Here's why I think the 2026 team will surprise many

[rightthinker4]

I've been saying the 2026 Team > 2025 Team all Winter.

Here's why:

I think they can shorten games to 5 - 6 inning affairs and it's the BULLPEN that will make the difference.

If they can get the ball to Svanson/1.94 ERA--O'Brien/2.06 ERA--Leahy/3.07 ERA (I keep him in the pen')--and JoJo/2.07 ERA (I'm keeping him), then they can win many low scoring games.

The BULLPEN is the key to the Cardinals having a way more competitive 2026 season than many of the naysayers believe.

Keep an eye on the pen', it's going to be THE KEY to the 2026 team surprising to the upside.

JMO

Wishful thinking.

[45s]

I think this team will surprise Rock with how bad they are….

[Hoosier59]

JJ should be able to at least duplicate the numbers that Donovan put up.
Gorman, even if he doesn’t improve should be able replicate the stats put up by last years 3rd basemen.
Winn, if healthy, should put up better numbers.
A healthy Herrera should have better stats.
Burleson should be able to repeat his numbers, if not improve upon them.
So where is the rest of the offense going to come from? Basically it’s either by incumbent players improving, or by new players beating them out! The thing is, there hasn’t been any new players brought in, either by trades or signings!
The bullpen should be strong, if it’s not completely over used. Which is an issue if the starters aren’t healthy. I still think at least one, if not two veteran starters need to be signed. That wouldn’t be needed if we knew May, Fitts, and Dobbins would be healthy, but all three are risky!

Interesting that no mention of Walker ?

I grouped him in with the “ incumbent “ players, not an omission. Any improvement by Walker and Scott is obviously a bonus!

[ScotchMIrish]

If we lose fewer than 90 games it would surprise me. The unknown is young players developing. That's our chance to be okay.

[ShakeyWalton]

I think this team will surprise Rock with how bad they are….

Yep. Not that it should be surprising.

[11WSChamps]

I've been saying the 2026 Team > 2025 Team all Winter.

Here's why:

I think they can shorten games to 5 - 6 inning affairs and it's the BULLPEN that will make the difference.

If they can get the ball to Svanson/1.94 ERA--O'Brien/2.06 ERA--Leahy/3.07 ERA (I keep him in the pen')--and JoJo/2.07 ERA (I'm keeping him), then they can win many low scoring games.

The BULLPEN is the key to the Cardinals having a way more competitive 2026 season than many of the naysayers believe.

Keep an eye on the pen', it's going to be THE KEY to the 2026 team surprising to the upside.

JMO

Team doesn't have the depth of arms to do as you believe plus Romero will be gone at the deadline if not sooner as will Leahy if performs as he did last season leaving the pen even more depleted for the last two months of the season.

Not to mention a rotation that has no proven inning eaters and numbers which in this case doesn't translate to depth except with the unproven.

Third strike is a team which will finish in the bottom third in runs scored which will tax any pitching staff let alone this one.

[Hoosier59]

I've been saying the 2026 Team > 2025 Team all Winter.

Here's why:

I think they can shorten games to 5 - 6 inning affairs and it's the BULLPEN that will make the difference.

If they can get the ball to Svanson/1.94 ERA--O'Brien/2.06 ERA--Leahy/3.07 ERA (I keep him in the pen')--and JoJo/2.07 ERA (I'm keeping him), then they can win many low scoring games.

The BULLPEN is the key to the Cardinals having a way more competitive 2026 season than many of the naysayers believe.

Keep an eye on the pen', it's going to be THE KEY to the 2026 team surprising to the upside.

JMO

Team doesn't have the depth of arms to do as you believe plus Romero will be gone at the deadline if not sooner as will Leahy if performs as he did last season leaving the pen even more depleted for the last two months of the season.

Not to mention a rotation that has no proven inning eaters and numbers which in this case doesn't translate to depth except with the unproven.

Third strike is a team which will finish in the bottom third in runs scored which will tax any pitching staff let alone this one.

Hard to dispute any of this.
For the Cardinals to win 80+ games, soooo many things will have to break their way. Things haven’t really done that in recent years.
Might I say, since Hack gate?

[ShakeyWalton]

I think they’ll win 79 to 86 games

Not trying to pick on you, but in what world do you see any possibility whatsoever in 86 wins?! The outfield is pathetic offensively. The infield isn’t far behind, and the starters are a massive wild card. 86 wins would be the single greatest season in STL history with this group. C’mon man…

[JuanAgosto]

75 wins if a lot goes right. That means Gorman hits .250 with 30 hrs, Wetherholt is a top 3 ROY candidate, Liberatore becomes a 15 game winner, and one of the acquired pitchers has a good year.

[hugeCardfan]

60 to 80 wins.... Anything is possible. I don't care. I'm much more interested in which starters can nail down a rotation spot this year. As a minimum, I want to see Liberatore giving us 150 plus quality innings. McGreevy 140 plus. 130 plus from May and Fitts would be a godsend. 110 plus from Leahy. Who will emerge to fill in the shortcoming? Mathews, Graceffo, Pallante, Curtis Taylor?

I want to see JJ make a ROY run. I want to see more offense from a healthier Winn. I want to see a .30 to .50 point OPS jump from Burleson. Can Gorman become a credible infielder with 30 HR power? Who will emerge as a credible infield utility player? Saggesse...Fermin?

Will Walker find traction? Can Lars be healthy and productive? Will Scott and/or Church hit?

Will Crooks and Herrera begin to assert themselves as bonafide catchers?

