Trading Faulk Makes No Sense

[chuckt]

What is the team's goal next year?

Logically, we have to assume they aren't tearing it all down and going for a rebuild. So they will hope to make the playoffs with a similar outlook to this season.

If you trade Faulk, what do you do with right D? Mailloux at number 2? The FA RD options are terrible.

I can't see them trading Faulk when they can just wait until next deadline and trade him for likely a similar value. Even if he has a down year next season, he's still likely to be worth a late first. So why trade him now and greatly reduce your odds of making the P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] next year?

They won't.

[Younghopp1991]

What is the team's goal next year?

Logically, we have to assume they aren't tearing it all down and going for a rebuild. So they will hope to make the playoffs with a similar outlook to this season.

If you trade Faulk, what do you do with right D? Mailloux at number 2? The FA RD options are terrible.

I can't see them trading Faulk when they can just wait until next deadline and trade him for likely a similar value. Even if he has a down year next season, he's still likely to be worth a late first. So why trade him now and greatly reduce your odds of making the P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] next year?

They won't.

That is a total assumption that faulk will bring essentially the same next year no matter what, as opposed to this season on a actual productive season. Hes also had problems putting together back to back seasons and hes getting older. Personally i have plenty of time to figure out next years replacement.

[chuckt]

DMen much weaker than Faulk's median performance bring back first round picks every year. He will likely have a worse year next season, no doubt. But the the difference between Faulk now versus Faulk with 50% retention next TDL is about a B prospect. Rentals tend to draw a high floor, and an extra year from an aging defensemen doesn't bring back large returns historically.

If the goal of the team is to make the playoffs next year, I don't think they will trade him.

[Pierre McGuire]

Makes perfect sense. His value is high, why risk a down year or injury next year. Get the value for him while it’s at the peak.
You’ve got Mailloux and Jiricek to play next year. Good chance that one of Verhoeff, Reid, or Rudolph are drafted this year. There is no need for Faulk going forward with the current state of the franchise.

[93]

DMen much weaker than Faulk's median performance bring back first round picks every year. He will likely have a worse year next season, no doubt. But the the difference between Faulk now versus Faulk with 50% retention next TDL is about a B prospect. Rentals tend to draw a high floor, and an extra year from an aging defensemen doesn't bring back large returns historically.

If the goal of the team is to make the playoffs next year, I don't think they will trade him.

The issue is that this season Faulk is one of the top D men on market now with his performance.

You skip to next season and if he is having a down year and there are other options available you aren't getting a 1st like you mention IMO

[chuckt]

Do people think Faulk will bring back more than a late 1st and a B prospect this year? How much more?

It seems this hinges on that assumption.

I believe the difference between trading Faulk now and next year (even if his performance drops), is that B prospect. Injury is of course a risk but I don't believe they will go into next season with Mailloux or a rookie Jiricek as the 2RD. I also don't see them trading more than they receive for Faulk for a 2RD or what RD on the market would even be able to fulfill that role.

The only way they trade him is if they have a plan for next year's RD. They have no idea who they will draft at this time, so it would have to be a planned trade.

[LGB73]

If we're smart and retain half, a team is getting a middle pair RD for 2 playoff runs at $3.25m cap hit. That's worth a lot more than whatever next year could bring with a lot more risk on how he performs and injury potential.

The team's goal for next year is get a lot younger by playing more of our prospects which probably means the playoffs are not likely. We need to accept that this team is farther away from being ready than last year's miracle run indicated. I personally have no expectation of them being a playoff team until 28-29 season. It could happen but I'm not concerned if it doesn't. Our current prospects (Mailloux, Jirieck, Lindstein, Stenberg, Carbonneau, Dvorksy) would all have had more time to develop and hopefully add in our 1st from this year plus some more pieces we pick up from this trade deadline to make that the season they re-emerge as being perennial playoff team.

[kimzey59]

DMen much weaker than Faulk's median performance bring back first round picks every year. He will likely have a worse year next season, no doubt. But the the difference between Faulk now versus Faulk with 50% retention next TDL is about a B prospect. Rentals tend to draw a high floor, and an extra year from an aging defensemen doesn't bring back large returns historically.

If the goal of the team is to make the playoffs next year, I don't think they will trade him.

The issue is that this season Faulk is one of the top D men on market now with his performance.

You skip to next season and if he is having a down year and there are other options available you aren't getting a 1st like you mention IMO

I'm sure there will be some re-signings that dilute the pool; but it's also a loaded RHD market next year.
Karlsson, Doughty, Faulk, Spurgeon, Zub, Carlo, Marino, Ristolainen, Carrier, Lyubushkin, Ghost, Perbix, Chatfield.
Not to mention Makar.

More supply equals less return.
If you want to capitalize on Faulk's value, you trade him now. You're not going to get nearly as much next year(less term, flooded market, probable decline in production).

