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Rickster
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league title

Post by Rickster »

I know I'm getting a little ahead of myself here, but it's fun to project out.

With MI beating NE and Purdue now losing its 3rd in a row, assuming we can take care of U Dub Thursday, we could have a 4 way tie at the top heading into the weekend at 9-1. I think we have 4 tough games left and 5 very winnable ones. We have to play the other first place teams once each (and 2 on the road) and a road game at UCLA. If we can go 2-2 in those 4 tough games and take care of business the other 5 that would put us at 15-3 in the league.

Enough to win?
12xu
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Re: league title

Post by 12xu »

Rickster wrote: 28 Jan 2026 15:31 pm I know I'm getting a little ahead of myself here, but it's fun to project out.

With MI beating NE and Purdue now losing its 3rd in a row, assuming we can take care of U Dub Thursday, we could have a 4 way tie at the top heading into the weekend at 9-1. I think we have 4 tough games left and 5 very winnable ones. We have to play the other first place teams once each (and 2 on the road) and a road game at UCLA. If we can go 2-2 in those 4 tough games and take care of business the other 5 that would put us at 15-3 in the league.

Enough to win?
If they can finish at 17-3 I believe they would get at least a share of the league title. 16-4 might even do it. They still have road games at Nebraska, MSU, USC, UCLA, and Maryland. Home games with Washington, NW, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, and Oregon.
ChiefSTL
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Re: league title

Post by ChiefSTL »

Good discussion. Looking at the other top teams, here's the teams on their remaining schedules that I would consider losable games.

Michigan: @Mich St, @Ohio St, @Purdue, @Illinois, @Iowa, Mich St

Nebraska: Illinois, Purdue, @Iowa, @UCLA

Michigan St: Mich, Illinois, @Purdue, @Indiana, Mich

Illinois: @Nebraska, @Mich St, Indiana, @UCLA, Mich

I think Nebraska has by far the easiest remaining schedule. I'd say our game against them on Sunday could be the make or break game. If we lose that one, I'd say it puts Nebraska squarely in the drivers seat for at least a share of the league title. If we can win that one and go no worse than 2-2 in those remaining 4 tough games, I would think that gets us at least a share of the league. I think you guys are right that 17-3 is probably at least where you have to be.

We need Mich St and Mich to split their games to get them each another loss. Then hopefully Purdue can snap out of it and give each of those other 3 teams another loss.
Rickster
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Re: league title

Post by Rickster »

12xu wrote: 28 Jan 2026 19:12 pm
Rickster wrote: 28 Jan 2026 15:31 pm I know I'm getting a little ahead of myself here, but it's fun to project out.

With MI beating NE and Purdue now losing its 3rd in a row, assuming we can take care of U Dub Thursday, we could have a 4 way tie at the top heading into the weekend at 9-1. I think we have 4 tough games left and 5 very winnable ones. We have to play the other first place teams once each (and 2 on the road) and a road game at UCLA. If we can go 2-2 in those 4 tough games and take care of business the other 5 that would put us at 15-3 in the league.

Enough to win?
If they can finish at 17-3 I believe they would get at least a share of the league title. 16-4 might even do it. They still have road games at Nebraska, MSU, USC, UCLA, and Maryland. Home games with Washington, NW, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, and Oregon.
I totally brain-farted and forgot the league schedule is now 20 games instead of 18, but I agree that 3 losses will put you in first in the end.

you think USC and Maryland are tough games? Neither of those teams is above 500 in league and Maryland only has 1 win.

It seems to me the B10 has become top heavy and the bottom half of the league is really not very good. I doubt there'll be more than 7 teams in the Dance.

I need to look at who has beaten MU and MSU and see what their weakness(es) are. As I've said before, until I see the Illini go into a funk and have bad shooting or get out-rebounded, everyone else has to figure out how to keep us below 80 or figure out how to outscore us.

Assuming we don't screw the pooch tonight, Sunday is going to be YYUUUUUGE.
ChiefSTL
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Re: league title

Post by ChiefSTL »

Rickster wrote: 29 Jan 2026 09:20 am
12xu wrote: 28 Jan 2026 19:12 pm
Rickster wrote: 28 Jan 2026 15:31 pm I know I'm getting a little ahead of myself here, but it's fun to project out.

With MI beating NE and Purdue now losing its 3rd in a row, assuming we can take care of U Dub Thursday, we could have a 4 way tie at the top heading into the weekend at 9-1. I think we have 4 tough games left and 5 very winnable ones. We have to play the other first place teams once each (and 2 on the road) and a road game at UCLA. If we can go 2-2 in those 4 tough games and take care of business the other 5 that would put us at 15-3 in the league.

Enough to win?
If they can finish at 17-3 I believe they would get at least a share of the league title. 16-4 might even do it. They still have road games at Nebraska, MSU, USC, UCLA, and Maryland. Home games with Washington, NW, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, and Oregon.
I totally brain-farted and forgot the league schedule is now 20 games instead of 18, but I agree that 3 losses will put you in first in the end.

you think USC and Maryland are tough games? Neither of those teams is above 500 in league and Maryland only has 1 win.

It seems to me the B10 has become top heavy and the bottom half of the league is really not very good. I doubt there'll be more than 7 teams in the Dance.

I need to look at who has beaten MU and MSU and see what their weakness(es) are. As I've said before, until I see the Illini go into a funk and have bad shooting or get out-rebounded, everyone else has to figure out how to keep us below 80 or figure out how to outscore us.

Assuming we don't screw the pooch tonight, Sunday is going to be YYUUUUUGE.
I think Maryland is bad, but I think USC is a formidable team, especially making the west coast trip there.