These are the issues that are actually important. Not, how many wins in 2026.

[General]

I've been saying the 2026 Team > 2025 Team all Winter.

Here's why:

I think they can shorten games to 5 - 6 inning affairs and it's the BULLPEN that will make the difference.

If they can get the ball to Svanson/1.94 ERA--O'Brien/2.06 ERA--Leahy/3.07 ERA (I keep him in the pen')--and JoJo/2.07 ERA (I'm keeping him), then they can win many low scoring games.

The BULLPEN is the key to the Cardinals having a way more competitive 2026 season than many of the naysayers believe.

Keep an eye on the pen', it's going to be THE KEY to the 2026 team surprising to the upside.

JMO

One problem with that argument, at least as it relates to Y/Y improvement in team performance, is that the 2025 Cardinals bullpen was already pretty decent.

2025 Cardinals Relief Pitching (MLB rank)
fWAR: 5.1 (9th)
ERA: 3.74 (10th)
FIP: 3.65 (3rd)
xFIP: 3.96 (4th)
ERA-: 91 (11th)
FIP-: 90 (5th)
xFIP-: 96 (4th)

The Cardinals were 78-84 (x-W/L: 74-88) last year with basically a top-10 (or better) bullpen. So you're going to have to find other sources of "surprise to the upside" beyond the bullpen to have a "way more competitive 2026."

The first thing I thought when I saw this thread was that the bullpen was actually pretty good last year so thank you for putting the numbers to it.

I also don’t think the bullpen will be as good as last year.

[BleedingBleu]

Great, our bullpen will either be stressed by July because neither the Starters nor Offense will provide much support - OR - they’ll be the least stressed because they’ll constantly see 4-0 deficits by the Start of the 5th Inning and therefore the most relaxed.

This team will absolutely suck. The only hope is to see a pulse from Walker & Gorman, improvement in Victor Scott & Liberatore, and maybe something from a parade of Pitching Prospects before they become tragic warnings of overhype (Tekoah Roby, Graceffo, Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews, Cooper Hjerpes)

Other areas of intrigue are maybe Joshua Baez, Zack Thompson, Ivan Herrera… maybe Leahy?

[rage-STL]

60 to 80 wins.... Anything is possible. I don't care. I'm much more interested in which starters can nail down a rotation spot this year. As a minimum, I want to see Liberatore giving us 150 plus quality innings. McGreevy 140 plus. 130 plus from May and Fitts would be a godsend. 110 plus from Leahy. Who will emerge to fill in the shortcoming? Mathews, Graceffo, Pallante, Curtis Taylor?

I want to see JJ make a ROY run. I want to see more offense from a healthier Winn. I want to see a .30 to .50 point OPS jump from Burleson. Can Gorman become a credible infielder with 30 HR power? Who will emerge as a credible infield utility player? Saggesse...Fermin?

Will Walker find traction? Can Lars be healthy and productive? Will Scott and/or Church hit?

Will Crooks and Herrera begin to assert themselves as bonafide catchers?

These are the issues that are actually important. Not, how many wins in 2026.

Yep, I’m looking forward to watching all of these storylines unfold and take shape. I’m not missing the players that were dealt; this roster needed a shake up and reorganizing in the worst way.

The good news is you don’t need a big contract and a billboard in Times Square to be a good baseball player. All these guys have been playing this game since they were kids and have reached the majors. Play hard, clean, fundamental baseball and good things happen. Opportunities abound for everyone involved.

[CCard]

I've been saying the 2026 Team > 2025 Team all Winter.

Here's why:

I think they can shorten games to 5 - 6 inning affairs and it's the BULLPEN that will make the difference.

If they can get the ball to Svanson/1.94 ERA--O'Brien/2.06 ERA--Leahy/3.07 ERA (I keep him in the pen')--and JoJo/2.07 ERA (I'm keeping him), then they can win many low scoring games.

The BULLPEN is the key to the Cardinals having a way more competitive 2026 season than many of the naysayers believe.

Keep an eye on the pen', it's going to be THE KEY to the 2026 team surprising to the upside.

JMO

No doubt the pen is very important. I expect that Romero will be traded though. Then you've got Roycroft and that other stiff I can't remember. So, it could be good and it could be not so good.

[Absolut]

Looking forward to the pearl clutching all season from the what is happening crew.

[rockondlouie]

I've been saying the 2026 Team > 2025 Team all Winter.

Here's why:

I think they can shorten games to 5 - 6 inning affairs and it's the BULLPEN that will make the difference.

If they can get the ball to Svanson/1.94 ERA--O'Brien/2.06 ERA--Leahy/3.07 ERA (I keep him in the pen')--and JoJo/2.07 ERA (I'm keeping him), then they can win many low scoring games.

The BULLPEN is the key to the Cardinals having a way more competitive 2026 season than many of the naysayers believe.

Keep an eye on the pen', it's going to be THE KEY to the 2026 team surprising to the upside.

JMO

Well Rock, they are also going to have to score some runs and have starters that can go 6 innings most days and not put them out of the game by the third inning. They should have pretty good D up the middle. The corners and C may be suspect. I look forward to watching JJW debut and to seeing what sort of rotation they will have. Also to seeing if Walker or Gorman can salvage their careers, if IH and Burely can improve, if Winn will improve with his knee not barking, etc.... I suspect around .500 if things go well, and 70-75 wins if they don't.... but what do I know..?

Which is why I highlighted low scoring games.

Not necessarily 6 innings most days but into the 6th would be sufficient.