Comp Picks Alters 2026 Draft Strategy, Dramatically

[Melville]

Bloom just mentioned in his press conference how the Donovan deal would not have happened without the inclusion of the added draft picks.
They were important part of the trade.

I don't know if the average Cardinals fan realizes how important this was, D. Gould said on 101.1 that it was Bloom's strong contacts w/TB that helped make it happen.

That added money is HUGE!

No, it really isn't.
Look at the results of the 2020 MLB draft, nearly 6 years ago, as an example.
Of the top 100 picks, exactly 3 have appeared in an MLB all-star game.
Crochet (#11)
Crow-Armstrong (#19)
Westburg (#30)
At least 1/3 of those 100 picks have never made it to MLB or have already arrived and been released.
Another 1/3 or more will never have productive MLB careers.
That's simply the reality of how MLB drafts work.
Let's look at some names STL fans should be familiar with.
Walker (#21) and currently struggling to stay in MLB.
Winn (#54) is very good MLB defensive SS.
Hence (#63) complete waste of a pick so far.
Burleson (#70) starting 1b with slightly below average production for the position but remaining upside.
Prater (#93) out of organized baseball
Roby (#86) never reached MLB, averaged 13 appearances per minor league season, currently out with TJ surgery until sometime in2027.
Jordan (#89) reached AAA in 2025.
7 of the top 89 picks were selected or later acquired by STL.
Exactly 2 of those 7 (Winn, Burleson) look like MLB starting players - and one of those 2 was a complete surprise to the Cardinals.
3 are huge question marks 5+ years later and the odds of success as a solid starting MLB player at this point are strongly against them.
2 are either out of baseball or derailed by multiple injuries.
For the Cardinals, that is a 29% success rate at finding a solid MLB starting player and a 0% success rate at finding a star player, from among the first 89 picks - and the 2020 draft was considered an unusually strong one for them.
And an added couple of million dollars would not have changed that one bit.
FACT is, the draft is, at best, a complete crapshoot every year outside of the top dozen or so picks.

Ha!

Better to keep silent than to post and show you missed the boat here melvin.

Using FAILED picks by MO & his GANG as your proof is super weak.

While the draft was certainly a cr ap shoot for Mo and his crowd, smart drafting is exactly the way this team will get back to being playoff relevant and exactly why Bloom (and his hires) was/were brought on board.

There's a new Sheriff in town mel, and his name is C. Bloom.......not Mo.

(And having the 2nd most bonus pool money will allow them to take some big shots that could payoff big time)

Two of those currently failed picks from 2020 were made by other organizations - not Mo.
One by Bloom's former organization.
Fact is, unless a team has an extreme top level pick (top 10) the odds of landing a "star" are long.
Perfect example above - as all my examples are.
7 players picked in the top 89 in 2000 ended up in the STL organization.
2 solid players.
Other failed so far.
Zero stars.
That is the reality of how the draft works.
Fans need to understand that.

Wow, a whole two in your example....ok

The odds are indeed long mel which is why it's BETTER to have as many picks as you can and as much bonus money as you can to increase those odds.

Now if you want to tell me BDWJr is going to open his wallet and increase payroll to $250+M, then I'm all in on buying established major league stars over trying to find them via the draft!

But of course, that isn't happening and in fact he's sliced that payroll to under $100M.

That's why smart drafting is exactly the way this team will get back to being playoff relevant and exactly why Bloom (and his hires) was/were brought on board.

(BTW just for fun you said, "..unless a team has an extreme top level pick (top 10) the odds of landing a "star" are long... what round was Albert Pujols drafted in? )

Actually, 100 examples.
5+ years after the top 100 prospects were drafted by MLB, 3 have appeared in an ASG.
97 out of 100 have not.
Of those 3 with an ASG appearance, perhaps 1 currently profiles as a "star".
And 2020 was considered deep and quality draft.
STL drafted or acquired 7 of the top 89.
Zero stars.
2 solid but rather average starters.
Again, the idea that an organization can draft its way to multiple start players is extremely far-fetched.
Even your own example supports the truth I am sharing - all of MLB (and not team more so than the Cardinals) was shocked at what Pujols became - after all, every single team in MLB passed on him a combined 400+ teams.
Crapshoot.
You proved my point.

[craviduce]

we should NEVER use the 2020 draft as a reference. 6 games of College games, zero for most High Schoolers...before it all shut down b/c of CoVid.

I'm not sure JW would go in the first round if it were a full season.

Weird 5 round draft where they scouts didn't know what they had.

