When does the rebuild start

[An Old Friend]

First let me give my definition of rebuild: Add the right players to be playoff competitive in two years. I didn’t say win a WS. I didn’t say make the playoffs. I mean to actually compete for a playoff spot in a manner that gives the fan base hope for the future.

Certainly Bloom has accomplished a lot. Improved farm system. Traded for a couple of interesting long term prospects (Probably not MLB ready in next couple of years). Added through draft to help team long term. Dumped large contracts to free up payroll and open positions for younger players.

But when does the real rebuild start ( remember my definition)? Does it start with a Donovan trade? Does it earnestly start next year in middle of labor dispute? When do we spend the money we saved?

I had hoped to have a good solid team to compete late 2027 or 2028. But I’m not seeing it.

Never, because it isn't and never has been a rebuild.

They're resetting to a small market model. So many people are living in denial of that reality.

[mattmitchl44]

Step 3 - no reason it can’t be concurrent as well. We as outsiders don’t really know who is available. We only hear rumors based on assumed availability. And payroll can be increased at any time unless ownership chooses not to. Trades for young stars can be pursued too if you’re willing to part with unproven but high ceiling prospects. Our prospects and high rated farm system should be viewed as just another asset, not a way to just keep payroll cheap.

In theory, yes.

However:

(1) "Young stars" are very seldom traded. They almost always only get traded by the smaller market teams who decide they can't afford to extend them. And if they are traded, the biggest market teams - Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc. - will be all-in on acquiring them and drive up their trade price to extremely high levels.

(2) A "young star," like a Fernando Tatis, who might be available (but would probably not waive his NTC to come to St. Louis), isn't much of a "value" acquisition at this point, as his remaining contract is 9 yrs./$286 million (~$32 million AAV). Trading for a player like that is much more like paying full market value for a veteran FA.

(3) You can trade from "excess depth" in the minor league system, but you can't trade from the amount of depth you need to maintain to ensure that you are still matriculating a consistent amount of talent from your minor league system to your ML team. Right now, it's unclear whether the Cardinals have "excess depth" or just enough depth (or even not enough depth) to deliver players over the next 2-3 seasons that the ML roster needs.

[mattmitchl44]

The rebuild is actively underway.

Step 1 - Improve the amount of young, cost controlled talent actually producing at the ML level on the Cardinals roster. This means see Wetherholt make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR player for a year, whether that is in 2026, 2027, etc. See Doyle make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR #2 SP for a year, whether that is in 2027, 2028, etc. See other players like Mathews, J. Baez, Bernal, etc. make the jump to the ML and show signs of at least being solid contributors.

Step 2 - In parallel with Step 1, assess guys already on the ML roster like Winn, Liberatore, Herrera, Burleson, etc. and decide if they are part of the "core" of your team going out 4, 5, etc. years into the future. If so, aggressively try to extend them on long term, relatively low AAV contracts that will keep them with the team into your next window for really trying to compete to win another WS.

Step 3 - After you have achieved Steps 1 and 2, then start to add a small number of veteran "star" players, and other lesser players, from outside the organization on likely expensive, longer term deals after the 2027, 2028, 2029, etc. seasons. You want to have completed Steps 1 and 2 first because (1) you want to know exactly what your holes are so you can spend your limited amount of payroll money most effectively to fill those holes and (2) when you do add these expensive players, you want to make the most of the first 1, 2, 3 years of the contracts you have signed them to, because those first 1, 2, 3 years will likely when they will be at their best and, therefore, the best opportunity for you to leverage their skills to "win now."

Solid points but it sounds like you are not expecting to be competitive until 2029 or after? Am I reading that right?

I think 2028 is the most likely goal. If Wetherholt arrives to start 2026 and Doyle/Mathews arrive in later 2026 to opening day 2027, then I think they are adding considerably after the 2027 season going into 2028 and adding more as necessary after 2028.

So, by your standard, "competing for a playoff spot" - 2028. By mine of being more of a serious WS contender, that might be 2029.

