ESPN/Doolittle on the Cardinals

[mattmitchl44]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/479 ... l-30-teams

Win average: 71.3 (Last: 73.0, 26th)
In the playoffs: 5.2% (Last: 7.6%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)

Why the heck didn't the Cardinals get a better projection?

When is the last time the Cardinals entered a season with expectations this low? St. Louis' over/under for wins sits at 69.5. My database of consensus preseason over-unders goes back to 2007, and the lowest for the Cardinals during that span was 76.0 in 2008, when they went on to win 86 games. It's been long time since the Redbirds have been torn down to the studs like this.

With the departures of Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and others, the Cardinals' Opening Day roster won't have a hitter at least 29 years old, in terms of 2026 baseball age. The pitching staff is almost as young but at least has a couple of 30-somethings (Riley O'Brien and Ryne Stanek) for the grown-ups to glob on to. Welcome to the Chaim Bloom era.

In many ways, Bloom's overhaul of the organization is taking the Cardinals back to their Branch Rickey roots with its emphasis on depth, talent acquisition and development. After all, St. Louis is the franchise that invented the concept of the minor league system as we know it. It might be worth noting that Rickey also had a reputation for being tight-fisted, but I digress.

Although this will be Bloom's first season heading up the baseball operation, he has been at work behind the scenes for a couple of years, so 2026 doesn't necessarily represent a complete blank slate as it does for other rebuilders like Washington and Colorado. Indeed, young as the Cardinals are, they'll have a lineup full of internally developed hitters who already have at least a year of service time in the majors. There is one exception to that, and he's the player to watch: JJ Wetherholt, the 23-year-old hit machine who should be about to mount a strong NL Rookie of the Year campaign.

Elsewhere, with short-term expectations low, stagnated young talents such as Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker should get a long runway to show they are part of the new foundation. And it's a promising one: Although the Cardinals' projection is lower than it has been in a long time, their prospect rankings have surged. The rebuild in St. Louis might seem strange, but Cardinals fans might not have to endure this status for long.

[bccardsfan]

We have been discussing the fact that this year is a development year. They are not going to compete for the WS and probably not for the division or WC. If all the stars aligned, they might sniff a WC spot. Whatever. I will spend this season watching JJW become a major league player (hopefully), seeing how Winn can do when totally healthy, watching some of the young pitching, and seeing the usual Walker and Gorman drama. I suspect Bloom cuts bait with one or the other if they cannot get it together this season. The team will be on the upswing over the next couple of years. My only real disappointment is that Marmol and Blake are still here, but c'est la vie. The minor league and development systems have been revamped, and the big club is on a 2-3 season runway.... It is what it is, and at least there is some bloody direction and it feels like someone with a plan is in charge.

[Hoosier59]

Those of us who have been posting negatively about this rebuild, aren’t necessarily upset about this year’s team! I know I’m not completely anyway. It’s more about the length of time this is going to last. The highest upside players that Bloom has brought in won’t be real positive contributors for at least three years. So, maybe they’ll be competitive before 2030, but to challenge for the Division title, or make a serious run at the World Series probably takes a little longer. So, how many of the current team will be part of that?
My fear is that this going to end up being a constant thing. Just as certain players are getting into their prime, DeWitt won’t pay them and they’ll be moved for more prospects! We’ve seen how this has worked out for other teams!
Hopefully the new CBA solves some of these issues, but at what costs?

[bccardsfan]

Those of us who have been posting negatively about this rebuild, aren’t necessarily upset about this year’s team! I know I’m not completely anyway. It’s more about the length of time this is going to last. The highest upside players that Bloom has brought in won’t be real positive contributors for at least three years. So, maybe they’ll be competitive before 2030, but to challenge for the Division title, or make a serious run at the World Series probably takes a little longer. So, how many of the current team will be part of that?
My fear is that this going to end up being a constant thing. Just as certain players are getting into their prime, DeWitt won’t pay them and they’ll be moved for more prospects! We’ve seen how this has worked out for other teams!
Hopefully the new CBA solves some of these issues, but at what costs?

This is a valid concern and I certainly respect that point of view. I feel like they will pay certain young players to buy out arb years. I am sure they will consider this with JJ and Winn. Probably someone like Doyle if he actually pans out. I think this is the year to either fish or cut bait with Walker and Gorman. It remains to be seen if IH and Burley are worth keeping and locking up. That is the model though. I do think payroll will rise back to 150M plus, but not this year. You are correct in that everyone needs to see what the new CBA brings. It has to address both minimum and maximum payroll and this nonsense about deferring TONs of salary for the really high priced players. We shall see....