JJ will hit

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cardinalsfever44
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by cardinalsfever44 »

sp25 wrote: 30 Dec 2025 16:49 pm
Goldfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 12:11 pm “Comparing minor league K rates among former + current
@Cardinals
top prospects:

Nolan Gorman — 27.3%
Jordan Walker — 22.1%
Dylan Carlson — 21.3%
Oscar Taveras — 13.1%

Current top prospects:

JJ Wetherholt — 14.1%
Rainiel Rodriguez — 16.3%”
Would not have expected that K rate for Taveras. What might have been
Even Taveras was a dud in his short showing in the majors. In 248 plate appearances, he hit .239 with a .590 OPS while also playing pretty poor defense. He did only strike out in 14.9% of his MLB at bats though, so that was consistent with his minor league stats.

The Cards could really use a guy that just hits the ground running and turns into an absolute stud. It has been a long time and we are certainly due.
AZ_Cardsfan
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by AZ_Cardsfan »

I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?
Goldfan
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by Goldfan »

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?
He’s not a Pujols….but he appears to be much better than most of the posers we’ve been bringing up for a decade.
craviduce
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by craviduce »

Goldfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:47 pm
AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?
He’s not a Pujols….but he appears to be much better than most of the posers we’ve been bringing up for a decade.
100% agree there, Goldfan
CorneliusWolfe
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

Carp4Cy wrote: 30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love
He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.
CorneliusWolfe
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

Goldfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 12:11 pm “Comparing minor league K rates among former + current
@Cardinals
top prospects:

Nolan Gorman — 27.3%
Jordan Walker — 22.1%
Dylan Carlson — 21.3%
Oscar Taveras — 13.1%

Current top prospects:

JJ Wetherholt — 14.1%
Rainiel Rodriguez — 16.3%”
Of all the complex metrics thrown out around here, these simple numbers might end up being more telling than any of the others.
cardstatman
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by cardstatman »

For context: miLB strikeout rates for players on Cards 40-man roster

10.2% Fermin
10.4% Arenado
11.0% Church
12.4% Prieto
12.5% Torres
14.1% Wetherholt
16.0% Scott
17.3% Burleson
17.8% Donovan
17.9% Nootbar
18.4% Bernal
19.9% Herrera
20.2% Winn
22.1% Walker
22.9% Pages
22.9% Crooks
23.7% Saggese
27.3% Gorman
29.5% Baez (20.6% in 2025)
AZ_Cardsfan
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by AZ_Cardsfan »

Goldfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:47 pm
AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?
He’s not a Pujols….but he appears to be much better than most of the posers we’ve been bringing up for a decade.
I agree. I am no professional scout but I prefer seeing the hit tool rating higher than the power number. Both of course is wonderful. JJ is 65 hit 55 power.

I really hope that holds.
TheFantasyStud
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by TheFantasyStud »

I’m almost as excited to see how Rainel performs this year as JJ.
If Walker can just figure it out and Scott II can become at least a league average hitter our future looks bright.
An Old Friend
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by An Old Friend »

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?
Pedroia averaged 5 bWAR per year and won rookie of the year & an MVP.

Zobrist wasn’t a regular until he was 28. That would be an awful outcome. That would mean he’s a really good player for someone else after being a bust for the Cardinals.

Knoblauch also averaged 5 bWAR per season from age 22-30

So yeah, pretty sure people would be thrilled if JJ wins rookie of the year, makes 4 All Star teams, and maybe a title or two along the way!
Ozziesfan41
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by Ozziesfan41 »

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?
You can bet the first time he has a slump the we hate prospects and love over priced mid tier aging veterans crowd will be swarming in to say he’s another over hyped cardinals prospect the cheap ownership are trying to sell the rebuild around
Cardinals1964
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by Cardinals1964 »

Batting titles and George Brett HOF comparisons.
Right on.
AnExParrot
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by AnExParrot »

CorneliusWolfe wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:52 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: 30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love
He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.
He got burned on the Dylan Carlson train.
CorneliusWolfe
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

AnExParrot wrote: 31 Dec 2025 09:37 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:52 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: 30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love
He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.
He got burned on the Dylan Carlson train.
Haha I guess so. Must’ve been heartbreaking.

I’ll admit I was fooled by DC myself.
Goldfan
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by Goldfan »

CorneliusWolfe wrote: 31 Dec 2025 09:45 am
AnExParrot wrote: 31 Dec 2025 09:37 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:52 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: 30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love
He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.
He got burned on the Dylan Carlson train.
Haha I guess so. Must’ve been heartbreaking.

I’ll admit I was fooled by DC myself.
DC looked the part, but was physically weak and no drive
CorneliusWolfe
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Re: JJ will hit

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

Goldfan wrote: 31 Dec 2025 09:58 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 31 Dec 2025 09:45 am
AnExParrot wrote: 31 Dec 2025 09:37 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 30 Dec 2025 18:52 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: 30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love
He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.
He got burned on the Dylan Carlson train.
Haha I guess so. Must’ve been heartbreaking.

I’ll admit I was fooled by DC myself.
DC looked the part, but was physically weak and no drive
The “no drive” infers mental weakness too. That’s why I find it hard to get overly excited about prospects in general. There are plenty of metrics and peripherals that suggest high level success, but without a metric that measures mental toughness, resiliency, and drive to succeed, the other stuff can be completely meaningless. It’s why Donovan is a solid player and DC and Walker are busts.

I know they have to evaluate physical prowess and skillset somehow, but maybe they need to invest more of that scouting money into more advanced psychological analysis. Every job has talented people that don’t perform to their capabilities or intelligence but are instead carried by the harder working mentally stable people.
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