I feel I must admit that I've been wrong on Cardinals payroll of the past

[dugoutrex]

I’ll always wonder what the last 10 years of Cardinals baseball would’ve been if Oscar didn’t die in the 2015 offseason. Maybe there’s a thread in the multiverse that has that outcome. Would be cool to see. Might have a completely different view on the Mo era.

If OT doesn’t die, we never trade for Jason Heyward. Then we don’t make the push to re-sign him and he chooses the Cubs. This caused Mo to panic and offer David Price a record contract. Price 180s at the last minute for Boston instead so Mo panics again and gives Mike Leake 5/$80m with NTC. This means we have no money to retain Lance Lynn the following offseason.

Then in the 2017 offseason, Mo tries to get revenge on Chicago by overpaying Fowler to come here to play CF. Another silly NTC and 5 year deal.

We probably still end up with the Cecil and Matz bad contracts. But it’s easy to see a version where we have OT and LL instead of Leake and Fowler the back half of the 2010s (maybe beyond). Then maybe the trades of Goldy and Arenado put us over the top. Instead, Mo did these but we never had any good homegrown SP or OFs to supplement.

I think Oscar would have turned out like Jordan Walker

[Cardinals4Life]

How is it wasting money to spend some money on this season and try to win?

This has been discussed many times before.

It's not about the $$$ spent this year. It's about the fact to spend $$$ this year to the level that you suggest and to "try to win" in 2026, they would almost certainly have to go out and sign a Dylan Cease (7 yrs./$210 million), Pete Alonso (5 yrs./$155 million), Kyle Schwarber (5 yrs./$150 million), etc.

Hence, your effort to "try to win" in 2026 would almost certainly be in vain AND you would likely end up sinking the future 2028, 2029, etc. teams with what will then be bad contracts when they might otherwise actually be ready to "try to win" with a much better core of young cost controlled players.

Then go offer some lucrative 1 year deals. Offer Suarez 1 year/35 M. Be hard to pass that up AND have the chance to become a free agent again next year. (Just an out of the box example.)

Then you are just spending an obscene amount of money in 2026 to not be competitive. If you are overpaying by that much for good but not great players (like a Suarez), how is that anything other than window dressing for a non-competitive 2026 season?

Better to take shots with guys like Dustin May for a lot less but who have upside potential to outplay their contract and be tradable in 2026.

Yeah, Suarez's 49 bombs wouldn't help.

It's very unlikely that Suarez approaches that in 2026.

FG's models predict him to hit just .230/.306/.450 with 30-33 HRs and 2.5 fWAR in 2026.

Why? He literally just hit that.
I forgot, your predictions are a much better tool than actual performance. Thanks for the reminder. Lol

Did you expect Goldschmidt and Arenado to repeat their 2022 seasons in 2023? Because that didn't happen either.

Suarez will be good for 30+ guaranteed.

FG's models say 30.

But 30 is a long way from 49.

Cards have no one close who could provide 30+.

It is because of the HR's he hit as well as the one that you predict
that I think the only way he signs a 1 year is if that is his only offer.
He's not young enough to want to do that and his season was about as
he can do. IMO, he'd take a higher total value contract if 2 are offered.

I agree, but why not take a shot. 1 year/40M!! Lol

[ecleme22]

After looking back through the last 2 decades it's apparent that the Cards have spent money. They're pretty consistently between about 9th to 14th or so. I was a bit surprised at this. Still, payroll is way down right now for no real reason, but they aren't the cheapskates that I thought they were, at least in past years. So this is a mea culpa for not researching sooner and pushing an untruth however unintentional. This probably helps explain why they contended for 2 decades too. So, pile on if you will but the numbers don't lie. They have spent solidly in the upper middle of payroll. The demographics of payroll are changing though. It will require more payroll to stay relevant and I hope after this aberration they'll at least revert back to their norm.

Payroll isn't down "for no real reason".

You're right, there is a reason. The owners don't want to compete this season. Good enough?

It’s a rebuild. Look it up.

It's planning to fail in order fore DeWitt to not have expensive contracts going into the CBA and probable lockout. It's also an excuse to get cheap when everyone knows they have the money to add some premium players and try to win.

No, it’s a rebuild.

During a rebuild, payroll decreases, vets are traded for prospects, etc. This is basic rebuild 101…

I look forward to you writing a similar OP to this one in a few years stating that you were once again wrong.

When do the consistently winning teams have their "rebuilds"? This is what you and your ilk are doing...You're excusing a billionaire from putting decent product on the field in some mythical quest for temporary greatness down the road. There's plenty of payroll to put a decent product on the field "for the fans". You've been fooled into this scam as others have. Tanking a team only, and I mean only, benefits the billionaire owners. To make matters even worse, that dreamy pot of gold at the end of the rainbow isn't even guaranteed to be there. Keep up the good work though.

I would say most if not every 2025 playoff team experienced a ‘reset’ or ‘rebuild’ at lease once in the last 15-20 years.

As of now, youre kind of embarrassing yourself.

I’ve seriously never thought I would see this much whining over Gray, Contreras, Arenado and Donovan.

Bloom just flipped Gray and WC for TWO major league starters and 4 prospects. We traded 3 years of total control for potentially 30 years of control. And as much as I loved WC, we have internal 1b options.

