Fan Graphs on Baez

[zuck698]

I certainly hope the last paragraph is wrong!

7. Joshua Baez, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Dexter Southfield HS (STL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/70 50/60 50/40 45/45 55
Slow-burn developmental paths for long-levered, power-over-hit corner bats aren’t a new phenomenon, even ones inked for seven figures out of high school. But Baez still deserves specific credit as one of the most improved minor league hitters in the sport, having gone from posting Munetaka Murakami-level contact rates in High-A in 2024 to slashing .271/.374/.509 with 16 bombs and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 79 games after midseason bump to Double-A this past year.

The breakthrough came alongside substantial changes to Baez’s setup, with him moving to a more upright stance where his hand load begins above his head and follows a less circuitous path to the baseball. Where his hard contact was previously limited to pitches middle-away where he could get his long arms extended, Baez now is able to deploy his massive juice (107 mph 90th-percentile EV) to scoop and launch soft stuff that doesn’t finish, even posting an above-average contact rate on spin.

Those adjustments can’t fully address a stiffer lower half, and this is still a solidly below-average hit tool. Upper level pitchers will have a well-defined plan of attack to pepper Baez with velocity above the belt, especially on his hands. While there are a lot of 40-grade hit tools among the elite power hitters of the world, a lower order outcome for Baez’s current skill set might look more like Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤’s Cubs tenure: more than a platoon hitter, but short of an everyday weapon due to his vulnerability to riding four-seamers.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

To be honest, if his floor is a Patrick Wisdom, more than platoon player, but short of everyday starter, I'll take it. Because before last year I thought his floor was career minor leaguer, maybe cup of coffee and out of baseball in a few years.

[Jatalk]

I certainly hope the last paragraph is wrong!

7. Joshua Baez, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Dexter Southfield HS (STL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/70 50/60 50/40 45/45 55
Slow-burn developmental paths for long-levered, power-over-hit corner bats aren’t a new phenomenon, even ones inked for seven figures out of high school. But Baez still deserves specific credit as one of the most improved minor league hitters in the sport, having gone from posting Munetaka Murakami-level contact rates in High-A in 2024 to slashing .271/.374/.509 with 16 bombs and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 79 games after midseason bump to Double-A this past year.

The breakthrough came alongside substantial changes to Baez’s setup, with him moving to a more upright stance where his hand load begins above his head and follows a less circuitous path to the baseball. Where his hard contact was previously limited to pitches middle-away where he could get his long arms extended, Baez now is able to deploy his massive juice (107 mph 90th-percentile EV) to scoop and launch soft stuff that doesn’t finish, even posting an above-average contact rate on spin.

Those adjustments can’t fully address a stiffer lower half, and this is still a solidly below-average hit tool. Upper level pitchers will have a well-defined plan of attack to pepper Baez with velocity above the belt, especially on his hands. While there are a lot of 40-grade hit tools among the elite power hitters of the world, a lower order outcome for Baez’s current skill set might look more like Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤’s Cubs tenure: more than a platoon hitter, but short of an everyday weapon due to his vulnerability to riding four-seamers.

Thanks for the info. Honestly some of the jargon in the first paragraph is over my head but the last two paragraphs are both promising and concerning. Hopefully he adjusts.

Some on CT have him coming up this year. Sounds like he needs some more “seasoning”. Just more proof we are really hurting for outfielders.

[CNYFan]

Patrick Wisdom can't steal bases like Josh Baez.
Narrow take focusing on hit only.

[3dender]

To be honest, if his floor is a Patrick Wisdom, more than platoon player, but short of everyday starter, I'll take it. Because before last year I thought his floor was career minor leaguer, maybe cup of coffee and out of baseball in a few years.

Exactly.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Thanks for the info. Honestly some of the jargon in the first paragraph is over my head but the last two paragraphs are both promising and concerning. Hopefully he adjusts.

Some on CT have him coming up this year. Sounds like he needs some more “seasoning”. Just more proof we are really hurting for outfielders.

I think anyone who thinks he's going to be up this year no matter what would be in a pretty small minority. I think there is a chance he could make it up this year, but I don't think that they should rush him and I think that he should have a pretty long evaluation period at AAA.

I mean, sure, if he's tearing up AAA and playing out of his mind, you got to do what you got to do, but I don't think anyone but a small minority would expect him to be up this year for sure.

[Bushiro]

I certainly hope the last paragraph is wrong!

7. Joshua Baez, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Dexter Southfield HS (STL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/70 50/60 50/40 45/45 55
Slow-burn developmental paths for long-levered, power-over-hit corner bats aren’t a new phenomenon, even ones inked for seven figures out of high school. But Baez still deserves specific credit as one of the most improved minor league hitters in the sport, having gone from posting Munetaka Murakami-level contact rates in High-A in 2024 to slashing .271/.374/.509 with 16 bombs and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 79 games after midseason bump to Double-A this past year.

