Cardinals successful with no long termed contracts?

[ecleme22]

Alex brings up an excellent point.

While mattmitch is locking up everybody, Alex is on the other spectrum.

What I think: It's a mix.

Burleson, for example, is good. Do we need to sign him to an extension? No. We could trade him for mlb ready prospects next year and put Herrera at 1B.

Just an example. But not every good Cardinal right now needs to be locked up.

I think this is right, although imo you're exaggerating how extreme mattmitch is on the topic.

OP plan is as sure a thing as the outcome of 1st round draft picks (let alone mid-late 1st round picks)... which is to say laughably uncertain.

Well he did say the Cards should lock up as many as 8 players.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

Obviously there is no right or wrong way when discussing in this space. I think you lock up younger transformational players.

I see JJ and maybe Walker. Winn too.

But that’s about it and none of them are for certain.

In theory you run these players ~4 years min 6 max with ideally flipping them in their second to last or last year landing additional top notch prospects.

It works but like any other strategy it can backfire as well just like locking up (Strasberg).

I’m of the opinion they will operate like the Rays continually flipping as the player becomes more expensive and replenishing the minors to get special talented players

If you land a Caminero or Griffey you most certainly lock him up but the others can roll off the roster and bring the next man up.

[3dender]

Alex brings up an excellent point.

While mattmitch is locking up everybody, Alex is on the other spectrum.

What I think: It's a mix.

Burleson, for example, is good. Do we need to sign him to an extension? No. We could trade him for mlb ready prospects next year and put Herrera at 1B.

Just an example. But not every good Cardinal right now needs to be locked up.

I think this is right, although imo you're exaggerating how extreme mattmitch is on the topic.

OP plan is as sure a thing as the outcome of 1st round draft picks (let alone mid-late 1st round picks)... which is to say laughably uncertain.

Well he did say the Cards should lock up as many as 8 players.

"Locking up" doesn't necessarly mean for 7-10 year contracts... they can be 3-4 year deals as well to buy out Arb plus 1 FA year... similar to the DeJong deal which despite how it ended actually was not objectively bad from a financial investment/whole contract standpoint.

[mattmitchl44]

Alex brings up an excellent point.

While mattmitch is locking up everybody, Alex is on the other spectrum.

What I think: It's a mix.

Burleson, for example, is good. Do we need to sign him to an extension? No. We could trade him for mlb ready prospects next year and put Herrera at 1B.

Just an example. But not every good Cardinal right now needs to be locked up.

I think this is right, although imo you're exaggerating how extreme mattmitch is on the topic.

OP plan is as sure a thing as the outcome of 1st round draft picks (let alone mid-late 1st round picks)... which is to say laughably uncertain.

Well he did say the Cards should lock up as many as 8 players.

Which, even at that, would be less than 1/3 of the 26-man roster.

I would not get stuck on the perception that because perhaps it hasn't been done by a team yet that it should not be done or will not be done going forward.

No team had signed a player to an extension before they brought them to the majors - until someone did.

[mattmitchl44]

Alex brings up an excellent point.

While mattmitch is locking up everybody, Alex is on the other spectrum.

What I think: It's a mix.

Burleson, for example, is good. Do we need to sign him to an extension? No. We could trade him for mlb ready prospects next year and put Herrera at 1B.

Just an example. But not every good Cardinal right now needs to be locked up.

I think this is right, although imo you're exaggerating how extreme mattmitch is on the topic.

OP plan is as sure a thing as the outcome of 1st round draft picks (let alone mid-late 1st round picks)... which is to say laughably uncertain.

Well he did say the Cards should lock up as many as 8 players.

"Locking up" doesn't necessarly mean for 7-10 year contracts... they can be 3-4 year deals as well to buy out Arb plus 1 FA year... similar to the DeJong deal which despite how it ended actually was not objectively bad from a financial investment/whole contract standpoint.

Yes - every long term extension for a young player needs to be done for an appropriate number of years and at an appropriate price point (AAV) that is case specific to that player.

And to reiterate a point that has already been made - all of this is contingent on the team being very good at player talent evaluation and, therefore, being better than average at making these decisions about years and AAV to get these young players signed for.

But ANY strategy - however a team might want to go about trying to win - has to be based on being very good at player talent evaluation.