Pick another draft besides the 2020 for you points....imo

[Melville]

we should NEVER use the 2020 draft as a reference. 6 games of College games, zero for most High Schoolers...before it all shut down b/c of CoVid.

I'm not sure JW would go in the first round if it were a full season.

Weird 5 round draft where they scouts didn't know what they had.

Pick another draft besides the 2020 for you points....imo

The Cardinals have crowed for the past 5 years about the 2020 draft.
They believe it was their most successful in quite some time - and I was merely (correctly, of course) pointing out that even a draft proclaimed as a huge win by the franchise has produced very middling results.

[Ozziesfan41]

we should NEVER use the 2020 draft as a reference. 6 games of College games, zero for most High Schoolers...before it all shut down b/c of CoVid.

I'm not sure JW would go in the first round if it were a full season.

Weird 5 round draft where they scouts didn't know what they had.

Pick another draft besides the 2020 for you points....imo

The Cardinals have crowed for the past 5 years about the 2020 draft.
They believe it was their most successful in quite some time - and I was merely (correctly, of course) pointing out that even a draft proclaimed as a huge win by the franchise has produced very middling results.

Well when your development system has been gutted by an idiot like Mo you aren’t going to be successful at producing quality players from the raw players like Gorman and walker. All you are going to successfully produce are guys like Donovan who is a baseball rat and pretty much developed himself. That’s why walker made it to the majors with a swing that was never going to work successfully instead of it not being fixed in the minors it’s why Herrera made it to the majors being awful at catching no one was developing them

[Cardinals1964]

The risks though with HS.

Jordan Walker
Jack Flaherty

I’d love to have a Flaherty in the draft.
Walker TBD.

[Cardinals1964]

we should NEVER use the 2020 draft as a reference. 6 games of College games, zero for most High Schoolers...before it all shut down b/c of CoVid.

I'm not sure JW would go in the first round if it were a full season.

Weird 5 round draft where they scouts didn't know what they had.

Pick another draft besides the 2020 for you points....imo

The Cardinals have crowed for the past 5 years about the 2020 draft.
They believe it was their most successful in quite some time - and I was merely (correctly, of course) pointing out that even a draft proclaimed as a huge win by the franchise has produced very middling results.

Didn’t that draft give us a Gold Glive SS and Burleson? Not a bad draft. That’s enormous for a poor judge of talent like Mo.

[Melville]

we should NEVER use the 2020 draft as a reference. 6 games of College games, zero for most High Schoolers...before it all shut down b/c of CoVid.

I'm not sure JW would go in the first round if it were a full season.

Weird 5 round draft where they scouts didn't know what they had.

Pick another draft besides the 2020 for you points....imo

The Cardinals have crowed for the past 5 years about the 2020 draft.
They believe it was their most successful in quite some time - and I was merely (correctly, of course) pointing out that even a draft proclaimed as a huge win by the franchise has produced very middling results.

Well when your development system has been gutted by an idiot like Mo you aren’t going to be successful at producing quality players from the raw players like Gorman and walker. All you are going to successfully produce are guys like Donovan who is a baseball rat and pretty much developed himself. That’s why walker made it to the majors with a swing that was never going to work successfully instead of it not being fixed in the minors it’s why Herrera made it to the majors being awful at catching no one was developing them

Certainly a fair and accurate critique of STL.
But it remains true that 97 of the top 100 players selected by all teams that year have never appeared in an ASG.
Again, almost every year, outside of the top 10-12 players selected, the odds of finding a true star are very slim.
Less than 3-4%.

[Melville]

we should NEVER use the 2020 draft as a reference. 6 games of College games, zero for most High Schoolers...before it all shut down b/c of CoVid.

I'm not sure JW would go in the first round if it were a full season.

Weird 5 round draft where they scouts didn't know what they had.

Pick another draft besides the 2020 for you points....imo

The Cardinals have crowed for the past 5 years about the 2020 draft.
They believe it was their most successful in quite some time - and I was merely (correctly, of course) pointing out that even a draft proclaimed as a huge win by the franchise has produced very middling results.

Didn’t that draft give us a Gold Glive SS and Burleson? Not a bad draft. That’s enormous for a poor judge of talent like Mo.

STL has or acquired 7 of the top 89 players picked.
You are correct.
5+ years later, 2 have established themselves as solid MLB players.
The rest failed or are stalled.
As you say, that is "not a bad draft" - and shows very well how extremely rare it is to find a true star when drafting outside the top 10-12.
Landing on a couple of solid players every now and then will not come anywhere close to transforming a roster.
Those 2 are nice players.
Do you think a championship capable team could be built around them?
Of course not.
Bloom knows that as well.
He is not stupid.
He can amass all the top 20-100 picks that he wants - and that strategy alone will never truly rebuild the franchise.
A collection of long shots in the minor leagues = one aggregate long shot.

