Scherzer, Giolito, and Littell

[WaltsSuccessor]

The trio remained unsigned until Scherzer agreed to return to Toronto for one-year, $3m guarantee (with incentives to push to $10m potentially).

That leaves Giolito and Littell still available. At what point do the prices drop enough that the Cardinals throw their hat in the ring? Either would be an upgrade over Leahy or Pallante (especially Pallante) in the back end of the rotation. Littell certainly would cover valuable innings as a solid mid rotation guy that you could flip at the deadline. Gives Fitts/Mathews more time to develop and Dobbins time to get healthy. All while pushing Pallante to the pen where he belongs.

If the guarantees for either guy is around $5m, I don't see why the Cardinals wouldn't be inquiring. Such little downside to adding a veteran to this highly questionable rotation. Doesn't seem like either is going to require the financial commitment of Lynn or Gibson from 2024 at this point.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I am really interested to see what Giolito and Littell sign for. These are solid major league pitchers. They must be way over the market in what they have asked for to remain unsigned.

[WaltsSuccessor]

I am really interested to see what Giolito and Littell sign for. These are solid major league pitchers. They must be way over the market in what they have asked for to remain unsigned.

Giolito has seen his earnings potential get crushed the past few years. From 2019-2021, it sure seemed like he was destined to get PAID. Then he had a subpar 2022, looked good for the CHW in 2023, but stumbled after the trade deadline in 2023. Took a pillow deal with Boston that offseason, but had to get TJS in spring training 2024. He was solid last year but ended the season with some elbow concerns. Now he's going into 2026 ST still unsigned.

His HS buddy Mr. Flaherty has had similar issues. Fellow HSer Max Fried ended up getting paid though!

[An Old Friend]

I am really interested to see what Giolito and Littell sign for. These are solid major league pitchers. They must be way over the market in what they have asked for to remain unsigned.

Giolito has had Tommy John twice and his K-rate cratered.

He’s a bad bet in general.

[alw80]

I'd like to see what Leahy can do.

[WaltsSuccessor]

I'd like to see what Leahy can do.

Guy has a 5.51 ERA and 1.604 WHIP across 524 IP in 6 minor league seasons. He's JAG. Yes, he looked pretty decent last year. But he's going to get exposed in the rotation.

There's a reason he was a 17th round pick out of a no name college and spent 6 years in the minors trying to be a starter. He's found some success in the bullpen. Extrapolating that thinking he's magically figured out how to be SP at the MLB level is very optimistic.

[alw80]

I'd like to see what Leahy can do.

Guy has a 5.51 ERA and 1.604 WHIP across 524 IP in 6 minor league seasons. He's JAG. Yes, he looked pretty decent last year. But he's going to get exposed in the rotation.

There's a reason he was a 17th round pick out of a no name college and spent 6 years in the minors trying to be a starter. He's found some success in the bullpen. Extrapolating that thinking he's magically figured out how to be SP at the MLB level is very optimistic.

Still like to see what he can do, that's what this year is for. Pallante can go back to the pen and be a lefty specialist if you want.

[WaltsSuccessor]

I'd like to see what Leahy can do.

Guy has a 5.51 ERA and 1.604 WHIP across 524 IP in 6 minor league seasons. He's JAG. Yes, he looked pretty decent last year. But he's going to get exposed in the rotation.

There's a reason he was a 17th round pick out of a no name college and spent 6 years in the minors trying to be a starter. He's found some success in the bullpen. Extrapolating that thinking he's magically figured out how to be SP at the MLB level is very optimistic.

Still like to see what he can do, that's what this year is for. Pallante can go back to the pen and be a lefty specialist if you want.

Pallante should definitely be in the bullpen for sure. However, asking him to learn to pitch left-handed is probably asking too much.

[alw80]

I'd like to see what Leahy can do.

Guy has a 5.51 ERA and 1.604 WHIP across 524 IP in 6 minor league seasons. He's JAG. Yes, he looked pretty decent last year. But he's going to get exposed in the rotation.

There's a reason he was a 17th round pick out of a no name college and spent 6 years in the minors trying to be a starter. He's found some success in the bullpen. Extrapolating that thinking he's magically figured out how to be SP at the MLB level is very optimistic.

Still like to see what he can do, that's what this year is for. Pallante can go back to the pen and be a lefty specialist if you want.

Pallante should definitely be in the bullpen for sure. However, asking him to learn to pitch left-handed is probably asking too much.

Maybe if he learned to pitch lefty he'd get righties out.

[HorseTrader]

This is from Tim Deirkes answering a similar question. It's long, basics are Giolito's injury history and Littell isn't a strikeout guy

Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there’s a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.

In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery. He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024.

A more distant but also more comparable example was Jake Odorizzi. He’d accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season. We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range. Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn’t able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th.

We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th. When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn’t mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow. That injury ended Giolito’s season on September 23rd; he wasn’t able to make it back for the postseason. The righty professed full health in November. So why is he still unsigned?

