues will need to sell off their best and make the winning teams even better. We and other low market teams would feed the better teams in big cities

[CheapSeat]

So let’s say Thomas, Snuggerrud and Holloway (or name to be determined as a big Star) each become 100 point players the next 4 seasons and each of their contracts are up. Don’t fellows really think a small town market like St. Louis can offer such players these 12-18 million dollar contracts or will the Blues need to pay one and allow the other 2 to leave. Just seems like with payroll way up the coffers will run dry.

Unless the NHL is sharing the revenue a lot higher, i was projecting that other teams will have .$18 million dollar stars and that the Blues will need to sell off their best and make the winning teams even better. We and other low market teams would feed the better teams in big cities

Tom Stillman has also operated at or near the upper limit of the cap during his term. If the cap goes up revenue goes up. The NHL seems to really like having a team in STL. They would not let other potential owners buy the team and move them. There are plenty of other things to worry about.

[TheJackBurton]

the Blues aren't going anywhere, we are way too valuable a market for the NHL.

Now the rising salary cap may very well become too much for some owners and some much bigger pocket owners may need to get in, but no the blues aren't going anywhere.

[Barksdale's People]

So let’s say Thomas, Snuggerrud and Holloway (or name to be determined as a big Star) each become 100 point players the next 4 seasons and each of their contracts are up. Don’t fellows really think a small town market like St. Louis can offer such players these 12-18 million dollar contracts or will the Blues need to pay one and allow the other 2 to leave. Just seems like with payroll way up the coffers will run dry.

Unless the NHL is sharing the revenue a lot higher, i was projecting that other teams will have .$18 million dollar stars and that the Blues will need to sell off their best and make the winning teams even better. We and other low market teams would feed the better teams in big cities

There are 4 instances of a team having 3 100 point players in a single season in NHL history. Can’t imagine the Blues trio is about to do this 4 years in a row. And in what world is the record breaking Blues trio you are worried about setting the league on fire simultaneously missing the playoffs every year and losing revenue as you originally stated?

Might as well be worried about flying pigs developing an affinity for attacking hockey players in the Midwest.

[tfriede2]

the Blues aren't going anywhere, we are way too valuable a market for the NHL.

Now the rising salary cap may very well become too much for some owners and some much bigger pocket owners may need to get in, but no the blues aren't going anywhere.

There’s multiple billionaires in the ownership group right now. Don’t get much bigger pocket than some who are already in the group. With that said, just because there are some billionaires doesn’t mean they’re going to throw their own money at the team, but the bigger aspect is that the entire group is committed to, and have roots in, St. Louis. They would never allow the team to be sold to an entity or other group if they believed there was any chance that such sale might lead to a move to another city. Agreed, nothing to worry about.

[UMR-alum-05]

Blues just need to keep drafting well.

People got themselves all excited by the Carlson offer sheet. Not every player is going to get 18MM.

[TheJackBurton]

the Blues aren't going anywhere, we are way too valuable a market for the NHL.

Now the rising salary cap may very well become too much for some owners and some much bigger pocket owners may need to get in, but no the blues aren't going anywhere.

There’s multiple billionaires in the ownership group right now. Don’t get much bigger pocket than some who are already in the group. With that said, just because there are some billionaires doesn’t mean they’re going to throw their own money at the team, but the bigger aspect is that the entire group is committed to, and have roots in, St. Louis. They would never allow the team to be sold to an entity or other group if they believed there was any chance that such sale might lead to a move to another city. Agreed, nothing to worry about.

oh without a doubt. These aren't the Saskatchewan days anymore. Viewership and ratings wise, we are a top 10 NHL market. They have no desire whatsoever to lose that, and really with the NFL having no team presence here the NHL knows they run this town (as long as the Cards aren't deep in the playoffs) October through April and in the playoffs.