[Cardinals1964]

we should NEVER use the 2020 draft as a reference. 6 games of College games, zero for most High Schoolers...before it all shut down b/c of CoVid.

I'm not sure JW would go in the first round if it were a full season.

Weird 5 round draft where they scouts didn't know what they had.

Pick another draft besides the 2020 for you points....imo

The Cardinals have crowed for the past 5 years about the 2020 draft.
They believe it was their most successful in quite some time - and I was merely (correctly, of course) pointing out that even a draft proclaimed as a huge win by the franchise has produced very middling results.

Didn’t that draft give us a Gold Glive SS and Burleson? Not a bad draft. That’s enormous for a poor judge of talent like Mo.

STL has or acquired 7 of the top 89 players picked.
You are correct.
5+ years later, 2 have established themselves as solid MLB players.
The rest failed or are stalled.
As you say, that is "not a bad draft" - and shows very well how extremely rare it is to find a true star when drafting outside the top 10-12.
Landing on a couple of solid players every now and then will not come anywhere close to transforming a roster.
Those 2 are nice players.
Do you think a championship capable team could be built around them?
Of course not.
Bloom knows that as well.
He is not stupid.
He can amass all the top 20-100 picks that he wants - and that strategy alone will never truly rebuild the franchise.
A collection of long shots in the minor leagues = one aggregate long shot.

You’re right. The Top 100 picks in 2020 produced 3 AS. The second 100 produced 2.

[Carp4Cy]

we should NEVER use the 2020 draft as a reference. 6 games of College games, zero for most High Schoolers...before it all shut down b/c of CoVid.

I'm not sure JW would go in the first round if it were a full season.

Weird 5 round draft where they scouts didn't know what they had.

Pick another draft besides the 2020 for you points....imo

The Cardinals have crowed for the past 5 years about the 2020 draft.
They believe it was their most successful in quite some time - and I was merely (correctly, of course) pointing out that even a draft proclaimed as a huge win by the franchise has produced very middling results.

Well when your development system has been gutted by an idiot like Mo you aren’t going to be successful at producing quality players from the raw players like Gorman and walker. All you are going to successfully produce are guys like Donovan who is a baseball rat and pretty much developed himself. That’s why walker made it to the majors with a swing that was never going to work successfully instead of it not being fixed in the minors it’s why Herrera made it to the majors being awful at catching no one was developing them

That lack of development is as much on the MLB coaching staff that is still here as on the minors that Mo decimated. Gorman, Walker and others all GOT to the majors and even had some initial success before going backwards under Oli and hit string of hitting coaches. Several others have never improved like they were probably capable of under this MLB staff either.

Donny was an anomoly as he was smart enough to teach himself how to hit. mabye Burly is too. But we can't expect all these young guys to hit without help

[BleedingBleu]

As already reported, Bloom was able to receive two Top 100 Picks (#68 & #72) in the upcoming Draft to go along with the #13 pick the wet-fart for a Draft Lottery produced and the #32 pick via Competitive Balance A.

Prior to the deal, the Cardinals had the 8th highest Signing Pool allotment at ~$13.7M.

1 - Tampa Bay Rays: $19,590,500
2 - Pittsburgh Pirates: $18,592,800
3 - Chicago White Sox: $17,090,000
4 - Minnesota Twins: $16,410,400
5 - Kansas City Royals: $15,505,000
6 - Atlanta Braves: $15,415,700
7 - Colorado Rockies: $15,103,600
8 - St. Louis Cardinals: $13,741,900
9 - San Francisco Giants: $13,674,500
10 - Athletics: $13,399,500

For the 2025 Draft, the #68 & #72 Picks added about ~$2.4M to the team’s draft pool; which would move the Cardinals into the Top 5 for Draft Pool Allotment.
68. Brewers: $1,254,400
72. Cardinals: $1,145,900

This means they’ll have almost $2M more to spend on Draft Picks then they had last season when they had the 7th Highest at a combined $14.2M and the #5 Pick (Slotted at $8.1M). Hopefully, the Cardinals will see some high value HS players drop into their loving arms at #13, because they are ripe to take advantage of such good fortunes.

Where the Draft Is Headed Next: Money, Models, and Development
The 2026 MLB Draft is about more than just the players selected. It’s a pivotal moment in how teams build their future. Over-slot bonuses will continue to be a major tool in a team’s arsenal. As teams get better at scouting, data analytics, and player development, the draft will become an even more dynamic part of how organizations approach the long-term build.