So who are these position players that are going to replace what we have now?? You maintain what we have now isn’t good enough to add FA
But then skip to ‘28 with no Position players on the horizon but proclaim BDW will spend then.
Either the guys here now are good enough to add FA OR you’re replacing most of them by ‘28. How are you doing this
There’s a giant hole in your process. And I already included JJ as a ‘26 starter.

As I keep saying in multiple threads - I think they need to sign guys they have now - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, etc. - for 4 or 5 years so they are here to overlap with Wetherholt, Baez, R. Rodriguez, etc.

The young talent that they have is fine, but it isn't enough for them to be a serious contender on in 2026.

We seem to be going in a circle here.
You say the current young starters aren’t good enough to worry about adding FA bat
Then you say the current young starters should be extended then it’ll be fine adding FA bats
You list JJ, who I already have as a starter….and Baez who could be called up this year.
So by my account we’re there and it’s time to add FA bats
Donny
JJ
Herrera
FA
Burly
FA
Baez
Winn
Scott

The team - and that includes both the hitting and the pitching - isn't well stocked enough with young talent to make this team a contender.

Adding "another bat" doesn't do anything for the pitching.

And - again - you need to actually see Wetherholt, Baez, etc. successfully make the jump to the majors. Neither of them has done so, yet. You can't assume that Wetherholt, Baez, etc. are going to automatically be 3+ fWAR near All-Stars as soon as their rookie seasons.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Step 3 - no reason it can’t be concurrent as well. We as outsiders don’t really know who is available. We only hear rumors based on assumed availability. And payroll can be increased at any time unless ownership chooses not to. Trades for young stars can be pursued too if you’re willing to part with unproven but high ceiling prospects. Our prospects and high rated farm system should be viewed as just another asset, not a way to just keep payroll cheap.

In theory, yes.

However:

(1) "Young stars" are very seldom traded. They almost always only get traded by the smaller market teams who decide they can't afford to extend them. And if they are traded, the biggest market teams - Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc. - will be all-in on acquiring them and drive up their trade price to extremely high levels.

(2) A "young star," like a Fernando Tatis, who might be available (but would probably not waive his NTC to come to St. Louis), isn't much of a "value" acquisition at this point, as his remaining contract is 9 yrs./$286 million (~$32 million AAV). Trading for a player like that is much more like paying full market value for a veteran FA.

(3) You can trade from "excess depth" in the minor league system, but you can't trade from the amount of depth you need to maintain to ensure that you are still matriculating a consistent amount of talent from your minor league system to your ML team. Right now, it's unclear whether the Cardinals have "excess depth" or just enough depth (or even not enough depth) to deliver players over the next 2-3 seasons that the ML roster needs.

(1) It happens and should always be part of the overall strategy to pursue such deals. If our farm is so highly rated now, then what does “big market”have to do with the equation? It’s not about money at that point, it’s about prospect capital, and we should be able to compete, especially if we have prospects that can fill the asking team’s need.

(2) You’re always bringing up Fernando Tatis…?? There are many others out there, as outlined in a similar thread that this one was obviously in response to.

(3) Sure you can. If you’re choosing wisely. If you create a deficiency elsewhere due to acquiring a good young player, then spend, or target trades to fix that area of concern for the future. I’m not saying create a hole on your major league team that can’t be immediately filled. That would obviously be counterproductive.

[mattmitchl44]

(3) Sure you can. If you’re choosing wisely. If you create a deficiency elsewhere due to acquiring a good young player, then spend, or target trades to fix that area of concern for the future. I’m not saying create a hole on your major league team that can’t be immediately filled. That would obviously be counterproductive.

The problem isn't creating a hole on your ML roster. The problem is creating a hole in your minor league player development system.

No doubt when the Cardinals were willing to trade Alcantara and Gallen for Ozuna they thought they had sufficient pitching depth in their minor league system. Since then, however, Flaherty has been the only SP of note that they developed - which ultimately led to them pursing options like Mikolas, Matz, etc. So creating a lack of depth in their SP player development system impacted their ability to compete for years into the future.