I think it’s a combination of things with Giolito. A former first-round pick and top prospect, he performed as a front of the rotation arm for the White Sox from 2019-21. He was pedestrian but healthy from 2022-23, but I think his prior work and pedigree allowed him to get two years and $38.5MM from Boston with a player option on the second year. We considered him a wild card in making his free agent prediction and thought he might even do a little bit better.

In 2025, Giolito made it back (at least for a spring training game) from internal brace elbow surgery in less than a year, but injured his hamstring and ended up making his season debut on April 30th. After a brutal outing against the Angels on June 4th, Giolito posted a 2.51 ERA in his final 19 starts. For the first 15 of those, he averaged over six innings per, and on the surface it felt like he was back as a #3 starter who went deep into games.

But even if we cherry-pick from June 10th onward, Giolito struck out only 20.3% of batters and walked 9.7%. He was greatly aided by a .244 batting average on balls in play and a 7.9% home per flyball rate. There’s nothing exciting on his Statcast page; his expected ERA was 5.06. Throw in the late elbow injury, and it’s not shocking the market has shunned him.

It looked like Giolito might land with the Orioles, but they instead signed Chris Bassitt for one year and $18.5MM. Zac Gallen followed with a one-year deal with a present value very close to that. Bassitt, Gallen, and Giolito will all come in below our expectations, but Giolito probably needs to drop his target number below $18MM at this point.

Littell is a pitcher who we thought could land two years and $24MM as an innings guy, not unlike the deal Adrian Houser got from the Giants in mid-December. Littell is relatively young at 30, and his results can’t be argued: a 3.73 ERA since 2024, spanning 61 starts and 343 innings. Aside from Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez, no free agent starter had reached that innings total over that time, though Bassitt and Gallen were right below it. ERA-wise, Littell was ahead of those two (and Cease).

But today’s GMs like velocity and strikeouts. Littell has neither, with a strikeout rate that tumbled all the way to 17.1% this year. His control remains excellent, but there’s nothing else on his Statcast page to recommend him. He also had the second-worst home run rate in baseball among qualified starters.

Still, Littell’s situation is a little harder to parse than Giolito’s. Littell is a healthy starter with a Statcast xERA right around 4.35 over the last couple years. His problem may be that the teams whose ballparks suppress home runs went in other directions or didn’t need starting pitching.

The Pirates had an abundance. The Cardinals grabbed Dustin May as their reclamation project. The Rangers traded for MacKenzie Gore and signed Montgomery on the cheap for depth. The Royals had enough arms. The Red Sox added higher-end starters. The Giants were a great fit for Littell, but instead went for Houser and Tyler Mahle. The Marlins went for a budget option in Chris Paddack. The Twins don’t really need a low-ceiling starter. The Guardians are too thrifty. The D’Backs brought Merrill Kelly and Gallen back, as well as Mike Soroka for depth. The Padres spent big to keep Michael King and then added cheap depth with German Marquez and Griffin Canning. The Nationals went for bargains with Foster Griffin and Miles Mikolas. The White Sox took a similar approach.

Most of the Littell-type signings went for $7MM or less on a one-year deal. Even if two years and $15MM made more sense for Littell, the only aforementioned team doing that type of multiyear pact for a back of the rotation guy was the Giants with Houser.

Now, Littell will likely sign for one year, and probably has to go to a team whose ballpark plays neutral or worse for home runs. The Braves still make sense, and there’s a case for the Angels or Phillies. But as I mentioned last week, Citizens Bank Park is a pretty rough fit for Littell. Same goes for the A’s, who might have already brought in their veteran depth guy in Aaron Civale.

[WaltsSuccessor]

@HorseTrader

This also come out of MLBTR like a week ago from Steve Adams:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/ ... rters.html

Cardinals were listed a possible destination

Yes, the Cardinals are rebuilding. No, that shouldn’t stop them from opportunistically adding some veteran innings at a lower-than-expected price. If anything, it could work to their advantage. Starting pitching is always in demand at the deadline, and a Giolito or Littell on a reasonable short-term deal could hold trade appeal.

If not that, bringing in some quality innings simply lessens the need to lean too heavily on young arms before they can handle it. For those who prove they can, they’ll have another veteran mentor from which to learn.

At present, the St. Louis rotation includes Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Dustin May, Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy, who’ll be converting from a relief role. There are some notable prospects on the horizon, Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence in particular, and the Cards picked up a pair of potential plug-and-play rotation options in separate trades sending Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to Boston. Richard Fitts (Gray) and Hunter Dobbins (Contreras) both have big league experience.

The Cards have a fair number of arms already in house, but president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said in late December (already having signed May as a free agent) that the Cardinals were still on the lookout for another arm. There’s a lot of volatility on this staff, and the one free-agent pickup they’ve made (May) has the spottiest injury history of all. From a payroll perspective, they obviously have more than enough room after shedding significant portions of the Gray, Contreras and Nolan Arenado deals (plus trading Brendan Donovan‘s $5.8MM salary).