We are about as guaranteed a market as there is. As far as the owners, yes we have WWT, Enterprise dollars, and other individual owners, but if the valuations keep rising you may see some of them sell off and cash out for a massive profit, so it would be if they can get replaced. I'm not worried about ownership per se, I've just always stated that we likely have a top amount that can be charged for seats and concessions before the everyday man and family is completely priced out and if the salary cap starts hitting the 130's and up that's probably it. I just think that the blues are probably in the 100-105 million range for salary cap to keep their costs in line for this area, and have the occasional 115 million dollar year if they need that one player to put them over the top.

[Army's Mom]

the Blues aren't going anywhere, we are way too valuable a market for the NHL.

Now the rising salary cap may very well become too much for some owners and some much bigger pocket owners may need to get in, but no the blues aren't going anywhere.

There’s multiple billionaires in the ownership group right now. Don’t get much bigger pocket than some who are already in the group. With that said, just because there are some billionaires doesn’t mean they’re going to throw their own money at the team, but the bigger aspect is that the entire group is committed to, and have roots in, St. Louis. They would never allow the team to be sold to an entity or other group if they believed there was any chance that such sale might lead to a move to another city. Agreed, nothing to worry about.

oh without a doubt. These aren't the Saskatchewan days anymore. Viewership and ratings wise, we are a top 10 NHL market. They have no desire whatsoever to lose that, and really with the NFL having no team presence here the NHL knows they run this town (as long as the Cards aren't deep in the playoffs) October through April and in the playoffs.

We are about as guaranteed a market as there is. As far as the owners, yes we have WWT, Enterprise dollars, and other individual owners, but if the valuations keep rising you may see some of them sell off and cash out for a massive profit, so it would be if they can get replaced. I'm not worried about ownership per se, I've just always stated that we likely have a top amount that can be charged for seats and concessions before the everyday man and family is completely priced out and if the salary cap starts hitting the 130's and up that's probably it. I just think that the blues are probably in the 100-105 million range for salary cap to keep their costs in line for this area, and have the occasional 115 million dollar year if they need that one player to put them over the top.

This.

The cap limits everyone's payroll, meaning wealthier teams have only so much they can spend poaching out players on max contracts. Our billionaire owners and steady viewership and gate means we should be able to compete under these conditions. As current owners sell for big gains, will our market have enough replacement owners to keep the local pride? Thats a bigger question, but one we're well positioned for today (we'd need half the ownership shares to be selling at once - we dont have a supermajority owner like Laurie or Checketts).

IF the OP is correct about the profitability risk as the csp rises, it wont manifest as talent flight IMO (since TOR or NYR are already presumably capped out), it will manifest in increased big market spending beyond (capped) player salaries:

Spending on data analysis (staff and tech) by big market teams that we cant afford to keep up with.

Spending on the best training facilities, nutritionists, chefs, and trainers.

Spending on prospect development (investing heavily in coaching, data analysis, and training at the development levels).

Spending on game day fan experiences.

These are all areas where TOR or NYR could create a competitve advantage over us we would never be able to compete with (on a dollar basis). Of course, there are diminishing returns the more you spend - so long as our owners aren't cutting corners we'll be fine.

Besides, there's nothing stopping TOR or NYR outspending us now, and its not like either of those teams have been especially forward thinking on this front.

Utah's owners get it, though. They're the ownership group I feel most "jealous" of.

But we're in excellent shape. Stillman is a HOF owner.

[TheJackBurton]

the Blues aren't going anywhere, we are way too valuable a market for the NHL.

Now the rising salary cap may very well become too much for some owners and some much bigger pocket owners may need to get in, but no the blues aren't going anywhere.

There’s multiple billionaires in the ownership group right now. Don’t get much bigger pocket than some who are already in the group. With that said, just because there are some billionaires doesn’t mean they’re going to throw their own money at the team, but the bigger aspect is that the entire group is committed to, and have roots in, St. Louis. They would never allow the team to be sold to an entity or other group if they believed there was any chance that such sale might lead to a move to another city. Agreed, nothing to worry about.

oh without a doubt. These aren't the Saskatchewan days anymore. Viewership and ratings wise, we are a top 10 NHL market. They have no desire whatsoever to lose that, and really with the NFL having no team presence here the NHL knows they run this town (as long as the Cards aren't deep in the playoffs) October through April and in the playoffs.