You really only think 7 teams get in? I see us at 10 as it stands right now. I think Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State would be in right now with the other top 7. We'll see how it finishes up.
12xu
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Re: league title

Post by 12xu »

Rickster wrote: 29 Jan 2026 09:20 am
12xu wrote: 28 Jan 2026 19:12 pm
Rickster wrote: 28 Jan 2026 15:31 pm I know I'm getting a little ahead of myself here, but it's fun to project out.

With MI beating NE and Purdue now losing its 3rd in a row, assuming we can take care of U Dub Thursday, we could have a 4 way tie at the top heading into the weekend at 9-1. I think we have 4 tough games left and 5 very winnable ones. We have to play the other first place teams once each (and 2 on the road) and a road game at UCLA. If we can go 2-2 in those 4 tough games and take care of business the other 5 that would put us at 15-3 in the league.

Enough to win?
If they can finish at 17-3 I believe they would get at least a share of the league title. 16-4 might even do it. They still have road games at Nebraska, MSU, USC, UCLA, and Maryland. Home games with Washington, NW, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, and Oregon.
I totally brain-farted and forgot the league schedule is now 20 games instead of 18, but I agree that 3 losses will put you in first in the end.

you think USC and Maryland are tough games? Neither of those teams is above 500 in league and Maryland only has 1 win.

It seems to me the B10 has become top heavy and the bottom half of the league is really not very good. I doubt there'll be more than 7 teams in the Dance.

I need to look at who has beaten MU and MSU and see what their weakness(es) are. As I've said before, until I see the Illini go into a funk and have bad shooting or get out-rebounded, everyone else has to figure out how to keep us below 80 or figure out how to outscore us.

Assuming we don't screw the pooch tonight, Sunday is going to be YYUUUUUGE.
No I do not consider the Maryland road game will be tough, even though all Big Ten road games can be contentious. USC at LA will not be a cake walk. Sunday will be a real test for certain.

As I see it right now, Illinois, Michigan, MSU, Nebraska, Purdue, UCLA, and Wisconsin are shoo-ins for the Dance. Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio State could get in if they finish strong, even USC has a chance - their overall record is 15-6.

Illinois can win the league title if they win all their home games, and beat Nebraska, Maryland, USC, and at least one of UCLA or MSU on the road. Not gonna be easy..
Rickster
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Re: league title

Post by Rickster »

12xu wrote: 29 Jan 2026 13:07 pm
Rickster wrote: 29 Jan 2026 09:20 am
12xu wrote: 28 Jan 2026 19:12 pm
Rickster wrote: 28 Jan 2026 15:31 pm I know I'm getting a little ahead of myself here, but it's fun to project out.

With MI beating NE and Purdue now losing its 3rd in a row, assuming we can take care of U Dub Thursday, we could have a 4 way tie at the top heading into the weekend at 9-1. I think we have 4 tough games left and 5 very winnable ones. We have to play the other first place teams once each (and 2 on the road) and a road game at UCLA. If we can go 2-2 in those 4 tough games and take care of business the other 5 that would put us at 15-3 in the league.

Enough to win?
If they can finish at 17-3 I believe they would get at least a share of the league title. 16-4 might even do it. They still have road games at Nebraska, MSU, USC, UCLA, and Maryland. Home games with Washington, NW, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, and Oregon.
I totally brain-farted and forgot the league schedule is now 20 games instead of 18, but I agree that 3 losses will put you in first in the end.

you think USC and Maryland are tough games? Neither of those teams is above 500 in league and Maryland only has 1 win.

It seems to me the B10 has become top heavy and the bottom half of the league is really not very good. I doubt there'll be more than 7 teams in the Dance.

I need to look at who has beaten MU and MSU and see what their weakness(es) are. As I've said before, until I see the Illini go into a funk and have bad shooting or get out-rebounded, everyone else has to figure out how to keep us below 80 or figure out how to outscore us.

Assuming we don't screw the pooch tonight, Sunday is going to be YYUUUUUGE.
No I do not consider the Maryland road game will be tough, even though all Big Ten road games can be contentious. USC at LA will not be a cake walk. Sunday will be a real test for certain.

As I see it right now, Illinois, Michigan, MSU, Nebraska, Purdue, UCLA, and Wisconsin are shoo-ins for the Dance. Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio State could get in if they finish strong, even USC has a chance - their overall record is 15-6.

Illinois can win the league title if they win all their home games, and beat Nebraska, Maryland, USC, and at least one of UCLA or MSU on the road. Not gonna be easy..
agree it won't be easy, and to start you gotta win home games, even if you're a bit "off" ...at least we took care of Wash. I really thought we should've shot 30 FTs last night. Stoya struggled, but it seemed to me he had the ability to get to the rim almost any time he wanted.
12xu
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Re: league title

Post by 12xu »

Big step toward that league title today with the win at Nebraska! 11 wins in a row, and 4 in a row without Boswell. Wagler started slow, but was money in the second half. He finished with 28 points including 10 of 12 FT and 4 treys. He also had 5 assists and 5 rebounds. The Ivisic twins combined for 19 pts on 8 of 10 shooting, and 15 rebounds. The Illini defense dominated inside, holding Nebraska to 18 pts.in the paint. Even though they allowed the Bugeaters to make 15 treys, they did slow them down in the second half. Sandfort only scored 14 pts, not 32 like at Champaign back in December.
Rickster
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Re: league title

Post by Rickster »

poor shooting in the first half and no ability to defend the 3-line ....was totally overcome by good defense in the 2nd half and a huge rebounding and FT advantage. If the refs were calling fouls at the rim, Wagler and Stoya would've shot 30 combined FTs themselves, and if Humrich could actually hit a shot, we would've pulled away that game and won by 20.

fun to watch
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