JJ is tremendous, but stats show he's struggling with breaking stuff

[ClassicO]

I have to think he's going to see far more breaking/offspeed stuff until he learns to hit them. The second chart indicates he's seeing a lot more breaking/offspeed stuff since April 15th.
It's early, so I think he improves in that one area. He's balling in all others.

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[CorneliusWolfe]

Not surprised. It happens with pretty much all gifted hitters. My guess is he adjusts pretty quickly. No stopping this kid.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

Lots of pitchers have trouble throwing strikes with their breaking stuff and JJ is patient. I gotta be honest - I think STL struck gold with this kid and there won't be an adjustment problem.

Walker I'm still nervous about. 2 years of suckage and now he is Pujolsian. is it a mirage?

[NYCardsFan]

I have to think he's going to see far more breaking/offspeed stuff until he learns to hit them. The second chart indicates he's seeing a lot more breaking/offspeed stuff since April 15th.
It's early, so I think he improves in that one area. He's balling in all others.



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The statcast x-stats appear to directionally support the raw outcome numbers:

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[Ronnie Dobbs]

Lots of pitchers have trouble throwing strikes with their breaking stuff and JJ is patient. I gotta be honest - I think STL struck gold with this kid and there won't be an adjustment problem.

Walker I'm still nervous about. 2 years of suckage and now he is Pujolsian. is it a mirage?

I think Walker got called up before he was ready. He was a guy that they needed to take their time with and develop. A guy like JJ is basically a finished product when he was drafted. The Cardinals still made him start at A ball after he was drafted and AA to start the next year. Basically a year and a half in the minors. All they gave Walker, a raw kid that was drafted out of high school, was two years in the minors before calling him up. And it's not like he went on some Pujolsian rampage in the minors. He was good, but he wasn't that good.

I don't think that Walker just sucked the last few years because he wasn't capable. I think that he sucked because he was not properly developed. He got called up and could barely get his head above water, let along work on certain things that the FO wanted. And who knows. If they kept him at AAA instead of calling him up that year, and then eventually call him up the next year, maybe he goes on to play similar to how he did the last few years. It could be just that he needed extra time and now he's there.

I am probably about to curse him, but I think it might be real. Unfortunately, because of the last two years, people are going to have those doubts. Probably for a long time.

[Banner29]

Lots of pitchers have trouble throwing strikes with their breaking stuff and JJ is patient. I gotta be honest - I think STL struck gold with this kid and there won't be an adjustment problem.

Walker I'm still nervous about. 2 years of suckage and now he is Pujolsian. is it a mirage?

My thoughts exactly. I love what Walker is doing but I have been refraining myself from getting too excited.

I’m just not ready to be hurt again

[rockondlouie]

Good stuff CO and NY

Just from the naked eye I could see he was having trouble w/the breaking stuff as well as offspeed pitches and your stats show it.

MLB is all about adjustments.

Given his pedigree and makeup I'd bet he makes the adjustments.

[WaltsSuccessor]

Lots of pitchers have trouble throwing strikes with their breaking stuff and JJ is patient. I gotta be honest - I think STL struck gold with this kid and there won't be an adjustment problem.

Walker I'm still nervous about. 2 years of suckage and now he is Pujolsian. is it a mirage?

I think Walker got called up before he was ready. He was a guy that they needed to take their time with and develop. A guy like JJ is basically a finished product when he was drafted. The Cardinals still made him start at A ball after he was drafted and AA to start the next year. Basically a year and a half in the minors. All they gave Walker, a raw kid that was drafted out of high school, was two years in the minors before calling him up. And it's not like he went on some Pujolsian rampage in the minors. He was good, but he wasn't that good.

I don't think that Walker just sucked the last few years because he wasn't capable. I think that he sucked because he was not properly developed. He got called up and could barely get his head above water, let along work on certain things that the FO wanted. And who knows. If they kept him at AAA instead of calling him up that year, and then eventually call him up the next year, maybe he goes on to play similar to how he did the last few years. It could be just that he needed extra time and now he's there.

I am probably about to curse him, but I think it might be real. Unfortunately, because of the last two years, people are going to have those doubts. Probably for a long time.

He's 99th percentile in EV, hardhit%, and barrel%. It's not a mirage. Now, he's always hit the ball hard and ranked highly on those first two. BUT, he's elevated those two to higher levels AND basically doubled his barrel%. All while improving his BB%.

I'm sure he'll slump a bit at some point to come back down to Earth a little with a normalized BABIP. But you can't fake those statcast numbers. His results aren't luck driven. His BABIP should be at a career high with those batted ball metrics.

[NYCardsFan]

He's 99th percentile in EV, hardhit%, and barrel%. It's not a mirage. Now, he's always hit the ball hard and ranked highly on those first two. BUT, he's elevated those two to higher levels AND basically doubled his barrel%. All while improving his BB%.

I'm sure he'll slump a bit at some point to come back down to Earth a little with a normalized BABIP. But you can't fake those statcast numbers. His results aren't luck driven. His BABIP should be at a career high with those batted ball metrics.

Over the past couple weeks, his actual- and x-stats have converged quite a bit. What he’s done so far is largely supported by the peripherals.

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[Ronnie Dobbs]

He's 99th percentile in EV, hardhit%, and barrel%. It's not a mirage. Now, he's always hit the ball hard and ranked highly on those first two. BUT, he's elevated those two to higher levels AND basically doubled his barrel%. All while improving his BB%.

I'm sure he'll slump a bit at some point to come back down to Earth a little with a normalized BABIP. But you can't fake those statcast numbers. His results aren't luck driven. His BABIP should be at a career high with those batted ball metrics.