And if you're worried about filling the gap this year; there are guys like dumb[ash], Valimaki and Holl buried in the minors across the League that teams would pay us to take off their hands. You can find a real(long term) replacement in the offseason.

[Army's Mom]

The bigger assumption is that the goal is playoffs next year.

Steen will be a first year GM. He's smart enough to realize he has a honeymoon period during which the team can get more rookies learning reps at the NHL level without setting the expectations so high.

Whether you or I think this is a good team victimized by circumstance this year or a bad team that road a ridiculous hot streak last year is irrelevant to the fact that the Blues have a lot of recent picks working their way up who will need playing time.

IMO we should expect some combo of Carbs, Jiricek, Lindstein to get long looks, along with Dvorsky, Snuggerud, Stenberg, and Mallioux already here. Thats a lot of youth (plus this year's first) - far too much for any GM to set the bar at "playoff team ".

[Harry S Deals]

Mailloux/Jiricek one of Verhoeff, Reid, or Rudolph i cant say yet that the Blues cant get at least the same quality from someone in this camp

[Corban84]

Not trading Faulk makes no sense.

This team is going nowhere next year. Logically, if you have expiring vets that have value and are projecting for a top 5 draft pick you trade them.

I agree this will leave a hole, but that can be filled via FA or a prospect that we don't have yet.

I'm enjoying the Olympic competition but can't wait for it to end so we get some direction!

[clemonsonroots]

Yep, lets keep aging players with short control around and not build for the future when our team is in the shittttter. Sounds like a great plan. Adam Jiricek is a rhd I believe too.

[clemonsonroots]

Mailloux/Jiricek one of Verhoeff, Reid, or Rudolph i cant say yet that the Blues cant get at least the same quality from someone in this camp

Actually, we will likely get Mckenna or Stenberg in this draft unless we get hosed in the lottery or go on a run. If we do fall back from top 2, I would rather have Carels over those guys as well as Lawrence, Malhotra or maybe Smits or Belchetz.

Right now
1 Stenberg
2 McKenna
3 Carels
4 Lawrence
5 Malhotra
6 Belchetz
7 Smits
8 Verhoeff
9 Reid
10 Rudolph

at least for me as of now

[chuckt]

I'm not advocating to keep Faulk, my point is that I'm surprised the assumption is that management will trade him.

Of course the bar won't be playoffs next year, but they will certainly want to maximize the probability of that alongside building for the future. I believe the owners place a high degree of focus on playoff revenue.

I also think the argument of keeping expired players being dumb is nonsensical, he's not expiring. That's the whole basis of my original post. Of course if he was expiring you'd have to trade him.

To me, this comes down to him being worth almost nearly the same amount if they trade him at next year's deadline as he is now, even expecting him to regress next year. Some of you disagree with that, which is fair. That list of RD will be much smaller when next season's deadline occurs. Many of those teams will be in the playoff hunt, and many of those players will be re-signed. With the cap being where it is and the number of teams in the league versus the talent available, deadline prices will remain very stable for the foreseeable future in my opinion.

[callitwhatyouwant]

I'm not advocating to keep Faulk, my point is that I'm surprised the assumption is that management will trade him.

Of course the bar won't be playoffs next year, but they will certainly want to maximize the probability of that alongside building for the future. I believe the owners place a high degree of focus on playoff revenue.

I also think the argument of keeping expired players being dumb is nonsensical, he's not expiring. That's the whole basis of my original post. Of course if he was expiring you'd have to trade him.

To me, this comes down to him being worth almost nearly the same amount if they trade him at next year's deadline as he is now, even expecting him to regress next year. Some of you disagree with that, which is fair. That list of RD will be much smaller when next season's deadline occurs. Many of those teams will be in the playoff hunt, and many of those players will be re-signed. With the cap being where it is and the number of teams in the league versus the talent available, deadline prices will remain very stable for the foreseeable future in my opinion.

trading faulk without a real plan makes no sense. I could see it happening in a dominos style scenario where they are able to get someone back who is young in that position and can play, or someone who is on a cheaper less valuable contract and has 1 year left as well. Those that think Jiricek will be ready next year are being silly. Ready for what? You think you can throw LM and Jiricek out at RHD2 RHD3 and you can field a hockey team? That's not how this works. It's already a mess just because LM and Tucker are in the lineup. The prudent move would be to keep Faulk until they know without a shadow of a doubt Jiricek is ready.

[Red7]

Man, does this place run hot and cold on Faulk. For most of the past two seasons, most fans wanted Faulk not only gone, but imprisoned and more than a few wanted him executed. Now, we have people wanting to hold onto him like he's the missing link to next year's Cup run. Right now, they can get a return nearing what they gave up for him 5 1/2 years ago. Let's not let another day pass before they move him, lest he suffer some freak accident getting out of bed.