"Top 5" not represented well in current NHL goal leaders

[Harry S Deals]

38 — Nathan MacKinnon (1st)
34 — Connor McDavid (1st)
30 — Jason Robertson (39th)
30 — Cole Caufield (15th)
30 — Morgan Geekie (67th)
30 — Alex Debrincat (39th)
29 — Kirill Kaprizov (135th)
29 — Matt Boldy (12th)
28 — Tage Thompson (26th)
28 — Brock Nelson (30th)
28 — Wyatt Johnston (23rd)

Only two scorers Top 5, no other Top 10s only 2, Top 15 what gives? Do you mean to say you can draft quality throughout an NHL draft?

[ManitobaBlues]

Alex Debrincat (39th) drafted by Chicago Blackhawk - Round 2 #39 overall 2016 NHL Entry Draft...Blues picked Kyrou over Alex Debrincat that year.

[MandatoryDenial]

Can you draft a quality player, yes. Are you likely to develop an elite player who can take over a game by themselves, no. You need high level picks for that. This is what I want for us which is why I am concerned that the lack of movement will cause us to win meaningless games, we will take ourselves out of lottery contention and then fail to draft that elite talent we are direly needing. I have no crystal ball, I just know it would be nice for once to have a Celebrini type of player on our side.

[Walter Sobchak00]

Top 10 in points:
3 1st overalls
1 4th overall
1 9th overall
1 10th overall

60% are top 10 picks ..

[Harry S Deals]

Top 10 in points:
3 1st overalls
1 4th overall
1 9th overall
1 10th overall

60% are top 10 picks ..

Only 40% are Top 5s?

[MiamiLaw]

Top 10 in points:
3 1st overalls
1 4th overall
1 9th overall
1 10th overall

60% are top 10 picks ..

Only 40% are Top 5s?

Considering how many players are drafted each year, the fact that 40% of the top scorers are Top 5 picks kind of proves how much more likely it is to hit with those picks. No one with any sense is going to say it is impossible because that obviously is contrary to clear evidence, but having a Top 5 pick gives you a significantly better chance to get a needle mover.

Are you saying that is not the case?

[Harry S Deals]

Top 10 in points:
3 1st overalls
1 4th overall
1 9th overall
1 10th overall

60% are top 10 picks ..

Only 40% are Top 5s?

Considering how many players are drafted each year, the fact that 40% of the top scorers are Top 5 picks kind of proves how much more likely it is to hit with those picks. No one with any sense is going to say it is impossible because that obviously is contrary to clear evidence, but having a Top 5 pick gives you a significantly better chance to get a needle mover.

Are you saying that is not the case?

The context is often that you cant win a Cup without Top 5 pick(s).

Some interesting stats showing that a lot this chatter is random...

From '69-'25 (For Centers, Playoff Goals):

4th overall picks have outscored 2nd overall picks by average
22nd overall picks have outscored 5th overall picks

https://morehockeystats.com/drafts/pickstats

I love random data like this. You will consistently see #1 overalls perform well thats gonna clear but the data does not follow the arguement'

In regular goals scored by Center, the 11th overall draft spot has been great....so what does this mean?