The teams that will succeed in 2026 are the ones that balance financial risk with talent evaluation. In the years to come, the draft will continue to evolve, and front offices will have to stay one step ahead of the changes.

Some of you might remember the 2025 Brewers Draft Strategy; which emphasized high-upside, high school talent. They ended up selecting 12 high school players, with a significant chunk of those prep players on Day 2.

The 2025 Brewers had similar Pick Slotting, but far less money allotment (~13.1M). Hopefully, Bloom’s recent investments in Jupiter, funneling cash towards their new Pitching Academy and Player Development, will allow the Cardinals to leverage these compensation picks to acquire loads of high-end HS Talent in the 2026 Draft.

Get those scouts out to the HS Diamonds!

awesome post, BB...I don't like doing this, but I've been preaching/talking about the Brewers unconventional drafting style for the last 2 or 3 seasons. It's chaotic, and it would drive me nuts, but they've doing well with it, while mixing in good hitting, albeit soft on fielding, college players. Couple that strat with their impressive DSL finds....I'm starting to think their developmental strats are the best in the league, or at least rivaling the Dodgers.

anyways, thoroughly enjoyed the read. I'd like a really good college bat with the 13th pick, and then go crazy with high upside Prep Stars....sign who you can...throw as much money as you can at them, too. I don't mind if it's more than what we offer the 13th pick...and I don't mind if we don't sign 5 or 6 players, like the Brewers always fail to do....they do come away with 5 highend, high upside Prep Picks, so it's a win for them anyways.

No doubt this year’s Draft Thread will be the most interesting, yet!

[rockondlouie]

Bloom just mentioned in his press conference how the Donovan deal would not have happened without the inclusion of the added draft picks.
They were important part of the trade.

I don't know if the average Cardinals fan realizes how important this was, D. Gould said on 101.1 that it was Bloom's strong contacts w/TB that helped make it happen.

That added money is HUGE!

No, it really isn't.
Look at the results of the 2020 MLB draft, nearly 6 years ago, as an example.
Of the top 100 picks, exactly 3 have appeared in an MLB all-star game.
Crochet (#11)
Crow-Armstrong (#19)
Westburg (#30)
At least 1/3 of those 100 picks have never made it to MLB or have already arrived and been released.
Another 1/3 or more will never have productive MLB careers.
That's simply the reality of how MLB drafts work.
Let's look at some names STL fans should be familiar with.
Walker (#21) and currently struggling to stay in MLB.
Winn (#54) is very good MLB defensive SS.
Hence (#63) complete waste of a pick so far.
Burleson (#70) starting 1b with slightly below average production for the position but remaining upside.
Prater (#93) out of organized baseball
Roby (#86) never reached MLB, averaged 13 appearances per minor league season, currently out with TJ surgery until sometime in2027.
Jordan (#89) reached AAA in 2025.
7 of the top 89 picks were selected or later acquired by STL.
Exactly 2 of those 7 (Winn, Burleson) look like MLB starting players - and one of those 2 was a complete surprise to the Cardinals.
3 are huge question marks 5+ years later and the odds of success as a solid starting MLB player at this point are strongly against them.
2 are either out of baseball or derailed by multiple injuries.
For the Cardinals, that is a 29% success rate at finding a solid MLB starting player and a 0% success rate at finding a star player, from among the first 89 picks - and the 2020 draft was considered an unusually strong one for them.
And an added couple of million dollars would not have changed that one bit.
FACT is, the draft is, at best, a complete crapshoot every year outside of the top dozen or so picks.

Ha!

Better to keep silent than to post and show you missed the boat here melvin.

Using FAILED picks by MO & his GANG as your proof is super weak.

While the draft was certainly a cr ap shoot for Mo and his crowd, smart drafting is exactly the way this team will get back to being playoff relevant and exactly why Bloom (and his hires) was/were brought on board.

There's a new Sheriff in town mel, and his name is C. Bloom.......not Mo.

(And having the 2nd most bonus pool money will allow them to take some big shots that could payoff big time)

Two of those currently failed picks from 2020 were made by other organizations - not Mo.
One by Bloom's former organization.
Fact is, unless a team has an extreme top level pick (top 10) the odds of landing a "star" are long.
Perfect example above - as all my examples are.
7 players picked in the top 89 in 2000 ended up in the STL organization.
2 solid players.
Other failed so far.
Zero stars.
That is the reality of how the draft works.
Fans need to understand that.

