DRAFT LOTTERY

[dhsux]

I need some help here guys.

I'm trying to understand the rules and odds for the Blues and am running into some discrepancies or maybe it's just just confusion on my part.

I've seen the blues odds at #1 at 3% and 1.5%....which is it?

And I don't get why the Blues can't get the #2 slot in the second drawing.....I've seen it said here on this board that #5 is the best they can do in round 2?

Is not the second drawing dedicated to #2 for ALL teams left?

If anyone could clarify for this dummy I'd appreciate the real scoop for Tuesday night.

[a smell of green grass]

I need some help here guys.

I'm trying to understand the rules and odds for the Blues and am running into some discrepancies or maybe it's just just confusion on my part.

I've seen the blues odds at #1 at 3% and 1.5%....which is it?

And I don't get why the Blues can't get the #2 slot in the second drawing.....I've seen it said here on this board that #5 is the best they can do in round 2?

Is not the second drawing dedicated to #2 for ALL teams left?

If anyone could clarify for this dummy I'd appreciate the real scoop for Tuesday night.

What's the draft lottery? I'm from St. Louis, and have been here for 20 years, and I have no idea what draft lottery is. I certainly don't know how it works. You'll have to ask Colorado or Anaheim.

[BalotelliMassive]

Per the rules, a team can only move up a maximum of 10 spots. So, only the top 11 teams can win the first overall pick. If a team ranked 12-16 wins either drawing, they would move up 10 spots, and the lowest-seeded team remaining would slot into that pick. So, if the Columbus Blue Jackets win the second drawing, they will move up to fourth overall, and the Blackhawks will keep the second overall pick, assuming they haven’t won the first drawing.

The odds for winning the first-overall pick are as follows:
Vancouver Canucks – 25.5%
Chicago Blackhawks – 13.5%
New York Rangers – 11.5%
Calgary Flames – 9.5%
Toronto Maple Leafs – 8.5%
Seattle Kraken – 7.5%
Winnipeg Jets – 6.5%
Florida Panthers – 6.0%
San Jose Sharks – 5.0%
Nashville Predators – 3.5%
St. Louis Blues – 3.0%

[a smell of green grass]

Here is how it works...

The rules for the draft lottery

The draft lottery was introduced in 1995 and has undergone changes over the years. The current system has been in place since 2021, with tweaks made in 2022.

It will be conducted in two phases, with one drawing to determine the No. 1 pick and another to determine the No. 2 pick. The number of spots that a club can climb is 10, so the top 11 seeds will be eligible to receive the No. 1 pick and Nos. 12 through 16 can only jump as high as Nos. 2 through 6.

Each team is assigned a set of four-number combinations, using numbers 1 through 14. There are 1,000 total combinations, and they are distributed based on where teams finish in the standings. Four numbers are selected at random from a lottery machine to determine the No. 1 pick, then the process is repeated for the second pick.

[bluetunehead]

I need some help here guys.

I'm trying to understand the rules and odds for the Blues and am running into some discrepancies or maybe it's just just confusion on my part.

I've seen the blues odds at #1 at 3% and 1.5%....which is it?

And I don't get why the Blues can't get the #2 slot in the second drawing.....I've seen it said here on this board that #5 is the best they can do in round 2?

Is not the second drawing dedicated to #2 for ALL teams left?

If anyone could clarify for this dummy I'd appreciate the real scoop for Tuesday night.

If our Detroit pick (currently #15) is chosen in the lottery then it can only move up to #5, as moving up 10 spots is the limit. If our own pick (currently #11) is chosen then it can move up to #1.

The odds of our own pick getting chosen in the lottery are about 3%. The odds of the Detroit pick getting chosen are about 1%.

[MrPostman01]

I need some help here guys.

I'm trying to understand the rules and odds for the Blues and am running into some discrepancies or maybe it's just just confusion on my part.

I've seen the blues odds at #1 at 3% and 1.5%....which is it?

And I don't get why the Blues can't get the #2 slot in the second drawing.....I've seen it said here on this board that #5 is the best they can do in round 2?

Is not the second drawing dedicated to #2 for ALL teams left?

If anyone could clarify for this dummy I'd appreciate the real scoop for Tuesday night.

If our Detroit pick (currently #15) is chosen in the lottery then it can only move up to #5, as moving up 10 spots is the limit. If our own pick (currently #11) is chosen then it can move up to #1.

The odds of our own pick getting chosen in the lottery are about 3%. The odds of the Detroit pick getting chosen are about 1%.

We could move up to #5 with the Detroit pick and #2 with our pick. We would still get our man at 2! (I can dream a little while more)

[bluetunehead]

Odds Chart from Tankathon:

[bluetunehead]

I need some help here guys.

I'm trying to understand the rules and odds for the Blues and am running into some discrepancies or maybe it's just just confusion on my part.

I've seen the blues odds at #1 at 3% and 1.5%....which is it?

And I don't get why the Blues can't get the #2 slot in the second drawing.....I've seen it said here on this board that #5 is the best they can do in round 2?

Is not the second drawing dedicated to #2 for ALL teams left?

If anyone could clarify for this dummy I'd appreciate the real scoop for Tuesday night.