[renostl]

@HorseTrader

This also come out of MLBTR like a week ago from Steve Adams:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/ ... rters.html

Cardinals were listed a possible destination

Yes, the Cardinals are rebuilding. No, that shouldn’t stop them from opportunistically adding some veteran innings at a lower-than-expected price. If anything, it could work to their advantage. Starting pitching is always in demand at the deadline, and a Giolito or Littell on a reasonable short-term deal could hold trade appeal.

If not that, bringing in some quality innings simply lessens the need to lean too heavily on young arms before they can handle it. For those who prove they can, they’ll have another veteran mentor from which to learn.

At present, the St. Louis rotation includes Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Dustin May, Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy, who’ll be converting from a relief role. There are some notable prospects on the horizon, Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence in particular, and the Cards picked up a pair of potential plug-and-play rotation options in separate trades sending Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to Boston. Richard Fitts (Gray) and Hunter Dobbins (Contreras) both have big league experience.

The Cards have a fair number of arms already in house, but president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said in late December (already having signed May as a free agent) that the Cardinals were still on the lookout for another arm. There’s a lot of volatility on this staff, and the one free-agent pickup they’ve made (May) has the spottiest injury history of all. From a payroll perspective, they obviously have more than enough room after shedding significant portions of the Gray, Contreras and Nolan Arenado deals (plus trading Brendan Donovan‘s $5.8MM salary).

IMO Leahy and Pallante are both the kind of guys you bring in after an injury or two.
Fitts is ahead of them. Hence still isn't projectable as a SP. Mathews perhaps will shine.

IF it works that direction the rotation is Libs, MM, May, Fitts, and Dobbins vs Mathews.
There's room for Littell. Probably more room than there was for Urias.

[woofy25]

Signing one of these guys does not serve the purpose of 2026. Frankly, signing Urias doesn't either.

[renostl]

Signing one of these guys does not serve the purpose of 2026. Frankly, signing Urias doesn't either.

Don't let the health of the 2025 rotation fool us. 1500 innings is
a lot for a SP/RP that has never covered many.

McG 170 IP combined
AP 160 last year
Libs 151 last year
May 132 last year, his top.
Leahy 88 last year
Fitts 75 last year

[11WSChamps]

Signing one of these guys does not serve the purpose of 2026. Frankly, signing Urias doesn't either.

Don't let the health of the 2025 rotation fool us. 1500 innings is
a lot for a SP/RP that has never covered many.

McG 170 IP combined
AP 160 last year
Libs 151 last year
May 132 last year, his top.
Leahy 88 last year
Fitts 75 last year

The Memphis to St. Louis shuttle will be working a lot of overtime.

[WaltsSuccessor]

@HorseTrader

This also come out of MLBTR like a week ago from Steve Adams:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/ ... rters.html

Cardinals were listed a possible destination

Yes, the Cardinals are rebuilding. No, that shouldn’t stop them from opportunistically adding some veteran innings at a lower-than-expected price. If anything, it could work to their advantage. Starting pitching is always in demand at the deadline, and a Giolito or Littell on a reasonable short-term deal could hold trade appeal.

If not that, bringing in some quality innings simply lessens the need to lean too heavily on young arms before they can handle it. For those who prove they can, they’ll have another veteran mentor from which to learn.

At present, the St. Louis rotation includes Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Dustin May, Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy, who’ll be converting from a relief role. There are some notable prospects on the horizon, Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence in particular, and the Cards picked up a pair of potential plug-and-play rotation options in separate trades sending Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to Boston. Richard Fitts (Gray) and Hunter Dobbins (Contreras) both have big league experience.

The Cards have a fair number of arms already in house, but president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said in late December (already having signed May as a free agent) that the Cardinals were still on the lookout for another arm. There’s a lot of volatility on this staff, and the one free-agent pickup they’ve made (May) has the spottiest injury history of all. From a payroll perspective, they obviously have more than enough room after shedding significant portions of the Gray, Contreras and Nolan Arenado deals (plus trading Brendan Donovan‘s $5.8MM salary).

IMO Leahy and Pallante are both the kind of guys you bring in after an injury or two.
Fitts is ahead of them. Hence still isn't projectable as a SP. Mathews perhaps will shine.

IF it works that direction the rotation is Libs, MM, May, Fitts, and Dobbins vs Mathews.
There's room for Littell. Probably more room than there was for Urias.

Dobbins isn’t full healed yet from ACL surgery and Mathew’s isn’t ready yet IMO. He had a pretty rough 2025 minor league season. He needs to earn a spot still.

I think Littell would be great to provide some quality innings to give some young guys more development time in the minors.

@woofy25
The problem with the “play ALL the kids to see what you’ve got” theory is that doesn’t put them in the best position to succeed. Especially pitchers. They’re either not ready or can’t handle that workload yet. You go into a season where you’re expecting innings loads from multiple SPs that they’ve never sniffed, you’re setting up to fail or get hurt. And grind up your BP.

If Littell pitches well, he’s a hot commodity at the deadline. Get some more prospects. Then hopefully Dobbins or Mathew’s are ready for a call up. That serves 2026’s agenda perfectly.