[scoutyjones2]

The rebuild is actively underway.

Step 1 - Improve the amount of young, cost controlled talent actually producing at the ML level on the Cardinals roster. This means see Wetherholt make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR player for a year, whether that is in 2026, 2027, etc. See Doyle make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR #2 SP for a year, whether that is in 2027, 2028, etc. See other players like Mathews, J. Baez, Bernal, etc. make the jump to the ML and show signs of at least being solid contributors.

Step 2 - In parallel with Step 1, assess guys already on the ML roster like Winn, Liberatore, Herrera, Burleson, etc. and decide if they are part of the "core" of your team going out 4, 5, etc. years into the future. If so, aggressively try to extend them on long term, relatively low AAV contracts that will keep them with the team into your next window for really trying to compete to win another WS.

Step 3 - After you have achieved Steps 1 and 2, then start to add a small number of veteran "star" players, and other lesser players, from outside the organization on likely expensive, longer term deals after the 2027, 2028, 2029, etc. seasons. You want to have completed Steps 1 and 2 first because (1) you want to know exactly what your holes are so you can spend your limited amount of payroll money most effectively to fill those holes and (2) when you do add these expensive players, you want to make the most of the first 1, 2, 3 years of the contracts you have signed them to, because those first 1, 2, 3 years will likely when they will be at their best and, therefore, the best opportunity for you to leverage their skills to "win now."

I'm not sold on the quality of the

"amount of young, cost controlled talent actually producing at the ML level "

[CorneliusWolfe]

(3) Sure you can. If you’re choosing wisely. If you create a deficiency elsewhere due to acquiring a good young player, then spend, or target trades to fix that area of concern for the future. I’m not saying create a hole on your major league team that can’t be immediately filled. That would obviously be counterproductive.

The problem isn't creating a hole on your ML roster. The problem is creating a hole in your minor league player development system.

No doubt when the Cardinals were willing to trade Alcantara and Gallen for Ozuna they thought they had sufficient pitching depth in their minor league system. Since then, however, Flaherty has been the only SP of note that they developed - which ultimately led to them pursing options like Mikolas, Matz, etc. So creating a lack of depth in their SP player development system impacted their ability to compete for years into the future.

Maybe, perhaps, they chose poorly? Should we go cheap to hedge our bets against our GM making dumb trades?

[CorneliusWolfe]

The rebuild is actively underway.

Step 1 - Improve the amount of young, cost controlled talent actually producing at the ML level on the Cardinals roster. This means see Wetherholt make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR player for a year, whether that is in 2026, 2027, etc. See Doyle make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR #2 SP for a year, whether that is in 2027, 2028, etc. See other players like Mathews, J. Baez, Bernal, etc. make the jump to the ML and show signs of at least being solid contributors.

Step 2 - In parallel with Step 1, assess guys already on the ML roster like Winn, Liberatore, Herrera, Burleson, etc. and decide if they are part of the "core" of your team going out 4, 5, etc. years into the future. If so, aggressively try to extend them on long term, relatively low AAV contracts that will keep them with the team into your next window for really trying to compete to win another WS.

Step 3 - After you have achieved Steps 1 and 2, then start to add a small number of veteran "star" players, and other lesser players, from outside the organization on likely expensive, longer term deals after the 2027, 2028, 2029, etc. seasons. You want to have completed Steps 1 and 2 first because (1) you want to know exactly what your holes are so you can spend your limited amount of payroll money most effectively to fill those holes and (2) when you do add these expensive players, you want to make the most of the first 1, 2, 3 years of the contracts you have signed them to, because those first 1, 2, 3 years will likely when they will be at their best and, therefore, the best opportunity for you to leverage their skills to "win now."

I'm not sold on the quality of the

"amount of young, cost controlled talent actually producing at the ML level "

Neither are most of the rest of us. Guess we should just wait around another decade or two. It will happen!

