Someone Explain Ceiling and Floor Concept

[sikeston bulldog2]

A hypothetical regarding a cap/floor system. Using Cot's year end payroll numbers for 2025 and assuming:

(1) a cap/floor where the floor is 50% of the cap
(2) that the total amount of payroll to the players cannot go down
(3) that every team above the cap would came back to exactly the cap, every team below the floor would come up to exactly the floor, and every team in-between would remain constant.

Team..........2025 payroll............payroll w/a $250 M cap and $125 M floor.....change
Dodgers.........$347 M...............................$250 M...............................-$97 M
Mets.............$339 M...............................$250 M...............................-$89 M
Yankees.........$303 M...............................$250 M...............................-$53 M
Phillies...........$293 M..............................$250 M...............................-$43 M
Blue Jays........$254 M...............................$250 M...............................-$4 M

I'll skip all of the in-between teams who stay constant.

Reds.............$118 M................................$125 M...............................+$7 M
Brewers.........$117 M................................$125 M...............................+$8 M
Nationals........$112 M................................$125 M...............................+13 M
Guardians.......$100 M................................$125 M...............................+$25 M
Pirates...........$85 M.................................$125 M...............................+$40 M
White Sox........$80 M.................................$125 M..............................+$45 M
Rays...............$79 M.................................$125 M..............................+$46 M
Athletics.........$79 M..................................$125 M..............................+$46 M
Marlins............$68 M.................................$125 M..............................+$57 M

The +/- totals up to +$1 million, so the players would be getting exactly the same amount in payroll.

In his example the top five spenders all went over 250, and none reached the floor of 125. Is that right.

[mattmitchl44]

A hypothetical regarding a cap/floor system. Using Cot's year end payroll numbers for 2025 and assuming:

(1) a cap/floor where the floor is 50% of the cap
(2) that the total amount of payroll to the players cannot go down
(3) that every team above the cap would came back to exactly the cap, every team below the floor would come up to exactly the floor, and every team in-between would remain constant.

Team..........2025 payroll............payroll w/a $250 M cap and $125 M floor.....change
Dodgers.........$347 M...............................$250 M...............................-$97 M
Mets.............$339 M...............................$250 M...............................-$89 M
Yankees.........$303 M...............................$250 M...............................-$53 M
Phillies...........$293 M..............................$250 M...............................-$43 M
Blue Jays........$254 M...............................$250 M...............................-$4 M

I'll skip all of the in-between teams who stay constant.

Reds.............$118 M................................$125 M...............................+$7 M
Brewers.........$117 M................................$125 M...............................+$8 M
Nationals........$112 M................................$125 M...............................+13 M
Guardians.......$100 M................................$125 M...............................+$25 M
Pirates...........$85 M.................................$125 M...............................+$40 M
White Sox........$80 M.................................$125 M..............................+$45 M
Rays...............$79 M.................................$125 M..............................+$46 M
Athletics.........$79 M..................................$125 M..............................+$46 M
Marlins............$68 M.................................$125 M..............................+$57 M

The +/- totals up to +$1 million, so the players would be getting exactly the same amount in payroll.

In his example the top five spenders all went over 250, and none reached the floor of 125. Is that right.

Yes, I only included teams that would have to come down to comply with the hypothetical cap ($250 M) or up to the hypothetical floor ($125 M).

[sikeston bulldog2]

A hypothetical regarding a cap/floor system. Using Cot's year end payroll numbers for 2025 and assuming:

(1) a cap/floor where the floor is 50% of the cap
(2) that the total amount of payroll to the players cannot go down
(3) that every team above the cap would came back to exactly the cap, every team below the floor would come up to exactly the floor, and every team in-between would remain constant.

Team..........2025 payroll............payroll w/a $250 M cap and $125 M floor.....change
Dodgers.........$347 M...............................$250 M...............................-$97 M
Mets.............$339 M...............................$250 M...............................-$89 M
Yankees.........$303 M...............................$250 M...............................-$53 M
Phillies...........$293 M..............................$250 M...............................-$43 M
Blue Jays........$254 M...............................$250 M...............................-$4 M

I'll skip all of the in-between teams who stay constant.