The breakthrough came alongside substantial changes to Baez’s setup, with him moving to a more upright stance where his hand load begins above his head and follows a less circuitous path to the baseball. Where his hard contact was previously limited to pitches middle-away where he could get his long arms extended, Baez now is able to deploy his massive juice (107 mph 90th-percentile EV) to scoop and launch soft stuff that doesn’t finish, even posting an above-average contact rate on spin.

Those adjustments can’t fully address a stiffer lower half, and this is still a solidly below-average hit tool. Upper level pitchers will have a well-defined plan of attack to pepper Baez with velocity above the belt, especially on his hands. While there are a lot of 40-grade hit tools among the elite power hitters of the world, a lower order outcome for Baez’s current skill set might look more like Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤’s Cubs tenure: more than a platoon hitter, but short of an everyday weapon due to his vulnerability to riding four-seamers.

How does Stanton do with fastball above the belt...he has a stiff lower half...thing is that was some of Baez's adjustments...he got more quiet at the plate

[ICCFIM2]

I certainly hope the last paragraph is wrong!

7. Joshua Baez, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Dexter Southfield HS (STL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/70 50/60 50/40 45/45 55
Slow-burn developmental paths for long-levered, power-over-hit corner bats aren’t a new phenomenon, even ones inked for seven figures out of high school. But Baez still deserves specific credit as one of the most improved minor league hitters in the sport, having gone from posting Munetaka Murakami-level contact rates in High-A in 2024 to slashing .271/.374/.509 with 16 bombs and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 79 games after midseason bump to Double-A this past year.

The breakthrough came alongside substantial changes to Baez’s setup, with him moving to a more upright stance where his hand load begins above his head and follows a less circuitous path to the baseball. Where his hard contact was previously limited to pitches middle-away where he could get his long arms extended, Baez now is able to deploy his massive juice (107 mph 90th-percentile EV) to scoop and launch soft stuff that doesn’t finish, even posting an above-average contact rate on spin.

Those adjustments can’t fully address a stiffer lower half, and this is still a solidly below-average hit tool. Upper level pitchers will have a well-defined plan of attack to pepper Baez with velocity above the belt, especially on his hands. While there are a lot of 40-grade hit tools among the elite power hitters of the world, a lower order outcome for Baez’s current skill set might look more like Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤’s Cubs tenure: more than a platoon hitter, but short of an everyday weapon due to his vulnerability to riding four-seamers.

Thanks, interesting stuff. Like everyone else, he will either adjust or he won't at the ML level. The fact that he was able to pull himself out of utter failure and look like a star at the AA level is the first step. Lets see what this year looks like in AAA before writing him off as the next Patrick Wisdom...

[CCard]

I certainly hope the last paragraph is wrong!

7. Joshua Baez, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Dexter Southfield HS (STL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/70 50/60 50/40 45/45 55
Slow-burn developmental paths for long-levered, power-over-hit corner bats aren’t a new phenomenon, even ones inked for seven figures out of high school. But Baez still deserves specific credit as one of the most improved minor league hitters in the sport, having gone from posting Munetaka Murakami-level contact rates in High-A in 2024 to slashing .271/.374/.509 with 16 bombs and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 79 games after midseason bump to Double-A this past year.

The breakthrough came alongside substantial changes to Baez’s setup, with him moving to a more upright stance where his hand load begins above his head and follows a less circuitous path to the baseball. Where his hard contact was previously limited to pitches middle-away where he could get his long arms extended, Baez now is able to deploy his massive juice (107 mph 90th-percentile EV) to scoop and launch soft stuff that doesn’t finish, even posting an above-average contact rate on spin.

Those adjustments can’t fully address a stiffer lower half, and this is still a solidly below-average hit tool. Upper level pitchers will have a well-defined plan of attack to pepper Baez with velocity above the belt, especially on his hands. While there are a lot of 40-grade hit tools among the elite power hitters of the world, a lower order outcome for Baez’s current skill set might look more like Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤’s Cubs tenure: more than a platoon hitter, but short of an everyday weapon due to his vulnerability to riding four-seamers.

LOL...all that mumbo jumbo means exactly jack. The question is can he recognize a pitch and make solid contact. They try to quantify a player with all those numbers and the beautiful thing about baseball is the smallest man on the field can be the best player. The pitcher that doesn't throw 100 mph can be more dominant that the other pitchers. Not to mention they're rating players by how they do against other players. Like the quote in major league when the coach says the player is showing some real power and the manager responds with "off of a guy that'll be bagging groceries next week!"

[An Old Friend]

I certainly hope the last paragraph is wrong!