If our Detroit pick (currently #15) is chosen in the lottery then it can only move up to #5, as moving up 10 spots is the limit. If our own pick (currently #11) is chosen then it can move up to #1.

The odds of our own pick getting chosen in the lottery are about 3%. The odds of the Detroit pick getting chosen are about 1%.

We could move up to #5 with the Detroit pick and #2 with our pick. We would still get our man at 2! (I can dream a little while more)

Yeah depending on which other team wins then our pick could move up to #1 or #2. Best case scenario would be we end up at #1 and #5, however extremely unlikely that is.

Edit: Actually thinking about it #2 and #5 isn’t possible. Both picks would move up 10 spots, so it would be #1 and #5.

[aslord]

sigh.

If the Blues win the first pick lottery we get first pick.
If Detroit wins the first pick lottery we get 5th pick, but the Blues pick drops to 12

If the Blues win the second pick lottery we get 2nd pick
If Detroit wins the second pick lottery we get 5th pick, but the Blues pick drops to 12

If the Blues win first pick lottery and Detroit wins the 2nd pick lottery, We get 1st and 5th
If the Blues win second pick lottery and Detroit wins first pick lottery, We get 2nd and 5th

[bluetunehead]

sigh.

If the Blues win the first pick lottery we get first pick.
If Detroit wins the first pick lottery we get 5th pick, but the Blues pick drops to 12

If the Blues win the second pick lottery we get 2nd pick
If Detroit wins the second pick lottery we get 5th pick, but the Blues pick drops to 12

If the Blues win first pick lottery and Detroit wins the 2nd pick lottery, We get 1st and 5th
If the Blues win second pick lottery and Detroit wins first pick lottery, We get 2nd and 5th

Ah yeah you’re right I was thinking both picks could move you up 10.

[DawgDad]

sigh.

If the Blues win the first pick lottery we get first pick.
If Detroit wins the first pick lottery we get 5th pick, but the Blues pick drops to 12

If the Blues win the second pick lottery we get 2nd pick
If Detroit wins the second pick lottery we get 5th pick, but the Blues pick drops to 12

If the Blues win first pick lottery and Detroit wins the 2nd pick lottery, We get 1st and 5th
If the Blues win second pick lottery and Detroit wins first pick lottery, We get 2nd and 5th

LOL, imagining the nuclear explosion that would occur if the Blues or Detroit win one of the draws!

[steve li]

sigh.

If the Blues win the first pick lottery we get first pick.
If Detroit wins the first pick lottery we get 5th pick, but the Blues pick drops to 12

If the Blues win the second pick lottery we get 2nd pick
If Detroit wins the second pick lottery we get 5th pick, but the Blues pick drops to 12

If the Blues win first pick lottery and Detroit wins the 2nd pick lottery, We get 1st and 5th
If the Blues win second pick lottery and Detroit wins first pick lottery, We get 2nd and 5th

LOL, imagining the nuclear explosion that would occur if the Blues or Detroit win one of the draws!

Or both!

[kimzey59]

I need some help here guys.

I'm trying to understand the rules and odds for the Blues and am running into some discrepancies or maybe it's just just confusion on my part.

I've seen the blues odds at #1 at 3% and 1.5%....which is it?

And I don't get why the Blues can't get the #2 slot in the second drawing.....I've seen it said here on this board that #5 is the best they can do in round 2?

Is not the second drawing dedicated to #2 for ALL teams left?

If anyone could clarify for this dummy I'd appreciate the real scoop for Tuesday night.

1- The Blues own our own first rounder(#11 pre-lottery) plus Detroit's 1st rounder(#15 pre-lottery).

2- The lottery drawing itself is not a single draw process.
Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, are placed in a lottery machine. The machine randomly expels four balls. The resulting four-number series (without regard to selection order) is matched against a chart that shows all possible combinations and the clubs to which each was assigned.
There are 1000 total possible winning combinations.
The Blues pick will have 30 possible winning combinations.
The Wing's pick will have 5 possible winning combinations.

3- The team that wins the first Drawing moves up 10 spots.
Mathematically, only the top 11 teams are eligible to get the 1st overall pick.

4- There is a "soft" re-seeding after the first drawing.
The First winner is locked into their new place(if the #12 team wins, they get the #2 pick regardless of who wins the 2nd drawing).
IF that winner is one of the 12-16 teams, the 1st overall pick is locked in for the worst team(Vancouver) also.
IF the first winner moves into the #1 spot, the worst team has to take part in the second drawing.


https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
The tankathon chart boils it down pretty well. Just remember that we own our own pick AND Detroit's pick(thank you Justin Faulk).

We'll discuss the Colorado pick(thank you Brayden Schenn) if/when they get eliminated.

[zoiks]

I hope the Blues' representative during the draft lotto drawing has Jobu with them.

[kimzey59]

I hope the Blues' representative during the draft lotto drawing has Jobu with them.

Jobu never did jack for anyone.
We'll have to do it ourself.

Hopefully Army has one last Sith Lord moment in him.

[callitwhatyouwant]

I hope the Blues' representative during the draft lotto drawing has Jobu with them.

Jobu never did jack for anyone.
We'll have to do it ourself.

Hopefully Army has one last Sith Lord moment in him.

i definitely think it would be funny to stick it to the hawks 1 last time. Hopefully army has some last good trick up his sleeve to do so.