I agree with you. But his performance the last 2 years is going to have lots of people wondering if he's coming back to earth after every time he struggles. At least through this year.

[greyhawk]

Both JJ and Jordan are 23 --- they just got here in very different ways. They could be quite the combo over the next 5-10 yrs.

[3dender]

He's 99th percentile in EV, hardhit%, and barrel%. It's not a mirage. Now, he's always hit the ball hard and ranked highly on those first two. BUT, he's elevated those two to higher levels AND basically doubled his barrel%. All while improving his BB%.

I'm sure he'll slump a bit at some point to come back down to Earth a little with a normalized BABIP. But you can't fake those statcast numbers. His results aren't luck driven. His BABIP should be at a career high with those batted ball metrics.

I agree with you. But his performance the last 2 years is going to have lots of people wondering if he's coming back to earth after every time he struggles. At least through this year.

His rebound after those 2 weeks of struggling is very encouraging.

Also this is anecdotal but I now see him looking terrible in a single AB or getting fooled horribly for the K, but then in the very same game he gets a solid hit or two, even after that terrible AB. Previously those terrible ABs would have piled up, he would have got into his head and been overthinking it, becoming defeated. Now he seems more able to shake it off from one PA to the next, which would be an absolutely huge development. Because with his swing and plate approach he is GONNA look like a fool a decent amount of the time, so he's gotta be able to keep it moving.

So yeah I'm very much on record as a Walker pessimist coming into this year, but I'm becoming a believer. Could not be happier to have been wrong.

[11WSChamps]

Wetherholt is the last guy Im worried about.

Sure there will some trying times but his knowledge of the strike zone is perhaps his biggest asset.

Never thought much about all the hype here on him but as much as people want to talk about Walker I believe this team's offensive success to this point rides with the rookie.

[WaltsSuccessor]

He's 99th percentile in EV, hardhit%, and barrel%. It's not a mirage. Now, he's always hit the ball hard and ranked highly on those first two. BUT, he's elevated those two to higher levels AND basically doubled his barrel%. All while improving his BB%.

I'm sure he'll slump a bit at some point to come back down to Earth a little with a normalized BABIP. But you can't fake those statcast numbers. His results aren't luck driven. His BABIP should be at a career high with those batted ball metrics.

I agree with you. But his performance the last 2 years is going to have lots of people wondering if he's coming back to earth after every time he struggles. At least through this year.

For sure. If he starts chasing down and away like crazy again, then all bets are off. The EV and hardhit% won't matter. But at least we now see what his true potential is.

It's also been really cool seeing the improvement in the OF too. We always knew about the cannon, but he's actually playing good D now too. Dude has all the tools.

[Strummer Jones]

Wetherholt is the last guy Im worried about.

Sure there will some trying times but his knowledge of the strike zone is perhaps his biggest asset.

Never thought much about all the hype here on him but as much as people want to talk about Walker I believe this team's offensive success to this point rides with the rookie.

And to your point, I think having a bonafide lead-off hitter for the first time in a long, long time is an underrated key to how successful this line-up has been.

I think of all the guys, I feel most confident when JJ comes up. Seems even when he makes an out, he's taking 5+ pitches to do so. If you can't get a hit, at least make the pitcher work his butt off to get you out. So I like that out of the leadoff spot. Plus the offense that he's been bringing to the table. Think about it...the leadoff hitter is a guy who knows the strike zone like he's been around the block, and knows his hot zones. You know he's got no problem spitting on a pitch that's not his. And if you move into his zone, you're looking at him getting on base...or worse.

And when he does get on base, he runs well. Not a burner, really, but a guy who knows when to stretch for another base, and when to be more conservative. He reminds me of Scott Rolen in that way. Neither were classically fast, but both punched way above their weight on the bases.

I don't think JJ will be as good as Pujols (shocker statement, I know) but he reminds me of Albert in that when he got to the majors, he looked like he belonged immediately. Already was playing like a smart vet...but had the physical talent of a guy who was still on his way to his prime.

[bccardsfan]

Wetherholt is the last guy Im worried about.

Sure there will some trying times but his knowledge of the strike zone is perhaps his biggest asset.

Never thought much about all the hype here on him but as much as people want to talk about Walker I believe this team's offensive success to this point rides with the rookie.

And to your point, I think having a bonafide lead-off hitter for the first time in a long, long time is an underrated key to how successful this line-up has been.

I think of all the guys, I feel most confident when JJ comes up. Seems even when he makes an out, he's taking 5+ pitches to do so. If you can't get a hit, at least make the pitcher work his butt off to get you out. So I like that out of the leadoff spot. Plus the offense that he's been bringing to the table. Think about it...the leadoff hitter is a guy who knows the strike zone like he's been around the block, and knows his hot zones. You know he's got no problem spitting on a pitch that's not his. And if you move into his zone, you're looking at him getting on base...or worse.

And when he does get on base, he runs well. Not a burner, really, but a guy who knows when to stretch for another base, and when to be more conservative. He reminds me of Scott Rolen in that way. Neither were classically fast, but both punched way above their weight on the bases.

I don't think JJ will be as good as Pujols (shocker statement, I know) but he reminds me of Albert in that when he got to the majors, he looked like he belonged immediately. Already was playing like a smart vet...but had the physical talent of a guy who was still on his way to his prime.

I agree with all of that, and what has also blown me away is how good a defensive player this guy is. He and Winn up the middle..? 'nuff said. Those two look like they really enjoy playing next to each other.