Reds.............$118 M................................$125 M...............................+$7 M
Brewers.........$117 M................................$125 M...............................+$8 M
Nationals........$112 M................................$125 M...............................+13 M
Guardians.......$100 M................................$125 M...............................+$25 M
Pirates...........$85 M.................................$125 M...............................+$40 M
White Sox........$80 M.................................$125 M..............................+$45 M
Rays...............$79 M.................................$125 M..............................+$46 M
Athletics.........$79 M..................................$125 M..............................+$46 M
Marlins............$68 M.................................$125 M..............................+$57 M

The +/- totals up to +$1 million, so the players would be getting exactly the same amount in payroll.

In his example the top five spenders all went over 250, and none reached the floor of 125. Is that right.

Yes, I only included teams that would have to come down to comply with the hypothetical cap ($250 M) or up to the hypothetical floor ($125 M).

Is this a point of issue- the top five none compliance on both ends of the scale.

[45s]

So the marlins have to give that collective of stiffs on their roster a 57 million dollar raise…

Yeah….that seems like a great idea..

[mattmitchl44]

A hypothetical regarding a cap/floor system. Using Cot's year end payroll numbers for 2025 and assuming:

(1) a cap/floor where the floor is 50% of the cap
(2) that the total amount of payroll to the players cannot go down
(3) that every team above the cap would came back to exactly the cap, every team below the floor would come up to exactly the floor, and every team in-between would remain constant.

Team..........2025 payroll............payroll w/a $250 M cap and $125 M floor.....change
Dodgers.........$347 M...............................$250 M...............................-$97 M
Mets.............$339 M...............................$250 M...............................-$89 M
Yankees.........$303 M...............................$250 M...............................-$53 M
Phillies...........$293 M..............................$250 M...............................-$43 M
Blue Jays........$254 M...............................$250 M...............................-$4 M

I'll skip all of the in-between teams who stay constant.

Reds.............$118 M................................$125 M...............................+$7 M
Brewers.........$117 M................................$125 M...............................+$8 M
Nationals........$112 M................................$125 M...............................+13 M
Guardians.......$100 M................................$125 M...............................+$25 M
Pirates...........$85 M.................................$125 M...............................+$40 M
White Sox........$80 M.................................$125 M..............................+$45 M
Rays...............$79 M.................................$125 M..............................+$46 M
Athletics.........$79 M..................................$125 M..............................+$46 M
Marlins............$68 M.................................$125 M..............................+$57 M

The +/- totals up to +$1 million, so the players would be getting exactly the same amount in payroll.

In his example the top five spenders all went over 250, and none reached the floor of 125. Is that right.

Yes, I only included teams that would have to come down to comply with the hypothetical cap ($250 M) or up to the hypothetical floor ($125 M).

Is this a point of issue- the top five none compliance on both ends of the scale.

The point is - based on the assumptions I laid out - the players, in total, would receive exactly as much money overall under a $250 M cap/$125 M floor system as they did in 2025. The money would, no doubt, end up being distributed differently among the players, but the players as a whole would get the same amount of money.

[mattmitchl44]

So the marlins have to give that collective of stiffs on their roster a 57 million dollar raise…

Yeah….that seems like a great idea..

There is probably actually a lot less injustice in it. You can figure it this way.

There was $5.28 billion that went to the players in total last year. Set aside $600 million of that (~$760,000 x 750 players) to pay every rostered player the ML minimum, regardless of production. $5.28 billion - $600 million leaves $4.68 billion.

Every year there are 1000 fWAR of production across MLB. So you could say that players should be getting ~$4.68 million per fWAR.

Miami, as a team, produced 26 fWAR last year. So their total payroll "should be":

(760,000 per player* 26 players) + ($4.68 million/fWAR * 26 fWAR) = $141 million

The Phillies, IIRC, had the highest team fWAR (51.3):

(760,000 per player* 26 players) + ($4.68 million/fWAR * 51.3 fWAR) = $260 million

So $250 million is about spot on for the most productive team.

Really only Colorado, the Angels (by $45 million), the Nationals (by $35 million), and maybe the White Sox (by $20 million) might be a bit of a wonky "overpay" at $125 million.