[scoutyjones2]

The rebuild is actively underway.

Step 1 - Improve the amount of young, cost controlled talent actually producing at the ML level on the Cardinals roster. This means see Wetherholt make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR player for a year, whether that is in 2026, 2027, etc. See Doyle make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR #2 SP for a year, whether that is in 2027, 2028, etc. See other players like Mathews, J. Baez, Bernal, etc. make the jump to the ML and show signs of at least being solid contributors.

Step 2 - In parallel with Step 1, assess guys already on the ML roster like Winn, Liberatore, Herrera, Burleson, etc. and decide if they are part of the "core" of your team going out 4, 5, etc. years into the future. If so, aggressively try to extend them on long term, relatively low AAV contracts that will keep them with the team into your next window for really trying to compete to win another WS.

Step 3 - After you have achieved Steps 1 and 2, then start to add a small number of veteran "star" players, and other lesser players, from outside the organization on likely expensive, longer term deals after the 2027, 2028, 2029, etc. seasons. You want to have completed Steps 1 and 2 first because (1) you want to know exactly what your holes are so you can spend your limited amount of payroll money most effectively to fill those holes and (2) when you do add these expensive players, you want to make the most of the first 1, 2, 3 years of the contracts you have signed them to, because those first 1, 2, 3 years will likely when they will be at their best and, therefore, the best opportunity for you to leverage their skills to "win now."

I'm not sold on the quality of the

"amount of young, cost controlled talent actually producing at the ML level "

Neither are most of the rest of us. Guess we should just wait around another decade or two. It will happen!

Or, it's there and I am wrong. It happens

[Cusecards]

The rebuild is actively underway.

Step 1 - Improve the amount of young, cost controlled talent actually producing at the ML level on the Cardinals roster. This means see Wetherholt make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR player for a year, whether that is in 2026, 2027, etc. See Doyle make the jump to the ML and actually be a 3+ fWAR #2 SP for a year, whether that is in 2027, 2028, etc. See other players like Mathews, J. Baez, Bernal, etc. make the jump to the ML and show signs of at least being solid contributors.

Step 2 - In parallel with Step 1, assess guys already on the ML roster like Winn, Liberatore, Herrera, Burleson, etc. and decide if they are part of the "core" of your team going out 4, 5, etc. years into the future. If so, aggressively try to extend them on long term, relatively low AAV contracts that will keep them with the team into your next window for really trying to compete to win another WS.

Step 3 - After you have achieved Steps 1 and 2, then start to add a small number of veteran "star" players, and other lesser players, from outside the organization on likely expensive, longer term deals after the 2027, 2028, 2029, etc. seasons. You want to have completed Steps 1 and 2 first because (1) you want to know exactly what your holes are so you can spend your limited amount of payroll money most effectively to fill those holes and (2) when you do add these expensive players, you want to make the most of the first 1, 2, 3 years of the contracts you have signed them to, because those first 1, 2, 3 years will likely when they will be at their best and, therefore, the best opportunity for you to leverage their skills to "win now."

Solid assessment.
They have some young guys who look like core players with JJ hopefully becoming another in 2026?
Then you have a few(Gorman/Walker/Scott) who still have to prove themselves or could be history after 2026.
Fingers crossed on some good prospects on the cusp of emerging in 2026.

Thanks.

The message here is simple - fans need to be patient right now and give Step 1 time to happen. Step 1 is the hard part of this rebuild, but it absolutely has to happen or anything else they might do simply won't be enough to get them into the conversation as serious WS contenders in the future.

Welcome!
And “patience” is certainly a key.
I try not to laugh but the same posters who already have “written off” the team for 2/3 years are ALSO the same ones whining over 2026 being used to sort out the roster!

[mattmitchl44]

(3) Sure you can. If you’re choosing wisely. If you create a deficiency elsewhere due to acquiring a good young player, then spend, or target trades to fix that area of concern for the future. I’m not saying create a hole on your major league team that can’t be immediately filled. That would obviously be counterproductive.

