Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

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Army's Mom
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by Army's Mom »

dhsux wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:17 am
dr0zombie wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:12 am
billybaseball wrote: 04 Jul 2026 08:07 am Everything about this is dumb. Verbeek is dumb for playing hardball with the future of the franchise. Flyers are dumb for offering this contract as it's almost double what Carlson should get. And the Ducks would be dumb to match. And Carlson is dumb for taking it tbh. Now he has to live up to the contract which is impossible. If he goes to Philly and isn't the best player in the NHL he's going to get ripped apart. And now Martone is goi g to want a max contract in two years. DUMB
The only place I disagree is from the Briere view. He took a team with a ton of tallent on the wings and brought in a world class young center. If this works the Flyers are a beast. Yes, he overpaid. Everyone does with an offer sheet. Risk reward for Briere made this a bold and brilliant move.
His one move will have a negative impact on the group of people he is representing....ownership.

As I see it this offer is way over the past normal top in AAV and term.
Guarantee ownership is thrilled. Salaries are still capped, so theyre fine turning a profit even with a record contract. They just added a 1C, potentially.

Briere is the early leader for GM of the year. Baller move.
TAFKAP
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by TAFKAP »

billybaseball wrote: 04 Jul 2026 08:07 am Everything about this is dumb. Verbeek is dumb for playing hardball with the future of the franchise. Flyers are dumb for offering this contract as it's almost double what Carlson should get. And the Ducks would be dumb to match. And Carlson is dumb for taking it tbh. Now he has to live up to the contract which is impossible. If he goes to Philly and isn't the best player in the NHL he's going to get ripped apart. And now Martone is goi g to want a max contract in two years. DUMB
Yeah sorry [fork] the haters. 5 million more a year over 5 years? You'd walk away from 25 million dollars? I wouldn't. I don't care who gets pissy. I'm getting paid.
dhsux
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by dhsux »

Army's Mom wrote: 04 Jul 2026 12:42 pm
dhsux wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:17 am
dr0zombie wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:12 am
billybaseball wrote: 04 Jul 2026 08:07 am Everything about this is dumb. Verbeek is dumb for playing hardball with the future of the franchise. Flyers are dumb for offering this contract as it's almost double what Carlson should get. And the Ducks would be dumb to match. And Carlson is dumb for taking it tbh. Now he has to live up to the contract which is impossible. If he goes to Philly and isn't the best player in the NHL he's going to get ripped apart. And now Martone is goi g to want a max contract in two years. DUMB
The only place I disagree is from the Briere view. He took a team with a ton of tallent on the wings and brought in a world class young center. If this works the Flyers are a beast. Yes, he overpaid. Everyone does with an offer sheet. Risk reward for Briere made this a bold and brilliant move.
His one move will have a negative impact on the group of people he is representing....ownership.

As I see it this offer is way over the past normal top in AAV and term.
Guarantee ownership is thrilled. Salaries are still capped, so theyre fine turning a profit even with a record contract. They just added a 1C, potentially.

Briere is the early leader for GM of the year. Baller move.

How in the world are owners "thrilled" paying more for less? No matter what the cap level is. I must have missed it in econ 1.

And what of the franchises who do not spend to the cap? How thrilled are they?

I'll lay some money on that GM of the year award you claim coming his way. I'd put the same odds on Verbeek winning it.
Army's Mom
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by Army's Mom »

dhsux wrote: 04 Jul 2026 14:51 pm
Army's Mom wrote: 04 Jul 2026 12:42 pm
dhsux wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:17 am
dr0zombie wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:12 am
billybaseball wrote: 04 Jul 2026 08:07 am Everything about this is dumb. Verbeek is dumb for playing hardball with the future of the franchise. Flyers are dumb for offering this contract as it's almost double what Carlson should get. And the Ducks would be dumb to match. And Carlson is dumb for taking it tbh. Now he has to live up to the contract which is impossible. If he goes to Philly and isn't the best player in the NHL he's going to get ripped apart. And now Martone is goi g to want a max contract in two years. DUMB
The only place I disagree is from the Briere view. He took a team with a ton of tallent on the wings and brought in a world class young center. If this works the Flyers are a beast. Yes, he overpaid. Everyone does with an offer sheet. Risk reward for Briere made this a bold and brilliant move.
His one move will have a negative impact on the group of people he is representing....ownership.

As I see it this offer is way over the past normal top in AAV and term.
Guarantee ownership is thrilled. Salaries are still capped, so theyre fine turning a profit even with a record contract. They just added a 1C, potentially.

Briere is the early leader for GM of the year. Baller move.

How in the world are owners "thrilled" paying more for less? No matter what the cap level is. I must have missed it in econ 1.

And what of the franchises who do not spend to the cap? How thrilled are they?