You already admitted you were wrong about the Cards being cheap (see OP). This is just another example of you being wrong…

You're simply wrong. The top spending teams don't "reset". If they're out of the running in a season they might jettison some veterans or others but they always replace them. Gray, Contreras and Donovan are in the top 4 of the Cards players. Why wouldn't somebody complain if they wanted to watch a competitive team? Are you down for watching 80 - 100 losses? I certainly am not. I've attempted to explain that they were middle of the pack in payroll, considering they drew 3 million a lot of that time, one could say that they should have escalated payroll even more but the fact is they were one of the more successful teams for pretty close to two decades and they did it without gutting payroll and selling off all their top tier talent. So while they aren't as cheap as Cincy, Miami and others (which I attempted to state and reiterate) they still have no reason to gut the team and lose on purpose for years. It bastardizes the game of baseball. And in fact any sport where some teams intentionally lose. It's just wrong.

Every good team in need of a reset, resets.

And every good team invests in their farm. From Tampa to LAD.

Bloom is investing in the farm. And it shows.

Now when a team resets/rebuilds, maybe the most important thing isn’t “making sure we have to spend the money from Mikolas’s contract!” That’s dumb.

[CCard]

After looking back through the last 2 decades it's apparent that the Cards have spent money. They're pretty consistently between about 9th to 14th or so. I was a bit surprised at this. Still, payroll is way down right now for no real reason, but they aren't the cheapskates that I thought they were, at least in past years. So this is a mea culpa for not researching sooner and pushing an untruth however unintentional. This probably helps explain why they contended for 2 decades too. So, pile on if you will but the numbers don't lie. They have spent solidly in the upper middle of payroll. The demographics of payroll are changing though. It will require more payroll to stay relevant and I hope after this aberration they'll at least revert back to their norm.

Payroll isn't down "for no real reason".

You're right, there is a reason. The owners don't want to compete this season. Good enough?

It’s a rebuild. Look it up.

It's planning to fail in order fore DeWitt to not have expensive contracts going into the CBA and probable lockout. It's also an excuse to get cheap when everyone knows they have the money to add some premium players and try to win.

No, it’s a rebuild.

During a rebuild, payroll decreases, vets are traded for prospects, etc. This is basic rebuild 101…

I look forward to you writing a similar OP to this one in a few years stating that you were once again wrong.

When do the consistently winning teams have their "rebuilds"? This is what you and your ilk are doing...You're excusing a billionaire from putting decent product on the field in some mythical quest for temporary greatness down the road. There's plenty of payroll to put a decent product on the field "for the fans". You've been fooled into this scam as others have. Tanking a team only, and I mean only, benefits the billionaire owners. To make matters even worse, that dreamy pot of gold at the end of the rainbow isn't even guaranteed to be there. Keep up the good work though.

I would say most if not every 2025 playoff team experienced a ‘reset’ or ‘rebuild’ at lease once in the last 15-20 years.

As of now, youre kind of embarrassing yourself.

I’ve seriously never thought I would see this much whining over Gray, Contreras, Arenado and Donovan.

Bloom just flipped Gray and WC for TWO major league starters and 4 prospects. We traded 3 years of total control for potentially 30 years of control. And as much as I loved WC, we have internal 1b options.

You already admitted you were wrong about the Cards being cheap (see OP). This is just another example of you being wrong…

You're simply wrong. The top spending teams don't "reset". If they're out of the running in a season they might jettison some veterans or others but they always replace them. Gray, Contreras and Donovan are in the top 4 of the Cards players. Why wouldn't somebody complain if they wanted to watch a competitive team? Are you down for watching 80 - 100 losses? I certainly am not. I've attempted to explain that they were middle of the pack in payroll, considering they drew 3 million a lot of that time, one could say that they should have escalated payroll even more but the fact is they were one of the more successful teams for pretty close to two decades and they did it without gutting payroll and selling off all their top tier talent. So while they aren't as cheap as Cincy, Miami and others (which I attempted to state and reiterate) they still have no reason to gut the team and lose on purpose for years. It bastardizes the game of baseball. And in fact any sport where some teams intentionally lose. It's just wrong.

Every good team in need of a reset, resets.

And every good team invests in their farm. From Tampa to LAD.

Bloom is investing in the farm. And it shows.

Now when a team resets/rebuilds, maybe the most important thing isn’t “making sure we have to spend the money from Mikolas’s contract!” That’s dumb.

It's dumb to put a decent product on the field for the fans to enjoy. Noted.

[WaltsSuccessor]

I’ll always wonder what the last 10 years of Cardinals baseball would’ve been if Oscar didn’t die in the 2015 offseason. Maybe there’s a thread in the multiverse that has that outcome. Would be cool to see. Might have a completely different view on the Mo era.

If OT doesn’t die, we never trade for Jason Heyward. Then we don’t make the push to re-sign him and he chooses the Cubs. This caused Mo to panic and offer David Price a record contract. Price 180s at the last minute for Boston instead so Mo panics again and gives Mike Leake 5/$80m with NTC. This means we have no money to retain Lance Lynn the following offseason.

Then in the 2017 offseason, Mo tries to get revenge on Chicago by overpaying Fowler to come here to play CF. Another silly NTC and 5 year deal.

We probably still end up with the Cecil and Matz bad contracts. But it’s easy to see a version where we have OT and LL instead of Leake and Fowler the back half of the 2010s (maybe beyond). Then maybe the trades of Goldy and Arenado put us over the top. Instead, Mo did these but we never had any good homegrown SP or OFs to supplement.

I think Oscar would have turned out like Jordan Walker

Maybe, maybe not. Point is - we’ll never know.

Another fun one, if Mo just gives Lackey the second year he wanted after 2015 (where he played for the league minimum) then do the Cubs still win the WS in 2016? Would’ve at least saved us from the Mike Leake experience.