The problem isn't creating a hole on your ML roster. The problem is creating a hole in your minor league player development system.

No doubt when the Cardinals were willing to trade Alcantara and Gallen for Ozuna they thought they had sufficient pitching depth in their minor league system. Since then, however, Flaherty has been the only SP of note that they developed - which ultimately led to them pursing options like Mikolas, Matz, etc. So creating a lack of depth in their SP player development system impacted their ability to compete for years into the future.

Maybe, perhaps, they chose poorly? Should we go cheap to hedge our bets against our GM making dumb trades?

Nobody predicts the future with precision.

A team has to keep enough depth to ensure that, notwithstanding their inevitable misses on some prospects they prioritize keeping, they are still going to have enough hits to feed the ML team successfully.

[scoutyjones2]

(3) Sure you can. If you’re choosing wisely. If you create a deficiency elsewhere due to acquiring a good young player, then spend, or target trades to fix that area of concern for the future. I’m not saying create a hole on your major league team that can’t be immediately filled. That would obviously be counterproductive.

The problem isn't creating a hole on your ML roster. The problem is creating a hole in your minor league player development system.

No doubt when the Cardinals were willing to trade Alcantara and Gallen for Ozuna they thought they had sufficient pitching depth in their minor league system. Since then, however, Flaherty has been the only SP of note that they developed - which ultimately led to them pursing options like Mikolas, Matz, etc. So creating a lack of depth in their SP player development system impacted their ability to compete for years into the future.

Maybe, perhaps, they chose poorly? Should we go cheap to hedge our bets against our GM making dumb trades?

Nobody predicts the future with precision.

A team has to keep enough depth to ensure that, notwithstanding their inevitable misses on some prospects they prioritize keeping, they are still going to have enough hits to feed the ML team successfully.

How can you be sure they will have enough hits to feed theL team?

[mattmitchl44]

(3) Sure you can. If you’re choosing wisely. If you create a deficiency elsewhere due to acquiring a good young player, then spend, or target trades to fix that area of concern for the future. I’m not saying create a hole on your major league team that can’t be immediately filled. That would obviously be counterproductive.

The problem isn't creating a hole on your ML roster. The problem is creating a hole in your minor league player development system.

No doubt when the Cardinals were willing to trade Alcantara and Gallen for Ozuna they thought they had sufficient pitching depth in their minor league system. Since then, however, Flaherty has been the only SP of note that they developed - which ultimately led to them pursing options like Mikolas, Matz, etc. So creating a lack of depth in their SP player development system impacted their ability to compete for years into the future.

Maybe, perhaps, they chose poorly? Should we go cheap to hedge our bets against our GM making dumb trades?

Nobody predicts the future with precision.

A team has to keep enough depth to ensure that, notwithstanding their inevitable misses on some prospects they prioritize keeping, they are still going to have enough hits to feed the ML team successfully.

How can you be sure they will have enough hits to feed theL team?

Presumably you have an understanding of how likely you think each of your prospects is to "hit" and stick at the ML level (few if any prospects are 100%).

As I've gotten to before, the Cardinals need to deliver about an average of three successful prospects to the ML team every year. If you have six "ML-ready" prospects, each of whom you give a 50-50 chance of hitting and sticking the in majors the following season, maybe you have enough depth for the next year. More realistically, you probably have four guys who are 50-50 and several other prospect who are less than 50-50 because they are younger and likely need another year of development, but who could surprise and be that third success.

And then you have to do that year after year.

It's all probabilities, never certainties.

[ScotchMIrish]

It depends on how far down the teams as to how long the rebuild takes. 2 years is likely optimistic. It took the Royals 8 seasons including 3 100+ loss seasons to have a winning record after the 2015 world series.

[scoutyjones2]

(3) Sure you can. If you’re choosing wisely. If you create a deficiency elsewhere due to acquiring a good young player, then spend, or target trades to fix that area of concern for the future. I’m not saying create a hole on your major league team that can’t be immediately filled. That would obviously be counterproductive.