I'll lay some money on that GM of the year award you claim coming his way. I'd put the same odds on Verbeek winning it.
Owners have a hard cap on salary, so the Flyers wont have to spend more - 18M on Carlsson just leaves less to spend elsewhere. But, with a young team and several players on entry level deals, they can afford to overspend on a 1C.

As you know, its (bleep) near impossible to get a 1C without a top 3 pick, and PHI wasnt likely to be picking in that range going forward. It's the most glaring hole in their lineup, one that is worth 18M to fix.

The odds of Carlsson living up to 18M are slim, true. But, he is likely worth 12-13m right now, and closer to 15m per over the next 5 yrs. Offer sheets are always going to result in an over pay - the extra 3-6M per year ti Carlsson is just the cost of doing business - the premium price of acquiring a true 1C.

PHI doesnt need the mid to late 1st round picks (picks which wont result in filling their glaring 1C hole). There's no way PHI owners are upset.

Other owners, sure. Starting with ANA. But, as one of the pundits wrote about ANA's hard ball tactics, "play stupid games, win stupid prizes".
Jobafish
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by Jobafish »

We might be able to get 10 first rounders for Thomas now at his salary. His salary just became an absolute steal.
STL fan in MN
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by STL fan in MN »

dhsux wrote: 04 Jul 2026 14:51 pm
Army's Mom wrote: 04 Jul 2026 12:42 pm
dhsux wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:17 am
dr0zombie wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:12 am
billybaseball wrote: 04 Jul 2026 08:07 am Everything about this is dumb. Verbeek is dumb for playing hardball with the future of the franchise. Flyers are dumb for offering this contract as it's almost double what Carlson should get. And the Ducks would be dumb to match. And Carlson is dumb for taking it tbh. Now he has to live up to the contract which is impossible. If he goes to Philly and isn't the best player in the NHL he's going to get ripped apart. And now Martone is goi g to want a max contract in two years. DUMB
The only place I disagree is from the Briere view. He took a team with a ton of tallent on the wings and brought in a world class young center. If this works the Flyers are a beast. Yes, he overpaid. Everyone does with an offer sheet. Risk reward for Briere made this a bold and brilliant move.
His one move will have a negative impact on the group of people he is representing....ownership.

As I see it this offer is way over the past normal top in AAV and term.
Guarantee ownership is thrilled. Salaries are still capped, so theyre fine turning a profit even with a record contract. They just added a 1C, potentially.

Briere is the early leader for GM of the year. Baller move.

How in the world are owners "thrilled" paying more for less? No matter what the cap level is. I must have missed it in econ 1.

And what of the franchises who do not spend to the cap? How thrilled are they?

I'll lay some money on that GM of the year award you claim coming his way. I'd put the same odds on Verbeek winning it.
I’d say Verbeek is many times more likely to get fired than win GM of the year.

The Philly owners are clearly on board here. No way a move this big isn’t made without ownership buy-in. And Army’s Mom is correct - they’re going to spend about the same amount either way. And if they spend more with a roster that includes Carlsson than a roster that doesn’t, but that roster is better and thus it results in more tickets sold and/or more home playoff games, then it’ll pay for itself and then some pretty easily.

And owners keep 50% of revenues no matter what. Even if ANA matches, the Philly GM and ownership can probably walk around town as heroes as at least they tried to go big.
skilles
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by skilles »

I'm not sure people quite understand the players get 50% of the revenue NO MATTER WHAT. Its not optional or maybe, the GMs/owners might decide which players get more of it than other but the owners spend exactly half of the NHL revenue on players period.

Ive been saying for awhile we are about to enter A time where they have more money to spend than they can find good places to spend it. The Blues have actually been doing that for awhile on various project players. The market has needed a correction for a couple years now.

I don't think ALL young players should be quite as happy about this as people think, I'm not sure Flyers players should be licking their chops as much as being concerned their is not enough money left for them. Paying top line players huge amounts of money is not necessarily great for ole 3rd line Joe.

A team only has 104 million to spend, 20 million on top line Jack probably means less for ole 3rd line Joe.

If you are on A team with Carlsson and want to stay on that team he didn't just raise the payroll potential, the payroll potential is a set number. He just took a bigger share leaving less for everyone else not more.
Army's Mom
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by Army's Mom »

skilles wrote: 04 Jul 2026 18:33 pm I'm not sure people quite understand the players get 50% of the revenue NO MATTER WHAT. Its not optional or maybe, the GMs/owners might decide which players get more of it than other but the owners spend exactly half of the NHL revenue on players period.

Ive been saying for awhile we are about to enter A time where they have more money to spend than they can find good places to spend it. The Blues have actually been doing that for awhile on various project players. The market has needed a correction for a couple years now.

I don't think ALL young players should be quite as happy about this as people think, I'm not sure Flyers players should be licking their chops as much as being concerned their is not enough money left for them. Paying top line players huge amounts of money is not necessarily great for ole 3rd line Joe.