Being afraid that the team will make a bunch of mistakes and sign a lot of young players to bad extensions is going down the rabbit hole of being afraid that they will simply be bad at player talent evaluation. And if you are going to be afraid of that, then the situation is basically hopeless.

[Jatalk]

As a fan I hope not. I hope they develop a core of players long term. Players we can look forward to watching each year.

and the club ends up with a bunch of guys on the wrong side of thirty making big bux..

If memory serves, that philosophy was tried recently with less than stellar results..

And you can be like the Pirates and never extend your best players.

The pirates did not extend..

The cards did…

The results have been the same….

Not really. I’m thinking about historically. Plus Mo had the worst luck or stupid when paying high priced players. But don’t get me wrong I’m not for long term contracts in general and certainly not on 30+ age wise players.

[ecleme22]

Alex brings up an excellent point.

While mattmitch is locking up everybody, Alex is on the other spectrum.

What I think: It's a mix.

Burleson, for example, is good. Do we need to sign him to an extension? No. We could trade him for mlb ready prospects next year and put Herrera at 1B.

Just an example. But not every good Cardinal right now needs to be locked up.

I think this is right, although imo you're exaggerating how extreme mattmitch is on the topic.

OP plan is as sure a thing as the outcome of 1st round draft picks (let alone mid-late 1st round picks)... which is to say laughably uncertain.

Well he did say the Cards should lock up as many as 8 players.

"Locking up" doesn't necessarly mean for 7-10 year contracts... they can be 3-4 year deals as well to buy out Arb plus 1 FA year... similar to the DeJong deal which despite how it ended actually was not objectively bad from a financial investment/whole contract standpoint.

Few things...

1. The DeJong contract showed that when you invest in a player like that, and he struggles, an org can spend a lot of time trying to 'get him right' instead of moving on from him (ie. Grichuk). And although struggling, a team, because of the contract, will still build the roster assuming X player will start (no roster competition). The problem wasn't the money in the contract, the problem was how DeJong essentially had nine lives for years.
2. Let's say DeJong didn't sign that contract and was a STUD, and earned a ton in arbitration. The good thing about arbitration is that it's market value. So if DeJong hit 39 HR in 2021 and earned a boat load in arbitration, he would still be very much tradable.
3. Lastly, those LT contracts shouldn't be for players like DeJong or Piscotty...

[45s]

As a fan I hope not. I hope they develop a core of players long term. Players we can look forward to watching each year.

and the club ends up with a bunch of guys on the wrong side of thirty making big bux..

If memory serves, that philosophy was tried recently with less than stellar results..

And you can be like the Pirates and never extend your best players.

The pirates did not extend..

The cards did…

The results have been the same….

Not really. I’m thinking about historically. Plus Mo had the worst luck or stupid when paying high priced players. But don’t get me wrong I’m not for long term contracts in general and certainly not on 30+ age wise players.

Mo signed guys who didn't deserve one year deals...

it seems with bloom those days are over.....from my perspective that is very encouraging...

[ecleme22]

As a fan I hope not. I hope they develop a core of players long term. Players we can look forward to watching each year.

and the club ends up with a bunch of guys on the wrong side of thirty making big bux..

If memory serves, that philosophy was tried recently with less than stellar results..

And you can be like the Pirates and never extend your best players.

The pirates did not extend..

The cards did…

The results have been the same….

Not really. I’m thinking about historically. Plus Mo had the worst luck or stupid when paying high priced players. But don’t get me wrong I’m not for long term contracts in general and certainly not on 30+ age wise players.

Mo signed guys who didn't deserve one year deals...

it seems with bloom those days are over.....from my perspective that is very encouraging...

What one year deals are you referring to?

[rockondlouie]

I don't see that happening Alex.

The 2027 payroll will be peanuts (well under $20M on the books ).

Once the new CBA is in place, Dewitt will spend.

-JJW is going to get locked down to a L-T deal, just a matter of when and not if.

-If JW finishes this season like he's started, then he'll also get a L-T deal.

-I have no fear letting M. Winn go until 2029 (a year before he's to become a FA), I don't see teams lining up to sign an all glove, .700 OPS SS.

-Burly is well liked by C. Bloom & Oli & teammates, turns 28 yrs old later this year and isn't a FA until 2029.