We are about as guaranteed a market as there is. As far as the owners, yes we have WWT, Enterprise dollars, and other individual owners, but if the valuations keep rising you may see some of them sell off and cash out for a massive profit, so it would be if they can get replaced. I'm not worried about ownership per se, I've just always stated that we likely have a top amount that can be charged for seats and concessions before the everyday man and family is completely priced out and if the salary cap starts hitting the 130's and up that's probably it. I just think that the blues are probably in the 100-105 million range for salary cap to keep their costs in line for this area, and have the occasional 115 million dollar year if they need that one player to put them over the top.

This.

The cap limits everyone's payroll, meaning wealthier teams have only so much they can spend poaching out players on max contracts. Our billionaire owners and steady viewership and gate means we should be able to compete under these conditions. As current owners sell for big gains, will our market have enough replacement owners to keep the local pride? Thats a bigger question, but one we're well positioned for today (we'd need half the ownership shares to be selling at once - we dont have a supermajority owner like Laurie or Checketts).

IF the OP is correct about the profitability risk as the csp rises, it wont manifest as talent flight IMO (since TOR or NYR are already presumably capped out), it will manifest in increased big market spending beyond (capped) player salaries:

Spending on data analysis (staff and tech) by big market teams that we cant afford to keep up with.

Spending on the best training facilities, nutritionists, chefs, and trainers.

Spending on prospect development (investing heavily in coaching, data analysis, and training at the development levels).

Spending on game day fan experiences.

These are all areas where TOR or NYR could create a competitve advantage over us we would never be able to compete with (on a dollar basis). Of course, there are diminishing returns the more you spend - so long as our owners aren't cutting corners we'll be fine.

Besides, there's nothing stopping TOR or NYR outspending us now, and its not like either of those teams have been especially forward thinking on this front.

Utah's owners get it, though. They're the ownership group I feel most "jealous" of.

But we're in excellent shape. Stillman is a HOF owner.

For an example of exactly what you are talking about, is the LA Dodgers. Even with all their success (and we know a lot of it is that they can outspend every team by hundreds of millions) they also have the best front office infrastructure because they can pay exorbitant amounts for those guys and keep them happy. That's how they can keep a top 10 farm system even though they've won 2 consecutive world series, been in 3 of the last 5 and being the best team record wise in many of those seasons.

[STL fan in MN]

This theory has worried me since the salary Cap limit has been raised dramatically. Then hearing about the 18 million dollar contract to Leo Carlsson sort of alarms me as a fan of our “small market” team. It seems like the unstable tv contract that I assume the Blues play for will be into play for the Blues total income. We have not made the playoffs in two of three years and supposedly that very much affects the bottom line. So I wonder if we’ll be able to compete in four or five years when our $6-8 million dollar contracts expire. I think with the new high salary cap -besides making it harder to compete.-I’m afraid we may lose the team in St. Louis. Do any of you financial gurus see it this way too? How deep can the pockets be if we don’t even make the playoffs more often? Unless we have a bunch of Rich fans and contributors I don’t know how long we can keep this afloat after four or five years if we want a winning team

Absolutely zero worry of them not being able to stay afloat. According to Forbes, Stillman and his group bought the Blues for $180M and it’s now worth $1.55B.

I do think a team like STL may have a hard time staying profitable year to year if the cap keeps rising. But the cap rises when revenues rise. It’s all tied together. And owners get 50% of revenue. And there’s revenue sharing for the teams at the bottom. The Blues have never received revenue sharing as far as I’m aware, at least not in the Stillman era, but that safety net is there when teams underperform a bit.

But the real money is made via team valuation. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the smaller secondary owners start cashing out and taking their big gains. But I think Stillman will be owner basically until he dies. The owners are sitting pretty with the way the CBA is set up. They’ve had basically cash printing machines since the 2005 CBA. Some teams are obviously more profitable than others but a team has to really screw up to become non-viable in today’s NHL.