7. Joshua Baez, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Dexter Southfield HS (STL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/70 50/60 50/40 45/45 55
Slow-burn developmental paths for long-levered, power-over-hit corner bats aren’t a new phenomenon, even ones inked for seven figures out of high school. But Baez still deserves specific credit as one of the most improved minor league hitters in the sport, having gone from posting Munetaka Murakami-level contact rates in High-A in 2024 to slashing .271/.374/.509 with 16 bombs and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 79 games after midseason bump to Double-A this past year.

The breakthrough came alongside substantial changes to Baez’s setup, with him moving to a more upright stance where his hand load begins above his head and follows a less circuitous path to the baseball. Where his hard contact was previously limited to pitches middle-away where he could get his long arms extended, Baez now is able to deploy his massive juice (107 mph 90th-percentile EV) to scoop and launch soft stuff that doesn’t finish, even posting an above-average contact rate on spin.

Those adjustments can’t fully address a stiffer lower half, and this is still a solidly below-average hit tool. Upper level pitchers will have a well-defined plan of attack to pepper Baez with velocity above the belt, especially on his hands. While there are a lot of 40-grade hit tools among the elite power hitters of the world, a lower order outcome for Baez’s current skill set might look more like Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤’s Cubs tenure: more than a platoon hitter, but short of an everyday weapon due to his vulnerability to riding four-seamers.

Thanks, interesting stuff. Like everyone else, he will either adjust or he won't at the ML level. The fact that he was able to pull himself out of utter failure and look like a star at the AA level is the first step. Lets see what this year looks like in AAA before writing him off as the next Patrick Wisdom...

It's funny, both Baez and Wisdom debuted in AA at age-22. Baez played 79 games, Wisdom 128.

Baez - 141 wRC+, .271/.374/.509 with 16 HR, 55 RBI, 34 SB; 12% walk rate, 20% strikeout rate
Wisdom - 80 wRC+, .215/.277/.367 with 14 HR, 53 RBI, 5 SB; 8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate

Candidly, I haven't had/made time to work through Fangraphs' list, yet... but this comp seems lazy AF. They're very dissimilar players.

[peterman'srealitytour]

Thanks for posting that. I had higher expectations but maybe it’s just wishful thinking on my part.

I can’t recall the source but I read a comp last season of Baez to Tommy Pham. Bigger version for sure. Again, I can’t recall the source, maybe just another poster who saw him play. If that’s what Baez becomes, sign me up.

[General]

I certainly hope the last paragraph is wrong!

7. Joshua Baez, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Dexter Southfield HS (STL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/70 50/60 50/40 45/45 55
Slow-burn developmental paths for long-levered, power-over-hit corner bats aren’t a new phenomenon, even ones inked for seven figures out of high school. But Baez still deserves specific credit as one of the most improved minor league hitters in the sport, having gone from posting Munetaka Murakami-level contact rates in High-A in 2024 to slashing .271/.374/.509 with 16 bombs and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 79 games after midseason bump to Double-A this past year.

The breakthrough came alongside substantial changes to Baez’s setup, with him moving to a more upright stance where his hand load begins above his head and follows a less circuitous path to the baseball. Where his hard contact was previously limited to pitches middle-away where he could get his long arms extended, Baez now is able to deploy his massive juice (107 mph 90th-percentile EV) to scoop and launch soft stuff that doesn’t finish, even posting an above-average contact rate on spin.

Those adjustments can’t fully address a stiffer lower half, and this is still a solidly below-average hit tool. Upper level pitchers will have a well-defined plan of attack to pepper Baez with velocity above the belt, especially on his hands. While there are a lot of 40-grade hit tools among the elite power hitters of the world, a lower order outcome for Baez’s current skill set might look more like Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤’s Cubs tenure: more than a platoon hitter, but short of an everyday weapon due to his vulnerability to riding four-seamers.

Thanks, interesting stuff. Like everyone else, he will either adjust or he won't at the ML level. The fact that he was able to pull himself out of utter failure and look like a star at the AA level is the first step. Lets see what this year looks like in AAA before writing him off as the next Patrick Wisdom...

It's funny, both Baez and Wisdom debuted in AA at age-22. Baez played 79 games, Wisdom 128.

Baez - 141 wRC+, .271/.374/.509 with 16 HR, 55 RBI, 34 SB; 12% walk rate, 20% strikeout rate
Wisdom - 80 wRC+, .215/.277/.367 with 14 HR, 53 RBI, 5 SB; 8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate

Candidly, I haven't had/made time to work through Fangraphs' list, yet... but this comp seems lazy AF. They're very dissimilar players.

You should read it again. They compare to Wisdom’s Cubs tenure, not his time in AA. Kinda like comparing Wisdom’s AAA to Baez’s A. Different time and players.

As for Baez, I was encouraged by his breakout season but he has to prove it’s repeatable. Reminds me of how so many here thought Matthews would reach the Majors last year after his 2024 season. Progression is rarely linear.