Wow, a whole two in your example....ok

The odds are indeed long mel which is why it's BETTER to have as many picks as you can and as much bonus money as you can to increase those odds.

Now if you want to tell me BDWJr is going to open his wallet and increase payroll to $250+M, then I'm all in on buying established major league stars over trying to find them via the draft!

But of course, that isn't happening and in fact he's sliced that payroll to under $100M.

That's why smart drafting is exactly the way this team will get back to being playoff relevant and exactly why Bloom (and his hires) was/were brought on board.

(BTW just for fun you said, "..unless a team has an extreme top level pick (top 10) the odds of landing a "star" are long... what round was Albert Pujols drafted in? )

Actually, 100 examples.
5+ years after the top 100 prospects were drafted by MLB, 3 have appeared in an ASG.
97 out of 100 have not.
Of those 3 with an ASG appearance, perhaps 1 currently profiles as a "star".
And 2020 was considered deep and quality draft.
STL drafted or acquired 7 of the top 89.
Zero stars.
2 solid but rather average starters.
Again, the idea that an organization can draft its way to multiple start players is extremely far-fetched.
Even your own example supports the truth I am sharing - all of MLB (and not team more so than the Cardinals) was shocked at what Pujols became - after all, every single team in MLB passed on him a combined 400+ teams.
Crapshoot.
You proved my point.

No I didn't prove anything for you but I did prove my point disproving your statement that ".."..unless a team has an extreme top level pick (top 10) the odds of landing a "star"" w/the Albert example.

But we're on the same page in the sense that I've ALWAYS said you can't win a WS with all homegrown (re: drafted) players.

Again if you tell me BDWJr is going to open his wallet and increase payroll to $250+M, then I'm all in on buying established major league stars over trying to find them via the draft!

And finally your "examples" rest of MO's DRAFTS and (non) development, we'll have to wait and see how C. Bloom and his guys do.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Drafting a winning team for profit. The Cardinal Way. On sale at your local Barnes and Noble in the clearance isle. The true definition of unrealized gains, draft picks. Takes years to get them to the majors and productive (if they ever produce at all) then when they hit arbitration you sell them to a contender and start all over again. Sell the base on this perpetual "rebuilding" and pocket the cash. So smart only a billionaire would do it.

How much did they win the last decade with the midmarket FA “splurge” strategy?

Well... Cherry picking the time length doesn't look great. They did make the playoffs in 2022 and if not for the blow up of their closer Helsley, they in all almost assuredly would've have won game one. But this model did produce two World champions and numerous playoff games. But you go ahead with your story.

It could be argued the model itself was fine, but the backend decision making derailed it. Trading the wrong players and betting on the bad ones…Alcantara, Gallen, Arozarena, Garcia. Poor free agent signings…Fowler, Leake, several relievers.

Any model will eventually culminate in key decisions, and if you consistently choose poorly, the “model” will fail.

[CCard]

Drafting a winning team for profit. The Cardinal Way. On sale at your local Barnes and Noble in the clearance isle. The true definition of unrealized gains, draft picks. Takes years to get them to the majors and productive (if they ever produce at all) then when they hit arbitration you sell them to a contender and start all over again. Sell the base on this perpetual "rebuilding" and pocket the cash. So smart only a billionaire would do it.

How much did they win the last decade with the midmarket FA “splurge” strategy?

Well... Cherry picking the time length doesn't look great. They did make the playoffs in 2022 and if not for the blow up of their closer Helsley, they in all almost assuredly would've have won game one. But this model did produce two World champions and numerous playoff games. But you go ahead with your story.

It could be argued the model itself was fine, but the backend decision making derailed it. Trading the wrong players and betting on the bad ones…Alcantara, Gallen, Arozarena, Garcia. Poor free agent signings…Fowler, Leake, several relievers.

Any model will eventually culminate in key decisions, and if you consistently choose poorly, the “model” will fail.

True enough. Decisions can definitely derail any system. No doubt the Ozuna trade misfired badly. Jettisoning Aroz was a bad call too. But at the time I was all for the Ozuna trade. Who wouldn't want to add a 30 homerun all-star after all? And I understand the infatuation with TO. All the talent in the world but just could not stay on the field. In hindsight they should have given Aroz more playing time for sure. It was a crazy time and then the Schildt firing and debacle. I was actually for the Fowler deal. We were starved for help and he could play CF. In hindsight I was wrong on that signing. I was never on board with Leake. He was at best an innings eater that was never going to dominate a game. You're right though, these decisions make up wins and losses. Most teams have basically the same systems in place, but the decisions make the road.