[ramfandan]

Looking at other leagues can provide a picture of how a potential MLB cap and floor would function.

NFL
Floor- Owners must spend average of at least 90% of the cap over a 4 year period. If they are below that, the league fines ownership the amount to take them ton90% and that $ is distributed to the players who were on the roster during the time the team was below the floor.

Cap- The NFL has a hard cap, meaning every team must be below the cap number at the start of the league year (March). The cap # fluctuates slightly each year based on league revenue.

Floor and cap are for total payroll. There are league minimums, veteran minimums for individual players, but the floor/ceiling Im describing above is for total team payroll.

Cap- The NFL has a hard cap, meaning every team must be below the cap number at the start of the league year (March). The cap # fluctuates slightly each year based on league revenue.

SLIGHTLY may be an understatement for the NFL . In 2022, NFL had $208 M cap and is projected to be $301M- $305M for 2026 so nearly roughly $100 M increase in the last four years for the NFL. If MLB players knew their cap would increase like that , they may be consider a cap too but NFL revenues , TV packages, etc. are far different than MLB

[scoutyjones2]

Good morning.

I’m kinda in bed with it. I think I gotta a handle. It’s gonna be a big deal soon, so we might as well understand the process.

My take-

Floor. Every olayer on the 26 man makes at least floor money. Nothing less.

Questions- is the floor a team event, a olayer event or are there two floors. When a player gets called up from farm. Does he get floor money.

Ceiling. Same idea. A player or team cannot go over a particular line. So many players could all make the same amount. No highest paid player anymore.

Question- how does trades affect ceilings. If you are at the ceiling team level then what:

Just a few. Thanks in advance.

One you dance on, the other you walk on

[sikeston bulldog2]

Good morning.

I’m kinda in bed with it. I think I gotta a handle. It’s gonna be a big deal soon, so we might as well understand the process.

My take-

Floor. Every olayer on the 26 man makes at least floor money. Nothing less.

Questions- is the floor a team event, a olayer event or are there two floors. When a player gets called up from farm. Does he get floor money.

Ceiling. Same idea. A player or team cannot go over a particular line. So many players could all make the same amount. No highest paid player anymore.

Question- how does trades affect ceilings. If you are at the ceiling team level then what:

Just a few. Thanks in advance.

One you dance on, the other you walk on

You know I find that quite clever. Good job sir.

[Youboughtit]

Looking at other leagues can provide a picture of how a potential MLB cap and floor would function.

NFL
Floor- Owners must spend average of at least 90% of the cap over a 4 year period. If they are below that, the league fines ownership the amount to take them ton90% and that $ is distributed to the players who were on the roster during the time the team was below the floor.

Cap- The NFL has a hard cap, meaning every team must be below the cap number at the start of the league year (March). The cap # fluctuates slightly each year based on league revenue.

Floor and cap are for total payroll. There are league minimums, veteran minimums for individual players, but the floor/ceiling Im describing above is for total team payroll.

The lowest floor % in any sport is 83% and the big problem is the cap will likely be 300m because big markets will not reduce established payroll so the floor would be $240m. This is what I want to see. Force the small markets to spend. However it will require full revenue sharing NFL model. Players will not accept a low cap or low floor % of cap and they shouldn’t.

"force the small markets to spend"

so...how are going to ensure those small markets spend wisely??

What would they spend unwisely? The problem is they are choosing large profit over creating a competitive leauge

[TheJackBurton]

Good morning.

I’m kinda in bed with it. I think I gotta a handle. It’s gonna be a big deal soon, so we might as well understand the process.

My take-

Floor. Every olayer on the 26 man makes at least floor money. Nothing less.

Questions- is the floor a team event, a olayer event or are there two floors. When a player gets called up from farm. Does he get floor money.

Ceiling. Same idea. A player or team cannot go over a particular line. So many players could all make the same amount. No highest paid player anymore.

Question- how does trades affect ceilings. If you are at the ceiling team level then what:

Just a few. Thanks in advance.

MLB has a 2026 minimum player salary of $780,000. That's unrelated to the salary cap/floor discussions that will likely surface in negotiations over the next CBA. The cap and/or floor if enacted would be at a team level. Individual salaries would vary. As for going over a hypothetical cap with a trade that's entirely TBD by negotiations.