A team only has 104 million to spend, 20 million on top line Jack probably means less for ole 3rd line Joe.

If you are on A team with Carlsson and want to stay on that team he didn't just raise the payroll potential, the payroll potential is a set number. He just took a bigger share leaving less for everyone else not more.
For sure, thats true. But PHI has six solid wingers and hardly any centers. An 18M Carlsson means less money left for, say, Martone, but it will also benefit Martone to have a legit playmaker versus Christian Dvorak as his center.

The only "downside" for this in PHI is that ANA is still likely to match. Maybe 20M would have worked...
Sophisticated Shoes
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by Sophisticated Shoes »

The only downside for Philly is if Leo lays an egg, or the team doesn't improve which are both unlikely. Ballsy move Philly!
Chris2fer
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by Chris2fer »

While Philly would love to have him, it's unlikely they will let him go. Given the amount is about 4 to 6 over what people were estimating what he'd end up with my guess is that it's more about handcuffing then into letting go of another player later.
dhsux
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by dhsux »

STL fan in MN wrote: 04 Jul 2026 17:20 pm
dhsux wrote: 04 Jul 2026 14:51 pm
Army's Mom wrote: 04 Jul 2026 12:42 pm
dhsux wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:17 am
dr0zombie wrote: 04 Jul 2026 09:12 am
billybaseball wrote: 04 Jul 2026 08:07 am Everything about this is dumb. Verbeek is dumb for playing hardball with the future of the franchise. Flyers are dumb for offering this contract as it's almost double what Carlson should get. And the Ducks would be dumb to match. And Carlson is dumb for taking it tbh. Now he has to live up to the contract which is impossible. If he goes to Philly and isn't the best player in the NHL he's going to get ripped apart. And now Martone is goi g to want a max contract in two years. DUMB
The only place I disagree is from the Briere view. He took a team with a ton of tallent on the wings and brought in a world class young center. If this works the Flyers are a beast. Yes, he overpaid. Everyone does with an offer sheet. Risk reward for Briere made this a bold and brilliant move.
His one move will have a negative impact on the group of people he is representing....ownership.

As I see it this offer is way over the past normal top in AAV and term.
Guarantee ownership is thrilled. Salaries are still capped, so theyre fine turning a profit even with a record contract. They just added a 1C, potentially.

Briere is the early leader for GM of the year. Baller move.

How in the world are owners "thrilled" paying more for less? No matter what the cap level is. I must have missed it in econ 1.

And what of the franchises who do not spend to the cap? How thrilled are they?

I'll lay some money on that GM of the year award you claim coming his way. I'd put the same odds on Verbeek winning it.
I’d say Verbeek is many times more likely to get fired than win GM of the year.

The Philly owners are clearly on board here. No way a move this big isn’t made without ownership buy-in. And Army’s Mom is correct - they’re going to spend about the same amount either way. And if they spend more with a roster that includes Carlsson than a roster that doesn’t, but that roster is better and thus it results in more tickets sold and/or more home playoff games, then it’ll pay for itself and then some pretty easily.

And owners keep 50% of revenues no matter what. Even if ANA matches, the Philly GM and ownership can probably walk around town as heroes as at least they tried to go big.
Guys I was referring to league owners not Flyers owner.

And the Verbeek comment was in jest.
Backesdraft
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by Backesdraft »

Love offer sheets but man alive, this whole waiting a week thing drives me nuts. I remember being on pins and needles the entire time we were waiting for EDM to make decisions on Broberg and Holloway. Fans in Philly and Anh gotta be sweatin’!
skilles
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by skilles »

I feel like the compensation requirements are pretty pretty outdated. Probably need to add A level for over $15,000,000 or adjust the numbers somehow.
moose-and-squirrel
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by moose-and-squirrel »

skilles wrote: 05 Jul 2026 09:09 am I feel like the compensation requirements are pretty pretty outdated. Probably need to add A level for over $15,000,000 or adjust the numbers somehow.
thinking the same thing. adding a couple of 3rds prolly doesn't make a dent.. 2 2nds?
BleedingBleu
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by BleedingBleu »

Chris2fer wrote: 05 Jul 2026 05:39 am While Philly would love to have him, it's unlikely they will let him go. Given the amount is about 4 to 6 over what people were estimating what he'd end up with my guess is that it's more about handcuffing then into letting go of another player later.
Anaheim would be insane to not match.
Pierre McGuire
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Re: Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Post by Pierre McGuire »

We are on the verge of the $20 mil dollar player.
Gonna be interesting to see how aggressive the Islanders are towards Schaefer a year from now.
I really would have liked to see the Blues make a run at Fantilli and see if they could have structured it in a way that might give Columbus pause and then maybe you work out a deal involving Dvo plus but I guess that ship has sailed now.