[General]

I certainly hope the last paragraph is wrong!

7. Joshua Baez, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Dexter Southfield HS (STL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/70 50/60 50/40 45/45 55
Slow-burn developmental paths for long-levered, power-over-hit corner bats aren’t a new phenomenon, even ones inked for seven figures out of high school. But Baez still deserves specific credit as one of the most improved minor league hitters in the sport, having gone from posting Munetaka Murakami-level contact rates in High-A in 2024 to slashing .271/.374/.509 with 16 bombs and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 79 games after midseason bump to Double-A this past year.

The breakthrough came alongside substantial changes to Baez’s setup, with him moving to a more upright stance where his hand load begins above his head and follows a less circuitous path to the baseball. Where his hard contact was previously limited to pitches middle-away where he could get his long arms extended, Baez now is able to deploy his massive juice (107 mph 90th-percentile EV) to scoop and launch soft stuff that doesn’t finish, even posting an above-average contact rate on spin.

Those adjustments can’t fully address a stiffer lower half, and this is still a solidly below-average hit tool. Upper level pitchers will have a well-defined plan of attack to pepper Baez with velocity above the belt, especially on his hands. While there are a lot of 40-grade hit tools among the elite power hitters of the world, a lower order outcome for Baez’s current skill set might look more like Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤’s Cubs tenure: more than a platoon hitter, but short of an everyday weapon due to his vulnerability to riding four-seamers.

How does Stanton do with fastball above the belt...he has a stiff lower half...thing is that was some of Baez's adjustments...he got more quiet at the plate

No one knows bc Stanton is always injured and rarely plays.

[An Old Friend]

I certainly hope the last paragraph is wrong!

7. Joshua Baez, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Dexter Southfield HS (STL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/70 50/60 50/40 45/45 55
Slow-burn developmental paths for long-levered, power-over-hit corner bats aren’t a new phenomenon, even ones inked for seven figures out of high school. But Baez still deserves specific credit as one of the most improved minor league hitters in the sport, having gone from posting Munetaka Murakami-level contact rates in High-A in 2024 to slashing .271/.374/.509 with 16 bombs and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 79 games after midseason bump to Double-A this past year.

The breakthrough came alongside substantial changes to Baez’s setup, with him moving to a more upright stance where his hand load begins above his head and follows a less circuitous path to the baseball. Where his hard contact was previously limited to pitches middle-away where he could get his long arms extended, Baez now is able to deploy his massive juice (107 mph 90th-percentile EV) to scoop and launch soft stuff that doesn’t finish, even posting an above-average contact rate on spin.

Those adjustments can’t fully address a stiffer lower half, and this is still a solidly below-average hit tool. Upper level pitchers will have a well-defined plan of attack to pepper Baez with velocity above the belt, especially on his hands. While there are a lot of 40-grade hit tools among the elite power hitters of the world, a lower order outcome for Baez’s current skill set might look more like Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤’s Cubs tenure: more than a platoon hitter, but short of an everyday weapon due to his vulnerability to riding four-seamers.

Thanks, interesting stuff. Like everyone else, he will either adjust or he won't at the ML level. The fact that he was able to pull himself out of utter failure and look like a star at the AA level is the first step. Lets see what this year looks like in AAA before writing him off as the next Patrick Wisdom...

It's funny, both Baez and Wisdom debuted in AA at age-22. Baez played 79 games, Wisdom 128.

Baez - 141 wRC+, .271/.374/.509 with 16 HR, 55 RBI, 34 SB; 12% walk rate, 20% strikeout rate
Wisdom - 80 wRC+, .215/.277/.367 with 14 HR, 53 RBI, 5 SB; 8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate

Candidly, I haven't had/made time to work through Fangraphs' list, yet... but this comp seems lazy AF. They're very dissimilar players.

You should read it again. They compare to Wisdom’s Cubs tenure, not his time in AA. Kinda like comparing Wisdom’s AAA to Baez’s A. Different time and players.

Reading it again makes it no better of a comp. It’s completely irrelevant, and weird.

Why is comparing a 22 year old Baez to a 29-31 year old Patrick Wisdom whose skill set was nothing similar of any relevance to you at all? You can’t draw anything from it. What value did you glean from that note?

As for Baez, I was encouraged by his breakout season but he has to prove it’s repeatable. Reminds me of how so many here thought Matthews would reach the Majors last year after his 2024 season. Progression is rarely linear.

There are a lot of people that don’t understand this. Drives me crazy

[C-Unit]

Patrick Wisdom can't steal bases like Josh Baez.
Narrow take focusing on hit only.

Baez also is a good rightfielder with a strong throwing arm

[hornetfb52]

Much better defender than Wisdom
Very much faster than Wisdom
If his floor offensively is .750 ops 20 HR 60 RBI
Yeah…I’d take that