Will the CBA holdup be for this issue- cap/floor. Or is there another huckleberry.

I think the issues of player minimums and free agency and so I will also be discussed. If this was the NBA then bringing up a player like JJW probably already have a guaranteed four year contract worth multiple millions per year. Not what a veteran would make, but exponentially higher than the rookie minimum today. Skenes would have been making 8 figures since his debut.

Players like Noot and Gorman and Libby would already be free agents in most other leagues. This idea of player control lasting longer than the average career, is one that’s going to go away sooner or later. Probably sooner. It benefits ownership much too heavily at the expense of the talent.

If it goes anything like the other leagues, there will be an entry level contract amount that every drafted player is allowed, so there's no slot money, no signing bonuses nothing of that nature which will fix players not getting drafted in the top of the draft because they are demanding massive signing bonuses. It would be a two way contract where they make a minor league salary, and it will probably vary depending on the level, and a major league salary which will be the league minimum essentially. It'll be 3-4 years, then RFA for likely 3-4 seasons, then UFA. Still gives them 8 years of control, but the minor league service starts the clock so it will force teams to bring up players younger as you don't want to waste their first 3 seasons of the contract in the minors.

Also will help prevent players going to college because they didn't get drafted as high as they expected, go to the minors, start burning up service time, and become a UFA at 26-27. Kill the international draft, get transfer agreements set up with countries or they aren't eligible to be drafted and if you choose to buy out a contract that goes against your cap number which will kill just paying more than another team.

Start eliminating a pure economic advantage, of course nothing teams can do about marketing opportunities, but get the playing field leveled.

[TheJackBurton]

Looking at other leagues can provide a picture of how a potential MLB cap and floor would function.

NFL
Floor- Owners must spend average of at least 90% of the cap over a 4 year period. If they are below that, the league fines ownership the amount to take them ton90% and that $ is distributed to the players who were on the roster during the time the team was below the floor.

Cap- The NFL has a hard cap, meaning every team must be below the cap number at the start of the league year (March). The cap # fluctuates slightly each year based on league revenue.

Floor and cap are for total payroll. There are league minimums, veteran minimums for individual players, but the floor/ceiling Im describing above is for total team payroll.

The lowest floor % in any sport is 83% and the big problem is the cap will likely be 300m because big markets will not reduce established payroll so the floor would be $240m. This is what I want to see. Force the small markets to spend. However it will require full revenue sharing NFL model. Players will not accept a low cap or low floor % of cap and they shouldn’t.

Naaa that number is going to come down drastically because forcing teams to spend that much money completely defeats the purpose of the cap. A starting amount will be a number that every team can afford to spend based on a revenue average of I'd say likely the lowest 15 teams, and the ceiling will likely be 3x that number. After a few seasons adjustments will likely be adjusted.

MLB will be different with their salary cup because there is such a massive difference in income between teams it will be difficult to establish a floor and ceiling. The floor will absolutely force teams to spend money they otherwise wouldn't have, but it will also force teams to spend far less than they want to. How you fix the situation with a team like LA where they are spending 200 million more than the majority of the league wont' be easy, and they will likely get a contract or two that will be exempt or will only count as a specific percentage against the cap, but the others will be a problem.

[Youboughtit]

Looking at other leagues can provide a picture of how a potential MLB cap and floor would function.

NFL
Floor- Owners must spend average of at least 90% of the cap over a 4 year period. If they are below that, the league fines ownership the amount to take them ton90% and that $ is distributed to the players who were on the roster during the time the team was below the floor.

Cap- The NFL has a hard cap, meaning every team must be below the cap number at the start of the league year (March). The cap # fluctuates slightly each year based on league revenue.

Floor and cap are for total payroll. There are league minimums, veteran minimums for individual players, but the floor/ceiling Im describing above is for total team payroll.

The lowest floor % in any sport is 83% and the big problem is the cap will likely be 300m because big markets will not reduce established payroll so the floor would be $240m. This is what I want to see. Force the small markets to spend. However it will require full revenue sharing NFL model. Players will not accept a low cap or low floor % of cap and they shouldn’t.