The problem isn't creating a hole on your ML roster. The problem is creating a hole in your minor league player development system.

No doubt when the Cardinals were willing to trade Alcantara and Gallen for Ozuna they thought they had sufficient pitching depth in their minor league system. Since then, however, Flaherty has been the only SP of note that they developed - which ultimately led to them pursing options like Mikolas, Matz, etc. So creating a lack of depth in their SP player development system impacted their ability to compete for years into the future.

Maybe, perhaps, they chose poorly? Should we go cheap to hedge our bets against our GM making dumb trades?

Nobody predicts the future with precision.

A team has to keep enough depth to ensure that, notwithstanding their inevitable misses on some prospects they prioritize keeping, they are still going to have enough hits to feed the ML team successfully.

How can you be sure they will have enough hits to feed theL team?

Presumably you have an understanding of how likely you think each of your prospects is to "hit" and stick at the ML level (few if any prospects are 100%).

As I've gotten to before, the Cardinals need to deliver about an average of three successful prospects to the ML team every year. If you have six "ML-ready" prospects, each of whom you give a 50-50 chance of hitting and sticking the in majors the following season, maybe you have enough depth for the next year. More realistically, you probably have four guys who are 50-50 and several other prospect who are less than 50-50 because they are younger and likely need another year of development, but who could surprise and be that third success.

And then you have to do that year after year.

It's all probabilities, never certainties.

Do you know what the actual percentage of minor leaguers that ever become MLB players are?

Many players aspire to make it to the top level of professional baseball, but the odds can be daunting. Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed.

[mattmitchl44]

(3) Sure you can. If you’re choosing wisely. If you create a deficiency elsewhere due to acquiring a good young player, then spend, or target trades to fix that area of concern for the future. I’m not saying create a hole on your major league team that can’t be immediately filled. That would obviously be counterproductive.

The problem isn't creating a hole on your ML roster. The problem is creating a hole in your minor league player development system.

No doubt when the Cardinals were willing to trade Alcantara and Gallen for Ozuna they thought they had sufficient pitching depth in their minor league system. Since then, however, Flaherty has been the only SP of note that they developed - which ultimately led to them pursing options like Mikolas, Matz, etc. So creating a lack of depth in their SP player development system impacted their ability to compete for years into the future.

Maybe, perhaps, they chose poorly? Should we go cheap to hedge our bets against our GM making dumb trades?

Nobody predicts the future with precision.

A team has to keep enough depth to ensure that, notwithstanding their inevitable misses on some prospects they prioritize keeping, they are still going to have enough hits to feed the ML team successfully.

How can you be sure they will have enough hits to feed theL team?

Presumably you have an understanding of how likely you think each of your prospects is to "hit" and stick at the ML level (few if any prospects are 100%).

As I've gotten to before, the Cardinals need to deliver about an average of three successful prospects to the ML team every year. If you have six "ML-ready" prospects, each of whom you give a 50-50 chance of hitting and sticking the in majors the following season, maybe you have enough depth for the next year. More realistically, you probably have four guys who are 50-50 and several other prospect who are less than 50-50 because they are younger and likely need another year of development, but who could surprise and be that third success.

And then you have to do that year after year.

It's all probabilities, never certainties.

Do you know what the actual percentage of minor leaguers that ever become MLB players are?

Many players aspire to make it to the top level of professional baseball, but the odds can be daunting. Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed.

Sure, the success rate isn't high.

Nonetheless, the Cardinals ML payroll is such that they need ~18 of their 26 roster positions to be filled with, effectively, pre-ARB or ARB guys - guys within their six years of team control who aren't being paid at FA rates. At full market value rates, they can only afford to have ~8 guys like Gray, Arenado, Mikolas, Matz, Contreras, Fedde, etc. at a time.

18 guys over six "classes" means an average of three rookies successfully joining the ML team per year.