[Army's Mom]

This theory has worried me since the salary Cap limit has been raised dramatically. Then hearing about the 18 million dollar contract to Leo Carlsson sort of alarms me as a fan of our “small market” team. It seems like the unstable tv contract that I assume the Blues play for will be into play for the Blues total income. We have not made the playoffs in two of three years and supposedly that very much affects the bottom line. So I wonder if we’ll be able to compete in four or five years when our $6-8 million dollar contracts expire. I think with the new high salary cap -besides making it harder to compete.-I’m afraid we may lose the team in St. Louis. Do any of you financial gurus see it this way too? How deep can the pockets be if we don’t even make the playoffs more often? Unless we have a bunch of Rich fans and contributors I don’t know how long we can keep this afloat after four or five years if we want a winning team

Absolutely zero worry of them not being able to stay afloat. According to Forbes, Stillman and his group bought the Blues for $180M and it’s now worth $1.55B.

I do think a team like STL may have a hard time staying profitable year to year if the cap keeps rising. But the cap rises when revenues rise. It’s all tied together. And owners get 50% of revenue. And there’s revenue sharing for the teams at the bottom. The Blues have never received revenue sharing as far as I’m aware, at least not in the Stillman era, but that safety net is there when teams underperform a bit.

But the real money is made via team valuation. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the smaller secondary owners start cashing out and taking their big gains. But I think Stillman will be owner basically until he dies. The owners are sitting pretty with the way the CBA is set up. They’ve had basically cash printing machines since the 2005 CBA. Some teams are obviously more profitable than others but a team has to really screw up to become non-viable in today’s NHL.

Put another way, buying in would be the easiest financial decision any of us could ever make, given the chance. Owning the Blues is a better bet than AI, robotaxis, or space tech.

[dhsux]

This theory has worried me since the salary Cap limit has been raised dramatically. Then hearing about the 18 million dollar contract to Leo Carlsson sort of alarms me as a fan of our “small market” team. It seems like the unstable tv contract that I assume the Blues play for will be into play for the Blues total income. We have not made the playoffs in two of three years and supposedly that very much affects the bottom line. So I wonder if we’ll be able to compete in four or five years when our $6-8 million dollar contracts expire. I think with the new high salary cap -besides making it harder to compete.-I’m afraid we may lose the team in St. Louis. Do any of you financial gurus see it this way too? How deep can the pockets be if we don’t even make the playoffs more often? Unless we have a bunch of Rich fans and contributors I don’t know how long we can keep this afloat after four or five years if we want a winning team

Absolutely zero worry of them not being able to stay afloat. According to Forbes, Stillman and his group bought the Blues for $180M and it’s now worth $1.55B.

I do think a team like STL may have a hard time staying profitable year to year if the cap keeps rising. But the cap rises when revenues rise. It’s all tied together. And owners get 50% of revenue. And there’s revenue sharing for the teams at the bottom. The Blues have never received revenue sharing as far as I’m aware, at least not in the Stillman era, but that safety net is there when teams underperform a bit.

But the real money is made via team valuation. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the smaller secondary owners start cashing out and taking their big gains. But I think Stillman will be owner basically until he dies. The owners are sitting pretty with the way the CBA is set up. They’ve had basically cash printing machines since the 2005 CBA. Some teams are obviously more profitable than others but a team has to really screw up to become non-viable in today’s NHL.

This is the deal.

This group has a ton of wealth, cash generating wealth year to year, and the Blues asset value is very much a part of their portfolios.

This whole thing is about the asset value of the franchise, not whether they make a million or ten million in a given year. May not be chump change but dang close when compared to the big picture.

And if ever needed I do agree with the parochial pride of this group being near equally important as it relates to the stability of the Blues franchise.

[blues2112]

It's mid-July, post draft, post many big trades, but is the NHL and Blues business model something the uninformed (ME at the top of that list) should fret about?!?!?

Goodness, Blues made great moves this off season, have reasonable contracts and cap space to use.