Naaa that number is going to come down drastically because forcing teams to spend that much money completely defeats the purpose of the cap. A starting amount will be a number that every team can afford to spend based on a revenue average of I'd say likely the lowest 15 teams, and the ceiling will likely be 3x that number. After a few seasons adjustments will likely be adjusted.

MLB will be different with their salary cup because there is such a massive difference in income between teams it will be difficult to establish a floor and ceiling. The floor will absolutely force teams to spend money they otherwise wouldn't have, but it will also force teams to spend far less than they want to. How you fix the situation with a team like LA where they are spending 200 million more than the majority of the league wont' be easy, and they will likely get a contract or two that will be exempt or will only count as a specific percentage against the cap, but the others will be a problem.

Here is why you’re wrong. Players and 10 owners do not want the cap at all. It is just 20 cheap owners that are demanding it. The big market teams will not cut $100m in payroll and players will not take a 50% floor. If anyone thinks a $250m cap and $150m floor is happening they are dillusional. Those 20 teams are going to have to bite the bullet to get the big markets and players to cave.

[TheJackBurton]

Looking at other leagues can provide a picture of how a potential MLB cap and floor would function.

NFL
Floor- Owners must spend average of at least 90% of the cap over a 4 year period. If they are below that, the league fines ownership the amount to take them ton90% and that $ is distributed to the players who were on the roster during the time the team was below the floor.

Cap- The NFL has a hard cap, meaning every team must be below the cap number at the start of the league year (March). The cap # fluctuates slightly each year based on league revenue.

Floor and cap are for total payroll. There are league minimums, veteran minimums for individual players, but the floor/ceiling Im describing above is for total team payroll.

The lowest floor % in any sport is 83% and the big problem is the cap will likely be 300m because big markets will not reduce established payroll so the floor would be $240m. This is what I want to see. Force the small markets to spend. However it will require full revenue sharing NFL model. Players will not accept a low cap or low floor % of cap and they shouldn’t.

Naaa that number is going to come down drastically because forcing teams to spend that much money completely defeats the purpose of the cap. A starting amount will be a number that every team can afford to spend based on a revenue average of I'd say likely the lowest 15 teams, and the ceiling will likely be 3x that number. After a few seasons adjustments will likely be adjusted.

MLB will be different with their salary cup because there is such a massive difference in income between teams it will be difficult to establish a floor and ceiling. The floor will absolutely force teams to spend money they otherwise wouldn't have, but it will also force teams to spend far less than they want to. How you fix the situation with a team like LA where they are spending 200 million more than the majority of the league wont' be easy, and they will likely get a contract or two that will be exempt or will only count as a specific percentage against the cap, but the others will be a problem.

Here is why you’re wrong. Players and 10 owners do not want the cap at all. It is just 20 cheap owners that are demanding it. The big market teams will not cut $100m in payroll and players will not take a 50% floor. If anyone thinks a $250m cap and $150m floor is happening they are dillusional. Those 20 teams are going to have to bite the bullet to get the big markets and players to cave.

Good luck getting teams that can't attract 10k to a game to spend 150 million dollars, that's not happening. 20 is more than 10, the 10 will get concessions on their current contracts but the floor isn't going to be double and in some cases triple what they are spending right now.

[mattmitchl44]

Looking at other leagues can provide a picture of how a potential MLB cap and floor would function.

NFL
Floor- Owners must spend average of at least 90% of the cap over a 4 year period. If they are below that, the league fines ownership the amount to take them ton90% and that $ is distributed to the players who were on the roster during the time the team was below the floor.

Cap- The NFL has a hard cap, meaning every team must be below the cap number at the start of the league year (March). The cap # fluctuates slightly each year based on league revenue.

Floor and cap are for total payroll. There are league minimums, veteran minimums for individual players, but the floor/ceiling Im describing above is for total team payroll.

The lowest floor % in any sport is 83% and the big problem is the cap will likely be 300m because big markets will not reduce established payroll so the floor would be $240m. This is what I want to see. Force the small markets to spend. However it will require full revenue sharing NFL model. Players will not accept a low cap or low floor % of cap and they shouldn’t.