He'll be 30 yrs old when he can hit the open market, shouldn't be hard for the Cardinals to keep him on a three year deal then if they want to.

The Cardinals aren't going to become the Pirates, Marlins, ect..............this is a re-tooling, not their business model.

If the fans start coming back and attendance is well above 2.5M, then BDWJr will spend.

JMO

[45s]

As a fan I hope not. I hope they develop a core of players long term. Players we can look forward to watching each year.

and the club ends up with a bunch of guys on the wrong side of thirty making big bux..

If memory serves, that philosophy was tried recently with less than stellar results..

And you can be like the Pirates and never extend your best players.

The pirates did not extend..

The cards did…

The results have been the same….

Not really. I’m thinking about historically. Plus Mo had the worst luck or stupid when paying high priced players. But don’t get me wrong I’m not for long term contracts in general and certainly not on 30+ age wise players.

Mo signed guys who didn't deserve one year deals...

it seems with bloom those days are over.....from my perspective that is very encouraging...

What one year deals are you referring to?

molina...wainwright....carpenter

they paid molina millions to spend the season in P R

they paid wainwright millions, apparently to back up third and then laugh on the bench as the losses mounted...

they paid carpenter millions to......well, I don't know what the hellllll for..

[ecleme22]

As a fan I hope not. I hope they develop a core of players long term. Players we can look forward to watching each year.

and the club ends up with a bunch of guys on the wrong side of thirty making big bux..

If memory serves, that philosophy was tried recently with less than stellar results..

And you can be like the Pirates and never extend your best players.

The pirates did not extend..

The cards did…

The results have been the same….

Not really. I’m thinking about historically. Plus Mo had the worst luck or stupid when paying high priced players. But don’t get me wrong I’m not for long term contracts in general and certainly not on 30+ age wise players.

Mo signed guys who didn't deserve one year deals...

it seems with bloom those days are over.....from my perspective that is very encouraging...

What one year deals are you referring to?

molina...wainwright....carpenter

they paid molina millions to spend the season in P R

they paid wainwright millions, apparently to back up third and then laugh on the bench as the losses mounted...

they paid carpenter millions to......well, I don't know what the hellllll for..

The Carp one year deal was just in 2024 and it was like 2mil.
Wainwright's one year deals were good, except for the last one. Same with Molina.

[cardsrmyteam]

Instead of signing Winn, Wetherholt, Walker, Burley.

Running these guys up until year 4, 5, 6 and trading them for more prospects, rinse lather repeat. Walker turns out to be second coming of Judge, you get a Soto like haul.

Winn JJ Burley not so much but still a nice haul.

Is this the model? Does this become the north star of the St. Louis Cardinals?

While the Ray signed Lowe to a deal, they traded him and well Wander is Wander, which was a serious black swan. I would assume they will flip Cam once his ARB gets large and he gets to a state where it makes sense to flip him.

IF the Cardinals chose to go that route they could get a freakishly good minors.\

Swinging back to the point, can they be successful (defined as perennial) playoff contenders with this model. Truth be told I could careless if they cycle players out year in and out. Except for rare high WAR level talent.

If this worked the Pirates and other low payroll teams would be champions. It takes a while for talent to gel and become a championship team. It also requires some veteran leadership.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Instead of signing Winn, Wetherholt, Walker, Burley.

Running these guys up until year 4, 5, 6 and trading them for more prospects, rinse lather repeat. Walker turns out to be second coming of Judge, you get a Soto like haul.

Winn JJ Burley not so much but still a nice haul.

Is this the model? Does this become the north star of the St. Louis Cardinals?

While the Ray signed Lowe to a deal, they traded him and well Wander is Wander, which was a serious black swan. I would assume they will flip Cam once his ARB gets large and he gets to a state where it makes sense to flip him.

IF the Cardinals chose to go that route they could get a freakishly good minors.\

Swinging back to the point, can they be successful (defined as perennial) playoff contenders with this model. Truth be told I could careless if they cycle players out year in and out. Except for rare high WAR level talent.

If this worked the Pirates and other low payroll teams would be champions. It takes a while for talent to gel and become a championship team. It also requires some veteran leadership.

Are you referring to the current Cardinal team reference veterans leadership.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

I’m not sure I give the veteran leadership angle much credence.