Naaa that number is going to come down drastically because forcing teams to spend that much money completely defeats the purpose of the cap. A starting amount will be a number that every team can afford to spend based on a revenue average of I'd say likely the lowest 15 teams, and the ceiling will likely be 3x that number. After a few seasons adjustments will likely be adjusted.

MLB will be different with their salary cup because there is such a massive difference in income between teams it will be difficult to establish a floor and ceiling. The floor will absolutely force teams to spend money they otherwise wouldn't have, but it will also force teams to spend far less than they want to. How you fix the situation with a team like LA where they are spending 200 million more than the majority of the league wont' be easy, and they will likely get a contract or two that will be exempt or will only count as a specific percentage against the cap, but the others will be a problem.

Here is why you’re wrong. Players and 10 owners do not want the cap at all. It is just 20 cheap owners that are demanding it. The big market teams will not cut $100m in payroll and players will not take a 50% floor. If anyone thinks a $250m cap and $150m floor is happening they are dillusional. Those 20 teams are going to have to bite the bullet to get the big markets and players to cave.

We already did the math.

A $250 million cap and a $125 million floor basically keeps the total amount in payroll going to players even (at about $5.28 billion). Maybe the owners give them that, or something just a bit higher, and a guarantee that both the cap and floor go up by 5 percent per year for 5 years, or something like that.

But there isn't going to be a $300 million cap and a $240 million floor. Even if every team spent at the floor, that would be $7.2 billion in payroll - an almost 40% increase over 2025 - that isn't happening.

Further, the big market teams don't want the cap and floor to be too close. They want to be able to spend at the cap and keep a lot of their advantage over teams that will still choose to spend at the floor.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Looking at other leagues can provide a picture of how a potential MLB cap and floor would function.

NFL
Floor- Owners must spend average of at least 90% of the cap over a 4 year period. If they are below that, the league fines ownership the amount to take them ton90% and that $ is distributed to the players who were on the roster during the time the team was below the floor.

Cap- The NFL has a hard cap, meaning every team must be below the cap number at the start of the league year (March). The cap # fluctuates slightly each year based on league revenue.

Floor and cap are for total payroll. There are league minimums, veteran minimums for individual players, but the floor/ceiling Im describing above is for total team payroll.

The lowest floor % in any sport is 83% and the big problem is the cap will likely be 300m because big markets will not reduce established payroll so the floor would be $240m. This is what I want to see. Force the small markets to spend. However it will require full revenue sharing NFL model. Players will not accept a low cap or low floor % of cap and they shouldn’t.

Naaa that number is going to come down drastically because forcing teams to spend that much money completely defeats the purpose of the cap. A starting amount will be a number that every team can afford to spend based on a revenue average of I'd say likely the lowest 15 teams, and the ceiling will likely be 3x that number. After a few seasons adjustments will likely be adjusted.

MLB will be different with their salary cup because there is such a massive difference in income between teams it will be difficult to establish a floor and ceiling. The floor will absolutely force teams to spend money they otherwise wouldn't have, but it will also force teams to spend far less than they want to. How you fix the situation with a team like LA where they are spending 200 million more than the majority of the league wont' be easy, and they will likely get a contract or two that will be exempt or will only count as a specific percentage against the cap, but the others will be a problem.

Here is why you’re wrong. Players and 10 owners do not want the cap at all. It is just 20 cheap owners that are demanding it. The big market teams will not cut $100m in payroll and players will not take a 50% floor. If anyone thinks a $250m cap and $150m floor is happening they are dillusional. Those 20 teams are going to have to bite the bullet to get the big markets and players to cave.

We already did the math.

A $250 million cap and a $125 million floor basically keeps the total amount in payroll going to players even (at about $5.28 billion). Maybe the owners give them that, or something just a bit higher, and a guarantee that both the cap and floor go up by 5 percent per year for 5 years, or something like that.

But there isn't going to be a $300 million cap and a $240 million floor. Even if every team spent at the floor, that would be $7.2 billion in payroll - an almost 40% increase over 2025 - that isn't happening.

Further, the big market teams don't want the cap and floor to be too close. They want to be able to spend at the cap and keep a lot of their advantage over teams that will still choose to spend at the floor.

Your last sentence is ominous. Your model demonstrates well.